Conservative activist groups that generally support Republicans but oppose a pro-export, anti-import Republican tax proposal released a study on Thursday estimating its impact on individual U.S. states, underscoring the party’s division over taxes.

The two activist groups, backed by billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch, reported that seven states won by President Donald Trump in November’s election would be among the 10 hardest hit by the proposal.

Freedom Partners and Americans for Prosperity, both based in the Washington area, said the “border adjustment tax,” or BAT, would harm all 50 states, but that those heavily dependent on imports could suffer most.

The report predicted economic harm to Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas — all states Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The list of hard-hit states also includes California, New Jersey and Illinois, which Democrat Hillary Clinton carried.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican who intends to include the BAT in tax reform legislation this spring, sharply criticized the study.

‘Fantasy figures’

“That so-called study will be easily discredited and probably fits the definition of fake news,” Brady told reporters. “It takes one provision, pretends the economy freezes … applies it in our current tax code and comes up with fantasy figures.”

BAT, billed as a way to boost U.S. manufacturing, would exempt export revenues from federal tax, while ending the deductibility of import costs by corporations, making imports for production or resale costlier.

The plan is part of a tax reform blueprint supported by House Speaker Paul Ryan. Trump is also working on a tax plan.

The proposal is also opposed by a number of Senate Republicans who could prevent its passage, should the House approve a tax reform bill that contains it.

Koch organizations, including the brothers’ privately held conglomerate, Koch Industries, have warned that BAT could devastate the U.S. economy by raising prices on consumer goods, including gasoline. Refineries owned by Koch Industries rely on oil imports from Canada.

The Koch groups say they support tax reform but oppose BAT.
…

Strong trade ties between the United States and nations in Southeast Asia are under a cloud as a U.S. investigation into trade imbalances gets underway. Regional governments say the apparent policy shift has spurred concern and anxiety.

A 90-day investigation by the U.S. Commerce Department of countries with large trade surpluses with the United States follows President Donald Trump’s call for a crackdown on “foreign importers that cheat.” Trump said the shift will result in a “historic reversal” in U.S. trade policy.

“While we’ve seen an improvement in the trade figures between January and February, we continue to be very focused on eliminating our nation’s trade imbalance,” said Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. “This administration is determined to achieve free and fair trade, to protect hard working Americans, and to grow our economy.”

Among the Asian economies singled out by Trump were those of China, Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, India, Taiwan, Indonesia and Vietnam.

Analysts say the review may mark a major change in Asia’s trading relationship with the United States.

Campaign rhetoric

After World War II, Southeast Asia’s emerging economies, beginning with Japan, looked to the U.S. economy to spur export led growth — key to the region’s progress in lifting millions out of poverty.

But charges that some trade policies, particularly China’s, had damaged the U.S. economy were a prominent feature of Trump campaign rallies.

Krystal Tan, an economist with the Singapore-based Capital Economics, said the trade investigation has led to concerns and uncertainties across the region.

“At this stage it’s still quite difficult to see what kind of measures the U.S. might want to take. It does look like countries that are probably most nervous about potentially being named currency manipulators are [South] Korea and Taiwan,” Tan told VOA.

The United States argues that currency manipulators deliberately keep their currency low in value against the U.S. dollar in order to boost their exports.

Taiwan trade officials say the trading relationship with the U.S. is not a hostile one, as over 80 percent of Taiwan’s exports to the U.S. are intermediate goods — those sent to the U.S. for final assembly.

David Hsu, deputy director general of Taiwan’s Bureau of Foreign Trade (BOFT) told local media the trading relationship with the U.S. was “mutually beneficial.”

Taiwan’s main concern is the potential imposition of sanctions following the review.

Tan says South Korea and Taiwan, to avoid sanctions, will need to open their markets to more U.S. products.

Malaysia’s International Trade and Industry Minister, Ong Ka Chuan, told local media Malaysia was neither responsible for, nor taking advantage of, the U.S. trade deficit.

Ong said any sanctions could impact American manufacturers in Malaysia, such as Intel and Western Digital.

“If Trump were to punish us for this [trade surplus] the American firms will be ones dealt a severe blow,” he said.

Kuala Lumpur-based RHB Research chief economist Peck Boon Soon said the U.S. policy revision left Malaysian business cautious on the outlook.

“Yes, certainly it remains very uncertain until [Trump] really implements those policies and whether those policies would be able to be implemented. We are watching these things quite closely and we would be waiting for more developments before we decide what to do with our forecasts on exports,” Peck told VOA.

In late 2016, export growth boosted Malaysia’s economic growth rate to 4.5 percent — “the strongest in the four quarters.”

The United States is Thailand’s third largest trading partner after China and Japan. Two-way trade reached $36.5 billion in 2016, with $24.49 billion from Thai exports. The trade surplus with the U.S was $12.4 billion.

Major exports to the United States include machinery, electrical appliances, electronics and parts, rubber products and gems and jewelry.

Both Malaysia and Vietnam were key participants to the 12 nation Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), a key component of President Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia” policy intended to counter China’s growing political and economic influence.

TPP withdrawal

Trump withdrew the United States from the TPP soon after taking office.

This week, Vietnam’s Prime Minister, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, criticized the U.S. policy shift, saying the trade policies would have a “huge impact” on Vietnam’s export driven economy.

Carl Thayer, a political scientist with the University of New South Wales, says Phuc’s comments were “guarded”, but with Hanoi looking to build trading ties under China’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

“Vietnam had its heart and soul on the TPP. They have a massive surplus with the U.S. It almost equals their massive deficit with China. But there’s not very much they can do, they’re being pragmatic and looking at the RCEP – the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,” Thayer said.

Thayer said Vietnam has banked on a strong U.S. presence in Asia as a counterweight to China’s regional influence, especially in the South China Sea.

“The more Trump goes his own way Vietnam has got to do a five power balance with India, Russia, Japan, as well as China and the U.S. weakness; the U.S. side. So Vietnam has a harder time preventing being sucked into China’s orbit — in all of this — it needs a strong U.S. action,” he said.

He says bilateral relations with Vietnam, built up over the past two decades, are a casualty of the trade policy shift.

“Yes, it gets worse for Vietnam because they can’t rely on the U.S. They have no idea what [the U.S.] is going to do,” he said.
…

Struggling U.S. farmers are pressing their luck with soybeans this spring, sowing record acreage even though the world is awash with the oilseed, as demand from China offers a potential lifeline.

Soybean plantings could surpass corn for the first time this year, with rising exports holding up prices and providing a narrow path to profitability for U.S. farmers facing their fourth straight year of declining incomes.

But fierce competition to supply China threatens the bottom line for U.S. growers, and 2017 prices, while seen as up slightly from 2016, are still projected to be 50 cents per bushel lower than three years ago.

Diplomatic concerns also weigh heavily as the market eyes tense relations between the two countries. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping meet this week in Florida.

Trump has said he wants U.S. companies to stop investing in China and instead create jobs at home. He has also  accused China of manipulating its currency to boost exports.

Mike Jordan, a farmer from Beloit in north-central Kansas, plans to boost soy acreage by 10 percent after success both on the yield and price fronts for his crop in 2016.

“The general sentiment is … even though Kansas is a wheat state, beans look pretty good,” Jordan said. “If you told me five years ago beans were going to produce more than half the total income on my farm, I would have wondered where you were coming from.”

Planting records

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts farmers will sow 89.482 million acres of soybeans this year, up 7.2 percent from the record 83.433 million acres in 2016. Corn acreage was seen falling to 89.996 million acres, just 514,000 greater than soybean intentions.

During the past decade, final soybean acreage has topped the March forecast by more than 500,000 acres five times, with the biggest gain in 2012, when plantings beat initial projections by 3.296 million acres. A year ago, final soybean plantings came in 1.197 million acres above March intentions.

Soybeans also are taking acreage from wheat, which has struggled on the export market. U.S. wheat plantings were seen falling to 46.059 million acres — the lowest since the government started tracking them in 1919.

The soybean crop is planted to be exported, part of its allure to farmers who see demand for wheat and corn declining on both the export and domestic fronts.

On average, 45 percent of the soybean crop has been exported during the past 10 years and the USDA projects that will rise above 50 percent in 2017/18. Corn is typically used for domestic feed or ethanol, with only about 14 percent exported.

The rising soy acreage is seeded with China in mind.

“With China, if we can keep them as a good customer … I am hoping that they can soak up the extra supplies and keep the price from collapsing,” said Dave Newby, a farmer in Bondurant, Iowa, who plans to boost his soybean acreage by 50 percent this year.

China’s soybean imports have grown for 13 years in a row and the USDA expects them to hit 87 million tonnes in the year ending Sept. 1. That would soak up one-fourth of the world crop and represent a 130 percent surge in demand in the last decade.

The next-biggest importer is the European Union — set to bring in just 13.80 million tonnes in the 2016/17 crop year.

The United States sold 62 percent of its exports to China in 2016, worth more than $14 billion, according to the American Soybean Association. Soybean exports helped spur the U.S. economy to its biggest gains in two years during the third quarter of 2016.

South America steps up

But growing Chinese demand does not guarantee a profit as stocks should be huge even after China satisfies its needs.

Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures, which track the crop to be harvested this autumn, have fallen 1.0 percent since the USDA issued its acreage outlook on March 31. CBOT December corn has risen 2.1 percent.

Additionally, massive crops in Brazil and Argentina provide China with purchasing options, and the competition is likely to persist as South American farmers also have the export market at the forefront of planting decisions.

“We plant soy in Brazil because there is global demand for the grain,” said Elso Pozzobon, a farmer in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soy producing state. “This crop gives producers a sense of security.”

In Argentina, soybean acreage looks set to rise as an export tax that held back seedings is expected to decrease.

“Considering that world demand is still strong and prices are better than the alternatives,” said David Hughes, who farms thousands of hectares in Argentina’s bread basket Buenos Aires province. “I would guess we are probably at a low level of acreage limit.”
…

Many companies aim for “Best in Class” status, but some are seeking another “B” — B corporation certification.

Certified B corporations, or “B corps,” address the growing consumer interest in supporting socially and environmentally responsible companies.

B corps are essentially for-profit companies that behave more like nonprofits, tackling global issues such as pollution and income disparity through everyday business practices.

‘Business as a force for good’

“B corporations are companies that are using their business as a force for good,” said Andrew Kassoy, co-founder of B Lab, the nonprofit organization that issues B corp certification. “By having that B corp certification, it makes good easy for the consumer … to know that the company is having a positive impact on society,” he added.

For many companies, doing good may take a back seat to making money. But not for certified B corps.

Multimillion-dollar brands like fashion company Eileen Fisher and ice cream maker Ben & Jerry’s are among businesses certified as B corps.

“In some cases, it’s about the company trying to create more value for its workers, to create opportunity for workers to grow in the economy and have a job with dignity,” Kassoy said.

“In other cases, it might be about creating a product that’s more environmentally sustainable or socially responsible,” he said.

Growing around the globe

B corps are a growing global movement. Brands large and small make up the more than 2,000 certified B corporations, representing 130 different industries in 55 countries.

“Our foreign certifications are outpacing our U.S.-based certifications for the last year,” said Jennifer Warden, B Lab’s global partner manager. “We’ve got partners in 13 different regions — a lot in Latin America, Europe, a lot of momentum now in the Asia Pacific regions and Africa.”

To qualify as a B corp, companies must score at least 80 out of 200 points on an assessment that covers four key areas: corporate governance, employee rights, community outreach and environmental impact. Everything from waste reduction efforts to leadership roles for women and minorities are considered.

“You’re able to measure how you rank in terms of taking care of the community, how you rank in taking care of the environment, how you take care of your customer,” said Sean Cullen, project coordinator at Uncommon Goods, a Brooklyn-based online retailer that is a certified B corp.

Assessments are made every two years. In addition to maintaining a minimum score, certified B corps are also required to revise company bylaws to reflect accountability to workers and customers.

Depending on a company’s size, B corp certification costs $500 to $25,000 annually. For many, the payoff is in being among the best in the business.

Look for the logo

“When you see that certified B Corp logo on different products, you know that you’re getting a good product,” Cullen said.

B Lab maintains a website with a B corporation directory so consumers can look up a company and verify its certification.

“The goal is that one day, all companies will be able to manage and measure their impact with the same rigor as their profits,” Kassoy told VOA.

“And by doing that … all companies will compete to be best for the world, not just best in the world,” he said.
…

America’s infrastructure is crumbling. A report card from the American Society of Civil Engineers gives the country’s roads, bridges and public works a D+, with a large portion of the structures showing significant deterioration. Tuesday, President Donald Trump reiterated his promise to spend one trillion dollars to overhaul the infrastructure. For local communities, that money can’t come fast enough. VOA’s Arash Arabasadi reports from Pittsburgh.
…

The future of public transportation in New York City is taking shape on the bayous of Louisiana and Alabama.

Shipyard workers in the two states are scrambling to finish the city’s new ferry fleet in time for a launch this summer, just a little more than a year after it was first proposed.

The city is making a $335 million bet that the service will attract millions of passengers traveling between Manhattan and waterfront neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx that are now a distant walk from overcrowded subways.

Transportation infrastructure in the city has a tendency to take many years, if not decades, to get built, but in this case workers are under pressure to get the new ferries and docks built in a New York minute.

Horizon Shipbuilding, in Bayou La Batre, Alabama, has 100 employees – including 80 hired last summer – working to fill its order of 10 ferries for the 20-boat fleet. The rest are being built at the Metal Shark shipyard in Franklin, Louisiana, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) southwest of Baton Rouge.

Inside Metal Shark’s huge boat-building shed last week, several of the $4 million catamaran vessels were in various stages of completion. Sparks and smoke flew around workers’ protected heads as they welded one lightweight aluminum ferry frame. Other workers stood between the catamarans’ two pontoons, sanding the rough metal. Electricians were busy wiring the navigation system. Cranes carried pieces of tubing to the ferry-to-be.

“A project like this is unique,” said Junior Volpe, director of special projects for Hornblower Inc., the San Francisco-based company that will operate the ferry system in partnership with New York City.

More than a year ago, when they were still negotiating the construction of the ferries in such a short time period, “a lot of people were, like, ‘Wow, I don’t think this is ever going to happen.’ And to prove that things are possible, here we are. We’re sitting on the first ferry that’s going to be delivered here at Metal Shark – and it’s amazing,” Volpe said.

City transportation officials say the new ferry fleet will speed up travel time in this city of islands by as much as two-thirds and come at a competitive price – $2.75 – the same as a subway fare. That compares to the limited ferry service that currently takes commuters and tourists across the Hudson and East Rivers at $4 to $6 per ride. New York’s fifth borough, Staten Island, is served by its famed free ferry service that offers about 23 million rides a year.

In an interview with The Associated Press this week, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said he hoped the new ferry service, along with a new streetcar line he also has proposed, would help lighten the transportation load for a city of 8.5 million that is expected to grow by another half a million people in the coming years.

While de Blasio acknowledged the new ferry service’s initial goal of 4.6 million annual rides per year is modest (the subway system handles 5.7 million rides on weekdays), he was hopeful the growth in ridership would be greater.

“If you build it,” he said, “they will come.”

Travel by water in New York harks back to the city’s maritime glory days in the late 1800s, when there were no subways and the East River, the harbor and the Hudson River were abuzz with industrial production and business activities relying on water-borne modes of transportation.

“But ferries don’t solve New York’s overall transportation problem,” said Nicole Gelinas, a transportation analyst at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research.

She noted that with commercial activity no longer concentrated on the waterfront and most people living elsewhere, ferries handle only a fraction of the ridership of subways. “That doesn’t mean ferries are not a good idea, because they get at least some people off the trains that are crowded beyond capacity.”

In addition, she said, the financial structure of the new ferry service, in which the city plans to spend $180 million over six years subsidizing fares, could be difficult to sustain.

“The mayor hasn’t addressed these issues at all,” Gelinas said. “But the new ferries are good for him in that he’ll be inaugurating them a few months before the election.”

All that doesn’t ruin the anticipation for longtime Astoria resident Claudia Coger.

After years of spending three, even four, hours a day commuting to work as a train inspector, with long walks to subways and buses, she vows to be among the first on the ferry, boarding at a dock just steps from her apartment.

“Yes, for sure, because I fish over here anyway!”
…

Three years ago, 14-year-old Julius left his family near the lakeside city of Mwanza, Tanzania, to try his luck mining gold.

Today, Julius is in no hurry to leave, despite having one of the riskiest jobs on a chaotic mine site — handling mercury each day with his bare hands.

“It’s good work. I’m paid well,” Julius, who wanted to use only his first name, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, wearing an orange T-shirt and skinny jeans coated with red dirt.

Julius, now 17, said he has been working with mercury for three years, but no one had ever told him it was dangerous.

There are more than 4 million child laborers in Tanzania aged between 5 and 17, according to a government survey released last year in conjunction with the International Labor Organization. That’s roughly a third of the country’s children.

More than 3 million are doing hazardous jobs, including at illegal mines like the one near Nyaligongo in northern Tanzania, where they are exposed to mercury, heavy dust and work long shifts without safety gear.

Many unaware of laws

The Tanzanian government is aware of the problem but has struggled to keep children out of small, unlicensed mines. Its laws do not allow children under 14 to work, and hazardous work is not permitted for children over 14. Tanzania has signed all major international conventions on child labor and introduced its own laws to prevent the worst child labor.

But not everyone knows of the child labor laws, including families and local officials.

Government workers tasked with enforcing the laws lack the staff and funds for inspections, let alone prosecutions.

“In Tanzania we have a good law and strategy to eliminate all kinds of child labor, but the problem here is who is going to implement this at the local level,” said Gerald Ng’ong’a, executive director of Rafiki Social Development Organization (SDO), an NGO that works on child labor in northern Tanzania.

“Local officials don’t have enough information about the law and how to protect children.”

Lure of gold

The problem is especially hard to tackle in the informal sector, said Emma Gordon, senior Africa analyst at global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, which ranks Tanzania as the 55th-most “at risk” country in its 2017 Child Labor Index, due to be published Wednesday.

“The government’s focus is very much centered around large industrial projects, particularly foreign-owned businesses that would be able to pay fines if violations were discovered,” Gordon wrote in an email to the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

In Lake Victoria’s gold belt, where gold has been extracted since the 1890s, licensed and unlicensed small mines operate with major mining firms close by. The scrappy “artisanal” mines provide a crucial source of income to people outside Tanzania’s cities, but like the mining site at Nyaligongo, many operate without government licences.

The majority of children working in gold mines are employed by individuals running these unlicensed mines, observers say. They are among the worst exploited of the mines’ workers, typically earning the equivalent of about 1 euro ($1) a day.

“Pit owners employ children because they’re cheap labor,” said Ng’ong’a.

Legal or not, the lure of the mines — and the harsh poverty of the farming communities around them — keep children coming.

Brothers Petromos and Mayalamos, 12 and 16, left their village outside Mwanza because they heard there was good money to be made at this mine.

“The work is difficult,” said Mayalamos. “But I can only leave this place once I’ve earned enough.”

Nyaligongo village relies on gold to survive.

On the village’s main street, cramped shops sell vegetables, SIM cards and lunch to off-duty miners. Middlemen purchase gold from miners to sell in the closest town, Kahama, where it is resold in bigger cities like Mwanza and Dar es Salaam.

Students leave to work

More than 8,000 people live in Nyaligongo, says Faustine Masasila, the village’s secretary and a mine site owner, and more are still arriving.

“There are people here who used to have very miserable lives,” Masasila said, walking through the buzzing market. “If you work hard, you are guaranteed prosperity.”

At the primary school down the road, teachers are less impressed with mining’s promise of a good future.

A poster on the school office wall is a testament to the number of children who leave to work when they are old enough.

This year, in Class 1, there are 236 students aged 6 and 7, while in Class 7 there are only 40 students aged 13 and 14.

“I feel very frustrated when children leave and go to the mines instead of going on to secondary school,” said Mabula Kafuku, the education officer for the ward. “They don’t even have enough knowledge to mine safely.”

Children dropping out of school is a nationwide problem in Tanzania and a major impediment to the government’s aspiration to become a middle-income nation by 2025. A recent Human Rights Watch report found that in 2016, more than 5 million children aged between 7 and 17 were out of school across the country.

For government workers tasked with inspecting mines for health, safety and labor violations, enforcing the law at the far-flung informal mines sprinkled around the Lake Victoria region is an onerous task.

Masasila, the village secretary, cannot recall ever seeing inspectors at the mining site near Nyaligongo.

“If you have children working in remote areas, you need a budget to visit. We don’t have such things,” said Hadija Hersi, a regional labor officer in Mwanza. “That’s why you have NGOs stepping in to intervene.”

Some success

Several nongovernmental organizations, including Terre des Hommes Netherlands, have been trying to get child workers back in school and help families develop alternate income sources to wean them off their wages.

Since 2014, Terre des Hommes Netherlands, working with Rafiki SDO, has managed to help more than 725 children leave the mines. In Geita, another nearby gold-mining area, U.K.-based Plan International has helped 12,000 children withdraw from small-scale mining work and is trying to reach another 11,600.

But as long as people are struggling to find work outside Tanzania’s cities, there is only so much NGOs can do.

At the mine, Nyanjige Mwendesha looks on as her three children, ages 10, 12, and 15, sit on the red, dusty ground, smashing up rocks with small metal hammers in the midday sun.

Mwendesha brought her family to work here after there wasn’t enough rain on her farm this year. The family needed the money.

“When it starts to rain, I’ll go back to the farm,” she said.
…

The first phase of what is expected to be a lengthy and costly process to build additional segments of wall along the southwestern U.S. border ended as the deadline expired Tuesday afternoon for companies to pitch their ideas to the government.

The bidding process was to build 3-by-3-meter (10-by-10-foot) prototypes — some made of concrete, some of any other type of material — in San Diego, that the government will now evaluate for potential use along parts of the border, which stretches from southeast Texas to southwest California.

The government said it will spend two weeks selecting up to 20 competitors for a second round of competition for each type of wall. More than 400 companies showed interest in bidding, and several may win the chance to build the prototypes.

Phase two

If the schedule outlined by U.S. Customs and Border Protection is not delayed, the second phase will begin in mid-April, with companies submitting cost analyses and more specific design plans.

Construction on the prototypes could begin in June, according to bid documents.

The specifications for the wall indicate new portions could be as low as 5 meters or as high as 9 meters (18 feet and 30 feet) — “physically imposing in height,” and resistant to people chipping away at it, CBP described in a notice to interested contractors.

The process began in mid-March, pushed by President Donald Trump, who campaigned regularly on the idea of building a wall along the border. Fencing, walls, surveillance towers and other barriers — including natural, rugged terrain — already exist.

The overall length of the wall segments to be added to the border remain unclear. But they must be resistant to climbing and take more than 30 minutes to bore through, according to bid documents — enough time for border agents to locate the attempted breach.

They should also be “aesthetically pleasing in color” on the north, U.S.-facing side, the document specifies.

Other solutions

In a Congressional hearing Tuesday, two former CBP officials and a Texas professor testified before the Senate Homeland Security Committee about border fencing in the Southwest; they agreed with several senators that a wall is not the only solution to illegal migration across the border.

“There is not a one-size-fits-all for the border,” said David Aguilar, former acting commissioner of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

He advocated for increased resources for CBP in the area, while Terence Garrett, a professor from the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, advocated for improving conditions in the so-called northern “triangle countries” — Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala — to curb the number of aspiring migrants traveling north.

The ongoing bid process focuses exclusively on the wall, but Ron Colburn, former deputy chief of the U.S. Border Patrol who also worked on the Arizona-Mexico border, told senators Tuesday that border security combines multiple techniques that change depending on what area is in question.

“Without tactical infrastructure, it’s too weak. Without the right amount of manpower, it’s too weak. And without the right mix of technology, it’s too weak,” Colburn said. “The links in the chain have to be equally strong. And it has to be the right mix.”

“It’s not going to be the same in San Diego as in Rio Grande Valley, South Texas,” he added.

Paying for the wall

Trump promised to make Mexico pay for the wall, a proposal that country rebutted. Instead, the administration has requested that Congress approve $1.5 billion this year to start building a wall.

Estimates for the overall cost of adding miles of wall to the border are as high as $21.6 billion, according to a Reuters estimate, and that funding will require congressional approval.

Additionally, the government faces continued legal wrangling along the border to secure the land, often from private owners, to build additional barriers.
…

The Chilean government’s plans to reform the country’s pension system will be in doubt if governing coalition members are unable to reach agreement among themselves on the design of any new legislation, the finance minister said on Tuesday.

Chile’s privatized pension system was started in the 1980s during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. The so-called ‘Chilean model’ has been much copied and adopted worldwide.

But opposition to it is rising in Chile, with regular noisy street protests demanding changes. Opponents claim it forces workers to give their earnings to for-profit funds, called AFPs, and that the payouts are meager.

Center-left President Michelle Bachelet, now entering the last year of her four-year term, has pledged reform and set up a commission to look into the current system.

But differences of opinion among her increasingly divided coalition may make a new law impossible, Finance Minister Rodrigo Valdes said.

“[Bachelet] has not yet decided on the contents, or even if the bill will go ahead, because that will depend on what kind of consensus we can get,” he said in an interview with Radio Cooperativa.

Possible changes could include raising the contribution minimum to 15 percent from the current 10 percent. But there has been disagreement on whether that extra should go direct to workers who pay it or to a shared “solidarity fund.”

Lawmakers are also in disagreement on whether the extra cash should be administrated by the AFPs or a new state-run fund.

As Bachelet’s popularity has slid and differences emerged over other reforms such as abortion and labor, she has increasingly struggled to keep her coalition, ranging from centrist Christian Democrats to Communists, on the same page.

“If in doing something we are going to fight between ourselves, there is not much point,” Valdes said.
…

Large numbers of job seekers from around the world are filing applications at U.S. federal offices as the season opened Monday for H1-B visas for foreign workers.

H1-Bs allow employers – mostly high-tech firms – to hire skilled foreign workers for jobs in the United States for three years. Eighty-five thousand slots are available – 65,000 for applicants with bachelor’s degrees and 20,000 for those with master’s or more advanced degrees.

In recent years, there have been so many applications that the U.S. government stopped accepting them within a week. Visa winners are chosen by a computer-generated lottery.

This year, there is additional pressure because the program’s future is not clear.

President Donald Trump has vowed that he will not allow American workers to be displaced by foreigners holding H1-B visas.

On Monday, as the application process opened, the Department of Justice warned U.S. companies not to discriminate against American workers.

“U.S. workers should not be placed in a disfavored status, and the department is wholeheartedly committed to investigating and vigorously prosecuting these claims,” said Acting Assistant Attorney General Tom Wheeler of the Civil Rights Division.

At the same time, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) warned it will take a “more targeted approach” as it makes site inspections across the country.  What it will be targeting includes an inability to find an employer’s basic business information through commercially available data, employers who have a high ratio of H1-B employees to U.S. workers, and employers who petition for H1-B workers to work off-site.

Outsourcing

Overwhelmingly, India has been the biggest recipient of H1-B visas. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reports that 71 percent of H1-Bs went to Indians in 2015. China was a distant second with 10 percent of the visas.

India’s success is attributed to its huge outsourcing firms that submit thousands of applications every year, increasing their chances of winning the lottery. Outsourcing firms, which supply services to other companies, are controversial because they are not subject to a federal requirement that they not displace American workers if they pay the H1-Bs at least $60,000 a year.

The H1-B visa program has proponents who argue that there are not enough Americans to fill all the slots for which skilled workers are needed. A research brief filed Monday by the bipartisan group New American Economy said that there are “persistent and dramatic” worker shortages in science, technology, engineering and math.

The group of mayors and business leaders who support immigration reform said that in 2016, there were more than a dozen jobs posted in those fields for every one unemployed eligible U.S. worker.

Competing bills in the U.S. Congress both expand and curtail the H1-B visa program.

H1-B spouses

In the meantime, spouses of H1-B holders, who are allowed to work under a 2015 rule, are still in limbo regarding their eventual employment status.  

The Department of Justice, acting on behalf of the Department of Homeland Security, has asked for additional time to review the rule that allows spouses of H1-B visa holders to work.

Implemented under the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, the rule has been challenged in court by Save Jobs USA, an organization of information technology workers who claim to have lost their jobs to H1-B visa holders. The group maintains that the rule threatens American jobs.

Before the rule, spouses, who hold H-4 visas, were not allowed to work.

In February, the DHS had asked for 60 days to review the rule. On Monday, that 60-day period closed and the Department of Justice requested a 180-day extension, promising to update the federal appeals court at 60 days.

Save Jobs USA filed a cross motion Monday asking that the additional time be denied.
…

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced steps on Monday to prevent the fraudulent use of H1B visas, used by employers to bring in specialized foreign workers temporarily, which appeared to fall short of President Donald Trump’s campaign promises to overhaul the program.

Trump had promised to end the lottery system for H1B visas, which gives each applicant an equal chance at 65,000 positions each year.

Lobbyists for businesses who rely on H1B visas, commonly used by the tech sector, had expected Trump to upend the lottery in favor of a system that prioritized workers who are highly skilled and would be highly paid in the United States.

The lottery for fiscal year 2018 opened on Monday without changes.

The start of the lottery was seen by those watching the issue as the unofficial deadline for the Trump administration to enact H1B visa reform, and the failure to meet that deadline signals that Trump’s promised overhaul of the system may be off the table or long delayed.

“More oversight is a good start, but employers can still use the program legally to depress wages and replace American workers. That falls short of the promises President Trump made to protect American workers,” said Peter Robbio, a spokesman for Numbers USA, a Washington-based group that advocates for limiting immigration into the United States.

The White House could not immediately be reached for comment.

In keeping with the practice of former President Barack Obama’s administration, employers and foreign workers will enter a lottery system where 65,000 workers are permitted to enter the United States to work. An extra 20,000 H1B visas are reserved for workers with advanced degrees.

Last year, the lottery remained open less than a week before the program reached its cap.

Tech companies rely on the program to bring in workers with special skills and have lobbied for an expansion of the number of H1B visas awarded.

Proponents of limiting legal immigration, including Trump’s senior adviser Stephen Miller, have argued the program gives jobs that Americans could fill to foreign workers at a less expensive cost.

The measures announced by DHS on Monday focus on site visits by U.S. authorities to employers who use H1B visas.

In future site visits, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services agents will investigate incidents where an employer’s basic business information cannot be validated; businesses that have a high ratio of H1B employees compared with U.S. workers; and employers petitioning for H1B workers who work off-site.
…

The effects of the 2008 financial crisis are still being felt, says the International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde. 

She cites a new IMF study showing global productivity has slowed to 0.3 percent over the last decade, lower than the pre-crisis average of about 1 percent growth per year. Had productivity growth followed pre-crisis trends, Lagarde says the overall GDP in advanced economies would be about 5 percent higher.

Lagarde attributes the slowdown in labor productivity — the amount of goods and services produced by an average worker per hour — to three major headwinds: an aging global population, the slowdown in international trade, and the lasting impact of the 2008 financial meltdown.

The slowdown has been particularly abrupt in continental Europe, where five Eurozone member countries — Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus — required various emergency bailouts after being unable to refinance their sovereign debt. 

Lagarde says strong policy actions, such as government-backed innovation, may be required to reverse the slowdown. For example, she says ramping up research and development by 40 percent could increase the gross domestic output (GDP) in advanced economies by as much as 5 percent, significantly improving demand at the same time in developing economies. 

But to be effective, Lagarde says governments must provide clear signals about future economic policy and boost investment in education, worker training and infrastructure.

Lagarde made her comments Monday at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute in Washington, just two weeks before the World Bank and IMF annual spring meeting, at which member countries discuss challenges facing the global economy and ways to ensure financial stability around the world.
…

Japanese big manufacturers’ business confidence improved for a second straight quarter to hit a one-and-a-half year high in March, a closely watched central bank survey showed, a sign the benefits of an export-driven economic recovery were broadening.

Service-sector sentiment improved for the first time in six quarters and companies remained upbeat on their capital expenditure plans, the Bank of Japan’s “tankan” survey showed, offering hope the economic recovery will gather momentum in coming months.

The data, which will be among factors the BOJ will scrutinize at its next rate review on April 26-27, reinforces a dominant market view the central bank’s next policy move would be to reduce rather than expand monetary stimulus.

“The tankan showed a balanced improvement in corporate sentiment at manufacturers and service-sector firms,” said Yuichiro Nagai, an economist at Barclays Securities. “Overall, the results support the BOJ’s rosy view on the economy.”

The headline index measuring big manufacturers’ business sentiment rose to plus 12 in March from plus 10 three months ago, the tankan showed on Monday, falling slightly short of market forecasts but marking the highest reading since December 2015.

The index gauging big non-manufacturers’ sentiment improved 2 points from plus 20, rising for the first time in six quarters and hitting the highest level since March 2016, the survey showed.

Brexit, Trump cloud outlook

Big manufacturers and non-manufacturers expect business conditions to deteriorate slightly in the coming three months, as risks to global trade such as Britain’s decision to leave the European Union and U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist statements cloud the outlook.

Still, the survey found big firms plan to increase capital spending by 0.6 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2018, compared with a median market forecast for a 0.1 percent drop.

“There has been talk about the risks of protectionism, but so far Japanese companies are not taking any specific steps related to this,” said Norio Miyagawa, senior economist at Mizuho Securities.

“This tankan will reinforce expectations that the BOJ is on hold for the time being. We certainly don’t see the need to ease or tighten policy,” he said.

Signs of life

Japan’s economy has shown signs of life in recent months, with exports and factory output benefiting from a recovery in global demand.

With inflation expected to accelerate later this year, a growing number of analysts now predict the BOJ’s next move would be to start scaling back its massive monetary stimulus.

The tankan’s sentiment indexes are derived by subtracting the number of respondents who say conditions are poor from those who say they are good. A positive reading means optimists outnumber pessimists.

 
…

Training for the Boston Marathon has left Tommy Race feeling spent. His bank account, too: Race’s Boston adventure will cost about $2,000.

“It’s a lot of money, but it’s also a vacation,” said Race, a high school math teacher from Bellingham, Washington. “For a runner like myself, I’d much rather throw down money to run Boston than go to Cancun or Europe or some other travel destination.”

Race (yes, that’s his real name) has plenty of company. Thirty-thousand athletes from 94 countries will participate in this month’s 121st running of America’s most venerable footrace, and organizers say they’ll pump $192 million into the local economy.

That’s the equivalent of $311 for every man, woman and child living in the city of Boston.

Sports industry experts say Boston’s payout is part of a lucrative global trend that’s been playing out in Chicago, New York, London and other cities that stage major marathons drawing competitors and spectators from around the world.

“People want to be a part of something that Olympians run in,” said Rich Harshbarger, CEO of Running USA, a nonprofit group that promotes the sport.

“You’re not going to be able to run the bases at Fenway. But at a big marathon, you get to line up and have the same experience that the pros do,” he said.

It’s an affluent bunch: Running USA’s latest national survey, done in 2015, found that more than seven in 10 marathon runners earn more than $75,000 a year, and most are college graduates.

Many in the field for the Boston Marathon on April 17 will bring their families along. Another 10,000 runners will descend on Boston for a sister 5K race, swelling not only the size of the crowds but the amount spent on hotels, restaurants, transportation and a weekend running expo hawking expensive gear and swag.

“Nearly everyone involved … will patronize local businesses,” said Tom Grilk, CEO of the Boston Athletic Association, which manages the marathon.

Included in the $192.2 million projection is $30 million that runners will raise to benefit dozens of charities.

And the Boston Marathon’s economic impact is steadily growing. Last year’s race generated $188.8 million, and the 2015 race brought in $182 million, the Association said.

Patrick Moscaritolo, president and CEO of the Greater Boston Convention & Visitors Bureau, calls race weekend “an extraordinary kick start” for the tourist season.

Other races that are part of the World Marathon Majors – a series that includes Berlin, Boston, Chicago, London, New York City and Tokyo – have an even bigger haul.

The TCS New York City Marathon says its economic impact in 2014, the most recent year for which figures were available, was $415 million. The Bank of America Chicago Marathon had an estimated $277 million impact in 2015, organizers say.

Getting to the start line is expensive, “but it’s worth every penny,” said Malinda Ann Hill, bereavement coordinator for Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, who’s running her first Boston together with her twin sister.

After 12 attempts to qualify, Hill doesn’t care what it costs.

“My twin won’t total it up, though,” she said. “She doesn’t want to know.”
…

 Iraq’s oil minister said on Sunday that his country plans to increase daily crude oil production to 5 million barrels by the end of this year, up from the current rate of about 4.4 million barrels per day, to secure sorely needed cash for its ailing economy.

Iraq, where oil revenues make up nearly 95 percent of the budget, has been reeling under an economic crisis since 2014, when oil prices began their descent from a high of above $100 a barrel. The Islamic State group’s onslaught, starting in 2014, has exacerbated the situation — forcing Iraq to divert much of its resources to a long and costly war.

Addressing an energy conference in Baghdad, Oil Minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi didn’t give details on which of the country’s oil fields would supply the increased output.

Late last year, Iraq joined a deal by OPEC and non-OPEC members to lower production for six months by 1.8 million barrels a day in order to prop up global oil prices. The mutual production decrease began on Jan. 1. Iraq’s share in the deal is to reduce output by 210,000 barrels a day to 4.351 million barrels.

“There are positive elements in that deal and we achieved a lot of its targets,” al-Luaibi told reporters on the sideline of the conference. “Work and cooperation are underway … to reach the 1.8 [million barrels a day] reduction,” he added, without divulging whether Iraq is going to support an extension to that deal.

OPEC Secretary-General, Mohammed Barkindo, said the compliance among the participants was 86 percent in January and 94 percent in February. Barkindo told reporters that OPEC members would consider whether to extend the production decrease agreement at a meeting next month.

The deal propped up the crude price to around $50 per barrel.

Iraq holds the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves. This year, it added 10 billion barrels, bringing its total reserves up to 153.1 billion barrels.

Al-Luaibi also said that more 15 billion barrels are planned to be added by 2018.

Iraq’s 2017 budget stands at about 100.67 trillion Iraqi dinars, or nearly $85.17 billion, running with a deficit of 21.65 trillion dinars, or about $18.32 billion. That’s based on an estimated oil price of $42 per barrel and daily export capacity of 3.75 million barrels.

Iraq is also grappling with a major humanitarian crisis. The U.N. estimates that more than 3 million people have been forced from their homes since 2014. It also faces growing dissatisfaction among residents of areas recaptured from IS who have had their properties demolished and suffer from scarce public services.

 
…

Investors are plowing ever more into ethical funds to back their views on issues such as global warming and gender equality, but such investments can be confusingly similar to standard funds, except for higher fees and “green halo” marketing.

The $23 trillion “sustainable, responsible and impact” (SRI) investment sector has received a rush of money since the Paris climate agreement and, more recently, in protest against U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to slash environmental regulations.

Europe is the dominant region for such investments, with $12.04 trillion, followed by the United States, with $8.72 trillion, while Asia lags some way behind.

U.S. investors have poured $1.8 billion into actively managed U.S. equity funds in the socially responsible category from November to January, according to Lipper data, while other funds saw a net outflow of $133 billion.

Even in fossil-fuel-rich Australia and New Zealand, SRI investment rose from $148 billion to $516 billion between 2014 and 2016, and from $729 billion to $1.09 trillion in oil-rich Canada, according to the Global Sustainable Investment Review released Monday.

Gavin Goodhand, a portfolio manager at Sydney-based Altius Asset Management, said the company’s sustainable bond fund tripled shortly after the 2015 climate accord, where nearly 200 countries signed up to measures designed to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

“The Paris conference was the line in the sand for many of our retail customers, particularly the millennial generation, who want to do the right thing for the environment,” Goodhand said.

Green funds may be not so green

Governments are also tapping the trend, selling green bonds to fund projects such as wind farms or low-carbon transport, with Poland, France and Nigeria making their debut this year.

Some managers, however, are skeptical.

“While environmental, social and governance factors should always factor into investment decisions, this is largely a marketing exercise,” said Steve Goldman, a global portfolio manager at Sydney-based Kapstream Capital, which has A$10 billion ($7.6 billion) of fixed-income assets.

Goldman said Kapstream did not have a responsible investment fund because its clients had not asked for it.

The bond market does not have commonly agreed standards or criteria for what constitutes a green bond, and there is no guarantee the proceeds go to the low-carbon project as claimed.

There are similar concerns over equity products.

Stuart Palmer, head of ethics research at Australian Ethical Investment, said there was a danger that some marketing departments would “greenwash” their products to lure investors into funds that were little different to standard products.

Higher fees

There are no agreed definitions on what is considered ethical, sustainable and socially responsible, but ethical investors are typically expected to cough up higher fees.

For example, retail investors pay more than a third higher fees for the sustainability and ethical funds at Sydney-based BT Investment Management (BTIM) than for its standard share fund equivalent.

The three funds hold six or seven of their top-weighted stocks in common, including major banks Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Westpac Banking Corp, National Australia Bank and miner BHP Billiton , according to December filings.

A BT spokeswoman did not return requests for comment.

Due diligence difficult

For investors, it can be a minefield.

“I find it difficult as a consumer to do the due diligence I would like to do because even the ethical funds are not always totally transparent about what they define as ethical,” said retail investor Meraiah Foley, a Sydney academic.

“One of the ethical funds I have invests very heavily in retail banks in Australia, and those banks themselves may be underwriting projects that the fund itself would not invest in.”

There is also no standard practice on what to do when an existing fund stock breaches a manager’s policies. Some investment managers will sell, but others argue they can influence behavior by retaining their shareholding.

“We believe in engagement rather than divestment,” said Sam Sicilia, chief financial officer at the A$22 billion pension fund Hostplus. “When you sell a share in a ‘bad’ company, it’s a transfer of ownership and does nothing to the company that’s causing the issue, so divestment does not really work.”
…

President Donald Trump doubled down on his tough talk on trade with a pair of executive orders Friday, which he says are designed to level the playing field and reduce the $500 billion US trade deficit, more than half of which is with China. As Mil Arcega reports, the issue of unfair trade is likely to come up when the U.S. president meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week.
…

Hotels offer congee and other Chinese staples for room service. Casinos train staff members on Chinese etiquette. Restaurants, tourist sights and shopping malls translate signs, menus and information booklets into Mandarin.

The American hospitality industry is stepping up efforts to make Chinese visitors feel more welcome, since they are projected to soon surpass travelers from the United Kingdom and Japan as the single largest overseas demographic.

And it’s not just the typical tourist hubs of New York and Los Angeles, where such efforts have long been commonplace. Smaller cities like Boston, Las Vegas, Seattle and Washington, D.C., are increasingly getting into the act, industry officials say.

“Americans traditionally lag behind what other international designations do for different cultures,” said Elliott Ferguson, CEO of Destination DC, the city’s convention and tourism organization, which last year launched “Welcome China,” a certification program for local businesses. “We just kind of assume that one size fits all. Quite frankly, that’s just not welcoming.”

Local tourism associations in those and other cities have recently launched campaigns aimed at getting their member hotels, restaurants and tourism companies to better incorporate Chinese language and customs into their offerings. They’re also embarking on tourism-focused sales missions to China and opening satellite offices in Chinese cities to strengthen ties and sell their city to trendsetters.

Sheraton Boston offers creature comforts

Some companies have already embraced the message.

The Sheraton Boston in the Back Bay neighborhood started offering in 2013 simple creature comforts many Chinese travelers expect, including slippers, robes, instant noodles, an electric kettle and green tea, and have since taken other steps to cater to Chinese guests, said Angela Vento, the hotel’s general manager.

The Four Seasons in D.C.’s Georgetown neighborhood makes similar gestures, as well as offering Chinese-language television and newspapers. It’s also working on offering more traditional Chinese dishes on its room service and restaurant menus, said Liliana Baldassari, a hotel spokeswoman.

In Las Vegas, Caesars Entertainment last year started offering guests at some of its affiliated resorts the option to book and pay for hotel rooms using WeChat, China’s most popular social media app.

“It’s made a really strong statement to the Chinese that these people really welcome us and understand us,” said Bruce Bommarito, the company’s vice president for international marketing, noting the Roman-themed casino has rolled out other China-focused initiatives in recent years, including training programs for staff on basic cultural etiquette for serving Chinese guests.

Those and other small touches are a step in the right direction, but more companies need to make an effort to recognize the growing importance of the Chinese market, said Justin Minggan Wei, a 27-year-old from Beijing who came to Boston in 2008 for college, an experience that inspired him to launch a consulting company helping local restaurants and businesses better serve Chinese customers.

Chicago Hilton reaches out

Zeng Wen, a 24-year-old who works part-time as a tour guide for Chinese-speakers in Chicago, said she has noticed recent efforts to reach out to Chinese tourists, like the Hilton hotel chain’s “Hilton Huanying” program, which derives its name from the Chinese words for “welcome.”

But Zhe Zhang, a 36-year-old from Guangzhou who visited Los Angeles this year, said he didn’t see any obvious outreach to Chinese visitors, outside of Chinese-run establishments. The most intimidating part, he said, was ordering food with his basic grasp of English.

“If possible, restaurants could provide a simple Chinese menu or pictured menu,” Zhang suggested.

Cities can’t afford to be caught flat-footed as China’s growing middle class — almost nonexistent two decades ago — flexes its spending power, industry experts say.

Chinese visitors already spend more in the U.S. than other international visitors, at roughly $7,200 per person, according to the U.S. Travel Association, an industry trade group. Travelers from the country are expected to more than double from about 2.6 million visitors in 2015 to nearly 6 million by 2021, the association said.

More direct flights from China to a wider range of U.S. cities in recent years is partly fueling the boom.

10-year visa a plus

Creation of a 10-year visa between the U.S. and China in 2014 has also made it easier for Chinese to travel more frequently to the U.S. That has allowed them to venture beyond must-see destinations like New York and Los Angeles to smaller and mid-size destinations and even the national parks, said Scott Johnson, a New York consultant working with Boston and other cities to grow their international presence.

The growing ranks of affluent Chinese are also staying longer and visiting more locations in the U.S. as they plan for their children’s college education or seek real estate and other investment opportunities.

U.S. tourism officials are working to assure partners in China that they remain welcoming even as the administration of Republican President Donald Trump tightens international travel policies and promises fundamental changes in the U.S.-China trade relationship, said Tom Norwalk, CEO of Visit Seattle, the city’s tourism organization.

“Security and travel don’t have to be mutually exclusive,” he said. “We’d hate to see us roll back the clock. We’ve been pretty loud and clear about that.”              
…

Friday marked the end of the week, the month and the first fiscal quarter of 2017.

The first-quarter statistics were pretty impressive with the NASDAQ Composite delivering the best return of the three main indices of nearly 10 percent as the index broke through another record high on Friday, led by heavyweights like Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN).

“The trends that are driving earnings growth in that sector —- cloud computing, internet of things, mobile and tablet adoption, increasing consumption of video, et cetera —- are all intact, and an improving global economy should allow that to continue,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Cornerstone Financial Partners.

The S&P 500 closed the quarter higher by its best gain since the fourth quarter of 2015. The Dow Jones industrial average added nearly 5.5 percent, which was its sixth straight positive quarter and the longest winning streak since the fourth quarter of 2006, although March showed the first monthly loss since October.

Trading week ahead

The all-important Employment Situation Report for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, April 7. The federal government’s employment data give the most comprehensive report of how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they’re getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers provide the best way to gauge the current state, as well as the future direction, of the economy.

Other key macro events include release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from March 14-15 on Wednesday and retail same-store sales throughout the morning on Thursday. While investors do not expect a change in the minutes from the last FOMC meeting, the release could move the markets as traders pick apart each word, looking for clues to monetary policy, when the next rate hike may occur and the amount of hikes anticipated for 2017.

Second-quarter outlook

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, believes the second quarter will get off to a good start.

“Both consumer and business confidence continue to rise, which should provide a tailwind for faster growth,” McMillan said in a research note. “Job creation remains very strong, and wage growth also continues to rise. Around the world, both Europe and Asia are seeing faster growth, marking the first synchronized global expansion since the crisis.”

McMillan believes that the second quarter isn’t likely to repeat the first, but strong economic fundamentals, along with rising corporate earnings, could continue to push markets higher. Rising confidence will support valuation levels and also offers a real possibility of upside surprises in the hard economic data, which could translate into even better than expected earnings growth.
…

Rain-fed wildflowers have been sprouting from California’s desert sands after lying dormant for years — producing a spectacular display that has drawn record crowds and traffic jams to tiny towns like Borrego Springs.

An estimated 150,000 people in the past month have converged on this town of about 3,500, roughly 85 miles (135 kilometers) northeast of San Diego, for the so-called super bloom. 

Wildflowers are springing up in different landscapes across the state and the western United States thanks to a wet winter. In the Antelope Valley, an arid plateau northeast of Los Angeles, blazing orange poppies are lighting up the ground. 

What is a super bloom?

But a “super bloom” is a term for when a mass amount of desert plants bloom at one time. In California, that happens about once in a decade in a given area. It has been occurring less frequently with the drought. Last year, the right amount of rainfall and warm temperatures produced carpets of flowers in Death Valley. 

So far this year, the natural show has been concentrated in the 640,000-acre (1,000-square-mile) Anza Borrego State Park that abuts Borrego Springs. 

It is expected to roll along through May, with different species blooming at different elevations and in different areas of the park. Anza Borrego is California’s largest state park with hundreds of species of plants, including desert lilies, blazing stars and the flaming tall, spiny Ocotillo.

‘Flowergeddon’

Deputies were brought in to handle the traffic jams as Borrego Springs saw its population triple in a single day. 

On one particularly packed weekend in mid-March, motorists were stuck in traffic for five hours, restaurants ran out of food, and some visitors relieved themselves in the fields. Officials have since set up an army of Port-A-Pottys, and eateries have stocked up. The craze has been dubbed “Flowergeddon.” 

Locals call those who view the tiny wildflowers from their cars “flower peepers.” Thousands of others have left their vehicles to traipse across the desert and analyze the array of delicate yellow, orange, purple and magenta blooms up close in the park. Many carting cameras have taken care to step around the plants.

Tour groups from as far as Japan and Hong Kong have flown in to catch the display before it fades away with the rising temperatures. 

Rare sightings tracked

Wildflower enthusiasts worldwide track the blooms online and arrive for rare sightings like this year’s Bigelow’s Monkey flower, some of which have grown to 8 inches (203 millimeters) in height. The National Park Service has even pitched in with a 24-hour wildflower hotline to find the best spots at the state park.

“We’ve seen everything from people in normal hiking attire to people in designer flip-flops to women in sundresses and strappy heels hike out there to get their picture. When I saw that, I thought, ‘Oh no. Please don’t go out there with those shoes on,’” laughed Linda Haddock, head of the Borrego Springs Chamber of Commerce.

On a recent day, a young woman sat among knee-high desert sunflowers and shot selfies against the backdrop of yellow blooms that looked almost neon in contrast to the brown landscape. A mother jumped in the air as her daughter snapped her photo among yellow brittlebushes. 

Blooms draw insects, birds 

The blooms are attracting hungry sphinx moth caterpillars that munch through acres. The caterpillars in turn are attracting droves of Swainson hawks on their annual 6,000-mile (9,656-kilometer) migration from Argentina.

“It’s an amazing burst in the cycle of life in the desert that has come because of a freakish event like a super bloom,” Haddock said. “It’s exciting. This is going to be so huge for our economy.”

Desert super blooms always draw crowds, but lifetime residents said they’ve never seen the natural wonder attract tens of thousands like this time. The park is about a two-hour drive from San Diego and three hours from Los Angeles. 

A lot of rain, a lot of blooms

This year’s display has been especially stunning, experts say. The region received 6½ inches (165 millimeters) of rain from December to February, followed by almost two weeks of 90-degree temperatures, setting the conditions for the super bloom. Five years of drought made the seeds ready to pop. 

Humans also helped. Park staff, volunteers and female prisoners have been removing the Saharan Mustard plant, an invasive species believed brought to California in the 1920s with another plant, the date palm. Saharan Mustard stole the thunder of another super bloom six years ago, said Jim Dice, research manager at the Anza-Borrego Desert Research Center.

“It completely took over the usual wildflower fields and starved out the wildflowers so what we had were giant fields of ugly mustard plant,” Dice said. “That galvanized the community, which depends on tourism largely brought in during the good wildflower years.”

Lia Wathen, a 35-year-old investigator in San Diego, took a Monday off from work so she wouldn’t miss the desert flowers.

“Any single color that you can think of, you’re going to find it right here,” said Wathen, walking with her Maltese dogs, Romeo and Roxy, before stopping to examine a magenta bloom on a spikey Cholla cactus.

Sandra Reel and her husband drove hundreds of miles out of their way when they heard about the super bloom. 

“It is absolutely phenomenal to see this many blooming desert plants all at the same time,” she said. “I think it’s probably a once-in-a-lifetime thing.” 
…

Hundreds of ships are switching off their tracking devices and taking unexplained routes, raising concern the trafficking of arms, migrants and drugs is going undetected.

Ninety percent of the world’s trade is carried by sea. Every vessel has an identification number administered by the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization or IMO. But crews are able to change the digital identity of their ship, making it possible to conceal previous journeys.

The Israeli firm Windward has developed software to track the changes. Its CEO, Ami Daniel, showed VOA several examples of suspicious shipping activity, including one vessel that changed its entire identity in the middle of a voyage from a Chinese port to North Korea.

“It’s intentionally changing all of identification numbers. Also its name, and its size, and its flag and its owner. Everything that’s recognizable in its digital footprint. This is obviously someone who is trying to circumvent sanctions [on North Korea],” says Daniel.

Transfers at sea

In a joint investigation with the Times of London newspaper, Windward showed that in January and February more than 1,000 cargo transfers took place at sea. Security experts fear traffickers are transporting drugs, weapons, and even people.

Suspicious activity can be highlighted by comparing a vessel’s journey with all its previous voyages. In mid-January a Cyprus-flagged ship designed to carry fish deviated from its usual route between West Africa and northern Europe to visit Ukraine, deactivating its tracking system on several occasions.

“It’s leaving Ukraine, transiting all through the Bosphorus Straits into Europe, then drifting off Malta,” explains Daniel, as the Windward system plots the route of the reefer [refrigerated] vessel on the screen. “On the way it turns off transmission a few times … then it comes into this place east of Gibraltar. This area is known for ship-to-ship transfers and smuggling, because of the proximity to North Africa.”

Under global regulations all vessels must report their last port of call when arriving in a new port.

“But as you can understand, when it does ship-to-ship transfers here, it doesn’t actually call into any port, right, because it’s the middle of the ocean. So it’s finding a way to bypass what it already has to report to the authorities,” Daniel said.

Finally the vessel sails to a remote Scottish island called Islay, but again it anchors around 400 meters off a tiny deserted bay. The specific purpose of this voyage hasn’t yet been identified.

Lack of political will

Daniel shows another example of a vessel leaving the Libyan port of Tobruk before drifting just off the Greek island of Crete, raising suspicions that it is involved in people smuggling.

But he says using information like this to investigate suspicious shipping activities requires political will as well as technological advances.

“Regulation, coordination, legislation. And then proof in the court of law. And not all of this necessarily exists. The high seas, which means 200 nautical miles onwards by definition, are not regulated right now. The U.N. is still working on it.”

Meanwhile the scale of smuggling around the United States’ coastline was underlined this month, as the Coast Guard intercepted 660 kilos of cocaine off the coast of Florida, with a street value of an estimated $420 million.

 
…

Hundreds of ships are switching off their tracking devices and taking unexplained routes, raising concern that the trafficking of arms, migrants and drugs is going undetected. New technology enables authorities to follow the routes of suspect vessels, but security experts say taking on the smugglers will require greater coordination. Henry Ridgwell reports.
…

Qatar Airways is offering loaner laptops to its business class passengers in the wake of a U.S. ban on them on flights from several countries.

“As an award-winning and global airline we truly appreciate the importance of being able to work on board our aircraft and that is why I have insisted on offering only the best possible solution for our customers,” said Akbar Al Baker, the company’s CEO. “By providing this laptop loan service we can ensure that our passengers on flights to the US can continue to work whilst on-board. This unique ability to offer ‘business as usual’, above and beyond the competition, is yet another example of Qatar Airways justification for being the ‘World’s Best Business Class.’”

A news statement from the airline did not say what kind of computers the loaners will be, nor what software will be available. Photos posted with the statement show a MacBook Pro.

The airline says customers will be able to bring their own USB sticks so they can have access to documents they may be working on.

In a nod to economy passengers, the airline says it will offer one hour of free wi-fi as well as full wi-fi access for the entire flight for $5.

The ban on devices, which as announced earlier this month, includes tablets, e-readers, portable DVD players or any electronic device bigger than a smartphone.

The policy only covers nonstop flights to the U.S. from 10 airports in North Africa and the Middle East. Some of the airports include busy hubs like Istanbul, Turkey, and Dubai in the UAE.

Flights to these destinations from the U.S. are not subject to the ban.

Other airlines affected by the ban are taking similar steps. Emirates is letting passengers use laptops up to the moment they board, and Etihad is offering free wi-fi and iPads to its premium customers.
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U.S. economic growth was a little stronger that first thought in the last few months of 2016.

Thursday’s updated report from the Commerce Department says the economy grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate in October, November and December.  Growth was helped by stronger consumer spending.

PNC Bank economist Gus Faucher says the world’s largest economy is in “solid shape” and expects growth will be stronger this year than in 2016.

During the campaign, U.S. President Donald Trump promised to boost economic growth to four percent or better by cutting taxes and regulations, and boosting investment in roads and bridges.  Many private economists doubt this growth rate can be achieved.  Some argue that Trump’s stimulus efforts cannot overcome the economic drag from slow productivity growth and an aging workforce that is losing members to retirement.  

A separate report from the Labor Department said new unemployment claims declined by 3,000.

The data show that the total number of applications for unemployment (258,000) is still low enough to show a healthy labor market.  The number of jobless claims has been below 300,000 for more than two years, the longest stretch since 1970 when the labor force was smaller.  
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A group of strawberry pickers from Bangladesh has won a case against Greece at Europe’s highest human rights court, after being shot at by employers for demanding unpaid wages.

The Council of Europe’s Court of Human Rights ruled Thursday in favor of 42 Bangladeshi nationals, and ordered the Greek state to pay them damages of 12,000-16,000 euros ($13,000-$17,000) each for having “failed in its obligations to prevent the situation of human trafficking, to protect the victims.”

The 2013 incident occurred near the southern Greek town of Manolada, 260 kilometers (160 miles) west of Athens, when more than 20 migrant strawberry pickers were shot and wounded by foremen wielding shotguns after demanding delayed pay.

The European case was launched after a Greek court convicted two of the shooting suspects but they were released pending their appeal.

Morsed Chowdury, the lead applicant in the European case, and the human rights watchdog Amnesty International welcomed the decision taken by the court in Strasbourg, France.

“We are very pleased and excited by today’s judgment. The Greek court’s acquittal of the farmers for the crime of forced labor was a great disappointment to us,” Chowdury said.

“We hope that the Greek government will learn from our experiences and recognize our important role in the Greek economy.”

The shootings were widely publicized, highlighting the frequent mistreatment of migrant workers in Greek farming jobs.

“Today’s judgment is an important vindication for them and their families and will hopefully help prevent future abuse,” Amnesty International’s Gauri van Gulik told the AP.

“Amnesty has met and interviewed the migrant workers about their exploitation in 2013 just after the incident and saw for ourselves their living conditions.”
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Farmers around the world are using an unsustainable amount of well water to irrigate their crops, which could lead to an uptick in food prices as that water runs low, international researchers warned Wednesday.

Farmers are increasing their use of groundwater to grow staple crops such as rice, wheat and cotton, the scientists said. But much of that water use is unsustainable, as water is being pumped out faster than it can be naturally replenished.

“Groundwater depletion is increasing rapidly, especially in the last 10, 20 years, due to the increasing populations and also associated food production,” said Yoshihide Wada, deputy water program director at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, a science organization in Austria.

The shortages are occurring in some big agricultural producers such as India, China and the United States, he said.

But they could have an impact on a much wider area of the world because “much of the agricultural production is traded internationally,” he said.

An estimated 11 percent of crops irrigated with nonrenewable groundwater are traded internationally after harvest, the researchers said in a report published in the journal Nature.

Countries such as Pakistan, Iran and India, which use the most groundwater to grow food, are already suffering from water scarcity, the report said.

For many countries “it doesn’t really make sense that you’re exporting a lot of food that comes from groundwater depletion,” Wada said in an interview with the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Effect on food prices

Unsustainable use of groundwater could lead to rising future food prices, as countries are forced to spend more money to find water to irrigate their crops, he said.

Depleted supplies of groundwater could also hurt local people, who rely on the water for day-to-day use and for other things, including fighting fires or dealing with other emergencies, the scientists said.

Droughts, which are expected to increase as a result of climate change, could also increase the shortages of groundwater and affect food supplies, lead author Carole Dalin added in a statement.

“Where and how the products are grown is crucial, and basic foods like rice and bread could have a damaging impact on global water supplies,” said Dalin, a research fellow at University College London’s Institute for Sustainable Resources.

Unless both food producers and food buyers adopt strategies to use water more wisely, “most of the world’s population risks seeing increased food prices or disrupted food supply,” she warned.

Wada said governments should more closely monitor the use of groundwater and invest in things like drip irrigation technology, which can dramatically cut water use, to better prepare for the future and conserve natural resources.
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Venezuela has arrested a senior manager of state oil company PDVSA on suspicion of “irregularities” in contracts to supply fuel to the domestic market, authorities said on Wednesday.

The detention of international commerce manager Marco Malave, 47, followed a shakeup of personnel at PDVSA’s trade department since January and amid gasoline shortages around the South American OPEC nation last week.

“PDVSA representatives denounced a series of irregularities in the protocol for contracting companies with vessels to supply the referred hydrocarbon to the Venezuelan market,” the state prosecutor’s office said in a statement.

The situation affected fuel distribution in seven states, including the capital Caracas, it said. Malave was arrested last week in Caracas and his bank accounts have been frozen.

Vow to battle corruption

President Nicolas Maduro’s socialist government and Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., familiarly known as PDVSA, have repeatedly vowed to take steps to combat corruption, which has affected Venezuela and its oil industry for decades.

Earlier this month, the heads of Venezuela-based subcontracting companies Castillo Max and Guevara Training were arrested and charged with corruption for overbilling in equipment sales at the main oil-exporting port Jose.

Jesus Osorio, the former manager of Jose terminal, was jailed in February over the purchase of two floating platforms costing $76.2 million.

Opposition leaders have said that PDVSA has been crippled by malfeasance under 18 years of socialist rule.

A probe last year by the opposition-run Congress said $11 billion had gone missing from PDVSA. The government dismissed that as part of a right-wing smear campaign.

Change at the top?

Rumors are rife inside PDVSA and in the wider oil sector that company president Eulogio del Pino may depart soon, to be replaced by Oil Minister Nelson Martinez. There has been no official word on this. Attempts to reach Del Pino have been unsuccessful.

“Del Pino’s apparent replacement Nelson Martinez is part of this broader trend of promoting loyalists,” Eurasia consultancy analyst Risa Grais-Targow wrote in a report on Wednesday.

“Martinez is close to Maduro, who has long wanted him to head PDVSA. Martinez represents the most viable alternative to Del Pino considering a shallow bench of skilled oil sector technocrats.”
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A study by U.S. economic experts and a major health insurance company says a healthy population is a key ingredient in a healthy and growing economy.

Blue Cross and Moody’s Analytics used data from millions of insurance customers to draw a statistical relationship between health and prosperity in the United States.

In counties throughout the 50 states where the population had top health scores, per capita incomes were nearly $4,000 a year higher than in counties where people had just average health scores.  

Unemployment showed a similar pattern: The healthiest counties had a jobless rate eight-tenths of a percent better than communities where health was average. Economic growth also was measurably stronger in the healthiest areas.

The report’s authors cautioned that the statistical correlation did not prove that healthier people cause a stronger economy, but it did make researchers suspect that such a relationship exists. The report also noted that healthier people lose less time from work and bring better skills to the job, because they didn’t miss school lessons.

Obamacare debate

The report came in the midst of a long-running national debate among American lawmakers about how to devise and pay for a system of health insurance.

Since President Donald Trump took office, his Republican Party has been planning to repeal the Affordable Care Act that former President Barack Obama signed into law seven years ago, claiming it is ineffective and financially ruinous.

The sentiment among lawmakers in Congress conflicted with many American families’ feelings about the value of the ACA, also known as Obamacare, and a divided Republican majority in Congress proved unable to repeal or replace the law.
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California and a dozen other states could be heading for a showdown with the federal government as the Trump administration reviews rules on fuel efficiency and vehicle emissions, rules President Donald Trump has said curtail growth in the auto industry.

California has a waiver under federal law to set its own standards, and other states have the option to follow them.

California has been a leader in promoting fuel-efficient cars and sport utility vehicles, and the state says it will keep its strict standards, despite a review of federal regulations ordered by Trump.

Separately, the president signed an executive order Tuesday to reduce the federal role in regulating carbon emissions in the energy industry to promote “energy independence,” although scientists view carbon emission from fossil fuels as a major cause of global warming.

Vehicle fuel standards were strengthened in the final days of the Obama presidency, as the administration hurriedly completed a review of fuel economy targets through 2025, imposing goals that bring a corresponding reduction in tail-pipe emissions.  

Fueled by 1973 oil embargo

Therese Langer of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy says Obama was continuing a process that started in California in the 1960s, then moved to the rest of the country with federal legislation.

After the Arab oil embargo of 1973, Congress set targets with the CAFE, or Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards.

Langer says the rules helped reduce dependence on foreign oil, but “the dominant effect of bringing down that pollution from tail pipes of cars through a combination of changes to the cars and changes to the fuel is a human health benefit. And it’s really hard to overstate how dramatic that has been over the years.”

CAFE fuel economy standards are locked in through 2021, but the Trump administration is reconsidering the rules for the following years through 2025.

Supporters say strict standards help to cut the greenhouse gases that are fueling global warming, save consumers money, and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil.

The president says he wants to cut government regulations.

Thomas Pyle of the industry-aligned American Energy Alliance says the president’s review will ask, “How [do] you balance the desire for fuel efficiency, for more fuel-efficient vehicles, with other things that are important when consumers go and purchase vehicles, such as size, safety, whether or not they need a truck for their job.”

Environmentalists push electric cars

Existing standards aim to improve fuel economy by promoting hybrid gasoline-electric and battery-powered electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles, or EVs, are just one percent of the market and pose a special challenge. Environmentalists say they have great promise, but need government incentives to spur development.

Laura Renger oversees air and climate issues for Southern California Edison, and she says the electric utility company is doing its part.

Renger drives an electric car to work and charges it outside the company office. She says EV drivers like her feel “range anxiety,” but the utility is installing 1,500 charging stations where people park their cars, “on campuses, work places, and shopping centers.”

Other companies are engaged in similar programs.

Renger says the market will expand as battery technology gets better and the charging infrastructure grows.

Critics say that government subsidies for electric vehicles are not needed, and Pyle, of the American Energy Alliance, says people who drive EVs can afford to do it without tax breaks.

Finding ‘the right balance’

Jessica Caldwell of the auto research site Edmunds.com disagrees, and she says online behavior shows that buyers are sensitive to price and are looking for incentives.

“People in real time are very deal oriented,” she said, “so my fear is if you take away the federal subsidy, this market is really going to collapse,” she said.

California says it has no intention of removing its subsidies.

Langer, of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, says current government fuel-and-emission standards help consumers.

“If you look at the whole time period for which the standards were adopted under the last administration, that’s model year 2012 through 2025,” she said, “the consumer savings from buying less gasoline exceed a trillion dollars.”

But critics like Pyle ask, “What is the right balance, and who makes those choices, the government, or consumers and the auto industry together?”

He applauds Trump’s goal of improving the productivity of the energy and auto industries.

Twelve other states and the U.S. capital now follow the California standards, and if federal rules are weakened, car makers confusingly could face two different sets of vehicle standards, one based on California’s rules and one on Washington’s.
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Trump administration trade officials want a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement to improve access for U.S. farm products, manufactured goods and services in Canada and Mexico, said lawmakers who met with them Tuesday.

Members of the House Ways and Means Committee met with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and acting U.S. Trade Representative Stephen Vaughn to discuss the administration’s plans for renegotiating the 23-year-old trade deal.

Representative Bill Pascrell, a New Jersey Democrat, said Ross told lawmakers in the closed-door session that the administration was still aiming to complete NAFTA renegotiations by the end of 2017.

‘Ambitious’ schedule

That time frame is viewed by some members as “ambitious,” especially because it is not clear when the administration will formally notify Congress of its intention to launch NAFTA renegotiations, Pascrell said.

The notification will trigger a 90-day consultation period before substantial talks can begin. Tuesday’s meeting was a legal requirement to prepare the notification and preserve the “fast track” authority for approving a renegotiated deal with only an up-or-down vote in Congress.

President Donald Trump has long vilified NAFTA as draining millions of manufacturing jobs to Mexico, and he has vowed to quit the trade pact unless it can be renegotiated to shrink U.S. trade deficits.

Lawmakers said Ross and Vaughn discussed broad negotiating objectives, but did not get into specific issues such as U.S. access to Canada’s dairy sector or rules of origin for parts used on North American-assembled vehicles.

Key objectives

Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican, told reporters that market access, modernizing NAFTA and “holding trading partners accountable” were key objectives articulated by Ross and Vaughn.

“They were very clear. They want to open access in ag, manufacturing and services as well, so they want this to be a 21st-century agreement,” Brady said.

Spokesmen for the Commerce Department and USTR were not immediately available for comment on the meeting.

Lawmakers said the administration has not settled on the form of the negotiations, whether NAFTA will remain a trilateral agreement or whether it would be split into two bilateral trade deals.

“My sense is that they are not prejudging the form. They are focused on the substance of the agreement itself with Mexico and Canada,” Brady said.

Some lawmakers expressed frustration that the Trump officials were short on specific answers.

“I wouldn’t exactly call this meeting as moving the ball forward very much,” said Representative Ron Kind, a Wisconsin Democrat.
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