Ukrainian officials are warning that Russia may be about to escalate its conflict with Ukraine, including possibly launching a breakout offensive from Crimea.

And they accuse Moscow-backed separatists in Ukraine’s Donbas region of violating the latest cease-fire — dubbed a “New Year’s Truce”— by attacking Ukrainian positions with a heavy-caliber weapon banned under the Minsk peace agreements.

An increasing number of Russian military convoys have been spotted moving toward the border between Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014, and Ukrainian-held territory, and there have been ominous fighter-jet redeployments to Crimean airfields, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

“Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean peninsula and the East,” the institute has reported. It says Russia could conduct such operations on short notice.

Analysts say the movements are threatening, but they are divided over the intent, with some suggesting President Vladimir Putin is keeping the West guessing.

“The data suggests that Putin is preparing to attack, although alternative interpretations are possible,” the institute said.

“The unpredictability is the point,” a senior European defense official told VOA. “Putin is testing Ukraine and the West to see if he’ll be checked, to see what he can get away with, and maybe with an eye to securing another summit early this year with [U.S. President] Donald Trump,” he added.

The Russian leader issued New Year greetings to dozens of global leaders on Sunday, including Trump, saying relations between the U.S. and Russia are the key to “ensuring strategic stability and international security.” Putin added that Russia is “open to dialogue with the United States on the most extensive agenda.”

With tensions running high between Ukraine and Russia after Russian coastal forces seized three Ukrainian vessels on Nov. 25 — a tugboat and two patrol boats — in international waters in the Black Sea near Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula, fears are mounting in Kyiv of another major confrontation.

The press service of the Joint Forces Operation, the military command structure overseeing Ukraine’s defense against the Russian-led military intervention in eastern Ukraine, said Ukrainian positions near Novotashkivsk were struck by 120 millimeter mortar rounds Monday night.

Weapons with calibers of more than 100mm are banned under the 2015 Minsk II agreement from a 50-kilometer zone running along the front line between Ukrainian and Russian-led forces in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.

Russian-led forces shelled Ukrainian positions also near the port city of Mariupol with 82mm mortars, the press service said.

A former adviser to Putin, Andrey Illarionov, now one of the Russian leader’s most strident critics, warned last month that Moscow is ready to deploy special forces to seize a vital Communist-era canal that used to provide 85 percent of Crimea’s fresh water before Ukraine blocked it in 2014. He says the peninsula will face a severe water shortage in the summer, impacting farms and factories, as well as households.

llarionov told the Kyiv Post he believes the West has inadvertently given Moscow the green light for further adventurism by failing to sanction Russia for the November incident in the Azov Sea when Russian coastal forces rammed, fired upon and seized three small Ukrainian vessels.

“Putin [thinks he] has nothing to lose. We’ve seen since the Azov Sea incident that the West has not imposed any serious penalties.”

In recent weeks, Russian news outlets have published articles about water shortages on the Crimean peninsula, as well as about Russian military exercises taking place near the narrow land corridor linking Crimea to Ukraine’s Kherson region.

Some analysts suggest that Putin might cast any seizing of the canal as an intervention necessitated to prevent a Ukraine-provoked humanitarian crisis on the peninsula. An occupation of parts of the Kherson region would give Russian forces the ability to tighten their stranglehold on Ukraine’s ports and to interfere with ship movements in and out of Mykolaiv and Mariupol, which are already experiencing sharp decreases in freight traffic.

Among the Russian military movements being observed by Kyiv and Western powers are the redeployments of fighter jets. Just before Christmas, Reuters reported more than a dozen Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets were relocated to Belbek Airbase near Sevastopol from Krymsk airfield in Krasnodar Territory.

The redeployments and military build up is alarming the former commander of U.S. Army Europe, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who retired last year from active service. The Russia government is seeking to redraw the borders more, he fears. In an interview with the Military Times newspaper Monday, Hodges said, unless there’s greater Western pushback, “they won’t stop until they completely own the Sea of Azov and have choked out Ukraine’s very important seaport of Mariupol.”

“The next phase will probably be land and sea operations that would eventually secure maybe even Mariupol but continue to take the Ukrainian coastline and connect Crimea back up to Russia along the Sea of Azov,” Hodges said. “It’s not going to happen in the next six months, but this is the direction they’re taking until they completely own the Black Sea and they’ve isolated Ukraine,” he added.

 
…

U.S. Anti-Doping Agency chief Travis Tygart urged the World Anti-Doping Agency to reinstate the ban on Russia, calling the country’s return to the sports fold “a total joke.”

“The situation is a total joke and an embarrassment for WADA and the global anti-doping system,” Tygart said in a statement on Tuesday, after Russia missed a December 31 deadline to hand over data from its anti-doping laboratory in Moscow.

The deadline was set in September, when WADA lifted a ban on the Russian Anti-Doping Agency, paving the way for Russian athletes to return to competition across all sports after a report which uncovered a state-sponsored doping program in Russia.

“In September, WADA secretly moved the goal posts and reinstated Russia against the wishes of athletes, governments and the public,” Tygart said. “In doing this WADA guaranteed Russia would turn over the evidence of its state-supported doping scheme by today.

“No one is surprised this deadline was ignored and it’s time for WADA to stop being played by the Russians and immediately declare them non-compliant for failing yet again to meet the deadline.”

WADA personnel traveled to Russia in December but were unable to extract all of the promised data.

WADA said at the time its team could not complete its mission “due to an issue raised by the Russian authorities that the team’s equipment to be used for the data extraction was required to be certified under Russian law.”

With WADA waiting and the December 31 deadline looming, RUSADA chief Yury Ganus had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to intervene to stave off another ban that put Russia “on the brink of the abyss”.

However, the Kremlin said RUSADA’s concerns bout new sanctions were “without foundation.”

 
…

Paul Whelan, the American citizen detained in Moscow on Friday on espionage charges, has been identified as a retired U.S. Marine.

Whelan’s family posted messages on social media Tuesday, saying they first grew concerned when he did not contact them on Friday.

“‘We have read reports of the arrest in Moscow of Paul Whelan, our son & brother,” the statement reads. “Paul is a retired Marine and was visiting Moscow to attend a wedding.”

The family learned of his arrest only after it was reported by Russian state news outlets, prompting the family to contact congressional representatives and U.S. diplomats.

“We are deeply concerned for his safety and well-being,” the family said. “His innocence is undoubted and we trust that his rights will be respected.”

On Monday, Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officials said Whelan had been detained on December 28 “while carrying out an act of espionage,” and that they have opened a criminal probe.

They provided no further details, but Russia’s state-run TASS news agency said that Whelan faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted.

A State Department spokesperson said Monday the United States is aware of Russian authorities’ detention of a U.S. citizen.

“We have been formally notified of the detention by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” the official said in an emailed statement to VOA. “Russia’s obligations under the Vienna Convention require them to provide consular access. We have requested this access and expect Russian authorities to provide it.” The State Department did not provide further details, citing privacy concerns.

Tensions between Moscow and the West

The arrest coincides with several spy scandals that have exacerbated tensions between Russia and the West, including the poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Britain, along with the recent U.S. conviction of Russian citizen Maria Butina for acting as an illegal foreign agent.

Butina pleaded guilty to acting under the direction of a Russian official to establish relationships with influential Americans.

News of Whelan’s detention came less than 24 hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a New Year’s greeting to U.S. President Donald Trump in which he said Moscow is amenable to a continuing dialogue with Washington on a range of topics.

In 2016, Izvestia, a Kremlin-aligned news outlet, reported that there were 13 U.S. citizens in Russian jails at the time. The Kremlin has not since published any details on other Americans currently in Russian detention.
…

Chancellor Angela Merkel says Germany will keep pushing for global solutions to challenges in 2019 and also has to take greater responsibility in the world. 

Closing a politically turbulent 2018 in Germany, Merkel devotes a significant part of her annual New Year’s address to the merits of bringing a multilateral approach to international problems — a style she has consistently defended in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” tactics. 

Climate change, migration, terrorism

The fourth-term chancellor pointed to curbing climate change, managing migration and combating terrorism as the kinds of challenges that benefit from a wide view. Germany starts a two-year stint on the U.N. Security Council on Jan. 1. 

“We want to resolve all these questions in our own interest, and we can do that best if we consider the interests of others,” Merkel said in a text of the message her office released ahead of a scheduled Monday broadcast. 

“That is the lesson from the two world wars of the last century,” she added. “But this conviction is no longer shared today by everyone, and certainties of international cooperation are coming under pressure.” 

“In such a situation, we must again stand up for, argue and fight more strongly for our convictions,” Merkel said. “And we must take on more responsibility in our own interests.” 

‘Global solutions’

She said Germany will push for “global solutions” at the U.N. and noted the country is spending more on humanitarian aid and defense. She said Berlin wants to make the European Union “more robust and able to make decisions.” 

Turning to home, Merkel acknowledged that many Germans have “struggled very much” with her latest government amid persistent infighting since it took office in March after unprecedentedly long talks to form the governing coalition. She said it had been “an extremely difficult political year.” 

‘New beginning’

Germany’s leader for 13 years said she set the stage for a “new beginning” in late October by announcing she won’t seek a fifth term. She also gave up the leadership of the conservative Christian Democratic Union, Germany’s main center-right party, which has been led since Dec. 7 by ally Annegret Kramp Karrenbauer. 

Merkel has said she plans to remain chancellor for the rest of this parliamentary term, which is supposed to run until 2021. But questions remain over whether she will actually stay that long, not least because of tensions within her governing coalition. 

“Democracy lives from change,” she said in her new year message. “We build on what our predecessors left us, and shape things in the present for those who will come after us.”

                 
…

British Prime Minister Theresa May urged lawmakers on Monday to back her Brexit deal, promising that it would allow the country to “turn a corner” and let the government focus on solving domestic problems such as housing and a skill shortage.

May made the appeal in a New Year’s message little more than two weeks before a make-or-break vote in parliament on her plan for Britain’s exit from the European Union which is due to happen on March 29.

The vote, which May postponed in December to avoid defeat, will be a pivotal moment for the world’s fifth-largest economy: it will determine whether Britain follows her plan for a managed exit and relatively close economic ties, or faces massive uncertainty about the country’s next step.

“New Year is a time to look ahead and in 2019 the UK will start a new chapter. The Brexit deal I have negotiated delivers on the vote of the British people and in the next few weeks MPs (members of parliament) will have an important decision to make,” May said in a video released by her office. “If parliament backs a deal, Britain can turn a corner.”

Conservative Party

Attempting to appeal to those within her Conservative Party who have criticized her leadership, and responding to criticism from opponents that Brexit has stalled her domestic agenda, May stressed her desire to move beyond the EU exit debate.

“Important though Brexit is, it is not the only issue that counts,” she said, highlighting policies to address a lack of housing, skills shortages and strengthen the economy. “Together I believe we can start a new chapter with optimism and hope.”

The vote on May’s Brexit deal with the EU is scheduled to take place in the week beginning Jan. 14.

May is still seeking reassurances from Brussels that a deeply unpopular fallback arrangement within her proposed deal, over the Northern Irish border, would only be temporary.

Northern Ireland

It seeks to prevent the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland if a better solution to keep trade flowing freely cannot be agreed.

The so-called backstop is the main obstacle between May and a victory in parliament, costing her the support of dozens of members of her own party and the small Northern Irish party that props up her minority government.

The government and businesses are ramping up preparations in case a deal cannot be reached to smooth Britain’s exit from the bloc, amid warnings of delays at borders and disruption to supplies of medicines, food and components.

 
…

France’s embattled president, Emmanuel Macron, vowed on Monday to press on with his reform agenda in 2019 despite a spate of “yellow vest” protests that have challenged his government and extended a plunge in his approval ratings.

Promised overhauls of France’s unemployment benefits, civil service and public pensions will be undertaken in the coming year, Macron said in his televised New Year message.

Unapologetic tone

Confounding some expectations of a more contrite message, Macron struck an unapologetic note as he urged voters to face up to economic realities underpinning recently enacted reforms of French labor rules, and others yet to come.

“In recent years, we’ve engaged in a blatant denial of reality,” Macron said in the address, delivered — unusually —  from a standing position in his Elysee Palace office.

“We can’t work less, earn more, cut taxes and increase spending.”

In a veiled attack on the far-left and hard-right groupings active on the fringes of the often violent protests, Macron also decried self-appointed “spokespeople for a hateful mob” who he said had targeted foreigners, Jews, gays and the press.

Popularity at all-time low

Almost 20 months after he became France’s youngest president, Macron’s popularity is at the lowest level recorded in modern French history.

It stood at just 24 percent in late December compared to 47 percent a year earlier, according to a Journal du Dimanche aggregate of polls, as he struggled to draw a line under numerous setbacks.

The current wave of demonstrations, which have brought disruption and destruction to Paris and other major cities, has yet to abate despite fiscal giveaways and an increase in the wage for the poorest workers.

Protesters were expected to join the New Year crowds thronging Paris’s Champs-Elysees Avenue overnight, amid a heavy police presence.

Bodyguard scandal

A scandal over Macron’s former bodyguard Alexandre Benalla, who was eventually fired after video emerged of him beating protestors, has resurfaced with the revelation that he continued to travel on diplomatic passports and exchange messages with Macron long after his dismissal.

Macron said efforts to bolster international controls on immigration and tax evasion would be at the heart of European Union proposals he plans to announce in “coming weeks” — to be pursued in parallel with a domestic agenda reconciling ambitious reform with France’s commitment to social solidarity.

“This is the line I have followed since the first day of my mandate, and which I plan to keep following,” he said. “This coming year, 2019, is in my view a decisive one.”
…

The euro currency turns 20 years old on January 1, surviving two tumultuous decades and becoming the world’s No. 2 currency.

After 20 years, the euro has become a fixture in financial markets, although it remains behind the dollar, which dominates the world’s market.

The euro has weathered several major challenges, including difficulties at its launch, the 2008 financial crisis, and a eurozone debt crisis that culminated in bailouts of several countries.

Those crises tested the unity of the eurozone, the 19 European Union countries that use the euro. While some analysts say the turmoil and the euro’s resilience has strengthened the currency and made it less susceptible to future troubles, other observers say the euro will remain fragile unless there is more eurozone integration.

Beginnings 

The euro was born on January 1, 1999, existing initially only as a virtual currency used in financial transactions. Europeans began using the currency in their wallets three years later when the first Euro notes and coins were introduced.

At that time, only 11 member states were using the currency and had to qualify by meeting the requirements for limits on debt, deficits and inflation. EU members Britain and Denmark received opt-outs ahead of the currency’s creation.

The currency is now used by over 340 million people in 19 European Union countries, which are: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.

Other EU members are required to join the eurozone when they meet the currency’s monetary requirements.

Popularity

Today, the euro is the most popular than it has ever been over the past two decades, despite the rise of populist movements in several European countries that express skepticism toward the European Union.

In a November survey for the European Central Bank, 64 percent of respondents across the eurozone said the euro was a good thing for their country. Nearly three-quarters of respondents said they thought the euro was a good thing for Europe.

In only two countries — Lithuania and Cyprus — did a majority of people think the euro is a bad thing for their nation.

That is a big contrast to 2010, the year that both Greece and Ireland were receiving international bailout packages, when only 51 percent of respondents thought the euro was a good thing for their country.

Challenges

The euro faced immediate challenges at its beginning with predictions that the European Central Bank (ECB) was too rigid in its policy and that the currency would quickly fail. The currency wasn’t immediately loved in European homes and businesses either with many perceiving its arrival as a price hike on common goods.

Less than two years after the euro was launched — valued at $1.1747 to the U.S. dollar — it had lost 30 percent of its value and was worth just $0.8240 to the U.S. dollar. The ECB was able to intervene to successfully stop the euro from plunging further.

The biggest challenge to the block was the 2008 financial crisis, which then triggered a eurozone debt crisis that culminated in bailouts of several countries.

Tens of billions of euros were loaned to Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Spain, either because those countries ran out of money to save their own banks or because investors no longer wanted to invest in those nations.

The turmoil also highlighted the economic disparity between member states, particularly between the wealthier north and the debt-laden southern nations.

Poorer countries experienced both the advantages and disadvantages to being in the eurozone.

Poorer countries immediately benefited from joining the union, saving trillions of euros due to the lowering borrowing costs the new currency offered.

However, during times of economic downturn, they had fewer options to reverse the turmoil.

Typically in a financial crisis, a country’s currency would plunge, making its goods more competitive and allowing the economy to stabilize. But in the eurozone, the currency in poorer countries cannot devalue because stronger economies like Germany keep it higher.

Experts said the turbulent times of the debt crisis exposed some of the original flaws of the euro project.

However, the euro survived the financial crisis through a combination of steps from the ECB that included negative interest rates, trillions of euros in cheap loans to banks and buying more than 2.6 trillion euros in government and corporate bonds.

Future

ECB chief Mario Draghi was credited with saving the euro in 2012 when he said the bank would do “whatever it takes” to preserve the currency.

Some experts say the flexibility of the bank proves it is able to weather financial challenges and say the turmoil of the past two decades have left the ECB better able to deal with future crises.

However, other observers say that the 19 single currency nations have not done enough to carry out political reforms necessary to better enable the countries to work together on fiscal policy and to prepare for future downturns.

Proposals for greater coordination, including a eurozone banking union as well as a eurozone budget are still in the planning phases.
…

Russian President Vladimir Putin has told U.S. President Donald Trump in a New Year’s letter that the Kremlin is “open to dialogue” on the myriad issues hindering relations between their countries.

The Kremlin published a summary of Putin’s “greeting message” to Trump on Sunday. The summary states the Russian leader wrote: “Russia-U.S. relations are the most important factor behind ensuring strategic stability and international security.”

Trump canceled a formal meeting with Putin scheduled for Dec. 1 at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, tweeting “it would be best for all parties” given Russia’s seizure days earlier of three Ukrainian naval vessels.

Since then, the Kremlin has repeatedly said it is open to dialogue.

The message to Trump was among dozens of holiday greetings Putin sent to other world leaders, each tailored to reflect a bilateral theme. The recipients included Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whom Putin has backed throughout a civil war that started in 2011.

Putin’s message to Assad “stressed that Russia will continue to provide all-around assistance to the government and people of Syria in their fight against terrorism and efforts to protect state sovereignty and territorial integrity,” according to the Kremlin summary.

Moscow hosted talks with Turkey on Saturday in which the two countries agreed to coordinate actions in northern Syria after Trump’s announcement that he was withdrawing U.S. forces from the country.

The main group of Kurdish-led forces fighting against Assad with U.S. support has said the U.S. pullout could lead to the revival of the Islamic State group.

Putin, in his message to Assad, “wished the Syrian people the earliest return to peaceful and prosperous life.”

 
…

An international trade association says on-the-job slayings of journalists and news media staff rose again in 2018 following an overall decline during the past half-dozen years.

The International Federation of Journalists said in an annual report set for release Monday that 94 journalists and media workers died in targeted killings, bomb attacks and conflict crossfire this year, 12 more than in 2017.

Before the declines seen in five of the past six years, 121 people working for news organizations were slain in 2012. Since the federation started its annual count in 1990, the year with the most work-related killings, 155, was 2006.

The deadliest country for people who work in the news media this year was Afghanistan, where 16 of the killings occurred. Mexico was next, with 11. Yemen had nine media slayings and Syria eight in 2018.

Beyond the tragedy of lives lost, such killings affect the pursuit of truth and sharing of information in communities and countries where they happen, the president of the International Federation of Journalists said.

“Journalists are targeted because they are witnesses,” the group’s president, Philippe Leruth, told The Associated Press. “And the result of this, when a journalist or many journalists are killed in a country, you see an increase of self-censorship.”

Iraq, where 309 media professionals were killed over the past quarter-century, long topped the federation’s annual list. The federation identified a photojournalist as the one victim in the country this year.

While 2018 brought a worldwide increase, the total remained in the double digits for a second year running. The total of 155 in.

The IFJ connects some 600,000 media professionals from 187 trade unions and associations in more than 140 countries. The group said the new report showed that journalists face dangers apart from the risks of reporting from war zones and covering extremist movements.

“There were other factors, such as the increasing intolerance to independent reporting, populism, rampant corruption and crime, as well as the breakdown of law and order,” the Brussels-based group said in a statement.

Suddenly high on the list, in sixth place, was the United States with five killings. On June 28, a gunman in Annapolis, Maryland, opened fire in the newsroom of the Capital Gazette newspaper and fatally shot four journalists and a sales associate. The man had threatened the newspaper after losing a defamation lawsuit.

The Oct. 2 slaying of Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post who lived in self-imposed exile in the United States, had worldwide impact. He went to the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul to formalize a divorce so he could marry his Turkish fiance, but instead was strangled and dismembered there – allegedly by Saudi agents.

Khashoggi wrote critically of Saudi Arabia’s royal regime, and the alleged involvement of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the journalist’s slaying has put the governments of other countries under pressure to sever economic and political ties.

“Jamal Khashoggi was a very well-known figure, but you know, the most shocking statistic is that we know that nine of 10 journalist murders remain unpunished in the world,” Leruth said.

 
…

Emmanuel Macron’s former security aide, who was sacked this summer after his violent conduct fueled a political scandal, acknowledged on Sunday he was still traveling on a diplomatic passport, in an affair that has rattled the French presidency.

After he was fired when a video emerged of his beating a May Day protester, Alexandre Benalla returned to the spotlight in France this week, under scrutiny over his recent consultancy work and unauthorized use of diplomatic passports.

The original Benalla scandal became a major headache for Macron just over a year into his tenure, after the president, whose popularity ratings have since slipped, was criticized for acting too slowly in dealing with a member of his inner circle.

Benalla said in an interview with France’s Journal du Dimanche (JDD) on Sunday that he would return the diplomatic passports in the coming days, and rejected that he was somehow trying to profit from his status as a former insider by using them or in his work as a consultant.

“Maybe I was wrong to use these passports,” Benalla said, in a telephone conversation from overseas according to the JDD. “But I want to make it clear that I only did it for my own ease, to facilitate my passage through airports.”

The French presidency has sought to distance itself from the former bodyguard, and the government said it had formally requested the passports be returned on at least two occasions.

Paris prosecutors on Saturday opened a preliminary inquiry into Benalla’s usage of the passports.

Benalla maintained in the JDD, however, that he had initially returned the two ID documents in August, and that they were returned to him along with other personal items by a member of the president’s staff in October.

Scrutiny over Benalla comes at a sensitive time for Macron, who is grappling with a wave of “yellow vest” street protests by disgruntled voters calling for more measures to help lift household incomes.
…

A French technology company has created a tiny tracking device to combat poaching. The tracker is smaller, lighter and cheaper than previous methods, such as radio collars. The creators say the technology can also allow those in remote villages to share information on the internet regardless of language or literacy barriers. Arash Arabasadi reports.
…

The European Union is not trying to keep Britain in and wants to start discussing future ties the moment the U.K. parliament approves Brexit, partly to focus on its own unity ahead of May elections, the head of the bloc’s executive said Saturday.

“It is being insinuated that our aim is to keep the United Kingdom in the EU by all possible means. That is not our intention. All we want is clarity about our future relations. And we respect the result of the referendum.” Jean-Claude 

Juncker, the head of the European Commission, told German newspaper Welt am Sonntag in an interview. 

Juncker said the EU was ready to start negotiating a new deal with Britain right after the British Parliament approves the divorce deal. A vote is now due in the week starting Jan. 14. 

He also said Britain should get its act together. 

“And then tell us what it is you want,” he said. 

“I am working on the assumption that it will leave, because that is what the people of the United Kingdom have decided,” he added, refusing to be drawn into whether Britain would hold a second Brexit vote. “That is for the British to decide.” 

Watching Trump

On other challenges facing Europe, Juncker said he was watching U.S. President Donald Trump closely on trade. 

“I trust him for as long as he keeps his word. And if he no longer keeps it, then I will no longer feel bound by my word, either,” Juncker said of tensions between the EU and Washington around car tariffs. 

He said he felt EU citizens were increasingly growing apart, another problem to tackle ahead of Europe-wide parliamentary elections in May. 

“We have to ensure that these rifts do not become too deep,” Juncker said. “We must not imply that the populists are right. … They are just loud and do not have any specific proposals to offer on solving the challenges of our time.” 

He said Europe had to stand united “in combating the trolls and hacker groups from China or Russia” that could seek to sway the European vote. 

He expressed doubt about EU state Romania, which takes over the bloc’s rotating presidency Jan. 1 but struggles with corruption and bitter divisions. 

“The government in Bucharest has not yet fully understood what it means to take chair over the EU member states. … Romania’s internal situation is such that the country cannot act as a compact unit in Europe,” Juncker said. 
…

In his New Year’s message, U.N. Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres urges international cooperation to resolve the many dangers and divisions facing humanity.

As Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres carries the burdens of the world upon his shoulders.  At the same time, he is expected to be the world’s cheer-leader-in-chief, reassuring nations that solutions to the world’s many problems are available.

He does not disappoint in either category.  On the one hand, he wishes the world a happy, peaceful and prosperous New Year.  On the other hand, he issues a stark warning about the many crises and risks threatening global stability and security.  

Chief among these is climate change, which he says is moving faster than it can be controlled.  But Guterres does not throw up his hands in despair.   Rather, he notes work is moving ahead, albeit slowly, to confront this danger.

“The United Nations was able to bring countries together in Katowice to approve the Work Program for the implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate change,” Guterres said. “Now we need to increase ambition to beat this existential threat.  It is time to seize our last best chance.  It is time to stop uncontrolled and spiraling climate change.”  

Guterres warns geo-political divisions are deepening, making conflicts more difficult to resolve.  He says inequality is growing with only a handful of people owning most of the world’s wealth.  He notes intolerance is on the rise.

Despite this grim picture, he sees reasons for hope.  The U.N. chief finds chances for peace in Yemen and South Sudan are better than ever.   He says a recently signed agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea is easing tensions between the two countries.

He says these and other hopeful developments show when international cooperation works, the world wins.

 
…

During the past four years, Russia’s $1.7 trillion economy has been plagued by under-investment, broadening state ownership of enterprise and Western sanctions over Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Kremlin economic ministers have even warned of unexpectedly high inflation, but you wouldn’t know that talking to people passing through one of Moscow’s shopping districts as Russians prepare for their legendary Christmas and New Year’s holiday celebrations.

“I don’t plan to economize,” said Andrey, a Muscovite who suggested he personally has no financial constraints. “This is a planned holiday for which the budget has already been allocated without any real economy.”

Others, however, offered more conservative assessments. Some say they are worried about spending this year.

“I’m certainly concerned,” said Tatiana, who lives on a fixed income. “I see that the situation among the ordinary people is not getting better.” Tatiana, like an estimated 40 million Russians who live on a pension, says she feels vulnerable.

“My financial position depends, naturally, solely on the policy pursued by the state,” she said, saying she feels like no one is watching out for her interests. “I wish someone would think more about the pensioners.”

Like many Russians in the post-Soviet era, her greatest sense of security comes from her family.

“Thank God I have a son who takes care of me,” she said. “That’s why the situation affects me less than other people.”

Those concerns are not unfounded, analysts say.

Parallel economies

“Despite the fact that we have economic growth, we have had for years slumping real incomes,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center who describes the Russian economy as “contradictory.”

“Here’s one more Russian paradox: high salaries, growing salaries and decreasing real incomes. This is all because of the quite big shadow sector, the black economy, without any official taxation.”

WATCH: Russia’s Prosperity Depends on Whom You Ask

A combination of international sanctions and prevailing state economic policies are likely to result in reduced holiday spending compared to the prior four years, Kolesnikov said.

There are efforts to change Russia’s tax laws, and draft legislation is pending in the Duma to tax black market gains. But Kolesnikov and others say a new law could backfire because the notion of additional tax inspections will not go over well with most Russians.

“This isn’t good time for such an intervention from the government side,” he said, referring in part to an impending value-added tax hike slated for January, and the Central Bank’s decision this month to raise interest rates, which analysts warn might only exacerbate inflation and hurt ordinary Russians.

“It will be quite harmful for normal businesses, primarily middle- to small-sized businesses,” Kolesnikov said.

In Moscow, which accounts for 20 percent of total income nationwide, consumers may well weather an economic downturn better than their counterparts in other parts of the nation where much of Vladimir Putin’s support base is.

​Sanctions hurt ordinary Russians

Asked about the degree to which Western sanctions are having a direct impact on normal Russian consumers nationwide, Kolesnikov offered a pointed assessment.

“Right now it’s quite harmful when you’re sanctioning oligarchs, which are controlling big sectors of the Russian economy,” he said.

In an economy “monopolized by oligarchs,” he said, the targeted sanctions have an impact distinct from those levied against nations where small- and mid-sized businesses are the primary economic drivers.

“Russians are perceiving the situation not as an attack on oligarchs, but on their own working places,” he said. “At the end of the day, Russians are paying the price. Oligarchs will just get help from government, as they’re quite close to it.”
…

In the past four years, Russia’s $1.7 trillion economy has been in the world’s top 20. But in 2018, it has been plagued with problems stemming from under-investment, broadening state ownership of enterprise and Western sanctions over the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Now, rising value added tax and interest rates are triggering inflation warnings. VOA’s Pete Cobus reports from Moscow on how those warnings affect Muscovites preparing for their lavish Christmas and New Year’s holiday celebrations.
…

British divers who rescued young soccer players trapped in a flooded cave in Thailand are among those being recognized in Britain’s New Year’s Honors List, along with 1960s model Twiggy and Monty Python star Michael Palin.

Twiggy, a model who shot to stardom during the Beatles era, will become a Dame — the female equivalent of a knight — while Palin, whose second career has seen him become an acclaimed travel documentary maker, receives a knighthood.

Jim Carter, who played the acerbic Mr. Carson in “Downton Abbey,” was also recognized, as was filmmaker Christopher Nolan, director of “Inception” and “Dunkirk,” and best-selling author Philip Pullman, creator of the Dark Materials trilogy.

The list released Friday also named 43 people who responded quickly to the extremist attacks in Manchester and London in 2017.

The honors process starts with nominations from the public, which are winnowed down by committees and sent to the prime minister before the various honors are bestowed by Queen Elizabeth II or senior royals next year.

The 92-year-old monarch has increasingly called on her children and grandchildren to hand out the coveted awards.

Divers

Divers Joshua Bratchley, Lance Corporal Connor Roe and Vernon Unsworth will be made Members of the Order of the British Empire for their roles in the risky Thai cave rescue last summer.

Four other British cave divers will receive civilian gallantry awards for their roles in the thrilling rescue of 12 boys and their coach, who were trapped in the cave for more than two weeks.

Richard Stanton and John Volanthen, the first to reach the stranded children and their coach, have been awarded the George Medal, while Christopher Jewell and Jason Mallinson received the Queen’s Gallantry Medal.

Twiggy​

Twiggy, whose modeling career lasted for decades, burst on the London Mod scene as one of the original “It” girls. She earned worldwide fame by 17 and went on to a career in theater and films.

“It’s wonderful, but it makes me giggle,” said Twiggy, 69, whose real name is Lesley Lawson. “The hardest thing has been keeping it a secret.”

Michael Palin

Palin’s knighthood recognizes his contribution to travel, culture and geography. He said the news had not sunk in yet but noted “I have been a knight before, in Python films. I have been several knights, including Sir Galahad.”

“I don’t think it will (sink in) until I see the envelopes addressing me as Sir Michael Palin,” said the 75-year-old. 

 
…

Italy’s foreign minister, Enzo Moavero Milanesi, will be visiting Washington from Jan. 3-4, meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the State Department and with national security adviser John Bolton at the White House

Italy’s foreign minister, Enzo Moavero Milanesi, will be visiting Washington in early January, meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the State Department and with national security adviser John Bolton at the White House. 

Italy’s Foreign Ministry said Friday that topics for the Jan. 3-4 meetings include global security, the migrant situation in the Mediterranean Sea, efforts to stabilize Libya, peace efforts in the Middle East, economic and social growth in Africa and trans-Atlantic political, economic and commercial ties. 

The ministry said “Italy intends to further intensity its relations with the United States,” which have been enhanced by nearly two centuries of an Italian-American community “that enlivens American life with its cultural, entrepreneurial and political dynamism.”
…

In China, 2018 has been a year that rights defenders worldwide say was extremely repressive, particularly when it comes to religious persecution.

China’s communist party leadership has strongly defended its actions amid growing calls that its actions may constitute crimes against humanity.

Those actions include the internment of hundreds of thousands – perhaps more than a million – Muslims in Xinjiang, the demolition and shuttering of Christian churches nationwide and the systemic crackdown on dissidents.

“2018 has been a year of human rights disasters in China, where all walks of people have paid a dear price over rights abuses. In the past year, China has systemically enforced the most audacious ever persecution policies,” said Dilxat Raxit, spokesman for the exile Germany-headquartered World Uighur Congress.

After months of denying their existence, China admitted that the camps do exist and launched a global propaganda campaign defending its interment of ethnic Uighurs and other Muslim minorities in the western region of Xinjiang.

Beijing has yet to confirm how many have been detained and calls the “vocational centers” a necessary part of their fight against terrorism and religious extremism. The reality, rights advocates argue, is that Muslim minorities are being detained and made to work overtime and without pay in factories for so-called job training.

China is also reportedly planning Xinjiang-style “re-education” camps in Ningxia  home to the Hui minority Muslims. Such moves highlight the communist party’s drastic efforts to wipe out ethnic Muslims and extend control over religious groups, Raxit said.

Bob Fu, the founder of China Aid, agrees. His group, based in the U.S. state of Texas, is committed to promoting religious freedom in China.

“This is a 21st century concentration camp, like Nazi Germany in 1930s and 1940s, so, the international community should unequivocally condemn and urge the Chinese regime to immediately stop this crime,” he said.

Call for sanctions

Rights advocates have called on governments worldwide to impose sanctions on Chinese officials involved in human rights abuses.

U.S. senators including Marco Rubio have denounced Xinjiang’s internment camps and other alleged abuses as possible crimes against humanity.  In November, Rubio and a group of bipartisan lawmakers introduced legislation to address the situation and urged American policymakers to be clear-eyed about the global implications of China’s domestic repression.

The bipartisan bills urge President Donald Trump’s administration to use measures including economic sanctions to defend Uighurs and other Muslim minorities. If that happens, China has said it will retaliate in proportion.

Intensified persecution

It is not just Muslims who have found themselves caught in the communist party’s crosshairs. China Aid’s Fu said China has also escalated its crackdown on Christian communities.

Authorities have torn down houses of worship and in some places, there is a push to ensure that anyone under the age of 18 cannot attend church or be under the influence of religion. China is officially atheist, but says it allows religious freedom.

In early December, Chinese police arrested Pastor Wang Yi, along with more than 100 members of his Early Rain Covenant Church in Chengdu, Sichuan.

The arrests may have been triggered by his manifesto, titled “Meditation on the Religious War,” in which he condemns the communist party and urges Christians to perform acts of civil disobedience.

“It’s just really the tip of the iceberg of overall religious persecution in China since the president, Xi Jinping, took power,” Fu told CNN recently about the case.

Political dissidents

If convicted, Wang could face a jail term of up to 15 years and he has vowed not to plead guilty or confess unless physically tortured, said Jonathan Liu, a priest with the San Francisco-based Chinese Christian Fellowship of Righteousness.

Liu said the pastor’s detention serves the dual purpose of suppressing Christians and silencing political dissidents in China as Wang is a follower of Calvinism  a branch of Protestantism that emphasizes social justice.

“Deeply affected by Calvinism, he cares for those who are socially disadvantaged or rights defenders. So, his church has formed many fellowships to provide care for those people,” Liu said, “In the eyes of the Chinese government, his church has become a hub for [political] dissidents.”

No prospects for improvement

During the United Nations’ periodic review of its rights record, China defended itself, arguing that criticism was “politically motivated” with UN members deliberately disregarding China’s “remarkable achievements.”

For critics, the outlook for 2019 isn’t promising.

“I can see no prospect that there would be any improvement in the coming year. And in fact, the last year, the most horrible thing is to see that the government is openly and fragrantly acting against the law, in total contempt of the [judicial] system they’ve set up,” Albert Ho, chairman of China Human Rights Concern Group in Hong Kong.

The fact that rights lawyer Wang Quanzhang is still being held incommunicado proves that China has little respect for its own laws, Ho said.

Among more than 300 rights lawyers and activists ensnared in China’s 2015 crackdown, lawyer Wang is the last awaiting trial.

After almost three and a half years of arbitrary detention, Wang was finally put on trial in a closed-door hearing in Tianjin on December 26. He reportedly fired his state-appointed lawyer “in the first minute” of his trial,signs of his refusal to cooperate with the authorities.

His wife, Li Wenze, and supporters, as well as western diplomats and journalists, were all barred from attending the hearing, which the court said involved “state secrets,” but rights activists denounced as a blatant violation of China’s own judicial principles.

The court said on its website that a verdict will be announced on a later date. Rights activists argued that Wang would be a blatant case of political persecution shall he be convicted with a maximum 15-year sentence.

Li and three other wives of lawyer victims who have been carrying out a long and loud campaign to secure Wang’s release as well as others, recently shaved their hair to protest his detention for more than three years.

“They (the authorities) keep on shamelessly breaking the law. So today we are using this act of shaving our heads in protest, to show they are persistently and shamelessly breaking the law,” Li said.
…

Violence and insecurity have forced more than 28 million children from their homes in 2018, UNICEF said in a news release Thursday.

The U.N. children’s fund said it had responded to more than 300 emergencies to help children caught in many of the 40 armed conflicts raging around the world. 

UNICEF said children had been tortured, raped, used as human shields or suicide bombers, recruited as child soldiers and subjected to a myriad of other atrocities by armed groups. 

While fighting has killed and maimed tens of thousands of children, UNICEF said many more had died from the indirect consequences of conflict, rather than the war itself. For instance, it noted, a child dies of preventable diseases every 10 minutes in Yemen, site of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. 

Caryl Stern, president and chief executive officer of UNICEF USA, told VOA that food insecurity had caused the rate of severe acute malnutrition to rise, with one in four children around the world being malnourished.

“For example, the Central African Republic, there has been such a dramatic resurgence in the fighting there … so two out of three kids are in need of humanitarian assistance in CAR right now,” Stern said. “And 43,000 children below age 5, they are projected to face an extremely elevated risk of death due to severe acute malnutrition.”

UNICEF said escalating fighting and attacks on schools and teachers in Cameroon and in the border regions of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger had deprived millions of children of an education. Similarly, it said, conflict in the Lake Chad Basin is putting the education of 3.5 million children at risk.

Sexual violence

Stern said sexual violence against women and girls was being used as a weapon of war in many conflicts.

“In northeast Nigeria, where you have armed groups, including the Boko Haram, they continue to target girls,” Stern said. “This is including rape. They are forced to become wives of fighters. They are used as human bombs. I mean, what is really going on there is just horrific.”

Stern said children had been abused in all countries and regions of conflict — in Afghanistan, in Myanmar, in Iraq, in Syria, eastern Ukraine and Central America. She said children were being victimized by political leaders who use them as pawns to push a political agenda.

“The border of our own country, the various different things that are happening around the world — Bangladesh and Myanmar. We have to separate the issue of politics from the issues that surround children,” she said.

Stern said children are not migrants. They are not refugees. They are not Somalia’s children or Yemen’s children or Syria’s children or Rohingya children. She said they are children first and foremost, and that there’s nothing political about saving the life of a child.
…

The United States will step up research in hypersonic offense and defense weapons, in response to a Russian test of a nuclear-capable hypersonic glider. 

“While the United States has been the world leader in hypersonic system research for many decades, we did not choose to weaponize it,” Defense Department spokeswoman Lt. Col. Michelle Baldanza told VOA. “Those who have decided to weaponize hypersonics are creating a war-fighting asymmetry that we must address.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who oversaw the test Wednesday, said the weapon is impossible to intercept and will ensure Russia’s security for decades to come.

He called it an “excellent New Year’s gift to the nation.”

The weapon, dubbed Avangard, detaches itself from a rocket after being launched and glides back to earth at speeds faster than the speed of sound. 

“The Avangard is invulnerable to intercept by any existing and prospective missile defense means of the potential adversary,” Putin said after the test. 

He said the weapon will become part of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces next year.

The Pentagon has been aware of Russian weapons advances for some time. In March, Putin bragged about having an array of new strategic nuclear weapons that can hit a target anywhere in the world. At the time, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Putin had only “confirmed what the United States government has known all along.” 

Baldanza said the U.S. will now increase focus on hypersonic weapons. “We are pursuing options for weapons delivered from land, sea and air to hold at risk high value, heavily defended and time critical targets at relevant ranges so that we can ensure our ability to dominate the battlefield by 2028.”

The test comes at a time of heightened tensions between Moscow and Washington over the allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, conflict in Ukraine, and the war in Syria.

National Security Correspondent Jeff Seldin contributed to this report.
…

A French septuagenarian, armed with a block of foie gras and a couple of bottles of wine, has set sail across the Atlantic in a barrel.

Jean-Jacques Savin, 71, set off from El Hierro in Spain’s Canary Islands and hopes to end his 4,500-kilometer journey to the Caribbean in about three months, relying only on ocean currents and trade winds.

“The weather is great. I’ve got a swell of one meter and I’m moving at 2 to 3 kilometers an hour. … I’ve got favorable winds forecast until Sunday,” Savin told AFP shortly after he set off. 

He described his journey as a “crossing during which man isn’t captain of his ship, but a passenger of the ocean.”

Savin spent several months building his bright orange, barrel-shaped capsule of resin-coated plywood that is strong enough to withstand the constant battering of waves and possible orca attacks.

The barrel, measuring 3 meters long and 2.10 meters across, is equipped with a kitchen area, and a mattress with straps to keep him from being tossed around by rough seas.

He is also carrying a bottle of Sauternes white wine and a block of foie gras for New Year’s Eve, and a bottle of Saint-Émilion red wine for his birthday in January, according to AFP.

Portholes on either side of the barrel and another looking into the water will provide the entertainment. It also has a solar panel that generates energy for communications and GPS positioning.

As he drifts along, Savin will drop markers in the ocean to help oceanographers study ocean currents. Savin will be studied by doctors for effects of solitude in close confinement.

He will also post daily updates including GPS coordinates, tracking the journey on a Facebook page. 

Savin’s adventure, which will cost a little more than $65,000, was funded by French barrel makers and crowdfunding.

Savin hopes to end his journey on a French island, such as Martinique or Guadeloupe. “That would be easier for the paperwork and for bringing the barrel back,” he told AFP.
…

The commissioner of the Metropolitan Police has suggested that Britain’s departure from the European Union will be costly and could have a damaging effect on public safety.

Cressida Dick told the BBC on Thursday that the adjustment to leaving the EU would be more challenging if there’s no deal in place between Britain and the bloc.

She says U.K. police will have to work out access to vital databases and will need new procedures so people can still be quickly arrested and extradited despite Brexit. Dick says that would be “very difficult to do in short-term” if Britain has no transition deal.

The commissioner hopes Britain will have systems like the ones in place now to facilitate fighting crime.

Prime Minister Theresa May has agreed upon a Brexit deal with EU leaders but many British lawmakers don’t like it.

 
…

British officials say nine migrants have been detained on a beach in southeastern England after crossing the English Channel in a small inflatable boat.

The Home Office said Thursday the group comprises five men, one woman, two boys and a girl.

They were intercepted in the English coastal county of Kent by the local lifeboat station.

Manager Matt Crittenden says the inflatable had a very small 10-horsepower engine.

A further rescue operation was also underway after up to eight people were believed to have been spotted on an inflatable vessel near another English coast.

This latest attempt to enter England comes after at least 43 migrants, tried to cross the English Channel on Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

There has been a surge in small boat crossings recently.

 
…

Russia has successfully conducted its final test of a hypersonic glider capable of carrying nuclear warheads, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

Putin, who oversaw the test Wednesday, said the weapon is impossible to intercept and will ensure Russia’s security for decades to come.

He called it an “excellent New Year’s gift to the nation.”

The weapon, dubbed Avangard, detaches itself from a rocket after being launched and glides back to Earth at speeds faster than the speed of sound.

On Wednesday, the Avangard was launched from the Dombarovskiy missile base in the southern Ural Mountains. Putin said it hit its designated target at a shooting range 6,000 kilometers away.

“The Avangard is invulnerable to intercept by any existing and prospective missile defense means of the potential adversary,” Putin said after the test.

He said the weapon will become part of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces next year.

The Pentagon is also working on hypersonic weapons, but U.S. officials have warned they lag behind Russia.

The test comes at a time of heightened tensions between Moscow and Washington over allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, conflict in Ukraine and the war in Syria.
…

Four international media organizations have called on the Albanian government to drop two draft laws on state regulation and compulsory registration of online media to fight fake news.

In a letter sent Wednesday to Prime Minister Edi Rama and Justice Minister Etilda Gjonaj, the European Centre for Press and Media Freedom, the European Federation of Journalists, Reporters Without Borders and PEN International asked them to withdraw the legislation, involve journalists and seek for international assistance to draw up new laws.

They said that in democratic countries “online media are self-regulated.”

In October, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe also expressed concern about a new registration system for media websites in Albania.

Albania expects to launch full membership negotiations with European Union next year.

 
…

A strong earthquake caused by Mount Etna’s ongoing eruption led to panic in eastern Sicily early Wednesday. No one was killed, but at least 30 people suffered minor injuries.

Italian authorities used helicopters early Wednesday to assess the damage, after the 4.8 magnitude earthquake struck. The island is home to Mount Etna, the volcano which has recently triggered hundreds of tremors, some stronger than others.

Homes were damaged, with cracks appearing on building walls and others collapsing entirely. One family whose home collapsed in the town of Fleri said it was a miracle they survived.

The local population in these areas is used to the constant eruptions of Etna, the most active volcano in Europe. However, one 80-year-old resident said never in his life had he felt a quake like the one that hit in the middle of the night.

Others described leaving their homes through the windows and said the lamps swayed and everything shook. They said they were frightened and prayed that such a powerful quake would not occur again.

The epicenter was located north of the eastern Sicilian city of Catania and officials said it was shallow, at a depth of just one kilometer from the surface. At least six towns were affected, and a section of the highway had to be closed for inspection.

In Pennisi, near Acireale, the bell tower of a church collapsed as did the statue of Saint Emidio, traditionally believed to protect against earthquakes. Officials were also assessing damage to cultural heritage sites.

Eugenio Privitera, the director of the national institute for geophysics and volcanology in Catania, said the seismic events are unsettling and caused by a fault that is dangerous when it moves.

Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio said he would visit those affected by the quake on Thursday.
…

In the Estonian capital of Tallinn, three-day-old Oskar Lunde sleeps soundly in his hospital cot, snuggled into a lime green blanket decorated with red butterflies. Across the room, his father turns on a laptop.

“Now we will register our child,” Andrejs Lunde says with gravity as he inserts his ID card into the card reader. His wife, Olga, looks on proudly.

And just like that, Oskar is Estonia’s newest citizen. No paper. No fuss.

This Baltic nation of 1.3 million people is engaged in an ambitious project to make government administration completely digital to reduce bureaucracy, increase transparency and boost economic growth. As more countries shift their services online, Estonia’s experiment offers a glimpse of how interacting with the state might be for future generations.

Need a prescription? It’s online. Need someone at City Hall? No lines there – or even at the Department of Motor Vehicles! On the school front, parents can see whether their children’s homework was done on time.

Estonia has created one platform that supports electronic authentication and digital signatures to enable paperless communications across both the private and public sectors.

There are still a few things that you can’t do electronically in Estonia: marry, divorce or transfer property – and that’s only because the government has decided it was important to turn up in person for some big life events.

This spring, government aims to go even further. If Oskar had been born a few months later, he would have been registered automatically, with his parents receiving an email welcoming him into the nation.

Marten Kaevats, Estonia’s national digital adviser, says the goal is a government that supports its citizens while staying out of the way.

“In an ideal world, in the case of an invisible government, when a new child is born neither of the parents would ever have to apply for anything: to get maternity leave, to get child support from the municipality, to get a kindergarten place, to put the name to the child,” he said. “All of those different services would be delivered automatically.”

Siva Vaidhyanathan, director of the Center for Media and Citizenship at the University of Virginia, says other countries have a lot to learn. Estonia took time to build security and privacy into its model, in contrast with failed efforts by private companies to provide secure online voting systems in the United States, for example.

“It made sure that state accountability is part of the process,” he said.

Estonians largely seem to have embraced the system despite global concerns about data hacks.

At a demonstration showcasing the digital system, project manager Indrek Onnik stood beside a huge screen illustrating his profile. He showed off his high school grades from a decade ago and his diving license records. If he had a dog, its vaccination record would appear there, too.

Citizens can monitor their data and see if any government or private institution accesses it.

“To generate trust, you really have to have transparency,” he said. “And that’s why people have access to their own data. And that’s why they can actually see if the government has used their own data.”

The platform is underpinned by software called X-Road, a decentralized data exchange system that links databases. Outgoing data is digitally signed and encrypted, and all incoming data is authenticated and logged.

The government, fearing attempts to compromise its borders by neighboring Russia, also has a backup plan to restore digital services in the event of invasion or severe cyberattacks: data “embassies” in countries like Luxembourg. Like a regular embassy, the servers are considered Estonian territory and would give the government a chance to boot up elsewhere if needed.

Making life simpler for citizens has economic benefits in a country otherwise known for unforgiving winters and old growth forests.

The project, which began in 1997, laid the groundwork for Estonia’s booming tech sector. Skype, the video-calling service Microsoft bought for $8.5 billion in 2011, is Estonia’s most famous high-tech export, but the impact is broader. Information and communications accounted for 5.9 percent of the economy last year.

The government hopes to increase that figure with an “e-residency” program that lets entrepreneurs around the world register their businesses in Estonia and gain a foothold in the European Union. More than 51,000 people from 167 countries have applied at a cost of 100 euros ($114) each.

The advances in digitization are the result of long-term thinking.

When Estonia declared independence in 1991, the economy was so backward in this former Soviet republic it had to be rebuilt from scratch. The leadership looked for an industry where the country could compete. They decided on information technology and the internet, a field that was as new as Estonia, said former President Toomas Hendrik Ilves.

When the cash-strapped country needed to replace a 1930s phone system, Finland offered a late 1970s analog system free of charge. But Ilves argued that the government should decline the offer and invest in digital technology.

“The only way we could do really well was to go digital,” Ilves said, speaking from Stanford University, where he is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. “We stood a chance of competing there.”

Ilves, who grew up in the United States and was introduced to computers in junior high, proposed getting kids started early. The government started building computer labs in schools. Banks supported the move, as it reduced the need for branches in rural villages. More than 99 percent of Estonia’s banking transactions now take place online.

Whether Estonia’s system can be used in larger countries is an open question, said Zvika Krieger, head of technology policy and partnerships at the World Economic Forum.

What works in a small, progressive country won’t necessarily work in sprawling democracies like the U.S. or India.

“When you add in more people, more diverse stakeholders, more layers of government at the city, state, and local level, you are adding in exponentially more complexity,” Krieger said. “Estonia is a good first test case. And now the question is whether other countries will find Estonia’s success compelling enough to take the risk to try it at a larger scale.”

Estonia sees its approach as a prototype for modern democracy – a counterpoint to authoritarian countries intent on using digitization to control their citizens. Ilves, who travels around the world talking about the project, tells other countries that increased efficiency builds trust – and improves governance.

“Estonians hate their politicians just as much as everyone else,” he said. “But at least since the administration of the state works extremely well and efficiently, people trust the system.”

Andrejs Lunde is among the believers.

He says digital government makes life so much easier that it’s worth any potential security risk, pointing out that personal information can be stolen from paper-based systems as well.

“If someone really wants my information, they will get it anyway,” said Lunde. “If they can get Hillary’s emails, they can get mine.”
…

French authorities said eight migrants were picked up from a stalled boat Tuesday while trying to cross the English Channel to Britain, where the government office that oversees immigration reported that almost 30 more were rescued in the waters between southern England and northern France. 

The French regional maritime authority, or prefecture, said in a statement that the small rubber boat with a failed engine was spotted Tuesday off the coast of Calais. A police helicopter monitoring the area directed a tugboat to the stranded migrants, the prefecture said.  

The maritime authority didn’t provide the passengers’ nationalities.  

Calais, a port city on one end of a Channel tunnel that connects France and English by train, long has been a magnet for migrants fleeing conflict or poverty in Africa and the Mideast. French officials two years ago closed a makeshift camp that swelled to a population of 10,000 at one point as people waited to try to hop trucks taking rail ferries to England.  

5 incidents on Christmas

The Channel has seen a recent spike in migrants attempting the trip from France to England in small boats. Britain’s Home Office said border agents responded to five separate boating incidents in English waters starting early Christmas Day involving passengers who said they were from Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. 

The Home Office put the number of England-bound migrants the French tugboat took on at nine, not eight. The French maritime authority could not be reached to resolve the discrepancy.  

The office told Britain’s Press Association that all received medical evaluations and were sent on for immigration interviews. Social welfare agencies would assume care of the two children among the passengers, the news agency reported.
…

Less than a day before arriving in Moscow to salvage frayed ties with his Russian counterpart, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he no longer considers Russia a “brotherly nation.”

According to a television broadcast by Belsat, a Belarus-focused satellite channel headquartered in Warsaw, Poland, Lukashenko told a Monday Cabinet session that he no longer considered Minsk’s longtime regional ally a fraternal state “because I was informed that Russia is not receptive to it.”

News of Lukashenko’s comments, which were prompted by Russia’s refusal to provide financial compensation for changes to recently implemented export fees, filtered into the Kremlin midday Tuesday, just hours before he was set to head into a closed door meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss a range of topics aimed at improving bilateral cooperation.

Less than an hour before the high-level talks kicked off – their 12th face-to-face meeting this year – Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov countered Lukashenko’s comments by declaring a “loss of trust lately” with Moscow’s closest historical ally.

“We don’t trust the work of your customs,” Siluanov was quoted as telling an informal press gaggle in the Kremlin.

Bilateral ties faltered after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, which Lukashenko called “a bad precedent,” likely because the small former Soviet republic, which does not being to the European Union or NATO, is economically dependent on Moscow for trade, natural gas and other natural resources.

Diplomatic relations have been further strained by accusations of what Belarus calls artificially inflated taxes on oil and gas, while Russia has repeatedly expressed concerns about customs violations.

Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan have a duty-free arrangement under which Moscow sends crude and oil products to Minsk with no export fee. Belarus then re-exports some of those goods, pocketing the associated charges.

Russia has used cheap energy exports and loans to Belarus as a way of keeping its former Soviet neighbor in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit, but the arrangement has become harder to sustain as Russia’s budget tightens, partially as a result of Western sanctions.

Russia also has accused Belarus of skimming payments on Russian duties by exporting gasoline and other oil products under the guise of aftermarket oil-based products, such as solvents and commercial chemicals.

Russia unexpectedly refused a request from Belarus for $310 million in compensation from a 2018 change in Russian oil taxes, Belarus’s deputy prime minister, Igor Lyashenko, told Reuters last week.

The Russian government in June approved changes in oil taxes that will see oil export duties being gradually cut over the next six years; but, as a result, Belarus believes it could lose $10.8 billion by 2024.

Finance Minister Siluanov said Russia never promised any compensation to Belarus over the tax changes.

“We consider such changes, including the tax maneuver in the oil and gas sector, as an internal matter of the Russian Federation,” he said.

According to The Moscow Times, the ongoing tensions didn’t stop the men from shaking hands before Tuesday’s meeting, where Lukashenko called on Putin to “not to drag old disputes into the new year.” 

“Overall, I believe our relations have been developing quite well,” Putin said upon opening the meeting, according to an official Kremlin press statement.

“Of course there are some problems, which is natural given the scope of our interaction,” Putin added, saying that both sides had come well prepared to address the most pressing issue – energy relations. “I suggest we listen to both sides even if we fail to reach any agreement,” he said.

Some information in this story is from Reuters.
…

Russia on Tuesday expanded its economic sanctions on Ukraine, adding more than 250 people and businesses to a blacklist first announced at the start of November.

According to a decree by Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, 245 individuals and seven companies, mostly in the energy and defense sectors, were sanctioned by Moscow.

Relations between Moscow and Kiev have deteriorated since a pro-Western government came to power after the 2014 revolt against a pro-Russian leader, Moscow’s annexation of the Crimea and the outbreak of war in eastern Ukraine.

A total of 567 individuals and 75 Ukranian companies now face Russian economic sanctions, which put a freeze on any assets they have in Russia.

On his Twitter account, Medvedev said the sanctions were “to defend the interests of the Russian government, businesses and people.”

Tensions between the two neighbors have worsened since November when Russia’s coastguard captured three Ukrainian naval vessels and their crews off the Crimean coast.

Among those sanctioned on Tuesday were Ukrainian defense, energy, insurance and logistics companies as well as Odessa’s mayor and other high-ranking Ukraine officials.

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Kiev has taken a series of measures against Russian interests, including blocking Russian internet services and social media.

The conflict pitting pro-Russian separatists against Ukrainian government forces is estimated to have claimed more than 10,000 lives — one third of them civilian — since it broke out four years ago.
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