At the height of the crisis over Catalonia’s secession drive last year, thousands of companies moved their legal headquarters out of the region, the Madrid stock market and government bonds took a hit, and the Spanish

state came under strong pressure.

Nearly a year later, the organizers of an illegal referendum on independence for Catalonia are in jail or in self-imposed exile, Spain has a new prime minister, and the economy has stabilized. But the situation remains tense and could flare up any time.

Danger for economy

Despite the crisis, Catalonia remains one of Spain’s main economic powerhouses and still accounts for around a fifth of national gross domestic product. 

However, a Catalan trade group says hotels in Barcelona have seen revenue fall 14 percent this summer after the city developed a negative reputation internationally, partly as a result of political instability.

Data also showed fewer new businesses were created in Catalonia and international investment had dropped, putting the region on track to fall behind Madrid in terms of economic output for the first time.

More than 3,000 firms have shifted their headquarters outside the region, many to Madrid. The risk is that the uncertainty over investments in Catalonia will translate into a slow economic decline.

Impact on politics

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who ousted the conservative Mariano Rajoy in June, remains opposed to independence for Catalonia, something the Spanish constitution does not allow.

Sanchez has, however, adopted a softer tone and offered to hold a wide-ranging dialogue that could lead to drafting a new statute of autonomy that Catalans would have the opportunity to adopt or reject by referendum.

Catalonia’s new leader, Quim Torra, last week dismissed the idea that this could be a way forward and instead called on Sanchez to accept a legally binding referendum on independence.

Because Sanchez needs Torra’s party votes in the national parliament to pass the annual budget bill, a failure to find common ground in Catalonia would most likely spill over to national politics in Madrid — and possibly trigger a snap national election in early 2019.

Will issue go away?

According to a survey released in July, 46.7 percent of Catalans want their region to become an independent state, while 44.9 percent oppose this solution.

The proportions of those who favor and those who oppose independence has remained roughly stable over the last four years, meaning the issue is unlikely to go away any time soon.

Catalonia also elected a new regional parliament this year in which separatist forces retained a majority of seats. The trials of jailed separatist leaders should keep the Catalan question at the top of the political agenda for the time being.
…

Italy and Austria issued sharp retorts to the new U.N. human rights chief Tuesday over her plans to send in teams to investigate the treatment of migrants, with Italy saying the move is “inappropriate, unfounded and unjust.”

A foreign ministry statement recalled all the praise Italy has received over the years for rescuing migrants, providing assistance projects in migrants’ home countries and cracking down on Libyan-based smuggling networks that have greatly reduced the number of arrivals.

The ministry said it hoped the data “will help the newly installed high commissioner” understand Italy’s commitment and its track record.

Former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, who took over as U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights last week, announced plans to send teams to Italy and Austria to examine the treatment of migrants after her first major address Monday.

In Vienna on Tuesday, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz demanded “clarification” from the U.N. of “what human rights violations” are suspected in Austria, the Austria Press Agency reported.

“It is particularly important to clear up how and why the decision came about that Austria in particular should be examined,” he added. Kurz said he would defend Austria against any unjustified suspicion.

Amid such protests, Ravina Shamdasani, a spokeswoman for the U.N. human rights office, said it was “not unusual at all” for it to deploy teams to countries, saying they often conduct “working-level visits to various countries where we see that there are human rights concerns for them to look at.”

She told reporters in Geneva that rights office teams were dispatched to Bulgaria, France, Greece and Macedonia as well as Italy in 2016.

Shamdasani said she did not have precise dates for the visits to Austria and Italy, but “I’m told it’s a matter of weeks.”
…

Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting his Chinese counterpart at an economic forum in the far eastern port city of Vladivostok today as armed forces from both countries descend on eastern Siberia to launch Moscow’s largest-ever military drills.

Russia’s week-long deployment alongside Chinese and Mongolian troops, known as “Vostok-2018” (East-2018), comes at a time of heightened tensions between Moscow and the West over accusations of Russian interference in Western affairs and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.

Comparing this week’s show of force to the Soviet Union’s 1981 war games during which between 100,000 and 150,000 Warsaw Pact soldiers took part in “Zapad-81” (West-81)—the largest military exercises of the Soviet era—Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said these exercises will be even larger, with 300,000 soldiers, 36,000 military vehicles, 1,000 planes and 80 warships taking part in the drills.

China’s participation in the quadrennial war games, while comparatively modest with only 3,200 men and 900 weapons units, is also unprecedented, leading some to view it as an unequivocal warning to the United States and Europe.

“It sends a signal to Washington that if the U.S. continues on its current course by pressuring Russia and imposing more sanctions, Russia will fall even more into the firm embrace of China, America’s only strategic competitor in the 21st century,” Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Institute in Moscow recently told The Associated Press, adding that Beijing’s participation indicates that Russia and China no longer view each other as military threats.

Other experts, however, disagree, questioning both the transparency of Vostok-2018 troop estimates and the political significance of China’s inaugural participation.

“Numbers and figures for these kinds of exercises are typically what we might call to be true lies, in that they’re statistical lies whereby the Russian army’s General Staff tallies every single unit-formation that either sends somebody to the exercise or has some tangential command component in it,” said Michael Kofman, Russia and Eurasia security and defense analyst at the Washington-based Kennan Institute.

“This basically means that if a brigade sends one battalion, then they count the whole brigade,” he told VOA. “So these numbers are not entirely fictional, but you have to divide them by a substantial amount to get any sense of how big the exercise actually is.”

“And they typically revise the numbers after the fact,” Kofman added. “For example, originally after Vostok 2014, they said that they had 100,000 participants, and then I guess they decided it wasn’t impressive enough, because they later posted an official figure of 155,000.”

Different methodologies for calculating troop numbers further complicate efforts to assess troop counts.

“It’s very hard to tell beforehand just how big these exercises are going to be,” said Jeffrey Edmonds of Arlington-based CNA Analysts. A former Russia director for the National Security Council and CIA military analyst, Edmonds told VOA that while some observers may tally only uniformed troops, others might include deployment of military-civilian reserves.

“It could also be, you know, ‘Is perhaps this other unit that’s operating along the Western front actually part of the operation in the East?’ Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. So, different people can come up with different figures.”

The purpose of the nearly week-long drills, however, is unambiguous. Like top NATO officials who have denounced Vostok-2018 as an “exercise in large-scale conflict,” multiple experts described the event as a first-of-its-kind rehearsal for a post-Cold War global confrontation.

“The point of the exercise is really to test Russia’s ability to conduct a large-scale conflict, and one that may involve a nuclear component,” Kofman told VOA. “It’s also designed to stress-test the entire Russian political-military network in terms of mobilization, dealing with reserves and assessing how civilian-military authorities would react and respond in the event of a large-scale conventional war.”

Despite the seemingly more imminent risk of conflict across eastern Europe—Baltic nations have been on high alert since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, and some 2,200 Ukrainian, American and NATO soldiers recently conducted drills in western Ukraine—the Russian military’s Achilles Heel, geographically speaking, lies to the far east.

“The far east is unique compared to the other [Russian] military districts because it is so distant from Russian infrastructure and population centers,” said Kofman, who described the sparsely populated military jurisdiction as “designed and intended to fight as its own, almost separate military, which is why it has so many ground-force formations.”

“That’s another part of this exercise: to test how well that district can hold a potential fight and be reinforced from the central military district in the event of a large-scale conflict or horizontal escalation against Russia,” he said. “That even though much of the security conversation on Russia is focused in Europe, the majority of U.S. power projection and most of America’s strongest allies are in the Asia-Pacific region.”

And although Russia and China have increased military-to-military contact in recent years, annually engaging in smaller snap military drills, few analysts equate Chinese participation in Vostok-2018 with the emergence of a formal military alliance between the two countries.

“Russia has no chance of a formal military alliance with China, and not because Russia doesn’t want it,” said Moscow-based military analyst Aleksander Goltz. “This China very clearly and resolutely refuses any military alliances and commitments. And while Beijing may be ready to develop some military cooperation with Russia, as well as with other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization”—an economic and security pact between China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—”it is only in very limited ways defined by Beijing parameters.”

Edmonds described Vostok-2018 as part of Russia’s ongoing efforts to modernize its forces.

“Maybe the announcements of how big it’s going to be is a reaction to hostilities with the West, but the actual exercise itself is a pretty standard Russian military activity.”

Kofman, too, suggested China’s involvement has less to do with emerging geopolitical dynamics than with regional necessities.

“If you’re going to do large-scale military exercises like this today in the far east, especially when considering Russia’s set strategy of trying to form a balancing entente with China on the basis of mutual antagonism toward and shared security concerns about the United States, the only logical course of action is to invite the Chinese to participate in this exercise,” Kofman told VOA. “Otherwise, [China would] will inherently view this exercise as having to do with them, or at least they would be suspicious.”

“Another part of it, of course, is that both sides are signaling to the United States that their military cooperation is not only growing but that their individual bilateral problems in their respective relationships with the United States are driving them toward greater cooperation, which is definitely not in America’s interest,” he added. “So, the joint military exercises are not necessarily signs that some sort of formal alliance is forming, but these are incremental steps, so it’s important to view them in aggregate.”

Which is to say, he suggested, the longer term trend-line of Russian-Chinese cooperation may reveal more than the drills themselves.

“Over time, an entente between these two countries could be more likely to become a reality than not.”

Wire news outlets have reported that Vostok-2018 will see Russian forces field Su-34 and Su-35 fighter planes, T-80 and T-90 tanks, and nuclear-capable Iskander missiles. At sea, the Russian fleet is expected to deploy several frigates equipped with Kalibr missiles that have been used in Syria.

Last week, Russia held military exercises in the Mediterranean, where more than 25 warships and some 30 planes took part in the drills, as Russia increased its military presence in Syria where it intervened to help the Bashar al-Assad regime in 2015.

Upon publication, NATO officials were still considering Moscow’s invitation to send observers to the drills, which will wind down September 15.

The Russian president is scheduled to observe the drills after the Vladivostok forum, where Putin, President Xi Jinping and other regional leaders are expected to discuss trade and North Korea.

This story originated in VOA’s Russian Service. Yulia Savchenko contributed original reporting. Some information is from AP and Reuters.
…

European countries must not rush to repatriate Afghan refugees to their increasingly insecure homeland or blame their community for isolated crimes such as recent deadly attacks in Germany and in France, the top U.N. refugee official said on Monday.

Two Afghans have been detained in Germany on suspicion of killing a 22-year-old German man, the public prosecutor’s office said on Sunday.

French police detained a man who wounded several people in a knife attack in central Paris on Sunday, police and judicial sources said on Monday. The attacker, who a police source said was from Afghanistan, stabbed tourists and passersby.

Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, said that sending Afghan refugees home was a “complex issue in Europe” — despite a spate of suicide bombs and attacks across Afghanistan, including by the Taliban and Islamic State.

“There is a lot of pressure for Afghans to return. Our advice is to carry out this process with great caution because conditions from the security point of view are deteriorating,” he told a news conference on return from Afghanistan.

Grandi, asked whether he feared any backlash against Afghan nationals in Europe, said: “If anybody who is either an asylum seeker or a refugee commits crimes, this person has to be excluded from the (asylum) process or from refugee status.”

UNHCR spokeswoman Melissa Fleming later clarified that such exclusion applies only when a serious crime has been committed before the asylum seeker enters a country, and is then taken into account during the asylum process, before the person is determined to be a refugee. Refugee status is retained when a refugee commits a crime in the asylum country, but that person is subject to prosecution.

Grandi said suspects must bear the full force of law, but voiced concern that an entire community could be blamed for the crimes of an individual, or the issue manipulated for political purposes.

“This is very dangerous, because asylum seekers and refugees in their overwhelming majority do not commit crimes, and are particularly vulnerable to discrimination.”

Pakistan and Iran together host some 2.5 million Afghan refugees, but only 12,000 returned home so far this year against 40,000-50,000 at this time in 2017, according to his agency.

Some 40,000 people were killed or maimed in the past 4 years of conflict in Afghanistan and 170,000 people newly-displaced this year alone, U.N. emergency humanitarian coordinator Mark Lowcock said.

He welcomed talks between the government of President Ashraf Ghani and Taliban insurgents, saying they needed to be supported.

“That probably is also the single biggest thing that will contribute to better economic prospects and people feeling more confident about the prospects and then that is what will be biggest driver in Afghans feeling they can go home,” he added.
…

Hundreds of thousands of Catalans are expected to fill the streets of Barcelona on Tuesday for the Spanish region’s first commemorative day since its leader declared independence last year and pitched the country into constitutional crisis.

Supporters of splitting the wealthy northeastern region from the rest of Spain have in recent years used the September 11 “Diada,” the anniversary of the fall of their coastal capital to Spanish forces in 1714, to promote the cause.

This year, Catalonia’s leader Quim Torra, who took over from his exiled predecessor after Madrid ended an unprecedented period of direct rule, has called for a mass rally in support of his bid for a binding referendum on independence.

“Our government has committed to making the republic a reality,” Torra said in a televised address to mark the occasion. “I wish you all a very good Diada. Long live free Catalonia.”

He wore a yellow ribbon signifying support for nine politicians whose jailing for their role in the independence bid is one of the Catalan government’s biggest grievances.

Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who took power in June, has taken a softer approach to one of the thorniest issues in national politics than that of his conservative predecessor Mariano Rajoy, but he has stood firm against allowing a vote on secession, or any unilateral attempt by Catalonia to secede.

Last year’s Diada, in which marchers often climb on each other’s shoulders in shows of the traditional sport of forming human towers, fell as the regional government was preparing to hold a referendum in defiance of Madrid, which ultimately sent riot police to try to stop the vote.

Torra’s predecessor and ally Carles Puigdemont then declared independence, prompting Madrid to impose direct rule on the grounds that Barcelona had violated the 1978 constitution which states that the country is indivisible.

Extra police will be deployed during the anniversaries of events in the independence bid. The government’s regional delegate, asked last week about 600 agents being sent as reinforcements, said this was the normal approach to scheduled rallies.

Divisions over the question of secession are stark in Catalonia, which makes up around one fifth of Spain’s economic output and already has a high level of autonomy in areas including education and health, and its own police force.

A poll by the Centro d’Estudis d’Opinio in July showed 46.7 percent of Catalans surveyed saying they wanted an independent state, just ahead of 44.9 percent who did not.

Last year’s banned referendum delivered a majority vote for independence, but turnout was low.

A pro-secession coalition regained control of the regional parliament at a regional election in December that Rajoy had hoped would put paid to the independence bid, but a staunchly pro-union party emerged as the single biggest winner.
…

Final results from Sweden’s parliamentary election Sunday are expected later in the week, but preliminary results have one of Europe’s most liberal nations making a turn to the right and wondering how it will form a government.

The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats that wants the country to leave the European Union and impose a freeze on immigration, appears poised to become the third largest party in parliament.

With most ballots counted, the ruling center-left Social Democrats have 28 percent of the vote, trailed by the Moderates with 19 percent and the nationalist Sweden Democrats with almost 18 percent.

The Social Democrats and the Moderates have said they will not consider the Sweden Democrats, a party with roots in the neo-Nazi fringe, as a coalition partner.

The Moderates say they will form a coalition government and have called on Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, a Social Democrat, to step down.

Lofven said the election presented “a situation that all responsible parties must deal with,” and added that “a party with roots in Nazis” would “never ever offer anything responsible, but hatred.”

Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson declared victory at a supporters’ rally saying, “We will gain huge influence over what happens in Sweden during the coming weeks, months and years”.

Ahead of the election, Lofven had warned, “The haters are mobilizing in Sweden and are egging on people against people. … We will resist. We will stand up for equality.”

Sweden, like most of Europe, has been hit by an influx of asylum-seekers, who are fleeing mainly from the Middle East, South Asia and Africa.

The influx of 163,000 asylum-seekers in Sweden in 2015 has polarized voters and fractured a cozy political consensus.

Pollsters had warned that the far-right Sweden Democrats could end up winning veto power over which parties form the next government.

Magnus Blomgren a social scientist at Umea University, said, “Traditional parties have failed to respond to the sense of discontent that exists.”

 
…

French police have arrested a man who wounded seven people, including two British tourists, in Paris late Sunday.

Reuters news agency quoted a judicial source saying there was no indication the attack was terror related. It also reported that four of those wounded were in serious condition.

Witnesses told Agence France Presse the man was also carrying an iron bar.

The incident reportedly took place at 2100 UTC in northeast Paris.
…

Thousands of Russians rallied against government-backed pension reforms and hundreds of them faced arrest Sunday, as Kremlin-backed candidates for the powerful mayor’s post in Moscow as well as a majority of regional governorships appeared headed to easy victory in elections scattered across the country.

The split screen images of smiling voters on TV, and protesters facing down baton-wielding police on the internet, once again raised questions about Russia’s system of so-called “managed democracy” in which political freedoms are tolerated, but only to a degree.   

Indeed, while the day saw unexpected results in a handful of races, Sunday’s vote was far more reminiscent of Russia’s March presidential elections, which saw President Vladimir Putin dominate the field after Russia’s Elections Commission weeded potential rivals from the race well in advance of election day. 

“This is not an election.  We see this as a reappointment,” said Dmitry Gudkov, the leader of the Party of Change, whose own candidacy to compete against Moscow’s incumbent mayor Sergey Sobyanin was derailed by “municipal filters” aimed at keeping critical voices off the ballot.

With only Kremlin-approved challengers allowed into the race, even seasoned political observers admitted they found it hard to identify Sobyanin’s competition.

“Honestly, I’m a political analyst and even I don’t know who the other candidates are,” said Anton Orekh, Echo of Moscow’s resident political observer, in an interview with VOA.

“And the majority of residents feel exactly the same,” he added. “It’s always been clear who will win these elections.  It is not even necessary to falsify the results. ”

Preliminary results showed Sobyanin receiving about 70 percent of the vote.

The new Moscow beckons

Mayor Sobyanin’s reelection bid was buoyed by years of Kremlin-funded urbanization projects that have transformed Moscow’s appearance, despite an economy weighed down by Western sanctions and persistent low world oil prices.

New parks and pedestrian walkways, glistening stadiums built for the World Cup 2018, and dozens of new metro stations have increasingly given the city, if not Western-style values, a more Western-style feel.

Sobyanin made a Moscow’s renewal the centerpiece of an otherwise lackluster campaign that featured few appearances and a refusal to participate in debates. President Putin, in turn, has backed Sobyanin’s urbanization projects and urged other regions to follow Moscow’s lead in creating what the Russian leader says should be more “citizen friendly” environments.

Protests and Arrests

Even amid what appeared to be landslide victories for a majority of pro-Kremlin candidates, Russia’s growing economic problems were also on display Sunday.

Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, currently serving a 30-day term for violating the country’s stringent protest laws, called nationwide protests against a proposal to raise the pension age that is deeply unpopular with the public.

The reform has sparked a wave of protests and sent Putin’s polling numbers on a downward slide, despite a televised address by the Russian leader to explain the move as a longterm fiscal necessity. Independent polls find 90 percent of Russians are opposed to the changes.

In Moscow, several thousand protesters gathered in downtown Pushkin Square to chants of “Impeachment,” “Putin is a Thief” and “It’s not reform, it’s robbery.”  Similar rallies were held in dozens of other cities.  They followed nationwide protests organized by Russia’s Communist Party last week.

“The government is robbing from my parents and from my generation as well,” said Andrei Kiripko, 22, a marketing student protesting in Moscow. “All I can do is fight for my country and my children’s future.”

“Unfortunately, many of my generation didn’t show up,” said Sergey, 51, a private business owner who declined to give his last name.  “Everyone I know doesn’t agree with the reform, but they’re not here because they’re scared of what will happen.”

More than 800 arrests were reported in cities across Russia by OVD-INFO, a local rights monitoring group.  Police routinely rounded up Navalny regional supporters in Novosibirsk, Tomsk, and Khabarovsk. In Yekaterinburg, former mayor Evegeny Roizman, a Navalny ally recently removed from his post, was detained by OMON troops for marching with demonstrators.

The authorities response was most aggressive in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, where demonstrators were beaten by baton-wielding OMON troops. The images immediately raised the specter of potential criminal charges and harsh prison sentences to follow.

The battle online

Political battles surrounding the day, meanwhile, extended far beyond the streets and onto social media.

In another sign the Kremlin was taking public discontent seriously, the government exerted pressure on opposition activities through Youtube, which Navalny has effectively harnessed to spread his political ideas, despite being largely banned from state media.

At the request of Russia’s internet governing body Rozkomnadzor, the U.S.-based video service blocked paid Navalny video advertisements in support of the protest, apparently agreeing the videos violated Russia’s “day of silence” law 24 hours ahead of voting.

“We consider all justified appeals from state bodies.  We also require advertisers to act in accordance with the local law and our advertising policies,” explained Google Russia, in an email published by Reuters.

“What Google did presents a clear case of political censorship,” countered Navalny aide Leonid Volkov, who addressed Google’s actions in a post to Facebook.  

Volkov was right, in part. Navalny’s Youtube channel continued to operate throughout Sunday’s events. But the blocked ads again raised questions about Western tech companies’ ability to find a balance between their oft-stated support for free speech and pursuit of business interests in repressive political environments.

 
…

Kosovo has barred Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic from visiting a Serb-populated enclave after dozens of protesters blocked the road to the village he had planned to travel to.

Kosovar Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj said on Facebook on September 9 that the revocation of Vucic’s permission to visit the village of Banje was made in the interests of the safety of citizens.

President Hashim Thaci said on Facebook that he supported the decision but called protests and roadblocks unhelpful as Kosovo and Serbia make efforts for “peace and reconciliation” after the 1998-99 war between the two sides.

Thaci added that the blockade “shows that the pain and war injuries are still fresh.”

The protesters used cars and trucks to block the main road between the city of Mitrovica and the village of Banje, which Vucic was scheduled to visit later on September 9.

They also burned tires and displayed banners that read “Vucic will not pass here” and “You have to apologize for the crimes.”

NATO peacekeepers from Hungary wearing full riot gear and backed by Swiss Army bulldozers were stationed close to the barricade and said they were ready to intervene if they are asked by Kosovar authorities to clear the road.

The NATO-led peacekeeping mission, known as KFOR, said in a statement that it was working with Kosovar authorities to remove the barricade on the road to the Serb-populated village without incident.

“KFOR is working to do it peacefully, but it is ready to intervene…if required,” the mission said in a statement to the Associated Press.

It added that “nobody is threatening Mr. Vucic and his safety was guaranteed.”

Vucic arrived in Kosovo on September 8 for a two-day visit that began a day after a meeting between him and Thaci was canceled because the Serbian president refused to meet.

The failed meeting adds further doubt to a possible land swap between the two countries that was floated by both Belgrade and Pristina last month.

While some EU and U.S. officials have said they support the exchange of territories, Germany and many analysts have said it is a bad idea that could renew old ethnic hostilities throughout the Balkans.

The land swap is also opposed by Kosovo’s ruling coalition and the opposition.

Serbia lost control over Kosovo in 1999 after NATO bombed to stop the killing and expulsion of Albanians by Serbian forces during a two-year counterinsurgency war.

Kosovo declared independence in 2008 and has been recognized by more than 100 countries, but not by Serbia. Normalizing bilateral ties is a key condition for both countries to move toward EU membership.

​Speaking in northern Kosovo on September 8, Vucic said he would continue talks with Kosovar officials but warned it would be difficult to reach a deal that could normalize relations. 

Maja Kocijancic, a spokeswoman for EU foreign-policy chief Federica Mogherini, said in a statement that the EU “regrets the decision” to cancel Vucic’s visit to Banje.

“We ask all those responsible to maintain order and provide secure passings throughout the day. Full commitment to preserving peace and security of the people of Kosovo and the people of Serbia, wisdom and calm is what is needed now,” Kocijancic said.

Kosovo police on September 9 stopped Vucic and his entourage on the road to the Drenica region and informed they would not be allowed to proceed due to security concerns. The region was the site of Serbian forces’ first bloody crackdown on ethnic Albanian separatists in 1998.

Vucic, once a fiery ultranationalist, told members of the Serbian ethnic minority in Mitrovica on September 9 that he would “not hesitate for second when it comes to the need to defend our nation in any part of Kosovo and Metohija if our nation is attacked.”

Belgrade continues to refer to the country as “Kosovo and Metohija,” its official name when it was an autonomous Serbian republic.

“We want Serbian children and schools, teachers, and kindergartens for them,” Vucic said. “I want you to have enough reasons to want to have children. I want maternity wards, playgrounds, roads, and factories, so that in the end you can have everything that will let you stay here.”

But Vucic said that he did not “want to incite war” and “won’t promise arms and ammunition.

“I wish to believe that we can now have an era of rational, and why not in 50 years, friendly relations with the Albanians,” he said.

With reporting by AP, Reuters, and AFP
…

Turkey’s arrests of an American pastor and other Western citizens have thrust its troubled judicial system to the forefront of ties with allies, reinforcing suspicions that the Turkish government is using detainees as diplomatic leverage.

Turkey scoffs at the idea that it treats detained foreigners as foreign policy pawns, and points the finger at the U.S. for cases against Turks in American courts. Turkey’s top appeals court judge weighed in this week, saying only “independent” courts can free pastor Andrew Brunson.

The reality is more complex in a nation where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tightened his grip on the state, including a judiciary purged of thousands of judges and prosecutors after an attempted coup in 2016. Constitutional changes have since expanded Erdogan’s control of judicial appointments, undermining Turkey’s avowals that it wants to mold impartial courts.

There is no evidence that jailed foreigners in Turkey were arrested to be used as “hostages,” and Erdogan could genuinely believe they were acting on behalf of foreign governments against Turkey, said Nicholas Danforth, an analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington.

“In taking and holding prisoners to combat the West’s presumed hostility, Ankara ends up creating the kind of hostility it imagines,” Danforth wrote in a blog post last week.

Recent Turkish court rulings seemed to align with diplomatic outreach to Europe. Two Greek soldiers held for months were freed; Taner Kilic, an Amnesty International representative, was released; and a judge lifted a travel ban on a German of Turkish descent accused of terror offenses.

Conversely, the courts ruled against freeing Brunson, who is accused of links to Kurdish rebels and the 2016 coup plotters, after U.S. economic penalties deepened the Turkish currency’s slide.

A coincidence? Some analysts don’t think so.

“As the crisis with the U.S. heated up and as the economic crisis heated up, Erdogan saw a need to speed up the process of normalization with Europe,” said Howard Eissenstat, an associate professor of Middle East history in Canton, New York.

Eissenstat, also a fellow at the Washington-based Project on Middle East Democracy, speculated that President Donald Trump’s focus on freeing Brunson had backfired, encouraging Turkish officials to think: “‘This guy’s really valuable and we can get a lot for him.'”

For Turkey, “a lot” would be the extradition of Fethullah Gulen, a Muslim cleric who lives in Pennsylvania and denies Turkish allegations that he engineered the coup attempt, which killed nearly 300 people.

Turkey has also criticized the case against Mehmet Hakan Atilla, an official at Turkey’s state-controlled Halkbank who was jailed in the U.S. for helping Iran avoid American sanctions.

Last year, Erdogan floated a possible trade in which the U.S. sends Gulen to Turkey in exchange for the release of Brunson, now under house arrest in the city of Izmir. However, comments on Monday by Ismail Rustu Cirit, the Turkish judge, reflected an official view that Turkey’s sovereignty in the matter is paramount.

“The only and absolute power that can rule on the arrest of a foreign citizen in Izmir and decisions about his trial are the independent and impartial courts,” Cirit said.

The European Union has urged Turkey to guarantee the impartiality of its courts, a key requirement in an EU candidacy bid that stalled years ago.

Judicial reforms more than a decade ago, in the early years of Erdogan’s rule, reduced the power of the military and moved Turkey closer to European standards. But backsliding followed, amid increasing accusations that the ruling party was using the courts to muzzle opponents.

In another twist, internal conflict erupted at the end of 2013 when prosecutors launched an investigation of alleged corruption at the top of the government, a move described by Erdogan’s camp as a power grab by Gulen supporters.

Detainees remain an irritant between Germany and Turkey, which freed Die Welt journalist Deniz Yucel and activist Peter Steudtner. But Turkey still holds a number of Germans for what Berlin considers political reasons.

Turkey, meanwhile, has bemoaned a Greek court’s decision to grant asylum to some servicemen who fled to Greece a day after Turkey’s coup attempt. In a reverse scenario, Turkey would never “shelter” coup plotters acting against Greece, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

Turkey doesn’t have “very much” to show for what may be opportunistic attempts to use detainees as leverage with other countries, according to Eissenstat.

He said there could be a parallel with similar cases in Iran or the former Soviet Union, in which “local officials would sometimes make decisions and then the central government would decide, ‘OK, how does this fit into a larger policy?'”
…

Former British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has compared Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan for Brexit to putting the country’s constitution in a “suicide vest” and handing the detonator to the European Union.

The attack, and Johnson’s choice of language, widened the divide in the governing Conservative Party over Brexit.

Johnson, a strong supporter of Brexit, quit May’s government in July after rejecting her proposal for close economic ties with the bloc after the U.K. leaves next year. His article in the Mail on Sunday ramped up speculation that he plans to challenge her leadership.

But some Conservative colleagues condemned his language.

Foreign Office Minister Alan Duncan tweeted that the comments marked “one of the most disgusting moments in modern British politics” and should be “the political end of Boris Johnson.”
…

Combined support for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative alliance and its partners, the left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD), has hit a

record low for any such “grand coalition” government, according to a survey published Sunday.

Germany’s two biggest and most established parties have had a difficult summer, blighted by infighting over immigration that is flaring up again after violent right-wing protests in the eastern city of Chemnitz followed the fatal stabbing of a German man, for which two migrants were arrested.

The survey by pollster Emnid for the weekly newspaper Bild am Sonntag had support for Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU), down by 1 percentage point on the week, to 29 percent.

In last September’s federal election, the CDU/CSU bloc won 32.9 percent of the vote.

The poll put support for the SPD down 2 percentage points to 17 percent. In the last election, the SPD won 20.5 percent of the vote.

Their combined score of 46 percent was the lowest for any CDU/CSU/SPD coalition — a combination that also held power in 2005-09 and 2013-17 — in Emnid’s poll for the Bild am Sonntag.

The pollster surveyed 2,472 voters between August 30 and September 5.

Support for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) was unchanged from the previous week at 15 percent, the poll showed. The far-left Linke gained a point to 10 percent.

The ecologist Greens were unchanged at 14 percent and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) remained at 9 percent.

Support for other parties rose 2 percentage points to 6 percent.
…

Swedes vote on Sunday in a tight election dominated by fears about asylum and welfare, with the populist, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats vying to become the biggest party in a country long seen as a bastion of economic stability and liberal values.

Far-right parties have made spectacular gains throughout Europe in recent years following a refugee crisis sparked by civil war in Syria and conflicts in Afghanistan and parts of Africa.

In Sweden, the influx of 163,000 asylum seekers in 2015 has polarized voters, fractured the cozy political consensus and could give the Sweden Democrats, a party with roots in the neo-Nazi fringe, a veto over which parties form the next government.

‘Sense of discontent’

“Traditional parties have failed to respond to the sense of discontent that exists,” Magnus Blomgren, a social scientist at Umea University. “That discontent maybe isn’t directly related to unemployment or the economy, but simply a loss of faith in the political system. Sweden isn’t alone in this.”

The center-left bloc, uniting the minority governing Social Democrat and Green parties with the Left Party, is backed by about 40 percent of voters, recent opinion polls indicate, with a slim lead over the center-right Alliance bloc.

The Sweden Democrats, who want the country to leave the European Union and put a freeze on immigration, have about 17 percent support, up from the 13 percent they scored in the 2014 vote, opinion polls suggest.

But their support was widely underestimated before the last election and some online surveys give them as much as 25 percent support, a result that would most likely make them the biggest party, dethroning the Social Democrats for the first time in a century.

That could weaken the Swedish crown in the short term, but analysts do not see any long-term effect on markets from the election as economic growth is strong, government coffers are well-stocked and there is broad agreement about the thrust of economic policy.

Euroskeptic voices

Sweden has flirted with populism before. New Democracy, founded by an aristocrat and a record producer, won nearly 7 percent of the vote in 1991 promising strict immigration policies, cheaper alcohol and free parking, before crashing out of parliament only three years later.

But if the Sweden Democrats get a quarter of the vote, it would be a sensation in a country described as a “humanitarian superpower” by then-Moderate Party Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt in 2014.

It would also make them the biggest populist party in the Nordic region, topping the Danish People’s Party, which got 21 percent support in 2015, and trump the 12.6 percent for the far-right Alternative for Germany, which swept into the Bundestag in 2017.

With an eye on the European Parliament elections next year, Brussels policymakers are watching the vote in Sweden closely, concerned that a nation with impeccable democratic credentials could add to the growing chorus of euroskepticism in the EU.

Sweden took in more asylum seekers per capita than any other country in Europe in 2015, magnifying worries about a welfare system that many voters already believe is in crisis.

Lengthening queues for critical operations, shortages of doctors and teachers, and a police service that has failed to deal with inner-city gang violence have shaken faith in the “Swedish model,” built on a promise of comprehensive welfare and social inclusion.

Akesson’s objectives

Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Akesson has labeled the vote a choice between immigration and welfare.

He has also promised to sink any government that refuses to give his party a say in policy, particularly on immigration.

Mainstream politicians have so far rebuffed him. But with some kind of cooperation between parties in the center-left and center-right blocs the only other alternative out of the current political deadlock, analysts believe Akesson may yet end up with some influence on policy.

With both options unpalatable to the traditional players, forming a government could take weeks.

Polling stations open at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) and close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), with exit polls set be published by Sweden’s two main broadcasters around that time. Results from the vote count will become clear later in the evening.
…

British anti-terrorism officers were helping to investigate a knife attack in a northern English town Saturday in which one man was injured, although police said they were keeping an open mind.

A 28-year-old woman was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder, they said, after what officers earlier called a “serious incident” in Barnsley that resulted in the man suffering minor injuries.

A kitchen knife had been recovered and was being forensically examined, South Yorkshire police said.

“At this stage we are keeping an open mind as to the motivation … we are receiving support from detectives at Counter Terrorism Policing North East,” the police said in a statement.

“The woman is currently being assessed from a mental health perspective,” the police said.

An investigation had begun to establish whether it was an isolated incident and whether the suspect acted alone.

Sections of the town center shopping area where the incident occurred were still cordoned off Saturday as forensics officers clad in white suits gathered evidence.

Police released no further details of the incident, but urged the public to remain vigilant and appealed for witnesses.

“We understand that this morning’s incident will have been distressing and shocking for those in the town center,” said Assistant Chief Constable Tim Forbes. ” … Rest assured we are working relentlessly to piece together

what happened.”
…

Turkey is again warning that a “bloodbath” would result from any Syrian government military offensive on Syria’s last rebel stronghold of Idlib.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeated that warning Friday as a trilateral summit involving his country and Russia, and hosted by Iran, appeared to end in deadlock over efforts to avert conflict in the Idlib enclave.

“We never want Idlib to turn into a bloodbath,” Erdogan said at a news conference with his Russian and Iranian counterparts. “Any attack launched or to be launched on Idlib will result in a disaster, massacre and a very big humanitarian tragedy,” Erdogan added.

Syrian forces have been massing around Idlib, backed by Russian air power and naval might. The Tehran summit was touted as the last chance to avoid the looming military operation. Iran and Russia maintain that Damascus is right to deal with terrorist threats.

“Fighting terrorism in Idlib is an unavoidable part of the mission of restoring peace and stability to Syria,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said at the press conference, adding, “but this battle must not cause civilians to suffer or lead to a scorched earth policy.”

“The legitimate Syrian government has a right and must eventually take control of its entire national territory,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said, supporting his Iranian counterpart.

Russian bombers this week started to target Idlib ahead of an expected ground operation. Around 3 million civilians are believed to be trapped in the enclave bordering Turkey.

Erdogan warned that with Turkey hosting millions of Syrian refugees, it cannot take in any others.

“That [Idlib attack] would lead to a humanitarian wave adding to existing refugees, but because of the nature with Idlib, some of these refugees would be people associated with jihadist groups,” said political analyst Sinan Ulgen, head of the Istanbul-based Edam research institution.

“So it represents not only a humanitarian burden on Turkey, but also a very significant security risk going forward,” he added. “So that is a scenario Turkey wants to prevent and relies on Russia’s support.”

At the Tehran summit, Erdogan proposed a cease-fire in which the radical jihadist groups could be disarmed and removed from the region.

Ankara is one of the main backers of the Syrian rebels, developing strong ties with myriad warring opposition groups. Turkey’s relations with the opposition made it a key partner with Russia and Iran in their efforts to end the Syrian civil war under the so-called “Astana Process.”

Idlib is the last of four de-escalation zones created under the auspices of the Astana Process in which rebels and their families were transferred to designated areas protected by a cease-fire. Much to Ankara’s anger, the other de-escalation zones were overrun by Syrian government forces and Russian airpower, the fate now awaiting Idlib.

Twelve Turkish military outposts are located in the Idlib enclave as part of the agreement to create the de-escalation zone with Tehran and Moscow. Speaking in Tehran, Erdogan reiterated that the military posts were to protect civilians. Some analysts suggest that could be a thinly veiled warning.

On Thursday, Ibrahim Karagol, a columnist closely linked to Erdogan, was more direct. “A possible attack on these military posts (in Idlib) or provocation by the Damascus administration or the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) and other organizations that act in cooperation with the regime will be met with an extremely harsh reaction from Turkey — just as it should be,” wrote Karagolin the pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper. Turkey considers the PKK a terrorist group. The PKK has been waging a long-running insurgency in southeastern Turkey.

Earlier this year, a senior adviser to Erdogan warned against any attack on Idlib, describing it as a “red line.”

In the last couple of weeks, Ankara has been reinforcing its military presence in Idlib, reportedly including deployment of anti-aircraft missiles. Turkish tanks are also being deployed on the enclave’s border, ostensibly to deal with a refugee exodus.

Ankara’s cooperation with Moscow on Syria has been the basis of a broader deepening of bilateral ties, at the same time as U.S.-Turkish relations deteriorate. Ties have been strained in part over Turkey’s detention of a U.S. pastor whose release the United States has demanded. Turkey is calling on the U.S. to extradite a cleric accused of involvement in a 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan. The cleric, Fethullah Gulen, denies the accusation.

Idlib, however, is providing rare common ground between Ankara and Washington, with U.S. President Donald Trump warning against a major offensive on the enclave; however, given what analysts suggest is the improbability of any U.S. military intervention, Ankara will be reluctant to sacrifice its ties with Moscow.

“Ankara needs to be realistic. It cannot totally alienate itself from Russia, given that it still needs Russia as a partner in Syria,” analyst Ulgen said. “Turkey would not want to find itself in a position it can no longer cooperate with Russia, because of their other concerns regarding Syria.”

Addressing one pressing Turkish concern, Rouhani appeared to reach out to Erdogan on Friday, condemning Washington’s military support of a Syrian Kurdish militia, the YPG.

“The illegal presence and interference of America in Syria which has led to the continuation of insecurity in that country, must end quickly,” Rouhani said. Ankara has repeatedly condemned U.S. support of the YPG Kurdish militia in its fight against Islamic State, calling it a terrorist organization linked to the PKK insurgency inside Turkey.

“Terrorists are trying to establish a foothold there with the help of foreign powers and stay there forever,” Erdogan said Friday. “We are very concerned with the attempts by the United States to empower and support those terrorist organizations.”
…

As U.S. ties with Turkey have turned sour, relations between the U.S. and Greece are warming rapidly. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross arrived Friday in Thessaloniki along with a bevy of American officials and U.S. companies for an international trade fair. VOA’s Jamie Dettmer reports.
…

U.S. and European Union officials are considering new ways to penalize Russia after concluding economic sanctions have not influenced Moscow’s behavior. The sanctions were imposed after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula in 2014 and were extended after a Russian-made nerve agent killed one person and sickened three more in Britain. Observers say Russia’s economy has suffered because of sanctions, but that has not deterred Russian President Vladimir Putin. VOA’s Zlatica Hoke has more.]]
…

A Polish national who fled to the U.S. after being found guilty in a massive fraud case dating back to the country’s communist era is fighting his extradition while imprisoned in Florida.

Dariusz Przywieczerski fled his home country to avoid incarceration. He was found guilty in 2005 of being involved in a scheme to illegally trade in foreign debt at a state agency controlled by the communist secret service.

The fraud involving the Foreign Debt Servicing Fund, known as FOZZ, cost the country’s treasury the equivalent of about 80 million euros in the late 1980s.

Several others involved were given prison sentences in Poland.

Living in Florida

The 72-year-old was arrested in October 2017 in Florida, where he has been residing. He has since been fighting his extradition and has a pending case with the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals.

He has been given until November 5 to submit a written brief and is representing himself without an attorney.

In court documents, Przywieczerski claimed to be impoverished and suffering from numerous ailments, including diabetes and “significant hearing loss.”

He remains under the supervision of the U.S. Marshals Service, the federal agency that tracks down fugitives.

“He is still in our custody in the Pinellas County Jail, in Florida,” spokesman Ron Lindbak told AFP.

Claims trial unfair

Przywieczerski claimed in court his rights to a fair trial and due process were being violated, and that a U.S. judge erred in approving his extradition.

“I did not receive a fair trial in Poland, and the prosecution should have been barred by statute of limitations,” he wrote in federal court petition.

“The Polish judge was not impartial and advocated for a special law to enlarge the statute of limitations solely for my prosecution. My Polish convictions must be considered null and void.”

FOZZ, which was closely controlled by the secret services in the early 1990s, was set up by the central European nation’s last Communist regime to buy back Poland’s external debt.

FOZZ bosses moved the funds earmarked for the debt buy-up through fictitious offshore companies, described by prosecutors during a marathon trial nearly two decades ago as “a parade of swindlers.”
…

China accused Britain of “provocation” after a Royal Navy warship sailed near islands claimed by Beijing in the disputed South China Sea. 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said Britain had “violated international and Chinese laws” when the HMS Albion sailed by the Paracel Islands on Aug. 31. 

“The Chinese Navy legally verified the ship and warned it to leave,” Hua told a news briefing Thursday. 

Vietnam and Taiwan also claim the islands, also known as Xisha in Chinese and Hoang Sa in Vietnamese.

Reuters news agency, which first reported the story Thursday, said Albion’s maneuver was an assertion of freedom of navigation. The U.S. Navy has also sent ships and planes to the disputed area to conduct Freedom of Navigation Operations. 

Britain and France announced in June that they would send ships to the region for similar exercises.

China claims a large swathe of the South China Sea, extending from its southern coast almost to Malaysia, a much larger area than the internationally recognized territorial limit of 22 nautical kilometers (12 nautical miles).

China’s claim is contested by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. 
…

The International Criminal Court ruled Thursday it has jurisdiction to investigate the alleged forced mass exodus of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar to neighboring Bangladesh as a possible crime against humanity.

The Hague-based court said the top prosecutor must consider the ruling “as she continues with her preliminary examination concerning the crimes allegedly committed against the Rohingya people.”

The ruling came after chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda, in an unprecedented move, asked judges for an opinion on whether she could investigate the deportations as a crime against humanity.

The preliminary probe, which aims to determine if there is sufficient evidence to launch a full investigation, “must be concluded within a reasonable time,” the court said.

Myanmar is not a member of the court, but Bangladesh is — which was the basis of Bensouda’s argument for jurisdiction. She compared deportation to “a cross-border shooting” that “is not completed until the bullet [fired in one country] strikes and kills the victim [in another country].”

About 700,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled Myanmar’s northern Rakhine state into Bangladesh since August of last year to escape a military offensive that has resulted in torched villages and allegations of murder and rape by troops and vigilantes.

A special U.N. investigative panel accused Myanmar’s military on August 27 of carrying out numerous atrocities during the crackdown against the Rohingya “with genocidal intent” after a series of Rohingya militant attacks on security outposts.

The panel, sanctioned by the U.N. Human Rights Council, concluded in a scathing report that Myanmar’s military actions were “grossly disproportionate to actual security threats.”

Investigators also denounced Myanmar’s de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, for failing to use her position and “her moral authority” to prevent the crisis.

Aung San Suu Kyi received a Nobel Peace Prize for her decades-long struggle against Myanmar’s former military regime, but her global reputation has been tarnished for failing to speak out in support the Rohingya.

 
…

Three Baltic countries have lashed out at retail giant Walmart for selling online T-shirts and other products with Soviet Union emblems on them, and demanded that the goods be removed.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were forcibly annexed by Moscow in 1940 and remained part of the Soviet Union until its collapse in 1991, except for a brief occupation by Nazi Germany 1941-1944.  Lithuania has been taking a particularly hard line against its communist-era legacy, banning all Soviet symbols as well as Nazi ones.

“Horrific crimes were done under the Soviet symbols of a sickle and hammer,” the Lithuanian ambassador to the United States, Rolandas Krisciunas, wrote Wednesday to Walmart. “The promotion of such symbols resonates with a big pain for many centuries.”

“When the Soviet Union occupied Lithuania, hundreds of thousands of our citizens were killed, exiled, tortured, raped, separated from their families. Similar fates struck dozens of millions of other innocent people, including children, across Europe and across the globe,” the ambassador wrote.   

Krisciunas said he does not believe that Walmart deliberately chose to offend by selling the T-shirts, tank tops and sweatshirts with Soviet symbols and the letters USSR. “But in this case, the T-shirts and other products with the symbols of mass murder should be immediately withdrawn,” he wrote.

The Baltic News Service said a group of lawmakers from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had written Wednesday another letter to Walmart, saying “it is utterly disappointing [that the chain] does not show respect for the millions of different citizens who fell victim to the Soviet totalitarian regime.”

Selling such items “demonstrates lack of human decency,” the BNS news agency quoted them as saying. They added that Walmart “participates in promotion, among its customers worldwide, of totalitarianism, human rights abuse and suppression of freedom and democracy, the values that allowed such corporations as Walmart to grow and prosper.”

“We call on Walmart Inc. to demonstrate their corporate responsibility…and immediately discontinue selling of the…items,” they wrote, according to BNS.

There was no immediate reaction from the retailer based in Bentonville, Arkansas.

It seemed from the site that it is a third-party company — called Buy Cool Shirts — that sells the shirts through Walmart Inc.’s page.

In May, German sports gear maker Adidas agreed to remove a red tank top with the letters USSR and emblems of the Soviet Union from its online store. The item was being sold ahead of the soccer World Cup in Russia.

 
…

Georgette Mosbacher, an entrepreneur and Republican donor, officially began her term as the new U.S. ambassador to Poland on Thursday by presenting her credentials to President Andrzej Duda.

The 71-year-old Mosbacher was tapped by President Donald Trump for her mission in the nation of 38 million that has close ties with Washington. Warsaw was the inaugural stop on Trump’s first European tour last year.

The two NATO allies share security concerns in the face of Russia’s increased military activity. Poland is seeking a greater U.S. troop presence on its territory and in the region.

Duda is to hold talks with Trump at the White House on Sept. 18. The meeting is expected to cover energy cooperation and increasing business ties.

Poland wants to increase the volume of liquefied gas contracts with the U.S., as it seeks to cut dependence on gas imports from Russia, which has occasionally used them as a political tool. Poland also wants more U.S. investment to help fuel it’s fast-developing economy.

The ceremony at the early 19th century Belweder palace in Warsaw included a handshake and a few brief remarks exchanged.
…

International calls for restraint grew Wednesday for Syria and its allies, Russia and Iran, to avoid a bloodbath and humanitarian disaster in Syria’s Idlib province.

The northwestern province along the Turkish border is the last major part of Syria in rebel hands. Syrian forces are surrounding the province, and observers say a multiparty operation may be imminent.

Meeting Wednesday with the emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, President Donald Trump called the situation in Idlib “very sad.”

“That cannot be a slaughter. If it’s a slaughter, the world is going to get very, very angry and the United States is going to get angry, too,” Trump added.

When a reporter asked Trump if he was not going to let an attack on Idlib happen, the president said only that he was watching very closely.

The 10 nonpermanent members of the U.N. Security Council issued a joint statement Wednesday urging all parties in Syria to show restraint. They said a military strike on Idlib would lead to a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

The entire council is scheduled to meet Friday to discuss the crisis, while at the same time, the presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran are planning to hold a summit in Tehran.

Russia and Iran are Syria’s top allies, and Turkey fears another refugee crisis along its border if Syrian forces attack Idlib.

The three nations last year declared Idlib to be a “de-escalation zone,” and Turkey says the cease-fire inside Idlib must not be violated. Moscow, however, has called Idlib a “nest of terrorists,” the word it uses to refer to the rebels.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Russian airstrikes on Idlib killed at least nine civilians Tuesday. 

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with his German counterpart, Heiko Maas, in Ankara Wednesday, in part to send a message to Moscow that such attacks are unacceptable.

Cavusoglu says Russian and Turkish officials have been holding talks on preventing a military strike on Idlib.

“We don’t find it correct that the [Russian raids] happened before the Tehran summit,” he said. “If the problem here is the radical groups, a common strategy needs to be adopted. Joint work can be done to eliminate these groups, but the solution is definitely not to bomb Idlib in its entirety.”

Maas said Germany was also concerned about massive bloodshed and “looming humanitarian catastrophe” inside Idlib.

About 3 million people are in the province. Many of them are rebels and their families who went there after being given a chance to evacuate from other areas formerly held by rebels before Syrian forces moved in.

The Syrian military has been urging the rebels in Idlib to surrender.
…

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is making a two-day visit to Turkey in the latest step in warming relations between the two countries.

Last year, bilateral relations plummeted to the point that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of using “Nazi methods.”

But before leaving for Ankara, Maas  said “we are determined to keep working hard to improve our relations. Turkey is more than a large neighbor, it is an important partner of Germany.”

Maas will meet Erdogan and top Turkish ministers.

The visit is to prepare for Erdogan’s state visit to Berlin later this month, a rare privilege in Europe, analysts say, given Turkey’s poor human rights record.

Looking for help

“There indeed seems to be a warming of relations between Turkey and Germany,” said political analyst Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam research group. “Turkey’s relationship with its other big partner in the West, the United States, is under tension. So,there is a real willingness in Ankara to improve the relations with key European countries, primarily Germany.”

Last month’s imposition of U.S. tariffs on Turkish goods triggered a collapse in Turkey’s currency, threatening a financial crisis. The Turkish and German finance ministers are to meet in Berlin later this month to reportedly discuss financial support for Turkey.

Until recently, Erdogan had threatened to look east toward Moscow, in response to souring ties with Washington and Europe. But analysts point out that Turkish financial woes and the deepening crisis in Syria, underscore the limits of Ankara’s relationship with Moscow.

“There was always a consciousness in Ankara that Russia could never really be a strategic partner to Turkey,” Ulgen said. “Namely, there continue to be fundamental differences on how the two countries look at developments in the region, be it Syria, Ukraine, Crimea.”

“Secondly,” he added, “Russia is not an economic partner in the sense that the IMF [International Monetary Fund] or EU could ever be,” he added, “so expectations in terms that Russia could be helpful in an economic downturn scenario in Turkey were always very superficial.”

Human rights

Turkey’s human rights record is seen as a significant stumbling block to any improvement in relations with the EU.

Maas said he would call on Turkish authorities for the release of seven German citizens, which Berlin claims are being held for political reasons.German politicians are accusing Ankara of pursing hostage diplomacy.

Ankara insists the Turkish judiciary is independent. But in the past few months, Turkish courts have released German journalists Deniz Yucel and Mesale Tolu.

Analysts warn if Ankara is seeking significant improvement in its ties with Berlin and the wider European Union, it will have to take substantial steps toward complying with EU standards on human rights defined by the Copenhagen Criteria.

“The EU demand of meeting the Copenhagen Criteria requires having some kind of democratic regime — some kind of independent judiciary, some role for checks and balances,” said political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners. “You cannot put people in jail for their postings on social media or arrest journalists for writing something Erdogan doesn’t like. These practices need to stop.”

“Ankara is looking for a relationship that is devoid of political conditionality. From the European perspective, that will not be possible,” Ulgen said.

Analysts claim the decline in human rights in Turkey means Ankara’s EU membership hopes are all but finished.

“This vocation of becoming a full EU member is over,” said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen. “Now, even to renew the customs union is not going to happen this year or next.”

“But yet separately,” he added, “those countries in the European Union are the biggest trade partners of Turkey, and it will remain so,” he added. “Especially Turkey and Germany enjoy a special relationship with many problems, but no country can replace Germany for Turkish industry, and Turkey needs more industrial production to get out of this dire straits in Turkey.”

Analysts say an EU agreement with Turkey to control migrants entering European countries remains a compelling reason for Berlin and the rest of the bloc to improve relations and maintain Turkey’s economic stability.

“Given that both parties now realize that Turkey’s accession is unfeasible, at least for the foreseeable future, a new relationship will have to be defined,” Ulgen said. “A new balance has to be struck overall.”
…

Britain risks huge disruptions to its economy and society, including trade, transport, health care and citizens’ rights, if it leaves the European Union next March without a deal. That’s the conclusion of a new report on the short-term risks of a so-called ‘no-deal Brexit.’ The report comes as lawmakers return to London after a six-week summer break to face growing uncertainty over Britain’s future relations with the EU. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
…

British public opinion on leaving the European Union is still deeply split, according to a survey on Wednesday, indicating only a slight increase in support for remaining a member despite growing pessimism about the outcome of negotiations.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019 but has yet to secure an exit agreement to define future relations with Brussels and manage the economic impact of ending over four decades of integration with the world’s largest trading bloc.

Polling showed 59 percent of voters would now vote to remain in the bloc, versus 41 percent who would vote to leave. The findings were published in an academic-led report on Wednesday by research bodies NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe.

That is the highest recorded support for ‘remain’ in a series of five such surveys since the 2016 referendum and a large reversal of the actual 52-48 percent vote to leave.

But the author of the report, polling expert John Curtice, added a note of caution, saying that their panel of interviewees reported they had voted 53 percent in favor of remain in the original vote – a higher proportion than the actual vote.

“Nevertheless, this still means that there has apparently been a six-point swing from Leave to Remain, larger than that registered by any of our previous rounds of interviewing, and a figure that would seemingly point to a 54 percent (Remain) vote in any second referendum held now,” Curtice said in the report.

The government has ruled out holding a second referendum.

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects between June 7 and July 8. That means the survey does not fully reflect any change in opinion brought about by the publication of Prime Minister Theresa May’s negotiating strategy, published in early July.

That negotiating strategy has split May’s party at every level and drawn heavy criticism from both Brexit supporters and those who want to retain close ties to the EU.

Nevertheless, the poll shows voters thought the negotiations were going badly even before the publication of May’s so-called Chequers plan.

“Both Remain and Leave supporters have become markedly more critical of how both the U.K. government – especially – and the EU – somewhat less so – have been handling the negotiations,” Curtice said. “They have also become markedly more pessimistic about how good a deal Britain will get.”

Curtice said the results of the polling showed that the most influential factor over whether voters will support the conclusion of the negotiations is their perception of its economic effect rather than the details of any deal.
…

French President Emmanuel Macron planned to focus this month on promoting his policies to reshape the economy. Instead, he’s encountered obstacles.

The resignations of two popular Cabinet ministers, snags in a pending income tax system, and anger over cuts in family and housing benefits greeted Macron as France returned from summer holidays.

Last week, the 40-year-old leader branded the French as “Gauls resistant to change.” He made the remark while reaffirming his intent to push for loosening France’s rigid labor rules despite such resistance.

Missing ministers

Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot’s resignation last week was an unexpected blow. Hulot, the well-known host of a television nature show, personified Macron’s agenda for greener policies.

Hulot’s decision to quit raised questions about the president’s commitment to “Make our planet great again” — a verbal jab at U.S. President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord.

An experienced politician and environmentalist, Francois de Rugy, was named as the new environment minister Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Sport Minister Laura Flessel, who holds two Olympic gold medals in fencing, tendered her resignation Tuesday for “personal reasons.” She was replaced by swimmer Roxana Maracineanu, world champion in backstroke at the 1998 World Aquatics Championships.

Taxing times

A major change in French life is set to take place in January with the introduction of a new schedule and system for paying income taxes.

Macron suggested last week that potential technical bugs could be an issue. His comments made the government look unprepared to the public.

Yet Prime Minister Edouard Philippe confirmed on Tuesday night that the measure, launched under Macron’s predecessor Francois Hollande, will be implemented as planned.

The measure would require workers to have taxes automatically and immediately deducted from their salaries each month. French workers currently pay taxes on what they earned the year before with one or several payments.

The switch has raised concerns about taxpayer privacy since employers and not tax authorities would be responsible for overseeing the automated deductions.

The government also fears a negative psychological impact on French workers who would see lower monthly earnings on their pay slips even though their annual tax liability would be the same.

Growing pains

The French government recently lowered its economic growth forecast for next year to 1.7 percent — down from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent — and unveiled plans to cut public spending.

Pensions and family and housing benefits would no longer be pegged to inflation. That means they would increase at a more moderate pace and the purchasing power of retirees and families would decrease.

Philippe, the prime minister, said the government would not cut benefits for France’s poorest residents.

Macron has pledged to pursue labor changes in the coming months, with a focus on small businesses, to boost growth.

Sliding popularity

Two recent opinion polls by French institutes Ifop and BVA showed Macron’s popularity rating at 31 and 34 percent respectively — the lowest since his election in May 2017.

Meanwhile, labor unions are considering more strikes to protest policies of Macron’s they see as weakening hard-won workers protections.

Worker unions CGT and FO and student unions Unef and UNL have called for an “action day” on Oct. 9.

Macron’s government struggled in the past year to pass labor reforms and a revamping of national railway company SNCF. The initiatives prompted large protests and months-long rolling strikes from railway workers.
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Laboratory tests by the chemical weapons watchdog confirmed British conclusions that two people in Amesbury, southwest England, were exposed to a Novichok-type nerve agent, it said Tuesday.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said analysis by designated laboratories of samples collected by its team “confirm the findings of the United Kingdom relating to the identity of the toxic chemical.”

Dawn Sturgess, 44, died after she and her partner were exposed to the toxin near the city of Salisbury where Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were struck down with the same poison in March.

The OPCW said “it is also the same toxic chemical that was found in the biomedical and environmental samples relating to the poisoning of Sergei Skripal.”

The U.K. has accused Russia, which developed the toxic agent in the Soviet Union era, of poisoning the Skripals. Moscow denies all involvement.

Britain is ready to ask Russia to extradite two men it suspects of carrying out the nerve agent attack on Skripal.
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Russia on Tuesday joined Iran in expressing support for Syria’s impending operation to retake control of rebel-held Idlib province, the last major opposition stronghold in the country.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Idlib is a pocket of terrorism, and that the situation there is undermining efforts to find a political resolution to the Syrian conflict.

That follows statements Monday by Iran’s Foreign Ministry saying Idlib should be cleared of “terrorists.” Iranian media also quoted Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif saying during a visit to Syria that Idlib should be put back under the control of the Syrian people, and that reconstruction efforts in Syria and the return of refugees should go forward.

There are about 3 million people in Idlib and the United Nations has said it is worried about the potential humanitarian toll that may come with a Syrian military campaign there.

Trump’s warning

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Syria in a tweet Monday evening not to “recklessly attack” attack Idlib. He also called on two major backers of President Bashar al-Assad’s military to also restrain their actions.

“The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!” Trump said.

David Lesch, a history professor at Trinity University in San Antonio, told VOA that while the Trump administration is “ratcheting up the pressure a little bit” beyond its previous admonitions to not use chemical weapons, but that U.S. influence on what happens in Idlb is limited.

“Frankly speaking, I don’t think there’s anything the United States can do about it. I think Russia and the Syrian government and their allies are dead-set on taking over Idlib, either in a phased way or in an all-out massive invasion,” Lesch said.

Syria has been at war since early 2011 with a multitude of parties including pro-government forces, rebel groups and militants all fighting for control over various areas.

Assad’s forces, backed by military support from Russia and Iran, have recaptured major cities in recent years, often involving agreements with both opposition fighters and civilians that allowed them to flee to Idlib.

Assad’s government has long referred to any opposition fighters as “terrorists.” The Idlib area includes both rebel groups and militants such as the Nusrah Front.

The presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey are set to hold a meeting in Tehran on Friday to discuss the situation in Idlib.

Victor Beattie contributed to this report.
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French President Emmanuel Macron hopes to draw a line under a raft of troubles plaguing his 16-month-old presidency and to re-energize his economic reform drive with a Cabinet reshuffle Tuesday

Macron was forced into the move by the surprise exit of his former ecology minister, Nicolas Hulot, who said he despaired at what he felt were hollow commitments on environmental policy.

Resigning live on air last week, Hulot’s resignation was a setback for the 40-year-old French leader, who returned from the summer break reeling from a bodyguard scandal and preparing to embark on a new wave of economic reforms.

Cabinet redone quickly

Benjamin Griveaux, government spokesman, said the Cabinet would be complete in time for Wednesday morning’s weekly Cabinet meeting but was tight-lipped on the scope.

Hours before the expected announcement, Sports Minister Laura Flessel said she was resigning from the government for personal reasons.

“I will continue to be a faithful teammate of the president and prime minister, whose determination I admire and whose values and patriotism I share,” said Flessel, a former Olympic fencing champion and one of Macron’s most popular ministers.

For much of Macron’s first year in power, the former investment banker appeared untouchable, self-assured and unfazed by his falling popularity as he pushed through investor-friendly reforms with a business-like efficiency.

Recently, however, Macron has looked more vulnerable.

Economic growth is slower than forecast, undermining his deficit-busting credentials. Usually decisive, he is wavering on an impending tax collection reform. Meanwhile, voters are growing impatient with his monarchical style and sharp tongue.

“It wasn’t supposed to happen to this president. He promised to be audacious in his reforms, efficient in the exercise of power, and the embodiment of dignity. In his first few months the promise was kept, but now everything is going wrong,” the right-leaning Le Figaro said in an editorial on Monday.

‘Year zero’

Macron has sold his pro-business reform drive on promises that it will boost growth and jobs, but voters spanning typically conservative pensioners to low-income workers complain the president’s policies favor big business and the wealthy.

Next up for his centrist government is tackling social spending, a delicate political balancing act as he seeks to restore credibility with left-leaning voters, just as weaker-than-forecast growth puts pressure on the budget deficit and his popularity plumbs new lows.

Macron’s election victory, which blew apart France’s mainstream parties and halted the march of the far-right National Front party, delighted French business and urban, liberal voters.

But prone to haughty and at times condescending remarks, he has struggled to connect with common folk.

Popularity flags

An IFOP-Fiducial opinion poll Tuesday showed just 31 percent of respondents were happy with his performance as support eroded across all ages on both the political left and right.

That is lower than his predecessor Francois Hollande at the same stage in the socialist’s presidency. Hollande went on to become so unpopular he was the first president in France’s Fifth Republic not to run for re-election.

“It’s something of a ‘year zero’ for Emmanuel Macron. The slate is being wiped clean, even his popularity is starting at zero again. Everything has to be rebuilt,” said Philippe Moreau Chevrolet of the Sciences Po political school in Paris.

In a rare moment of humility, Macron on Monday acknowledged the challenges of his job to a class of young school students: “There are some days which are easy, and others which are not.”
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