The United States sought on Thursday to further choke off funding sources for Iranian-backed Hezbollah, imposing sanctions on its representative to Iran, as well as a major financier and his five companies in Europe, West Africa and the Middle East.

The U.S. Treasury said Mohammad Ibrahim Bazzi was a Hezbollah financier operating through Belgium, Lebanon and Iraq, and was a close associate of Gambia’s former president Yahya Jammeh, who is accused of acquiring vast wealth during his decades-long rule.

It also imposed sanctions on Hezbollah’s representative to Iran, Abdallah Safi Al-Din, who it said served as an interlocutor between Hezbollah and Iran on financial issues.

The department said it had blacklisted Belgian energy services conglomerate Global Trading Group; Gambia-based petroleum company Euro African Group; and Lebanon-based Africa Middle East Investment Holding, Premier Investment Group SAL Offshore and import-export group Car Escort Services. All were designated because they are owned or controlled by Bazzi, the Treasury said.

“The savage and depraved acts of one of Hezbollah’s most prominent financiers cannot be tolerated,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.

“This administration will expose and disrupt Hezbollah and Iranian terror networks at every turn, including those with ties to the Central Bank of Iran,” he said.

The sanctions are among a slew of fresh measures aimed at Iran and Hezbollah since U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal last week.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is set to outline in a speech in Washington on Monday plans by the United States to build a coalition to look closer at what it sees as Iran’s “destabilizing activities,” spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reporters at the State Department.

In one of the biggest moves this week aimed at clamping down on Iran’s overseas operations, the Treasury sanctioned Iran’s central bank governor, Valiollah Seif.

On Wednesday, the United States, backed by Gulf States, imposed additional sanctions on Hezbollah’s top two leaders, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Naim Qassem.
…

The United Nations is forecasting that the global economy will expand by more than 3 percent this year and next year — but it warns that increasing risks could trigger “a shock to investment and trade” and a sharp drop to 1.8 percent growth in 2019.

The U.N.’s mid-year report on the World Economic Situation and Prospects launched Thursday says growth in the world economy is surpassing expectations, reflecting further economic expansion in developed countries and broadly favorable investment conditions.

However, the report said, “downside risks” have increased including “a rise in the probability of trade conflicts between major economies.”

Dawn Holland, chief of the U.N.’s Global Economic Monitoring Branch, cited the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs in January and proposed new tariffs against China as well as the renegotiation of the U.S. trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, which has left “a void of uncertainty.”

There are also negotiations between the European Union and the United States partly linked to tariffs on steel, she said, and an increasing number of disputes have been raised with the World Trade Organization over the last six months.

The report said other factors also pose risks including uncertainty over monetary policy, increasing debt levels, and greater geopolitical tensions including in the Korean peninsula, Middle East, South China Sea and Ukraine.

But the U.N.’s assessment was generally upbeat citing continued economic improvements over the last several months including accelerating wage growth, improved investment prospects, and the short-term impact of the U.S. fiscal stimulus package.

“Many commodity-exporting countries will also benefit from the higher level of energy and metal prices,” the report said.

According to the U.N., world growth is now forecast to reach 3.2 percent in both 2018 and 2019, up from its forecast in December of 3 percent growth this year and 3.1 percent next year.

While many countries will experience growth, the report said output is expected to decline in central Africa and southern Africa, the report said. And the forecast for economies in transition including Russia and the world’s poorest countries have been revised “marginally downward” for 2018.

Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Elliott Harris cautioned, however, that “there is a strong need not to become complacent in response to upward trending headline figures.”

The report not only highlights the risks to economic growth but “the need to urgently address a number of policy challenges, including threats to the multilateral trading system, high inequality and the renewed rise in carbon emissions,” he told a press conference launching the report.

And it warned that if trade tensions and barriers were to “spiral over the course of 2018, through widespread retaliations and extensive disruption to global value chains, this could trigger a sharp drop in global investment and trade.”
…

President Donald Trump says the United States has not “folded” in trade negotiations with China as both countries get set for another round of meetings.

“We have not seen China’s demands yet,” Trump tweeted Wednesday. “The U.S. has very little to give because it has given so much over the years. China has much to give.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin opens two days of talks in Washington with Chinese officials Thursday.

“These meetings are a continuation of the talks held in Beijing two weeks ago and will focus on rebalancing the United States-China bilateral economic relationship,” the White House says.

They are also aimed at avoiding a full-blown trade war after the U.S. and China exchanged tariffs in March.

Trump told the country Wednesday that the U.S. has been losing hundreds of billions of dollars a year and countless U.S. manufacturing jobs because of its trade deficit with China.

But despite his tough talks on China, Trump wants to rescue China’s giant technology company ZTE, puzzling many lawmakers.

ZTE was forced to close one of its plants and cease major operations after the U.S. Commerce Department barred it from buying American-made components for its consumer products. ZTE had been using those components in goods sold to Iran and North Korea, a violation of U.S. trade embargoes.

The president said earlier this week that “too many jobs” were being lost in China because of ZTE’s problems, and he ordered the Commerce Department to help it “get back into business, fast.”

Republican Senator Marco Rubio told VOA that the Commerce Department’s sanctions on ZTE are “a law enforcement function that really shouldn’t have anything to do with trade. … Chinese telecom companies are agents of the Chinese government. They don’t just steal national security secrets, they steal commercial secrets.”

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi also talked to VOA, saying Trump does not know how to fight when it comes to balancing trade issues.

“The president talked big about wanting to have a fair trade relationship with China and folded immediately on the ZTE issue.”

Pelosi said Trump’s motives over ZTE are hard to understand, but said he will face serious opposition in Congress if he tries to use ZTE as a bargaining chip.

Michael Bowman and VOA Mandarin contributed to this report.
…

President Mauricio Macri said Wednesday that Argentina’s currency crisis is over, speaking as the country’s currency rebounded somewhat and prices for its stocks and bonds rose.

Macri announced last week that Argentina was seeking a financing deal with the International Monetary Fund following a sharp drop in the peso. The decision brought back haunting memories for Argentines who blame the IMF for introducing policies that led to the country’s 2001 economic implosion.

Argentina was forced to impose interest rate hikes and to tighten the fiscal deficit target to try to halt the devaluation of its currency, which has lost about 25 percent of its value in recent weeks.

The peso hit a new all-time low of 25.30 to the U.S. dollar Monday. But it rose at 24.8 per dollar Wednesday and Argentine stocks and bonds rose.

Macri said his government thinks it has “overcome” the turbulence over the currency. He also said he will demand “an intelligent” deal with the IMF.

“It’s important to recognize the moment of nervousness and anguish lived by a sector of the population,” Macri told reporters at the presidential palace.

“There was fear and anguish. Today, we have a different climate, but we must take a balance of what happened.”

The economic turbulence highlighted the frailty of Argentina’s economy despite austerity measures imposed by Macri, a conservative who has vowed to boost growth and curb Argentina’s high inflation.

Macri’s government has requested a “high-access stand-by arrangement” from the IMF to meet its debt obligations without risking a disruption of economic growth.

“With this deal, we will potentialize the future of Argentines,” Macri said.

The crisis 17 years ago resulted in one of every five Argentines being unemployed and millions sliding into poverty. The peso, which had been tied to the dollar, lost nearly 70 percent of its value.

Many Argentines have blamed the IMF since then for its role in Argentina’s record debt default of more than $100 billion.

A survey by Argentine pollsters D’Alessio Irol/Berensztein said 75 percent of Argentines feel that seeking assistance from the IMF is a bad move. The survey of 1,077 people in early May had a margin of error of three percentage points.
…

Amsterdam unveiled far-reaching plans Wednesday to rein in tourism, reflecting the dissatisfaction of many residents who feel the city’s historic center has been overrun.

The leading Green-Left and other parties negotiating a new municipal government after March elections vowed to return “Balance to the City,” in a document of that name seen by Reuters.

“The positive sides of tourism such as employment and city revenues are being more and more overshadowed by the negative consequences,” including trash and noise pollution, the document said.

Changes the document outlines include curtailing “amusement transportation” such as multiperson “beer bikes”; cracking down on alcohol use in boats on the canals; further restricting Airbnb and other home rentals; and a large tax hike.

The plans announced Wednesday also include creating an inventory of all commercial beds in the city to try to cap various sectors, such as those on cruise ships and in hotels.

“I’m very happy that the city is now finally taking action, because residents have been asking for it for a very long time,” said Bert Nap of neighborhood organization d’Oude Binnenstad, in the historic center.

“What I’m worried about is that this package of measures is so drastic that there will be a lot of lawsuits and political resistance, which will cost a lot of time.”

He said the city was suffering from too many visitors in general, which had the effect of changing the character of the center into one big tourist attraction. He also said some unruly, drunken tourists were making the city center an unattractive place for local residents.

Edgy lure

With a population of around 800,000, the city expects 18 million tourists in 2018, an increase of 20 percent from 2016 levels, many drawn by an edgy atmosphere generated by readily available soft drugs and the “red light” sex zone.

Anti-tourist and anti-expatriate sentiment have been steadily on the rise in Amsterdam, as both are blamed in part for helping drive housing prices increasingly out of the reach of ordinary Dutch people.

The average apartment in Amsterdam cost 407,000 euros ($475,000) in 2017, an increase of around 12 percent from 2016 levels, according to national real estate association NVM.

The change of emphasis has already started from national government over the past years, to try to dissuade visitors from the more earthy pastimes the city is famous for.

Advertising campaigns have focused on the city’s canals, the Anne Frank House and the museums packed with the greatest works of Van Gogh and Rembrandt.

Legislators have helped the rebranding, shutting a third of the city’s brothels in 2008 and starting a program in 2011 to close marijuana cafes located near schools.

“Amsterdam is a city to live and work in — it’s only a tourist destination in the second place,” the municipal document said.
…

Malaysia’s new government to scrutinize past economic policies under the now ousted Najib Razak administration is prompting analysts to warn of a slide in investment and growth in one of Southeast Asia’s top economies.

The new leadership has appointed a group of prominent citizens, an eminent persons group, to come up with a new policy agenda within the next 100 days that will, among other things, review mega investment projects that have been key drivers of economic growth.

The new government has also established a special task force as corruption allegations over the abuse of funds in a sovereign wealth fund set up by Najib, and ordered a review of political representation on Malaysia’s largest government investment firms, including the main sovereign and pension funds.

Leading the eminent persons group is a former finance minister, Daim Zainuddin, and it includes a former central bank governor, Zeti Akhtar Aziz, a former president the Malaysian energy giant, Petronas, an economist and a leading businessman.

Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist for Capital Economics, an economic research group in London, says a key issue is whether Malaysia’s new government will remain united in the face of moves toward economic reforms.

“[The coalition] when it was formed was very much a coalition against Najib rather than anything pro-reform. So the first real test they have got is to see if there is enough cohesion within that coalition to push through [economic] reforms,” Leather told VOA.

A key campaign promise by new Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s Pakatan Harapan — or Alliance of Hope — was to abolish a value added, goods and services tax.

While the tax, known as GST, was unpopular among voters, analysts say the revenue enabled the government to diversify its tax base from an over-reliance on corporate tax and the oil industry.

Immediately after the vote, financial markets reacted nervously to the scrapping of the tax and questions of the impact the measure would have on the government’s budget. Contributions from the GST have reached $10.6 billion.

Malaysian Finance Ministry officials have not said when the tax would be abolished, and analysts predicted a tough road ahead for the plan.

“To raise as much money as the GST while getting rid of the GST is going to be quite difficult. I don’t think that they can really go ahead and form a U-turn a d decide to keep it — so it’s going to be quite tricky managing it for them,” Leather said.

Analysts say financial markets are also closely watching steps in the new investigations centered on former leader Najib, accused of siphoning off billions of dollars from the 1MDB wealth fund. He firmly denies the charges. The U.S. Department of Justice alleges some $4.5 billion was misappropriated from the 1MDB, originally set up by Najib.

At least six countries, including the U.S., Singapore and Switzerland, are investigating the allegations of corruption. The new government has vowed to undertake fresh investigations into the case. Last weekend Malaysian immigration authorities refused Najib and his family the right to leave the country pending the investigations.

Unlike abolishing the sales tax, Leather predicts the corruption investigations will have a positive effect on the economy.

“Hopefully what it will do is it will bring to light a lot of the problems, institutional problems that have been holding Malaysia’s economy back over the past few years. It would have been shocking had Najib been able to steal this election,” he said.

But observers say a review of the multi-billion dollar mega projects, especially those undertaken by China, may have a major impact. The Chinese have invested more than $3.38 billion in Malaysia — and China is the leading foreign investor ahead of the U.S., Japan and Singapore. Chinese investments include manufacturing, real estate and sovereign wealth fund bonds.

China has also supported rail infrastructure in Malaysia that is linked to the One Belt One Road, a Beijing initiative that envisions building a network extending throughout Asia.

Analysts say there is a risk that investment — a key driver of growth — may fall sharply over the next two years.

Economic growth, with quarterly figures due this week, has been expanding at between 5.5 percent and 6 percent over the past year, aided by exports and foreign investment.

During the election campaign, Mahathir rallied against Chinese investment and promised a detailed review of projects involving foreign countries.

Pavida Pananond, a professor of international business at Bangkok’s Thammasat University, also predicts that Malaysia faces key economic challenges, especially after more than 60 years of government led by the monolithic United Malay National Organization coalition.

Pavida, in emailed comments to VOA, said it “remains to be seen how much political power can be remained from [the] economic sphere” after such a length of time.

“While the intention to scrutinize major projects and to investigate corruption should be well received, major changes will not come easily as the Malaysian economy and business have long been dominated by government linked or government supported corporations and entities,” she said.

On a positive note, she added, “the euphoric excitement toward changes, equality and transparency, should be welcome, as they bode well for what is needed in the new era of efficiency — and innovation-driven economy that Malaysia aspired to achieve.”

 
…

Most U.S. insurance companies have not adapted their strategies to address the dangers of climate change, making them likely to raise rates or deny coverage in high-risk areas, said a study released Tuesday.

With predictions of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season approaching, thousands of people could be unable to afford insurance protection or lose it altogether, said the Canadian research study published in the British Journal of Management.

Scientific consensus holds that climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather, from hurricanes to flooding. Last year, three record hurricanes struck the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, causing billions of dollars’ worth of damage.

Yet insurance and reinsurance companies overwhelmingly continue to treat storms as “anomalous rather than correlated to climate change,” the study said.

“Insurers that ignore climate change will not put away enough money to cover their claims. To recoup those losses, they’ll have to raise rates or pull coverage from high-risk areas,” said lead author Jason Thistlethwaite, an assistant professor of environment and business at the University of Waterloo.

They will face whopping payouts associated with disasters, he said.

So long, coverage

“When this shift happens, thousands of people will lose coverage or it will be unaffordable,” he said.

Insured losses hit an all-time high between 2004 and 2014, according to a 2015 analysis by reinsurer Swiss Re.

Insurance companies use reinsurance to minimize their risk. 

But in 2015, only 3 percent out of a sample of 178 U.S. property insurers and reinsurers were taking into account climate change in corporate governance, underwriting and investment, the study found.

However, the number of companies factoring in climate change in at least one area of operation doubled to about three dozen from 2012 to 2015, it said.

With storm-related payouts soaring, insurance companies may go out of business or lose investors, Thistlethwaite said.

A shrinking insurance market will drive up costs to consumers, he said.

The researchers analyzed insurers in California, Connecticut, Minnesota, New York, Washington and New Mexico.

Less than a month away, the Atlantic hurricane season has been predicted to be “above average” by Colorado State University meteorologists. The season runs from June 1 to November 30.
…

Mexico’s central bank said Tuesday that it was creating a cybersecurity unit, following a hack on a domestic payments system at the end of April that affected Mexican banks.

The central bank said in a notice in the government’s daily gazette that the new unit would design and issue guidelines on information security for the country’s banks, which are supervised by the central bank.

Central bank Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon Carrillo said Monday that the country had seen an unprecedented attack on payment system connections and that he hoped that measures being taken would stop future incidents.

The attack on Mexican banks is similar to one of the biggest-ever known cyber heists, when thieves stole $81 million from Bangladesh’s central bank in 2016, said Fermin Gonzalez, head of forensic services at PricewaterhouseCoopers in Mexico.

“Perhaps, some financial institutions perceived the attacks in Bangladesh as something very distant,” he said, adding that some Mexican banks may not have invested in sufficient security measures.

“But criminals look for vulnerability and once they see it they are going to exploit it.”

The central bank has not identified which banks were hit by the cyberattack or detailed how much thieves were able to wire out to bogus accounts in other banks.

A source close to the government’s investigation said more than 300 million had been siphoned out of banks, but it was not clear how much had subsequently been taken out in cash withdrawals.

Bank Grupo Financiero Banorte said Tuesday it does not expect the attack to hit financial results.
…

U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday rejected any plan by President Donald Trump to ease restrictions on China’s ZTE Corp, calling the telecommunications firm a security threat and vowing not to abandon legislation clamping down on the company.

Trump on Monday had defended his decision to revisit penalties on ZTE for flouting U.S. sanctions on trade with Iran, in part by saying it was reflective of the larger trade deal the United States is negotiating with China.

“I hope the administration does not move forward on this supposed deal I keep reading about,” Republican Senator Marco Rubio said. Bilateral talks between the world’s two biggest economies resume in Washington this week.

The Wall Street Journal has reported Beijing would back away from threats to slap tariffs on U.S. farm goods in exchange for easing the ban on selling components to ZTE.

“They are basically conducting an all-out assault to steal what we’ve already developed and use it as the baseline for their development so they can supplant us as the leader in the most important technologies of the 21st century,” Rubio said at a Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Asia policy.

Trump had taken to Twitter on Sunday with a pledge to help the company, which has suspended its main operations, because the penalties had cost too many jobs in China. It was a departure for a president who often touts “America First” policies.

The Commerce Department in April found ZTE had violated a 2017 settlement created after the company violated sanctions on Iran and North Korea, and banned U.S. companies from providing exports to ZTE for seven years.

U.S. companies are estimated to provide 25 percent to 30 percent of components used in ZTE’s equipment, which includes smartphones and gear to build telecommunications networks.

Cybersnooping?

The suggestion outraged members of Congress who have been pressing for more restrictions on ZTE. Some U.S. lawmakers have alleged equipment made by ZTE and other Chinese companies could pose a cyber security threat.

​”Who makes unilateral concessions on the eve of talks after you’ve spent all this time trying to say, correctly in my view, that the Chinese have ripped off our technology?” Senator Ron Wyden, the senior Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, which oversees trade policy, told Reuters.

Wyden, who is also on the Intelligence Committee, was one of 32 Senate Democrats who signed a letter on Tuesday accusing Trump of putting China’s interests ahead of U.S. jobs and national security.

The company has denied wrongdoing.

Republican Representative Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said at a Bloomberg event on Tuesday he did not expect lawmakers would seek to remove a ban on ZTE technology from a must-pass annual defense policy bill making its way through Congress.

“I confess I don’t fully understand the administration’s take on this at this point,” Thornberry said. “It is not a question to me of economics, it is a question of security.”

Another Republican, Senator John Kennedy, defended Trump, saying the president’s approach is part of a larger set of negotiations with China.

“He didn’t get up one day and go, ‘I think I’ll change my mind on ZTE.’ I think it’s part of a larger issue, and part of a larger set of negotiations,” Kennedy told reporters.
…

Mexico’s economy minister said that he saw diminishing chances for a new North American Free Trade Agreement ahead of a Thursday deadline to present a deal that could be signed by the current U.S. Congress.

U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan has said that the Republican-controlled Congress would need to be notified of a new NAFTA deal by Thursday to give lawmakers a chance of approving it before a newly elected Congress takes over in January.

“It is not easy. We do not think we will have it by Thursday,” Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo told broadcaster Televisa on Tuesday.

But Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau struck a more upbeat tone, telling reporters in Calgary a few hours later, “There is very much an eminently achievable outcome … and we are very close.”

“We are going to continue to remain optimistic,” said Trudeau. He met with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday and discussed the possibility of bringing NAFTA talks to a “prompt conclusion.”

Negotiators from the United States, Mexico and Canada have been in intense talks since last month to try to reach a deal before U.S. congressional elections in November. Mexico’s presidential vote on July 1 also complicates the process.

“We will keep negotiating, and in the moment that we have a good negotiation, we can close the deal … independent of which Congress (the current or new) that will vote on it,” said Guajardo.

Mexico’s peso sank to its weakest level in over a year on Tuesday, and the country’s benchmark stock index fell about 1 percent to its lowest since early April.

Guajardo said the talks could be concluded before or just after the July 1 vote.

Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is leading polls to win the presidential race, and his pick for economy minister, Graciela Marquez, said last month his administration would be willing to accept a deal struck before the election.

If that is not possible, she said it would be better to complete the negotiation after the next government takes office at the start of December. Guajardo said the next government’s team would need to be involved in any talks after July 1.

Guajardo said negotiators were getting close to reaching a deal on rules for the auto  sector under NAFTA.

However, talks still faced the hurdles of U.S. demands for a sunset clause that would allow NAFTA to expire if it is not renegotiated every five years, and the elimination of settlement panels for trade disputes.

More flexibility was needed for a deal, Guajardo said. Kenneth Smith, the chief Mexican negotiator at the talks, said that for Mexico there were no deadlines.

Irrespective of the Thursday deadline mentioned by Ryan,there was still time to ratify anew NAFTA this year, Smith told broadcaster Enfoque Noticias.

Hanging over the talks is Trump’s threat to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on its trade partners. Mexico and Canada have been spared so far, although the latest exemption for them will run out at the end of May.

Smith said his government would retaliate with equivalent measures “immediately” if tariffs or quotas were imposed.
…

People nixing vacations to Hawaii’s Big island has cost the tourism industry millions of dollars as the top attraction, Kilauea volcano, keeps spewing lava.

Cancellations from May through July have hit at least $5 million, said Ross Birch, executive director of the island’s tourism board.

The booking pace for hotels and other activities, such as tours for lava viewing, zip lines and glass bottom boats have fallen 50 percent. A handful of cruise ships have also decided not to come into port even in Kona on the west side of the island, about 80 miles (129 kilometers) away from the volcano.

This is the “first leak we’re seeing out of the bucket,” Birch said.

Tourism is one of Hawaii’s biggest industries and a big part of the local economy. The Big Island topped other islands in the archipelago pulling in $2.5 billion in revenue last year. 

On Monday, another fissure spewing lava and unhealthy gas opened up, and a crack in the Earth that emerged a day earlier was sending molten rock on a slow run for the ocean, officials said.

The National Weather Service has warned residents of “light ashfall” throughout the day in Kau, the island’s southernmost district, after a burst of volcanic emissions around 9 a.m. 

Nearly 20 fissures have opened since the Kilauea volcano started erupting 12 days ago, and officials warn it may soon blow its top with a massive steam eruption that would shoot boulders and ash miles into the sky. 

A fissure that opened Sunday led authorities to order 10 people to flee their homes, Hawaii County Managing Director Wil Okabe said. Overall, nearly 2,000 people have been told to evacuate since May 3, and lava has destroyed more than two dozen homes. 

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said the flow from the crack that emerged Sunday was heading on a path that would take it to the ocean, about 2 miles (3 kilometers) away. No homes or roads were threatened by the flow.

Lava on Sunday spread across hundreds of yards of private land and loud explosions rocked the neighborhood not far from the Leilani Estates subdivision, where more than a dozen other active vents opened over the past week.

Nearby resident Richard Schott, 34, watched from a police checkpoint as the eruption churned just over a ridgeline and behind some trees.

“I’ve actually seen rocks fly over the tree line, and I can feel it in my body,” Schott said. “It’s like a nuclear reaction or something.”

Few fissures, ground deformation and abundant volcanic gases indicate eruptions on the eastern flank of Kilauea are likely to persist, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said.

“The appearance of the fissures in the past couple of days does not change the overall picture or concern,” Geological Survey scientist Steve Brantley said.

Christian and Maritza Ricks, who moved to the area from California in April, stopped at the side of the road to watch and listen to the latest eruption.

“I guess it’s just part of living on the island,” Ricks said.

He said he wasn’t really afraid of the destruction happening around him. 

“In a way, it’s kind of exciting to see what’s going on and be this close to it,” Christian Ricks said.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported a fissure opened Saturday just east of the Puna Geothermal Venture energy conversion plant, where steam and hot liquid are brought up through underground wells and the steam feeds a turbine generator to produce electricity. 

As a precaution, plant workers last week removed 50,000 gallons (189,265 liters) of a flammable liquid stored at the site.
…

Uber Technologies’ growth has slowed as a series of scandals has allowed the ride-hailing company’s chief U.S. competitor, Lyft, to grab more market share, digital research firm eMarketer said in a report on Monday.

The research firm has lowered its forecasts for Uber’s growth for the next several years. It projects 48 million U.S. adults will use Uber at least once this year, up 18 percent from last year but well off eMarketer’s earlier forecast of more than 51 million.

EMarketer based its analysis on data from Uber and Lyft, such as trip numbers and app downloads, as well as customer surveys from researchers at JP Morgan and other firms.

Series of scandals

The report quantifies the effect of a series of scandals at Uber last year, which included an internal probe of sexual harassment and workplace behavior; a U.S. Department of Justice investigation into whether Uber managers violated U.S. laws against bribery of foreign officials; a lawsuit by Alphabet alleging trade secrets theft that Uber settled for $245 million; and the departure of Uber’s chief executive officer, who was pushed out by investors concerned about the growing list of problems.

Uber did not respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, Lyft has grown quickly, adding more than 160 cities last year, benefiting from Uber’s tarnished image and as a later entry into markets where people are already familiar with ride-hailing services, eMarketer said. On Monday, Lyft said it has 35 percent of the national ride-hailing market, and in 16 U.S. markets its share exceeds 40 percent.

“Uber’s brand image took an even bigger hit than expected as it grappled with a series of scandals and PR disasters in 2017,” said Shelleen Shum, eMarketer’s forecasting director. “Lyft, which had been rapidly expanding its coverage, seized on the opportunity to brand itself as a more socially conscious alternative.”

Lowered forecast

The research firm said it has lowered its forecast for Uber’s growth every year through 2021, reflecting the company’s competitive disadvantage after last year’s problems. EMarketer’s previous projections pegged the number of Uber users in 2017 at about 44 million, but the actual number ended up being fewer than 41 million.

Even so, Uber remains the dominant U.S. ride-hailing company. At the end of this year it will have about 77 percent of the market, down from 90 percent in 2016, while Lyft will have 48 percent, up from nearly 29 percent, according to eMarketer.

EMarketer’s projections for 2022 show Uber with nearly 74 percent of customers and Lyft with 59 percent of ride-hailing customers. Some people use both services.

Lyft operates in roughly the same number of U.S. cities as Uber, as well as in Toronto. Uber operates across the globe, although it has retreated from Southeast Asia, Russia and China after losing billions of dollars competing with local rivals.
…

U.S. President Donald Trump urged for a quick conclusion to a renegotiated North American Free Trade Agreement during a phone call Monday with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 

The White House said Trump “underscored the importance” of quickly reaching a deal, while Trudeau’s office said the two spoke of the “possibility of bringing the negotiations to a prompt conclusion.”

The talks have come under increased pressure to quickly produce a deal after U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan said this week he would need to be notified of a new agreement by May 17 to give the current Congress a chance to pass it this year.

Canada, the United States and Mexico are renegotiating their 24-year-old free trade pact in a process triggered by the Trump administration. Trump has been highly critical of the 1994 deal, blaming it for the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs that hurt the U.S. economy.

He has repeatedly threatened to leave the pact if a satisfactory updated agreement is not reached.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Monday that none of the contentious issues the three countries have been discussing appear to have been resolved. Ross, who is not directly involved in the NAFTA talks, told reporters in Washington Monday that the big issues are still a “work in progress.”

Last week, the latest round of NAFTA talks ended in Washington without any major breakthroughs on how to renegotiate the deal. Those talks were the first to involve all three of the top officials in the negotiations — U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo.
…

President Donald Trump says he is looking for a way to let a Chinese technology firm “get back into business fast” after a U.S. trade ruling severely crippled the company.

“Too many jobs in China lost,” Trump tweeted Sunday, days after ZTE announced it had ceased “major operating activities.”

The U.S. had cut off exports of U.S.-made parts to ZTE — more than 25 percent of the components ZTE needs to build its wireless stations, optical fiber networks and smartphones.

The U.S. cutoff came after ZTE was, in the words of one expert, “caught red-handed” putting the U.S. technology into products and selling those goods to countries under a U.S. trade embargo, including Iran and North Korea.

The U.S. fined ZTE $1.2 billion last year. But the U.S. said last month ZTE lied about punishing the employees believed to be involved in skirting the sanctions, paying them bonuses instead.

The Commerce Department cut off ZTE’s access to U.S. components until 2025, forcing it to shut down operations at its factory in Shenzhen.

Trump has often complained about China stealing U.S. jobs. But he tweeted he is working with Chinese President Xi Jinping to ease the economic fallout at ZTE and ordered the U.S. Commerce Department “to get it done!”

“The president’s tweet underscores the importance of a free, fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial economic trade and investment relationship between the United States and China,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Lindsay Walters said Sunday. “The administration is in contact with China on this issue, among others, in the bilateral relationship.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang told reporters Monday that China appreciates the U.S. position and that the two countries are discussing the issue.

The U.S. and China are due to hold their latest round of trade talks this week in Washington.

“China and the United States are working well together on trade, but past negotiations have been so one sided in favor of China, for so many years, that it is hard for them to make a deal that benefits both countries,” Trump said in another tweet. “But be cool, it will all work out!”

Douglas Jacobson, an attorney who represents suppliers who do business with ZTE, told VOA that Trump’s order to help ZTE is a stunning decision and one bound to make U.S. law enforcement officials unhappy by going over their heads.

“This has caught all of those in the exports and sanctions world certainly by surprise and with some degree of shock and awe,” Jacobson said. “This is unprecedented that the president of the United States would intervene in what really is a law enforcement case.”

But Jacobson said the ZTE matter is not a sign of a general thaw in trade tensions between the U.S. and China, including the recent tit-for-tat tariffs.

Jacobson said he believes Trump may be willing to make a concession on China in exchange for China’s help with North Korea.

Steve Herman, Ken Bredemeier, Ira Mellman and Kenneth Schwartz contributed to this report.

 
…

There’s a push to level the playing field for women in India, where women account for 42 percent of university graduates but only 24 percent are hired as entry level professionals. Of these, 19 percent are likely to reach senior level management. To make matters worse, the number of women who leave the work force is also higher than men. As Ritul Joshi reports, a specially designed management course for women in New Delhi is teaching them to make their way in a male dominated work force.
…

Senior officials from the United States, Canada and Mexico ended the latest round of talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement without any major breakthroughs on how to renegotiate the deal.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Friday after a week of talks in Washington that the United States will continue to work with its partners to update the 1994 trade pact. 

“The United States is ready to continue working with Mexico and Canada to achieve needed breakthroughs on these objectives,” he said.

The talks involved all three of the top officials in the NAFTA negotiations: Lighthizer, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo.

The talks have come under increased pressure to produce a deal quickly after U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan said this week he would need to be notified of a new agreement by May 17 to give the current Congress a chance to pass it this year.

Guajardo said Friday that revising the deal will take time. “We’re not going to sacrifice the quality of an agreement because of pressure of time. We’ll keep engaged,” he said.

Freeland echoed those comments. “The negotiations will take as long as it takes to get a good deal.”

She told reporters that there was a long “to-do” list to finish a renegotiation of NAFTA, but said the talks were making progress.

U.S. President Donald Trump again heaped criticism on NAFTA during a meeting with auto executives Friday at the White House. “NAFTA has been a horrible, horrible disaster for this country. And we’ll see if we can make it reasonable,” he said.

Trump has long criticized NAFTA, blaming it for the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs that hurt the U.S. economy.

The auto industry has featured prominently in the NAFTA talks, with one of the key sticking points being a U.S. demand to increase the U.S.-made components in vehicles that receive duty-free status in NAFTA.

Trump praised Fiat Chrysler chief Sergio Marchionne on Friday for plans to move production of its popular Dodge Ram truck back to the United States from Mexico.

“Right now, he’s my favorite man in the room,” Trump said.
…

British Prime Minister Theresa May and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed in a phone call Friday that talks were needed to discuss how U.S sanctions on Iran would affect foreign companies operating in the country.

Trump’s decision to pull the United States out of the Iranian nuclear deal and revive U.S. economic sanctions has alarmed the leaders of Britain, France and Germany who remain committed to the deal and who have significant trade ties with Tehran.

“The prime minister raised the potential impact of U.S. sanctions on those firms which are currently conducting business in Iran,” her spokeswoman said. “They agreed for talks to take place between our teams.”

The spokeswoman said May had told Trump that Britain and its European partners remained “firmly committed” to ensuring the deal was upheld as the best way to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

The two leaders also condemned Iranian rocket attacks against Israeli forces earlier this week and strongly supported Israel’s right to defend itself.

“They agreed on the need for calm on all sides and on the importance of tackling Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region,” the spokeswoman said.
…

Mexico will not be rushed into revamping the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) just to get a deal, Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said on Friday ahead of trilateral talks with his U.S. and Canadian counterparts.

Guajardo said he would meet at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) with Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and that the three are closer to agreeing new rules for autos that are vital for a deal.

However, Guajardo, who is eager to reach an agreement on all the principal aspects of a modernized NAFTA before sealing a new deal, said plenty of other issues were outstanding.

“I have to make very clear [that] the quality of the agreement and the balance of the agreement has to be maintained. So we are not going to sacrifice balance and quality for time,” he told reporters on the doorsteps of Lighthizer’s office.

“We believe there is a way to solve autos. I think we are trying to make a very good effort … We are looking at the whole set of items we have to solve. So it’s not autos, it’s everything else.”

Guajardo and Freeland have been meeting Lighthizer separately since the start of the week. Friday’s trilateral meeting will be the first held this week.

Drafting new rules of origin governing what percentage of a car needs to be built in the NAFTA region to avoid tariffs has been at the center of the talks to update the 1994 deal. It forms a key plank of the Trump administration’s aim to boost jobs and investment in the United States.

Officials and industry sources say the three sides have been gradually narrowing their differences on autos.

However, several other major issues are still unresolved, including U.S. demands for a five-year sunset clause that would allow NAFTA to expire, and elimination of settlement panels for trade disputes.

U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan set a May 17 deadline to be notified of a new NAFTA to give the current Congress a chance of passing it. The United States will hold elections in November for a new Congress that will be seated early next year.

Mexico’s top trade official, however, said time was running short to meet such a deadline. Mexico will hold its presidential election on July 1.
…

Burden or business opportunity? A new U.N.-backed study of refugees from the World Bank’s International Financial Corporation argues for the latter. The IFC researchers examined one of Africa’s oldest and largest refugee camps, Kakuma in northwest Kenya. What they found is a growing consumer base they say is ripe for more private investment in sectors like mobile banking and energy. The IFC took VOA’s Daniel Schearf on a tour of the camp. He has this report.
…

A senior United Nations official says trade protectionism, rising private and corporate debt, and shortcomings in revenue raising are growing challenges to the economic outlook for the Asia Pacific.

Shamshad Akhtar, executive secretary of the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), noted the threats of trade wars undermining the region’s positive economic growth outlook.

The United States has pressed states, notably China, to reduce trade and current account deficits with the U.S., recently imposing tariffs on steel exports from several countries.

Akhtar said such trade protectionism represents “quite a big threat” along with nontariff barriers, which have been rising since the 2008 global financial crisis, such as cross border restrictions that further limit trade.

“If you look at the trends, there has been a post-2008 crisis, there has been an increase in nontariff barriers that face the Asia Pacific region as a whole. [The U.S. tariff increases] have been classified as a trade war eventually, if at all those [measures] are invoked there will be a counter reaction,” Akhtar said.

Trade war and growth

She said a trade war would directly impact the region’s economic growth, especially affecting small- and medium-sized enterprises in the Asia Pacific that have trading links to economies such as China, a key target of the U.S. tariffs.

“Yes, growth in itself would be impacted, and it’s happening at a time when we have just seen a recovery; both in terms of growth as well as trade,” Akhtar told VOA.

She said the trade conflicts represented a challenge to the long-standing multilateral rules set down under the World Trade Organization (WTO).

But economists with the Singapore/London based Capital Economics, say recent trade talks between the U.S. and China, and slowing global growth may have eased the threat of a trade war.

China trade surplus leveling

Capital Economics Senior China economist, Julian Evans-Pritchard, in a May commentary, said that while the trade surplus with the U.S. remains near an all-time high, there were “some signs” of it leveling off.

Evans-Pritchard said China’s export performance was also easing as global growth may have peaked.

“This will hopefully encourage [China] to adopt a pragmatic approach to trade negotiations in order to try to avoid the imposition of tariffs and an even sharper slowdown in export growth,” he said.

Outlook for 2018-2019

UNESCAP’s annual economic survey for the Asia Pacific, released this week, remained upbeat for the region’s economic growth at 5.5 percent in 2018 and 2019, with a “slight moderation” in China, offset by a recovery in India, with steady growth elsewhere in the region.

But Akhtar said there are still significant economic headwinds going forward, including infrastructure financing, estimated to be as much as $1.7 trillion.

To meet such demand, she said there is a need to reform taxation administration “in some of the Asia Pacific economies” through simplified tax regimes that could mobilize as much as $60 billion.

Mounting debt

The survey warned of “potential financial vulnerabilities” in regions of high private and corporate debt, particularly in China, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand, in order to avoid a repeat of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.

“It’s very clear to me we need to tackle the issue of private and corporate debt because from our previous experiences any overexposure in terms of whether the debt is private, corporate or household can induce a huge amount of domestic financial vulnerability,” Akhtar said.

Akhtar noted progress achieved in reducing poverty from almost 44 percent in 1990 to around 12 percent in early 2010.

But poverty levels remain “relatively high” in South and Southwest Asia. The Asia Pacific region still has some “400 million people living in poverty.”

Another issue is growing income inequalities in key economies, with the most marked changes in China and Indonesia, and to a lesser extent in India and Bangladesh.

“Given that we have steep inequalities with countries, it basically means that people don’t have access to basic economic and social services,” which can also sustain poverty rates, she said.

Akhtar said in the medium term “potential economic growth” appeared on a downward trend in several countries because of aging populations and a need to boost investment in human resources, such as education.
…

Mexico on Thursday indicated time was running out to see whether NAFTA nations could agree a new deal in the short term while Canada struck a upbeat tone, saying top-level talks this week had achieved a great deal.

Major differences remain between the three members of the North American Free Trade Agreement after more than eight months of largely slow-moving negotiations launched at the insistence of Washington, which wants major changes to the 1994 pact.

A source close to the talks said U.S. officials have told Canada and Mexico that May 17 or 18 is the deadline for a text that could be dealt with by the current U.S. Congress. A second source confirmed that those dates had been discussed.

Need solutions before elections

Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said he expected to learn by the end of Friday whether a new deal was possible in the short term.

“I think we will be finding out through the day and tomorrow … if we really have what it takes to be able to land these things in the short run,” Guajardo told Reuters.

Top-level talks between the three members this week hit an obstacle as the United States and Mexico sought to settle differences over the key issue of automobiles.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer wants a quick agreement to avoid running into complications caused by a Mexican presidential election on July 1 and U.S. midterm Congressional elections in November.

‘Getting closer’

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said the three nations had “made a lot of progress since Monday … we are definitely getting closer to the final objective.”

Freeland, speaking to reporters after meetings with senior U.S. legislators on Capitol Hill, sidestepped questions as to when an agreement might be reached.

Guajardo told Reuters that “we have suitcases for two weeks if necessary.”

U.S. President Donald Trump regularly threatens to walk away from NAFTA, underscoring uncertainty over the pact. Business executives complain that the lack of clarity is hitting investment.

Mexico has launched a counterproposal to U.S. demands to toughen automotive industry content rules and boost wages. U.S. President Donald Trump blames cheaper wages in Mexico for manufacturing job losses in the United States.

Many major issues remain

Many other major issues crucial to a deal are still unresolved, including U.S. demands for a five-year sunset clause, and elimination of settlement panels for trade disputes.

After meeting with Lighthizer on Thursday, Guajardo told reporters that the talks were not just covering autos.

“You cannot think that in a process of negotiations we’re going to solve one item without reviewing the overall balance of the agreement,” he said. “We’re going over all the items. It’s very important to stress that.”
…

Virginia Wallen is a wife, a mother of three, and a woodworker. She achieved what she has never imagined she would — turning her carpentry hobby into a business. The entrepreneur isn’t just succeeding in her new career, she’s tearing down stereotypes and building a new role model.

It happens for a reason

Wallen, who grew up helping out on her family’s farm, developed all the skills required by a professional woodworker early on.

“It wasn’t so much as a passion — growing up doing woodworking – as much as a requirement: help mend a fence or work on the farm or do things like that,” she recalls. “When given a choice in high school between home economics and woodshop class I picked woodshop and welding. But the passion happened a lot later when the HGTV [TV channel for home improvement] came out.”

Still, carpentry wasn’t her first career choice. Wallen worked for 11 years with an IT company.

“I was pretty certain that that was my career path for the rest of my life,” she says. “So when I got laid off I was devastated. I just never expected that I would ever be laid off. I was applying for jobs everywhere but because I’m so type A. I can’t sit around and do nothing. And, I was driving my husband crazy.”

New career

Inspired by her dogs, Penny and Chloe, Wallen returned to her hobby… and made a crate for them. Then, she posted the pictures on line.

“That week I had five people reached out to me asking if I would build them one,” she says. “I wasn’t expecting that feedback. But I took it as divine intervention, maybe I need to change. I told my husband I was going to start building dog kennels.”

That surprised her husband, Kevin Wallen, who works in IT and also enjoys carpentry as hobby.

“I thought she was crazy,” he admits. “But after the first one was well-received, it was great. It was like ‘OK, this is going to take off.’”

And it did. But that wouldn’t have been possible without her husband’s help.

“I took over Mr. Mom,” he explains. “I kind of stepped in and had to be more hands on with kids and more hands on with the school stuff and dinners and things like that because her work was focused on building the business. So it was a big change, but being married that’s what you got to do. You got to step up every now and then.”

Wallen is thankful for her husband’s support.

“Kevin can also help pick up that slack when I need it,” she says. “He can come down here when I need help building and he can help me do that. If I need help putting kids to bed because I’m here building until eleven o’clock at night, he can do that too.”

That gave Wallen the time she needed to build her brand, Ginny Bins. Her products are made of recycled wood and have a warm, vintage look. She markets them on-line.

On line at the right time

Around the same time Wallen started her business, psychologist Heather Abbott was in the process of starting a day care center, Little Oaks Montessori Academy. She went online searching for furniture.

“I didn’t want to get the standard, just ordered off the Internet pieces, I wanted something very customized that looked like it would go into a home,” she says. “I saw Ginny Bins, Virginia woodwork business. I liked it. I contacted her.

Abbott says Wallen understood what she wanted, from the whimsical to the practical.

“One of the things that I really was looking for is a book shelf that looks like a tree,” Abbott says. “She’s like, ‘you know I’ve never made anything like this, but I’m going to give it a shot.’ She did it and it happens to be one of the children’s favorite pieces in the school. She made boards with little clips. A table for the staff kitchen. The angle of the room was weird and she had to make it small enough to fit in. She did Dutch doors on all the classrooms so we wouldn’t have to shut the doors, we don’t have to close it all completely. ”

Abbott loves each of these items and the message of unlimited possibilities behind them. “It’s to teach our teachers, our students, our families that pass by, so they know that Virginia made those pieces and they can say this is a stereotype that we’re breaking.”

Woodworker Virginia Wallen doesn’t like stereotypes and believes it’s time for women to ignore them and just do what they want.

That’s what she’s doing. And that’s how she’s found her passion, woodworking- the work she has fun doing every day.

 
…

Wall Street surged on Wednesday as surging oil prices boosted energy stocks following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision the previous day to quit a nuclear agreement with Iran.

Gains were broad and volume was high, with all but the utilities and telecom sectors advancing as investors who had moved to the sidelines in recent days ahead of Trump’s decision returned to the market.

“It’s classic ‘buy on the terrible news,’ ” said Ian Winer, director of trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles, referring to the wider market’s rally. “People had gotten way too nervous about this.”

Trump’s decision for the United States pull out of the international agreement aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was good news for investors betting on a rise in oil prices. Crude hit its highest level in 3½ years as investors bet the U.S. withdrawal would increase risks of conflict in the Middle East and curtail global oil supplies.

The S&P energy index jumped 2.03 percent, bringing its gain this quarter to 12.6 percent, more than any other sector.

“The rise in oil is helping energy sector, which is expected to be a pretty big growth sector. A lot of analysts are expecting strong earnings as oil rebounds, and that hasn’t really played out so much early this year,” said Shawn Cruz, senior trading specialist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.75 percent to end at 24,542.54 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.97 percent to 2,697.79. The Nasdaq Composite added 1 percent to finish the session at 7,339.91.

Volatility Index down

The Cboe Volatility Index, the most widely followed barometer of expected near-term volatility for the S&P 500, closed down 1.29 points at 13.42, its lowest close since January  26.

Worries lingered that rising oil prices would perk up inflation. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to a two-week high and above the key 3 percent level on expectations of higher interest rates.

With March quarter reports mostly wrapped up, S&P 500 earnings per share appear to have surged by 25.9 percent, helped by deep corporate tax cuts introduced this year, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

In stock trading, Google-owner Alphabet Inc. rose 2.87 percent, providing more lift than any other stock to the S&P 500. It was followed by Facebook Inc., which rose 2.09 percent.

Walmart Inc. fell 3.13 percent after the retailer took a majority stake in Indian e-commerce firm Flipkart for about $16 billion.

Walt Disney dipped 1.79 percent despite reporting a quarterly profit above Wall Street estimates.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.71-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.65-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 40 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 168 new highs and 52 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 7.1 billion shares, compared with the 6.6 billion-share average over the last 20 trading days.
…

 A New York hedge fund founder was arrested Wednesday on charges that he exaggerated his company’s performance by over $200 million to impress and preserve investors.

Anilesh Ahuja, 49, of Manhattan, was charged with conspiracy, securities fraud and wire fraud.

Federal officials said that the founder, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of the investment firm Premium Point Investments LP had carried out a fraud from 2014 through 2016 that was designed to make investors believe that the firm’s hedge funds were doing much better than they were. Between 2008 and 2016, the firm managed billions of dollars in assets, exceeding $5 billion at one time at its peak, authorities said.

Amin Majidi, 52, of Armonk, New York, a former Premium Point portfolio manager, and Jeremy Shor, 46, of Manhattan, a former trader at the firm, also were charged. A lawyer for Ahuja did not immediately comment. A lawyer for Majidi declined comment. An attorney for Shor did not immediately return a message.

“By allegedly cooking the books, Ahuja and his co-defendants made the fund appear more attractive to would-be investors and dissuaded current investors from withdrawing their investments,” said Audrey Strauss, a federal prosecutor.

William F. Sweeney Jr., head of the New York FBI office, said in a release that the defendants’ “alleged practice of intentionally misleading investors and mismarking securities held in the funds they managed allowed them to charge higher fees and hold captive money that would have likely been withdrawn had their clients been aware of the hedge fund’s actual value.”

According to an indictment, Ahuja started his firm in 2008 and launched the company’s flagship mortgage credit fund a year later. After the firm began overstating the net asset value of its funds by more than $200 million at times, it was able to charge investors higher management and performance fees and could forestall redemptions, authorities said.

Prosecutors also announced Wednesday that the firm’s former chief risk officer and a former salesman at a broker-dealer have pleaded guilty to charges and are cooperating.

The Securities and Exchange Commission also filed civil charges against Ahuja, Majidi and Shor.

“Investors rely on their investment advisers to fairly and accurately value securities, and that is especially true when the securities trade in opaque markets,” said Daniel Michael, chief of the SEC’s Complex Financial Instruments Unit.  “As we allege, Premium Point masked its true performance, which denied investors the opportunity to make informed investment decisions.”
…

Saudi Arabia is monitoring the impact of the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal on oil supplies and is ready to offset any shortage but it will not act alone to fill the gap, an OPEC source familiar with the kingdom’s oil thinking said.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday abandoned a nuclear deal with Iran and announced the “highest level” of sanctions against the OPEC member. The original agreement had lifted sanctions in exchange for Tehran limiting its nuclear program.

Iran is the third-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries after Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

During the last round of sanctions, Iran’s oil supplies fell by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd), but the country re-emerged as a major oil exporter, especially to refiners in Asia, after sanctions were lifted in January 2016.

“People shouldn’t take it for granted that Saudi Arabia will produce more oil single-handedly. We need to assess first the impact if there is any, in terms of disruption, in terms of a reduction of Iran’s production,” the OPEC source said Wednesday.

“We have managed to put together this new alliance between OPEC and non-OPEC. Saudi Arabia will not in any way act independently of its partners.”

Riyadh is working closely with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which holds OPEC’s presidency in 2018 and non-OPEC producer Russia for “coordination and market consultations,” the OPEC source said.

He said any action would be taken in coordination with all OPEC and non-OPEC partners, if needed.

OPEC’s oil supply-cutting deal with non-OPEC producers such as Russia has helped to clear a global oil supply glut and boost prices. The agreement is due to expire at the end of 2018.

OPEC officials from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia along with few other producers in the pact are due to meet in Saudi Arabia on May 22-23 as part of a monthly meeting for the Joint Technical Committee which monitors the oil market.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter and top OPEC producer, is concerned about any negative impact from the potential oil supply shortage for oil-consuming countries, the OPEC source said.

But Saudi Arabia has enough oil production capacity — currently at 12 million barrels per day (bpd) — to maintain oil market stability, the OPEC source also said.

Iran produces about 3.8 million bpd. Since the Iran nuclear deal went into effect, its exports have risen to about 2.5 million bpd, from less than 1 million bpd. A majority goes to Asia, with Europe receiving about 600,000 bpd.

Analysts now expect Iran’s supplies to fall by between 200,000 bpd and 1 million bpd, depending on how many other countries fall in line with Washington.

Trump and oil prices

Expectations that new U.S. sanctions could hit Iranian crude exports and feed tensions in the Middle East had pushed oil prices higher in the past few weeks.

Brent crude was trading about $77 at a 3-1/2 year high on Wednesday, raising concerns that prices were going too high too fast.

Trump accused OPEC last month of “artificially” boosting oil prices in a message on Twitter, the first time he has mentioned OPEC on social media.

His tweet was seen by OPEC sources as the U.S. president’s way to appease a domestic audience unhappy about a rise in gasoline prices.

A key U.S. ally, Saudi Arabia welcomed Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran and to reimpose economic sanctions.

Riyadh also said it would work with OPEC and non-OPEC to lessen the impact of oil shortages in a clear indication that the country has been coordinating with Washington ahead of time, sources familiar with the matter said.

“You need to work with your partners in dealing with any potential effect on supply,” the OPEC source said.

“But it should be done in a collective coordinated way and that can only happen when you start to be able to assess what would be the impact.”

OPEC and non-OPEC meet next in June and they are widely expected to keep supply curbs in place until the end of 2018.

But a drop in Iranian exports due to U.S. sanctions, plus supply disruptions in other OPEC members, such as Venezuela, could reduce supply more than planned, leading to a potential price spike.

But the OPEC source said a rise in prices due to the market’s worries about supply should not be the parameter for OPEC to adjust output.

The OPEC source said any decision in June to raise output “should be driven by a potential physical shortage or reduction in production from any oil supply source not only Iran.”

“You only handle [output] when you have a semi-clear idea of what would be the potential impact. It is too early now to do that,” the source said.

He also said Saudi Arabia does not expect any physical impact on the oil market from the U.S. Iran sanctions until the third or fourth quarter of this year.

OPEC’s objective is still to reduce global oil inventories to an acceptable level, and any adjustment in production targets should be done in a coordinated way, the OPEC source said.

“This way you do not disrupt a mechanism that we have worked hard to put together and to sustain just to address a short-term issue,” the source said.
…

A United Nations agency said on Tuesday an “unjust” U.S. financial and trade embargo on Cuba had cost the country’s economy $130 billion over nearly six decades, coming up with the same estimate as the island’s communist government.

Although many U.S. allies join Washington in criticizing Cuba’s one-party system and repression of political opponents, the United States has lost nearly all international support for the embargo since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The U.N. has adopted a non-binding resolution calling for an end to the embargo with overwhelming support every year since 1992. In a report ahead of the vote last year, Cuba estimated total damage from the embargo at $130 billion.

“This country which welcomes us today .. is testing its own ways to face the brutal human costs that it has sustained during an unjust blockade,” the head of the U.N.’s regional economic body for Latin America, ECLAC, Alicia Barcena told its biennial meeting in Havana on Tuesday.

“We evaluate it every year as an economic commission and we know that this blockade costs the Cuban people more than $130 billion at current prices and has left an indelible mark on its economic structure,” she said, without detailing how the organization came to that estimate.

After agreeing to a historic U.S.-Cuban detente in 2014, former U.S. President Barack Obama eased the embargo, which was fully put into place in 1962. But U.S. President Donald Trump last year tightened travel and trade restrictions again. Only the U.S. Congress can lift it in full.

“Despite the difficulties the Cuban economy is faced with, particularly due to the intensification of the blockade imposed on Cuba… we will continue to focus on the development goals set,” Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said in his opening remarks at the meeting, attended also by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Cuba’s Soviet-style, centralized economy has grown just 2.4 percent on average per year over the past decade, official statistics show, much less than the 7 percent annual expansion the government has estimated it needs in order to develop.

Cuba hoped market reforms introduced in the last decade would boost growth, but they have so far borne mixed results.

The ruling Communist Party earlier this year admitted implementation had been harder than expected.

ECLAC will support Cuba’s reform program, Barcena said.
…

President Donald Trump will allow year-round sales of renewable fuel with blends of 15 percent ethanol as part of an emerging deal to make changes to the federal ethanol mandate.

Republican senators and the White House announced the deal Tuesday after a closed-door meeting, the latest in a series of White House sessions on ethanol.

The Environmental Protection Agency currently bans the 15-percent blend, called E15, during the summer because of concerns that it contributes to smog on hot days. Gasoline typically contains 10 percent ethanol. Farm-state lawmakers have pushed for greater sales of the higher ethanol blend to boost demand for the corn-based fuel.

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley called the agreement good news for farmers and drivers alike, saying it would increase ethanol production and consumer choice at the pump.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said the deal will save the jobs of thousands of blue-collar workers at refineries in Texas, Pennsylvania and other states.

“Terrific final decision from @POTUS meeting,” Cruz tweeted. “This is a WIN-WIN for everyone.”

The decision allowing E15 to be sold year-round will provide “relief to refiners” and “protect our hardworking farmers and refinery workers,” White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters said. “The president is satisfied with the attention and care that all parties devoted to this issue.”

Trump met Tuesday with Grassley, Cruz, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst and Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, as well as EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue.

The EPA oversees the decade-old Renewable Fuel Standard, commonly known as the ethanol mandate, which sets out how much corn-based ethanol and other renewable fuels refiners must blend into gasoline. The program’s intent was to address global warming, reduce dependence on foreign oil and bolster the rural economy by requiring a steady increase in renewable fuels over time.

The mandate has not worked as intended, and production levels of renewable fuels, mostly ethanol, routinely fail to reach minimum thresholds set in law.

Environmental groups criticized the deal, saying it would worsen air pollution during summer months.

“Waiving clean-air standards at the behest of one favored industry would not only set a precedent for bad policy, it could cost lives,” a coalition of environmental groups said in a statement.

Ernst said allowing year-round sale of E15 “will drive up domestic ethanol production and consumption” while helping to “maintain already low prices” for fuel credits that oil refiners must buy if they can’t blend ethanol into their fuels.

She and Grassley also said they were encouraged that the Trump administration will take a closer look at “hardship” waivers that have been granted to small refineries, a practice they say has hurt biofuels and undermined the RFS.

The EPA has reportedly granted a waiver to a refinery owned by billionaire Carl Icahn, a former Trump adviser, as well as other small refineries. The agency has not disclosed which refineries received the waivers, saying it did not want to reveal private business information.

Cruz said the president also agreed to consider his proposal to include fuel credits for ethanol that is produced domestically and exported. The proposal is meant to make it easier for the industry to meet annual sales volumes required under the renewable-fuel mandate.

“This is good for farmers, refiners and America,” Cruz said in a statement.

But the Renewable Fuels Association, an industry group, said allowing exports to qualify for RFS compliance could dramatically reduce domestic demand and result in retaliatory trade barriers from countries that import U.S. ethanol.

The group’s president, Bob Dinneen, called the export idea a “disgrace” and said ethanol producers and farmers would bear the brunt of any retaliatory tariffs.
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With the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs between Washington and Beijing looming, Chinese buyers are canceling orders for U.S. soybeans, a trend that could deal a blow to American farmers if it continues.

At the same time, farmers in China are being encouraged to plant more soy, apparently to help make up for any shortfall from the United States.

Beijing has included soybeans on a list of $50 billion of U.S. exports on which it has said it would impose 25 percent tariffs if the United States follows through on its threats to impose the same level of tariffs on the same value of Chinese goods. The U.S. tariffs could kick in later this month; China would likely retaliate soon after.

It can take a month or longer for soybean shipments to travel from the U.S. to China. Any soybeans en route to China now could be hit by the tariff by the time they arrive.

“The Chinese aren’t willing to buy US soybeans with a 25 percent tax hanging over their head,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource, an agricultural research and advisory firm. “You just don’t want the risk.”

China typically buys most of its soybeans from South American nations such as Brazil and Argentina during spring and early summer. It shifts to U.S. soybeans in the fall. As a result, for now, the cutbacks from the United States are relatively small.

But should they persist, it could cause real pain to U.S. farmers. Roughly 60 percent of U.S. soybeans are shipped to China.

There might also be a political impact: Three of the top five soybean-exporting states — Iowa, Indiana and Nebraska — voted for President Donald Trump in 2016.

Illinois, the top soybean exporter, and Minnesota, the third-largest, backed Hillary Clinton.

Basse said that it has been roughly three weeks since China has made any major soybean purchases, an unusually long delay.

Some Chinese buyers might be showing support for their government in the trade dispute by turning away U.S. soybeans, Basse said. The dispute may also make it seem too risky to buy from the United States over the long run.

“The United States could lose the reliable supplier label that we’ve had these many years,” Basse said.

Data from the U.S. government data show that sales of soybeans have fallen from about 255,000 metric tons in the first week of April, when the trade dispute began, to just 7,900 in the week that ended April 26.

Cancellations have also jumped, to more than 140,000 metric tons in the week ending April 26. In the same week last year, there were no canceled sales at all.

Some analysts argue that the shifts aren’t yet particularly significant. China buys most of its soybeans from the United States in the late summer and fall, and then switches to South American sources, mainly Brazil and Argentina, in the spring. So the current market activity doesn’t necessarily reflect the pattern that would occur during the main buying season.

“These numbers we’re talking about are pretty minor,” said John Baize, an economist for the U.S. Soybean Export Council.

The U.S. ships about 35 million metric tons of soybeans to China a year, Baize said. China usually imports about 100 million tons a year and can’t import enough from other countries, he said, to abandon the United States as a source.

“Where’s China going to buy its beans?” Baize asked.

That may be true in the short run. But Basse suggests that Brazil has enough land that could be used for soybean cultivation that it could soon mostly replace the United States as a supplier to China.

And if the Chinese market were to be closed to U.S. farmers, they might be able to sell some portion of their soybeans to other markets. Baize said that huge multinational companies, such as Cargill and ADM, might, for example, sell more U.S. soybeans to Europe, where they wouldn’t face any tariffs, though this likely wouldn’t make up for the loss of the Chinese market.

At the same time, China is looking more to its own farmers. Since China announced its potential tariffs on U.S. soy in April, the government has encouraged farmers to cultivate more soybeans. Beginning this month, Chinese farmers say, Beijing reduced corn subsidies and raised annual soybean subsidies from 2550 yuan ($400) per hectare to 3000 yuan ($470) or more per hectare in major soybean-producing provinces in northeast China.

An adjustment had already been planned to help draw down China’s substantial corn stockpiles, so the change wasn’t necessarily aimed at U.S. soy growers, analysts say.

But the subsidy adjustment did come with political undertones. Officials in major soybean-producing provinces were describing the promotion of local soybeans as “the most important political task in agricultural production at present.” Heilongjiang in northeast China announced a pilot project to plant soybeans on over 100,000 new hectares, with an extra 2,250 yuan ($353) subsidy per hectare.

The moves are prompting farmers like Liu Cong to focus more on growing soy. Liu says he used most of his land to grow corn last year but this year is planting more soybeans.

“This is encouraging for farmers,” he said in a phone interview. “We’re more motivated.”

Zhang Xiaoping, China director for the U.S. Soybean Export Council, says that Chinese buyers have been canceling soybean purchases of last year’s U.S. soybean harvest because of the threat of tariffs.

“The buyers literally stopped buying from the U.S.,” Zhang said. “Exporters cannot find any buyers in China.”
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Trade negotiations between China and the United States continue early next week in Washington D.C., but analysts say after the first round, the differences between the two sides are huge. Some believe the differences are so fundamental and big that an escalation of tariffs is unavoidable.

According to a widely circulated copy of Washington’s demands, President Donald Trump’s delegation not only asked Beijing to cut its trade deficit with the United States by $200 billion by 2020, but to also sharply lower tariffs and government subsidies of advanced technologies.

Beijing wants the United States to no longer oppose granting China market economy status at the World Trade Organization, amend an export ban against Chinese tech company ZTE Corp and open American government procurement to Chinese technology and services among other demands.

View to escalation

Scott Kennedy, a China scholar at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the first round made it clear just how far apart the U.S. and China are in their views of what’s fair, what they want and expect the other side to do.

“I think we’re still headed toward escalation with both sides adopting tariffs in the next few weeks, but at least now we know what the fight is about,” Kennedy said. “It’s about whether or not China should be a market economy, or what you know whether it should be able to maintain its state capitalist system without any constraints.”

China joined the WTO in December of 2001 as a non-market economy and after 15 years it was expected the granting of the status as a market economy would naturally follow — along with its opening up.

But that is not what has happened, and the United States and European Union have refused to grant China market economy status.

Beijing insists it should be regarded as a market economy regardless of whether other countries believe it fits the definition. Under Xi Jinping, the Communist Party has moved to assert greater control over business and the economy.

Competition vs. compensation

It has also become increasingly clear that China’s definition of reform and that of the West are strikingly different.

In an interview with VOA earlier this year, William Zarit, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce, said that while many used to assume China would continue to carry out Western style economic reforms initiated in the early 2000s, that is no longer the case.

“In the last four or five years, we’ve seen that reform has taken a different direction, that the Chinese economy is on a different trajectory and that is more support for state-owned enterprises,” Zarit said. “And when I hear reforms now, it is more about making state-owned enterprises more efficient and not necessarily competitive in a fully market-based economy.”

But Song Hong, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, argues that China has fulfilled its WTO obligations and it is the United States and European Union that have broken their promises to grant the country market economy status.

He said Washington’s demands to slash the trade deficit by $100 billion a year does not make economic sense. He also said the demand for China to lower tariffs and put the two countries on equal footing is impossible.

“The market in China is of course not as open as the U.S. market because China remains a developing country, which is no match to the U.S.,” Song Hong said. “The per capita income level in China around $10,000 vs. the U.S.’s some $50,000. How can both countries be equal?”

Talks as clock ticks

Some Chinese state media reports have tried to sound upbeat about the meetings focusing on the two sides agreed to keep talking, despite their differences.

On Monday, the White House announced a Chinese delegation led by Liu He, China’s vice premier and a top aide to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, will visit the United States early next week.

At the same time, however, the clock is ticking on U.S. threats to implement up to $150 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods. A day after Liu arrives in Washington, there will be a public hearing to discuss tariffs and the Trump administration’s investigation into China’s trade policies and practices.

If no agreement is reached by May 23, Washington would be well within its right to go ahead with the tariffs, analysts note. To which, China has promised to promptly reply.

Kennedy said that while the United States has used unilateral penalties in the past, this time around the chances of escalation are a lot higher.

“Not only are the disagreements deeply fundamental, China is much more powerful and ambitious than it used to be. And so it’s not likely to cave easily,” he said.

Brian Kopczynski contributed to this report.

 
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The Trump administration is unveiling a multibillion-dollar roster of proposed spending cuts but is leaving this year’s $1.3 trillion catchall spending bill alone.

The cuts wouldn’t have much impact, however, since they come from leftover funding from previous years that wouldn’t be spent anyway.

The White House said it is sending the so-called rescissions package to lawmakers Tuesday. Administration officials, who required anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said the package proposes killing $15 billion in unused funds. A senior official said about $7 billion would come from the Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, which provides health care to kids from low-income families, though that official stressed the cuts won’t have a practical impact on the popular program.

The administration is trying to use its authority to prod Congress to “rescind” spending approved years ago, but even if the package is approved it would only have a tiny impact on the government’s budget deficit, which is on track to total more than $800 billion this year. Some of the cuts wouldn’t affect the deficit at all since budget scorekeepers don’t give credit for rescinded money that they don’t think would have ever been spent.

For instance, more than $4 billion in cuts to a loan program designed to boost fuel-efficient, advanced-technology vehicles wouldn’t result in fewer loans since the loans are no longer being made. And $107 million worth of watershed restoration money from the 2013 Superstorm Sandy aid bill is going unused because local governments aren’t stepping up with matching funds. Another $252 million is left over from the 2015 fight against Ebola, which has been declared over.

Still, the cuts, if enacted by Congress, would take spending authority off the table so it couldn’t be tapped by lawmakers for other uses in the future. The catchall spending bill, for instance, contained $7 billion in cuts to CHIP that were used elsewhere to boost other programs.

“This is money that was never going to be spent,” a senior administration official said on a press call ahead of Tuesday’s submission. “The only thing it would be used for is offsets down the line.”

Democrats have supported such cuts in the past, eager to grab easy budget savings to finance new spending. But some Democrats howled over the White House proposal anyway.

“Let’s be honest about what this is: President Trump and Republicans in Congress are looking to tear apart the bipartisan Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), hurting middle-class families and low-income children,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

Pressure from party conservatives to increase cuts in a tentative $11 billion proposal contributed to a delay from Monday’s original release date.

The White House and tea party lawmakers upset by the budget-busting “omnibus” bill have rallied around the plan, aiming to show that Republicans are taking on out-of-control spending. The administration says it will propose cuts to the omnibus measure later in the year.

The spending cuts are also a priority for House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., who likens them to “giving the bloated federal budget a much-needed spring cleaning.” But while the package may pass the House it faces a more difficult path — and potential procedural roadblocks — in the Senate.

McCarthy wants to succeed soon-to-retire House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and some of his allies view the project as a way to improve his standing with fractious GOP conservatives who blocked his path to the speakership in 2015.

The proposal has already had a tortured path even before its unveiling. More pragmatic Republicans, including the senior ranks of the powerful House and Senate Appropriations committees, rebelled against the measure. They argued that it would be breaking a bipartisan budget pact just weeks after it was negotiated. In response, White House budget director Mick Mulvaney cleansed the measure of cuts to the huge omnibus bill.

Last month, Mulvaney told lawmakers the plan could have totaled $25 billion or so. Now he says he’s planning to submit several different packages of spending cuts — and it’s likely they’ll get more conservative with each new proposal.

Either way, the idea faces a challenging path in Congress — particularly the Senate, where a 51-49 GOP majority leaves little room for error even though budget rules permit rescissions measures to advance free of the threat of Democratic filibusters. But the cuts to the popular children’s health insurance program probably could still be filibustered because they are so-called mandatory programs rather than annual appropriations.
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