Sebastian Kurz, leader of Austria’s conservative People’s Party (OVP), is set to become the world’s youngest leader after declaring his party’s victory in Sunday’s general election. At 31, Kurz is believed to be younger than North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and France’s Emmanuel Macron who is approaching 40. With most of the votes counted, The People’s Party won more than 31 percent of the vote and is expected to form a coalition with right-wing Freedom Party (FPO).VOA’s Zlatica Hoke has more.
…

Ireland dispatched its armed forces to bolster flood defenses on Sunday and warned people against non-essential travel as the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia threatened the country with its worst storm in 50 years.

Ophelia, the sixth major hurricane of the Atlantic season, is due to make landfall on the south west coast of Ireland at around 0500 GMT on Monday, the Irish weather service said, describing the storm as “unprecedented.”

Hurricane force winds are likely off Ireland’s south coast but they are expected to ease before they reach the coastline, said the weather service, which has declared a Status Red weather alert.

The weather service has warned some gusts may exceed 130 kilometers per hour (80 miles per hour).

The government has also warned of localized coastal flooding and likely disruption to transport and electricity services.

“You should not be out in this storm … this is an extreme weather event,” the chairman of Ireland’s National Emergency Coordination Group Sean Hogan said at a briefing.

Asked if it was likely to be the worst storm in half a century, he said the “comparable weather event” was Hurricane Debbie, which killed 12 in Ireland in 1961. Ophelia has the potential to be a life-threatening event in Ireland, he said.

The storm is likely to pass close to a west of Ireland golf course owned by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has been planning a wall to protect its greens from coastal erosion.

“The storm has the potential to reshape stretches of the Irish coast, John Sweeney, a climatologist at Maynooth University,” said.

“It is going to be perhaps an event comparable to Debbie in 1961 which has effectively marked many of the coastlines of the west coast of Ireland to the present day,” Sweeney told state broadcaster RTE.

Members of the armed forces have been sent to Tralee on the south west coast to build coastal defenses with sandbags.

Britain’s meteorological service said in a statement that the weather system may effect road, rail, air and ferry services.

British media are comparing the storm to the Great Storm of 1987, which subjected parts of the United Kingdom to hurricane strength winds 30 years ago to the day.
…

Former U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton cautioned Britain on Sunday over its push to secure a trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump after it leaves the European Union.

Clinton, the Democratic Party candidate who lost out to Trump in last November’s election, also said Britain would face serious disruption if it left the EU without a negotiated deal with Brussels.

The British government has talked up the prospect of bilateral trade deals with the United States and others as one of the major benefits of leaving the EU following last year’s surprise referendum vote to leave.

Asked about the prospects of a British-U.S. deal, Clinton told the BBC: “You’re making a trade deal with somebody who says he doesn’t believe in trade, so I’m not quite sure how that’s going to play out over the next few years.”

British Prime Minister Theresa May visited Trump in January to talk trade. The countries share $200 billion of trade each year.

But May has since intervened in a dispute between U.S. aerospace firm Boeing and Canadian planemaker Bombardier, lobbying in the interests of Bombardier to try to protect jobs at its factory in Northern Ireland.

Clinton also said Britain would be at a “very big disadvantage” if divorce negotiations with the EU failed, and went on to compare the factors behind the Brexit vote to her own election loss.

“Looking at the Brexit vote now it was a precursor to some extent to what happened to us in the United States… The amount of fabricated, false information that your voters were given by the ‘Leave’ campaign,” she said.

She said her own presidential campaign was subject to similar treatment, citing the spread of false stories by online news outlets, and warned that Britain and other countries must be alert to the risks of such new media.

“The big lie is a very potent tool,” she said.
…

After sitting fifty years in the National Geographic archives, 100 hours of footage on Jane Goodall and her groundbreaking observations of Chimpanzees in the African forest of Tanzania have been compiled into a documentary film. At a screening of the film in Los Angeles, Goodall spoke to VOA’s Elizabeth Lee about her work and thoughts on the film.
…

Hurricane Ophelia, a rare storm for the North Atlantic, was expected to bring high winds and rough seas to five western counties of Ireland this weekend.

Ophelia, strengthening offshore near the Azores Islands, was a   Category 3 storm, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. It had top sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour (115 mph) and was expected to produce total rain accumulations of up to 10 centimeters (4 inches) over the southern Azores.

Seven of the nine islands of the Azores were on red alert as ordered by regional civil protection services. The islands were expecting heavy rainfall overnight.

The 245,000 people who inhabit the Azores were told to stay inside while the storm passes.

Ophelia was expected to wind down slightly before reaching Ireland as a tropical cyclone on Monday. Five counties were placed on red alert for severe weather conditions on Monday and Tuesday, according to the Irish Meteorological Service.

Ireland, which only rarely sees hurricanes, was expected to endure winds in excess of 130 kph (80 mph) on Monday.

Coincidentally, Monday will be the 30th anniversary of what has been nicknamed the Great Storm of 1987, a hurricane that took down 15 million trees in Britain and killed more than 20 people in Britain and France together.
…

The United Nations warns some 4 million people across Ukraine are facing a desperate situation as winter approaches and are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance to survive the bitterly cold months ahead.

Ukraine is into its fourth year of war, a war that the United Nations estimates has killed about 10,000 people and injured more than 23,500 others. No resolution is in sight to what has become a frozen conflict between the Kyiv government and Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine.

This is causing immense suffering to millions of people living in zones close to the contact line that separates the areas controlled by each side. The UN reports some four million people need food, health services, shelter, water and sanitation and protection as winter approaches.

Jens Laerke is spokesman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. He says most of the people in urgent need of aid live in the rebel-controlled areas in the east, though pockets of need also exist in Government-controlled areas throughout the country.

“One of the results of this deteriorating crisis is that we now estimate that 1.2 million people in Ukraine on both sides of the contact line…are food insecure. So, that is certainly a concern,” said Laerke.

Laerke says some 600,000 people, most living in separatist east Ukraine, are unable to access their pensions, which are critical for their survival.

He warns aid agencies will not be able to provide the humanitarian aid needed to help Ukraine’s millions of vulnerable people this winter without more money. He notes only 26 percent of this year’s $200 million U.N. appeal for Ukraine has been received.
…

The Vatican trial over $500,000 in donations to the pope’s pediatric hospital that were diverted to renovate a cardinal’s penthouse is reaching its conclusion, with neither the cardinal who benefited nor the contractor who was apparently paid twice for the work facing trial.

Instead, the former president of the Bambino Gesu children’s hospital and his ex-treasurer are accused of misappropriating 422,000 euros from the hospital’s fundraising foundation to overhaul the retirement home of Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, the Vatican secretary of state under Pope Benedict XVI.

Prosecutors have asked for a guilty verdict, a three-year prison term and a fine of 5,000 euros ($5,910) for the ex-president, Giuseppe Profiti. They asked to dismiss the case against the ex-treasurer, Massimo Spina, for lack of evidence.

The trial, which began in July and resumes Saturday with the defense’s closing arguments, exposed how Bertone bent Vatican rules to get his retirement apartment in shape for him to move into after Pope Francis was elected in 2013 and named a new secretary of state.

Retirement nest 

After retiring in 2013, Bertone was assigned a 400 square meter (4,305 square feet), top-floor apartment in the Vatican-owned Palazzo San Carlo, which sits on the edge of the Vatican gardens and offers fabulous views of St. Peter’s Basilica and overlooks the Vatican hotel where Francis lives.

During the trial, Bertone was shown to have personally engineered the unprecedented maneuver to get an old friend, Gianantonio Bandera, to do the renovation. Bertone’s project jumped the queue for Vatican real estate repairs, and avoided the normal external bidding process required for such an expensive overhaul, presumably because he promised to foot the bill himself.

And Bertone did indeed pay some 300,000 euros ($355,000) out of his own pocket. The problem is the hospital foundation also paid Bandera’s firm 422,000 euros for a job that totaled 533,000 euros, including communal repairs to the palazzo’s leaky roof.

The chief engineer of the Vatican’s building maintenance office, Marco Bargellini, testified that Bertone’s August 2013 request for renovations was unique. Bargellini said he had never seen a case where a tenant proposed a project with the construction firm already chosen, since the Vatican has a list of contractors who would normally bid for the contract.

Bandera’s firm, Castelli Re, originally estimated the renovation at 616,000 euros, a fee Bargellini said was excessive compared to market rates. But he said the Vatican approved it after Bandera offered a 50 percent discount up-front.

In the end, Castelli Re went bankrupt, and the hospital’s 422,000 euros were sent instead to another Bandera company located in Britain. 

A donation made

The only hint of a potential kickback from Bandera’s apparent double-billing involved a proposed six-figure “donation” from Bandera to the hospital foundation. Profiti said he “didn’t exclude” that he had sought such a donation, and Spina testified that he tried to get the money out of Bandera. Bandera, however, pleaded financial hardship after his company went bankrupt and never paid up.

Neither Bertone nor Bandera were indicted in the case, though it’s possible prosecutors in the Vatican and Italy now have the evidence they need to mount a case against the builder over the apparent double billing.

At the trial, Bandera testified that he never billed twice for the work, though he acknowledged he was no longer fully in control of the company after it went bankrupt in early 2014.

Bertone has insisted he knew nothing of the hospital’s payment. After the scandal came to light in late 2015, Bertone quickly made a 150,000 euro ($177,300) “donation” to the hospital. He insisted it wasn’t a payback but a gesture of goodwill.

Profiti, for his part, admitted he used foundation money to spruce up Bertone’s flat because he planned to host hospital fundraising soirees there. None were ever held.

Profiti’s replacement as hospital president, Marella Enoc, testified that “it’s not my style to have fundraising dinners in the homes of cardinals or celebrities.”
…

UNESCO’s executive board voted Friday to make a former French government minister the U.N. cultural agency’s next chief after an unusually heated election that was overshadowed by Middle East tensions.

The board’s selection of Audrey Azoulay over a Qatari candidate came the day after the United States announced that it intends to pull out of UNESCO because of its alleged anti-Israel bias.

The news rocked a weeklong election already marked by geopolitical resentments, concerns about the Paris-based agency’s dwindling funding and questions about its future purpose.

If confirmed by UNESCO’s general assembly next assembly next month, Azoulay will succeed outgoing Director-General Irina Bokova of Bulgaria, whose eight-year term was marred by financial woes and criticism over Palestine’s inclusion in 2011 as a member state.

Azoulay narrowly beat Qatar’s Hamad bin Abdulaziz al-Kawari in the final 30-28 vote after she won a runoff with a third finalist from Egypt earlier Friday. The outcome was a blow for Arab states that have long wanted to lead the U.N. Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.

UNESCO has had European, Asian, African and American chiefs, but never one from an Arab country.

In brief remarks after she won the election, Azoulay, 45, said the response to UNESCO’s problems should be to reform the agency, not to walk away from it.

“In this moment of crisis, I believe we must invest in UNESCO more than ever, look to support and reinforce it, and to reform it. And not leave it,” she said.

The new director will set priorities for the organization best known for its World Heritage program to protect cultural sites and traditions. The agency also works to improve education for girls, promote an understanding of the Holocaust’s horrors, defend media freedom and coordinate science on climate change.

The next leader also will have to contend with the withdrawal of both the U.S. and Israel, which applauded its ally for defending it and said Thursday that it also would be leaving UNESCO.

The election itself had become highly politicized even before the U.S. announced its planned departure.

Azoulay started the week with much less support than Qatar’s al-Kawari but built up backing as other candidates dropped out. She went on to win a runoff with a third finalist, Moushira Khattab of Egypt. Egypt’s foreign ministry has demanded an inquiry into alleged “violations” during the voting.

Jewish groups opposed al-Kawari, citing a preface he wrote to a 2013 Arabic book called “Jerusalem in the Eyes of the Poets” that they claimed was anti-Semitic. He wrote, “We pray to God to liberate (Jerusalem) from captivity and we pray to God to give Muslims the honor of liberating it.”

In March, the Simon Wiesenthal Center wrote an open letter to German Ambassador Michael Worbs, chair of the UNESCO Executive Board, to criticize the organization for accepting the former Qatari culture minister’s candidacy.

During the months leading up to the election, Egypt and three other Arab nations were engaged in a boycott of Qatar over allegations that the government funds extremists and has overly warm ties to Iran.

French media reported that Qatar recently invited several members of the UNESCO executive board on an all-expenses-paid trip to the country’s capital, Doha.

Azoulay’s late entry into the leadership race in March also annoyed many UNESCO member states that argued that France shouldn’t field a candidate since it hosts the agency. Arab intellectuals urged French President Emmanuel Macron to withdraw his support for her.

She will be UNESCO’s second female chief and its second French chief after Rene Maheu, UNESCO’s director general from 1961-74. While she is Jewish, her father is Moroccan and was an influential adviser to Moroccan kings, so she also has a connection to the Arab world.

The Trump administration had been preparing for a likely withdrawal from UNESCO for months, but the timing of the State Department’s announcement that it would leave at the end of 2018 was unexpected. Along with hostility to Israel, the U.S. cited “the need for fundamental reform in the organization.”

The outgoing Bokova expressed “profound regret” at the U.S. decision and defended UNESCO’s reputation.

The U.S. stopped funding UNESCO after it voted to include Palestine as a member state in 2011, but the State Department has maintained a UNESCO office and sought to weigh in on policy behind the scenes. UNESCO says the U.S. now owes about $550 million in back payments.

Azoulay acknowledged the image of the organization — founded after World War II to foster peace, but marred by infighting between Arab member states and Israel and its allies — needed rebuilding.

“The first thing I will do will be to focus on restoring its credibility,” she said.

While UNESCO’s general assembly must sign off month on the executive board’s leadership pick, but officials said the confirmation vote typically is a formality.
…

Iran’s president said Friday that the nuclear deal it signed with six world powers in 2015 could not be revoked, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would not certify that Iran was in compliance with it.

In a nationally televised speech following Trump’s remarks, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani urged all signatories to the agreement to honor their commitments. He called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) “an outstanding achievement” in international diplomacy and said Iran would continue to comply with it.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran will not be the first to withdraw from the deal. But if its rights and interests in the deal are not respected, it will stop implementing all its commitments and will resume its peaceful nuclear program without any restrictions,” Rouhani said.

The Iranian leader also hit back at Trump’s characterization of Iran as a “dictatorship” and “rogue regime,” calling the American president a “liar” and a “dictator.”

“Today the U.S. is more isolated than ever against the nuclear deal, isolated than any other time in its plots against [the] people of Iran,” Rouhani said.

He rejected Trump’s remarks listing Tehran’s support for international terrorism, calling the examples “baseless accusations” and adding that the “Iranian nation does not expect anything else from you.”

EU reaction

European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini held a news conference in Brussels minutes after Trump spoke, saying the EU and the rest of the international community were committed to preserving the deal.

“It is not a bilateral agreement. It does not belong to any single country. And it is not up to any single country to terminate it,” Mogherini said.

She noted the multilateral agreement had been unanimously endorsed in U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231.

“We cannot afford as an international community, as Europe for sure, to dismantle a nuclear agreement that is working and delivering — especially now,” Mogherini said.

The EU foreign policy chief noted that the International Atomic Energy Agency had verified eight times, via a “comprehensive and strict” monitoring system, that Iran was meeting all its nuclear-related commitments.

“There have been no violations of any of the commitments included in the agreement,” Mogherini told reporters.

IAEA Director Yukiya Amano released a statement saying Iran was already subject to the world’s most robust nuclear verification regime and was implementing the deal’s requirements.

WATCH: Highlights of Trump’s Speech on Iran Nuclear Deal

In a joint statement, British Prime Minister Theresa May, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they were concerned about the possible implications of Trump’s decision not to recertify the Iran nuclear deal.

“Preserving the JCPOA is in our shared national security interest. The nuclear deal was the culmination of 13 years of diplomacy and was a major step toward ensuring that Iran’s nuclear program was not diverted for military purposes,” the European leaders said in the statement.

Opportunity seen

Asked whether he was confident he could get the Europeans to renegotiate the Iran deal, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Friday that he thought there was a real opportunity to address all the threats posed by Iran.

“I fully expect that our allies and friends in Europe and in the region are going to be very supportive in efforts undertaken to deal with Iran’s threats,” Tillerson told reporters.

In Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said his country was committed to supporting the Iran nuclear deal.

Ahead of Trump’s remarks, the Kremlin warned that if the United States abandoned the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran would be likely to quit it as well. Russia is a signatory to the JCPOA, along with the United States, Iran, Britain, Germany and France.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying also voiced support for the Iran nuclear deal during Friday’s regular news briefing.

“China’s position on the Iranian nuclear issue has been consistent. The JCPOA has played a key role in upholding the international nuclear nonproliferation regime and the peace and stability of the Middle East region,” she said. “We hope that all relevant parties will continue to uphold and implement the JCPOA.”

Praise from Netanyahu

Praise for Trump’s tough stance on Iran came from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who released a video statement in English.

“I congratulate President Trump for his courageous decision today. He boldly confronted Iran’s terrorist regime,” Netanyahu said.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain also expressed strong support for Trump’s shift in policy toward Iran.

The Saudi Press Agency said Riyadh praised Trump’s “vision” and commitment to work with U.S. allies in the region in order to face common challenges, particularly “Iran’s aggressive policies and actions.”

But the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, which was awarded the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize, strongly criticized Trump’s decision.

The group’s executive director, Beatrice Fihn, said Trump’s “attempt to disrupt” the Iran deal despite Tehran’s compliance was a reminder of the “immense nuclear danger now facing the world” and the “urgent need” to prohibit and eliminate nuclear weapons.

“In a time with great global tension, with increasing threats of nuclear war, the U.S. president is igniting new conflict rather than working to reduce the risk of nuclear war,” she said.
…

The current diplomatic crisis between Turkey and the United States, sparked by the arrest of local U.S. employee Metin Topuz at a diplomatic mission, is underscored by growing fears in Ankara that Washington is conspiring against it.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a speech Friday, warned that Turkey is the target of daily attacks and plots, and in a thinly veiled reference to Washington added, “Those who supported terror groups such as the Fethullah Terrorist Organization (FETO) and the PKK failed to corner Turkey … [and] now are taking direct action.”

In its war against Islamic State, Washington is arming the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG. Ankara claims the group is linked to the PKK that has been fighting Turkey for decades and is designated by the U.S. and European Union as a terrorist organization.

Ankara blames FETO for last year’s failed coup in Turkey. Its alleged leader, Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, lives in the United States and has been subject to what so far have been failed attempts by Turkey to extradite him.

But behind the current war of words and reciprocal restrictions on the issuance of visas between the NATO allies is a pending New York court case.

“First and foremost is the case of Reza Zarrab, the Turkish Iranian so-called businessman, who [allegedly] has been involved in illicit trade with Iran, contravening the American embargo at the time. He is now in jail,” said political scientist Cengiz Aktar.

Zarrab allegedly organized a multibillion-dollar scheme to circumvent U.S. sanctions on Iran. U.S. prosecutors say the scheme also has implicated a senior Turkish state bank employee and a former minister.

“On the one hand, you arrest the deputy manager of my bank, who has not committed any crime,” Erdogan said Thursday, attacking the U.S. legal probe. “But on the other hand, my citizen [Zarrab] has been in prison in the U.S. for two years without crime, trying to use him as a confessor.”

Analysts suggest Ankara fails to understand the limitations of Washington’s influence.

“The indictment against the Iranian trader, Zarrab, and then later on, against Turkey’s deputy manager of Halkbank, is essentially now being driven by the judiciary in the U.S.,” said Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at the Carnegie Institute in Brussels. “So the executive .. in accordance with the principles of the independence of the judiciary, has little influence on how this procedure will unfold. And that’s something that Turkey’s policymakers should take into consideration.”

But Ankara views the Zarrab case not as a legal matter, but more as a conspiracy.

“He [Erdogan] believes there is a massive conspiracy against him, and America is part of this, and so is this court case,” said Semih Idiz, political columnist for the al-Monitor website.

This case, he added, “has potential political land mines strewn in it as far as the present [Turkish] administration is concerned, in connection with previous allegations of corruption.

Idiz went on to say that three ministers had to resign over those allegations. “And it has also involved the president’s son,” he added. “And there is the fear within the government and party that this case may revive that all again, especially as we are heading for elections in two years.”

In December 2013, Erdogan’s government was almost brought down by Turkish prosecutors investigating Zarrab on graft charges that implicated senior ministers and extended to a member of Erdogan’s own family.

The probe was shut down, and the prosecutors were arrested and accused of being followers of Gulen. Erdogan claimed the investigation was the first attempt by Gulen to unseat him from power, calling it a “judicial coup attempt.”

Pro-Erdogan media have sought to link this month’s arrest of U.S. diplomatic employee Topuz to the Zarrab case, producing video allegedly showing Topuz meeting with one of the Turkish prosecutors involved in investigating Zarrab in 2015.

Pro-government media also point out that while the Zarrab case is about to begin, Ankara’s year-long demand to extradite Gulen has not even reached the court.

With the Zarrab trial due to start in November in New York, the potential for more damage to already frayed U.S.-Turkish relations is real.

“It does not bode well,” warned columnist Idiz, “because the number of names involved [in the case] are likely to grow. And the [court] revelations, if they anger Erdogan and the government again … will be seen as part of this conspiracy against Turkey and against Erdogan. And the allegations put forward will heighten Americanism here.”
…

U.S. President Donald Trump, following impassioned appeals from some of America’s closest allies and members of his own administration, is likely to stop short Friday of calling for the abandonment of a 2-year-old nuclear deal with Iran while unveiling a more confrontational overall strategy towards Tehran.

The White House, early Friday, announced that the president, in consultation with his national security team, “has approved a new strategy for Iran.”

Lawmakers say that while Trump will no longer certify what is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) he will not urge Congress to reapply sanctions on Iran.

“He’s signaling his intense dislike for the deal, but taking no concrete steps to undermine it or to leave it,” Democrat Sen. Chris Coons, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, told MSNBC.

​Against it from the beginning

Trump has strongly opposed the deal since it was approved in 2015 with Iran by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the European Union. 

While accusing Iran of seeking to exploit loopholes in the deal and refusing to allow the United Nations’ atomic watchdog to inspect nuclear facilities on military sites, behavior the White House says “cannot be tolerated,” the Trump administration is now calling for the deal to “be strictly enforced.”

The Trump Iran policy instead focuses “on neutralizing the government of Iran’s destabilizing influence and constraining its aggression, particularly its support for terrorism and militants.”

White House officials said the goal will be to “deny the Iranian regime all paths to a nuclear weapon.”

If the president, as expected, announces he will no longer certify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement, Congress will have 60 days to decide whether to re-impose U.S. sanctions on Tehran.

Trump is “deep in thought, to say the least, about a way ahead in Iran,” White House Chief of Staff John Kelly told reporters Thursday. “He’s not the only one that thinks that maybe the deal that was struck under the previous administration is a deal that, in the long term, even in the medium and long term, will not protect America.”

“Iran is now a powerful nation state that remains the world’s largest state sponsor of terror,” CIA Director George Pompeo said Thursday, adding that its intelligence and security ministry in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “are the cudgels of a despotic theocracy,” Kelly said.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, pledged Wednesday a “tougher” response if Trump finds Tehran not in compliance with the deal. An Iranian military spokesman further promised that his country’s forces would teach the U.S. “new lessons” if needed.

​Concern at home, abroad

Word that the president would likely not certify the deal prompted an outpouring of concern earlier this week, both at home and abroad.

British Prime Minister Theresa May phoned Trump on Tuesday to urge him to think carefully about the consequences, calling the agreement “vital for regional security.” British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson called his counterpart Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to argue that the deal was “making the world a safer place.”

At a meeting of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Wednesday, the ranking Democrat, Rep. Elliott Engel, said he had originally opposed the JCPOA, when it was agreed to by the Obama administration. But he said he is now opposed to backing away from it.

“As the administration seems poised to take the first step from the JCPOA, I must say I view that course as a grave mistake,” Engel said. “Unless we see solid evidence that Iran is cheating, the United States has to live up to our word.”

Later, when questioned by a Republican committee member, Dana Rohrabacher, about whether they thought Iran is complying with the agreement, three of four witnesses testifying replied in the negative.

​What it required

The accord required Tehran to sharply restrict its nuclear program and allow more access to international inspectors. Iranian leaders also promised not to seek, develop or acquire nuclear weapons. In return, Iran received relief from crippling economic sanctions, including the release of billions of dollars in frozen overseas assets and re-admittance to the international banking system.

The Iran Project, a group led by several former U.S. diplomats backing the accord, says not recertifying “would have grave long-term political and security consequences for the U.S. — including another regional war.”

The group’s statement argues “no American national security objective would be served by scuttling the nuclear agreement as long as Iran remains in compliance and without a nuclear weapon.

But current and former U.S. intelligence and military officials say any Iranian action is unlikely to be carried out directly and that such behavior would not be a dramatic departure from Iran’s behavior since the JCPOA went into effect.

Peter Heinlein, Jeff Seldin contributed to this report.
…

Human rights group Amnesty International held events Thursday to mark 100 days since several of its Turkish staffers were detained in Istanbul.

This week, Turkish prosecutors officially filed an indictment against 10 of the human rights activists detained in July, along with Amnesty’s Turkey chairman Taner Kilic, and demanded jail sentences of up to 15 years on charges of supporting terrorist organizations.

Amnesty labeled the indictment “trumped-up and absurd.”

WATCH: Amnesty Marks 100 Days of Detention for Turkey Staff, as Ankara’s Rift With West Grows

“They were on day three of a workshop, a very routine workshop about digital security and also about maintaining the well-being of human rights defenders in difficult circumstances,” Amnesty’s Milena Buyum told VOA. “The imprisonment of human rights defenders is doubly problematic, because then the people who would be the defense against abuses are themselves being silenced.”

The detentions are part of a government crackdown following the 2016 failed coup, which has soured relations between Ankara and its Western allies, culminating this week in the mutual suspension of visa services between the United States and Turkey.

Bass announces visa suspensions

The outgoing U.S. ambassador, John Bass, announced the suspension of nonimmigrant visa services Sunday, following the recent unexplained arrests of two local employees.

“This arrest has raised questions about whether the goal of some officials is to disrupt the long-standing cooperation between Turkey and the United States,” said Bass, who is leaving Turkey to assume a new assignment in Afghanistan. “If true, this would put the people who work with, and work at, and visit our diplomatic facilities at risk,” he told reporters.

Turkey has accused the detained workers from the U.S. diplomatic mission of having links to U.S.-based cleric Fetullah Gulen, whom Turkey blames for the coup attempt. Gulen denies any involvement in the failed coup.

War of words

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan renewed the war of words at a press conference Thursday.

“The United States is trying to protect the rights of someone who has links to the Fetullah Terror Organization, who is hiding in their consulate with no diplomatic identity.”

Turkey’s rift with Berlin has also deepened as 11 German citizens go on trial on terror charges. Some German lawmakers want Europe to follow Washington’s lead.

“We still have a military cooperation with Turkey, our intelligences work together, we subsidize Turkey, the EU is in negotiations with Turkey about a customs union and visa liberalization is on the table as well. We see that the U.S. dealt with the issue differently. We have to ask ourselves what we need to do right now,” German lawmaker Heike Haensel said Wednesday before the start of the trial in Istanbul.

As relations between Turkey and its NATO allies continue to be strained, the United States says it is continuing to engage the Turkish government to seek an explanation for the arrests of its embassy staff.
…

Human rights group Amnesty International has held events to mark 100 days since several of its Turkish staff were detained in Istanbul. Prosecutors filed terror charges against the activists this week, the latest trials in a widespread crackdown that has soured relations between Ankara and its Western allies, culminating this week in the mutual suspension of visa services between the United States and Turkey. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
…

The International Organization for Migration says there has been a dramatic drop in the number of migrants from West Africa crossing the Sahel region into Niger, on their way to Europe. 

Migration officials attribute the drop in African migration to strong action by the government of Niger against human smuggling networks.  

The International Organization for Migration reports Niger has closed three of six transit houses in the town of Agadez, where migrants often stop on their journey.

IOM Niger Chief of Mission Giuseppe Loprete says migrants used to wait in the houses for smugglers’ vehicles to take them to Algeria or Libya.

“Many vehicles have been withdrawn by the army along the migratory routes.  Smugglers have been arrested,” Loprete said. “So, all this created a context—sent across a message that transiting Agadez is not easy, is not that easy.” 

Loprete tells VOA fewer migrants are arriving and staying in Agadez because of the difficulty in finding smugglers to take them to North Africa.

“Last year, the first six months, we were estimating five to 7,000 migrants transiting per week going to Algeria or Libya,” Loprete said. “Right now, our numbers show that we are 5,500 migrants per month transiting.  So definitely less migrants.” 

While the Agadez route is drying up, Loprate says migration to Europe is not.  He says smugglers are finding alternate, possibly more dangerous routes to transport their human cargo. 

He says Africans desperate to carve out a better life for themselves in Europe continue to risk their lives, making the perilous journey across the Sahel and eventually, across the Sahara Desert.
…

Kosovo’s prime minister has confirmed that the government will try to transform the nation’s security forces into a regular army through constitutional changes to satisfy the country’s international partners.

Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj said during a visit to Kosovo Security Force headquarters on Thursday that “we should give the constitutional mandate” to the future army.

Haradinaj has been prime minister since September.

President Hashim Thaci bowed to pressure from NATO and the U.S. earlier this year and withdrew legislation aimed at accomplishing the transformation.

The draft law needed only a majority vote in parliament to pass. Constitutional amendments would require backing from lawmakers representing Kosovo’s ethnic Serbs and other minority groups. They say they won’t back the change.

Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, which Serbia refuses to recognize.

 
…

Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg said Thursday she “absolutely” supports the public release of all advertisements produced by a Russia-linked organization during the 2016 presidential election.

Sandberg said the company is “working on transparency” following the revelation last month that a group with alleged ties to the Russian government ran $100,000 worth of ads on Facebook promoting “divisive” causes like Black Lives Matter.

“Things happened on our platform that shouldn’t have happened,” she said during the interview with Axios’s Mike Allen.

Later Thursday, Sandberg is set to meet with Congressional investigators who are looking into what role the advertisements which began running in 2015 and continued through this year may have played in the 2016 presidential election.

The $100,000 worth of ads represent a very small fraction of the total $2.3 billion spent by, and on behalf of, President Donald Trump and losing-candidate Hillary Clinton’s campaigns during the election.

Multiple congressional investigations have been launched, seeking to determine what effect alleged Russian meddling may have played in the election.

In addition, Robert Mueller, a former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, is conducting a criminal probe, including whether President Trump’s campaign colluded with Russian operatives during the election season. Trump has denied working with the Russians.

Facebook had previously agreed to disclose the thousands of Facebook ads to congress. Sandberg said Thursday she thinks “it’s important that [the investigators] get the whole picture and explain that to the American people.”

In response to the Russian ad buys, Sandberg said Facebook is hiring 4,000 new employees to oversee ads and content. She said the company is also using “machine learning and automation” to target fake accounts that spread fake news.

She defined fake news as “things that are false hoaxes” and said Facebook is working to stamp out the bad information by teaming up with third-party fact checkers and warning users before they share news deemed fake by Facebook.

She said it is important to be cautious when going after fake news because “a lot of what we allow on Facebook is people expressing themselves” and “when you cut off speech for one person, you cut off speech for all people.”

“We don’t check the information posted on Facebook before people post it, and I don’t think people should want us to,” she said.

Hundreds of fake accounts were used to distribute the Russia-linked advertisements, Sandberg said. But had those ads been posted by legitimate users, “we would have let them run,” she said.
…

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has signed a string of energy, military and other deals with Morocco during a North Africa tour.

Medvedev met Wednesday with Moroccan Prime Minister Saadeddine El Othmani and presided at a signing ceremony for 11 bilateral agreements.

The agreements cover cooperation in areas such as customs, agriculture, the military and culture, as well as energy efficiency and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

The disputed Western Sahara region that Morocco annexed in the mid-1970s also was a topic of the talks.

Medvedev is traveling with a large Russian government delegation and Russian business executives. Morocco’s King Mohammed VI hosted a lunch in the prime minister’s honor.

He arrived in Morocco after a visit to Algeria, where he discussed oil prices and energy cooperation.
…

The Italian government on Wednesday won two confidence votes on a fiercely contested electoral law that is likely to penalize the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement in next year’s national election.

The proposed voting system is backed by three of the country’s four largest parties, with the center-left government looking to rush it onto the statute books ahead of elections, which are due by May 2018.

Five-Star supporters protested in front of parliament as the Chamber of Deputies approved two confidence motions by a wide margin. A third such vote is scheduled for Thursday ahead of a final ballot in the lower house on the disputed bill.

Unlike the current rules, the new system would allow the formation of multi-party coalitions before the ballot, a factor likely to hurt 5-Star, which is topping most opinion polls and refuses to join alliances.

“They want to take away our right to choose,” said Nicola Zuppa, 45, who said he had paid 175 euros ($200) to travel from Padua in northern Italy to take part in the protest, which drew up to 2,000 people in the heart of Rome.

The use of multiple confidence motions allowed the ruling coalition to truncate discussion on the bill and sidestep dozens of planned secret votes on various amendments. The reform still needs the approval of the upper house Senate.

“If you allow the electoral rules to be changed again so that the scum of the country rises to the top yet again, it will be your children who pay the price,” 5-Star’s founder Beppe Grillo wrote on his blog on Wednesday.

Harmonization

President Sergio Mattarella, the only figure with the power to dissolve parliament, has called for new voting rules because the current system is very different for the upper and lower houses, meaning it could throw up conflicting majorities.

All previous attempts to harmonize the rules have failed, most recently in June when dissident deputies used a secret vote to upend part of the proposed legislation.

Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD) drafted the latest version, which is supported by right-wing parliamentary rivals Forza Italia (Go Italy!) and the Northern League. Five small parties are also backing the proposed law.

Five-Star estimates that the new rules could cost it up to 50 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and potentially scupper its chances of being the largest group in parliament after the vote.

Mattarella is expected to give the formation that gets the most seats the first crack at forming a government. The PD has denied trying to stymie the 5-Star’s chances.

“No one is preventing (5-Star) from making alliances if they want to,” said Ettore Rosato, the parliamentary party leader of the PD who has put his name to the reform. “If they don’t want to do them, they can continue to be an isolated party.”

Analysts say the new electoral system looks unlikely to throw up a clear parliamentary majority, with opinion polls showing the center-left, center-right and 5-Star splitting the vote three ways.

Such a result could lead to the creation of a grand coalition that would need to span the political divide.

($1 = 0.8452 euros)
…

The European Union will not transfer a final tranche of loans worth 28 million euros ($33 million) to support Moldovan justice reforms as the authorities have not fulfilled the required conditions, the EU delegation to Moldova said Wednesday.

The European Union is the ex-Soviet nation’s largest external donor, but payments have been frozen or repeatedly delayed by slow reform progress and political upheaval.

“The EU has closely observed the reform process and noted that the Moldovan authorities showed insufficient commitment to reforming the justice sector,” the delegation said in an online statement.

“The Moldovan authorities have not fulfilled the EU’s conditions for receiving the last financial transfer under the justice reform program, which amounts to 28 million euros,” it said.

The disbursement of other EU funding, including a 100 million-euro ($117 million) macro-financial assistance package of loans and grants for 2017-18, has also been delayed.

Last week, Prime Minister Pavel Filip said Moldova would not receive any financing under the agreement this year.

New electoral law

The EU has said a basic precondition for the financial assistance is a respect for the democratic process and the rule of law.

Nevertheless, Moldova this year introduced a new electoral law that a pan-European rights body ruled could make the system more susceptible to undue influence by vested interests.

Moldova’s economy grew 4.1 percent last year, recovering from a contraction of 0.4 percent in 2015 due in part to an economic crisis in nearby Russia that hit exports and remittances from Moldovans working there.

The country, Europe’s poorest, has also been rocked by a scandal that saw the equivalent of an eighth of its gross domestic product stolen from three of its largest banks in 2012-14.

The World Bank and International Monetary Fund have forecast growth of between 4 and 4.5 percent in 2017.
…

The standoff between Spain and Catalonia entered a new phase on Tuesday as Catalonia’s leader delayed by several weeks a formal declaration of independence from Spain.

The current political crisis could now take several paths.

Government response

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has called an emergency Cabinet meeting for Wednesday to decide the Spanish government’s response to the declaration. Rajoy had a meeting with his main rival, Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, late on Tuesday.

He could deploy the “nuclear option” — an article of the constitution which enables him to sack the regional government and call an election.            

Before resorting to this option, which has never been used, Rajoy’s government could call a parliamentary vote on whether to try to persuade Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont to abandon the

independence drive.

Rajoy is also scheduled to speak at an extraordinary session of the Spanish parliament at 4 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).

Whichever way he turns, Rajoy is likely to face criticism, either for clamping down too fiercely or for not pushing a hard enough line against separatism.

Another possibility is that the judiciary steps in, with the public prosecutor calling Puigdemont and other politicians to Madrid to testify.

Dialogue

A genuine dialogue between the Spanish and Catalan authorities to resolve the standoff remains highly unlikely.

Puigdemont and other regional politicians signed a document on Tuesday proclaiming “full sovereignty” for Catalonia, but it was unclear whether the move had any legal value.

Puigdemont said he was suspending the effects of a declaration of Catalan independence to allow time for dialogue.

But the central government immediately responded that any dialogue would have to take place “within the law” and said Puigdemont did not have the right to demand talks.

Meanwhile, far-left group CUP said the ball was in the Madrid government’s court and Rajoy should be the one taking a step in their direction.

Formal declaration of independence

Tuesday’s declaration was largely symbolic because it was not formally endorsed by the regional parliament.

The anti-capitalist Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), whose influence is disproportionate to its small size, insists a vote should take place, as stated in the Catalan law.

While it has for now maintained its support for the regional government, it said it had set a one-month deadline for talks.

If talks fail to happen, the CUP and another pro-independence party, Junts pel Si, are likely to ask the Catalan parliament to formally endorse Tuesday’s declaration of independence.

This declaration would be immediately blocked by Spain’s constitutional court and force the Spanish government to step up further its legal and political response to the crisis.

Regional election

If talks do not happen and a declaration of independence is not put to a vote in the Catalan parliament, the CUP could withdraw its support, triggering a regional election.

This election could also be called by Puigdemont himself to back up his weakened position or by the Madrid government if it considers Puigdemont and the Catalan authorities have gone too far, for instance if they seek a formal declaration of independence in the regional parliament.

 
…

The United States says it is “very disappointed” by the Turkish government’s arrest of two local staffers of the American Consulate, as diplomatic tensions between the two countries ramp up following the bilateral suspension of all nonimmigrant visa services.

Last week, for the second time this year, Turkish authorities arrested a local staff member of the U.S. diplomatic mission. U.S. Ambassador John Bass later announced a temporary halt to all nonimmigrant visa applications. Turkey retaliated by announcing its own suspension of visa services in the United States.

On Tuesday, the State Department confirmed that Turkish authorities had summoned a third U.S. Embassy staff member over the weekend. That staff member has not been formally arrested.

“These actions are deeply disturbing to us,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said during Tuesday’s briefing.

Nauert also rejected suggestions that Bass had acted unilaterally in suspending visa services in the U.S. Embassy and consulates throughout Turkey.

“Our ambassadors tend to not do things unilaterally,” said Nauert. “This was coordinated with the State Department. It was coordinated with the White House and coordinated with the embassy.”

Officials say U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Saturday. Undersecretary of State Tom Shannon also spoke to his Turkish counterpart prior to the announcement that the U.S. government would suspend nonimmigrant visa services at the U.S. Embassy and consulates in Turkey.

Bass said the suspension of nonimmigration visa service would minimize the number of visitors to U.S. Embassy and consulates in Turkey, while Washington assesses Ankara’s commitment to the security of American diplomatic facilities and personnel.

Erdogan blames U.S. envoy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday blamed Bass for the diplomatic crisis, saying Turkish officials would boycott farewell meetings with Bass, who is due to leave Ankara soon to take up a position in Kabul as U.S. envoy to Afghanistan.

“An ambassador in Ankara taking decisions and saying he is doing so in the name of his government is strange,” said Erdogan.

Erdogan also accused “agents” of infiltrating U.S. missions.

“No state would allow such spies that pose an internal threat,” Erdogan said Tuesday alongside Serbia’s president in Belgrade.

The dispute has plunged already fragile relations between the two NATO allies to a new low after months of tension linked to the conflict in Syria, last year’s failed military coup in Turkey, and U.S. court cases against Turkish officials.

“I think right now the domestic situation is very prone to anti-Americanism, and he [Erdogan] is playing on that,” Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute for Turkish studies, told VOA on Tuesday.

Extradition effort

Relations between Washington and Ankara have been troubled by disputes over U.S. support for Kurdish fighters in Syria and Turkey’s unsuccessful request for the extradition of U.S.-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, whose followers were blamed by the Turkish government for last year’s coup attempt.

The Turkish government has rounded up about 200,000 people, accusing them of not only stirring up the coup effort but also supporting the Gulen movement.

U.S. courts have also indicted a Turkish banker and a former minister for conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions on Iran, as well as 15 of Erdogan’s security guards for attacking peaceful protesters during his visit to Washington in May.

It is “definitely a sign of deteriorating relations,” Daniel Serwer of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies told VOA. “Both sides need to stop escalating and start talking.”

Arrest of consulate employee

Last week, Turkey arrested Metin Topuz, a U.S. consulate employee and a Turkish national, accusing him of having regular communication with alleged leading members of what Turkey has deemed a terrorist network blamed for the failed coup against Erdogan last year.

Washington dismissed the allegations, saying it has been unable to determine why the arrest occurred or what evidence exists against the employee.

“The employee works in an office devoted to strengthening law enforcement cooperation with Turkish authorities and ensuring the security of Americans and Turkish citizens,” said Nauert, questioning Ankara’s motivation for the arrest.

“What’s going on here? What are they trying to accomplish by this behavior toward our locally employed staff?” the State Department spokeswoman asked.

Bass, the U.S. ambassador, said in a video statement on October 9 that the suspension of visa services was not a “visa ban” on Turkish citizens, but a suspension of the consideration of new visa applications.

Turkish applicants told VOA’s Turkish service that upon going to the U.S. Embassy and consulates for their appointments, they were simply given a piece of paper instructing them to call a phone number for more information.

Omer Yavuz came from Bursa to the U.S. Consulate in Istanbul for a visa appointment that was postponed to this week. Instead of having an interview, he was given a piece of paper with a phone number on it.

“I’ve been calling the number several times since this morning but couldn’t reach anyone. No one is giving any complete information. I came here today because I’ve read procedures would continue for approved visa applications. But I don’t know what would happen,” Yavuz said.

He said he probably needed to cancel plans to visit his cousin in Houston.

VOA’s Turkish service and Esha Sarai contributed to this report.
…

The European Union is seeking to reopen its embassy in Libya pending security conditions, officials said on Tuesday, offering further political support for the Tripoli government struggling to establish control.

EU leaders will announce at their summit in Brussels on Oct. 19-20 that they “encourage work underway to rapidly establish a permanent EU presence in Libya”, according to their draft joint statement seen by Reuters.

But the statement makes clear no such move is imminent as it would be conditional on improving the security situation on the ground.

The EU moved its mission to neighboring Tunisia in mid-2014 as security worsened in Libya amid escalating fighting between rival factions since the 2011 fall of longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi, ousted by rebels during a NATO bombing campaign.

Of 28 EU states, only Italy, Libya’s former colonial master and still the most influential European state on the ground, has an embassy in the country, where the United Nations has officially recognized the government of Fayez Seraj.

The EU has also engaged increasingly with Seraj, especially as it sought Libya’s help in curbing the flow of African refugees and migrants, hundreds of thousands of whom have been boarding smugglers’ boats on the coast of the lawless state to cross the Mediterranean for Europe.

The bloc has financed, equipped and trained Libya’s border and coast guards, despite rights groups sounding alarm over grave abuses refugees and migrants suffer in Libya.
…

Will the collapse of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and the ending of the terror group’s caliphate make much difference when it comes to the recruitment and radicalization of Europeans or reducing “lone wolf” attacks?

With U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces close to finishing off IS in Raqqa, the terror group’s de facto capital in Syria, the question is becoming more pertinent.  But French and Belgian officials don’t believe the killings will stop in Europe, at least not in the foreseeable future.

Analysts say the caliphate was useful in the marketing of IS and attracting foreign recruits, as well as allowing the group to differentiate itself from rival al-Qaida, which opposed the setting up of an Islamic state and ridiculed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s self-appointment as caliph.  Now one of the only ways for the terror group to remain relevant and to try to continue to outshine its jihadist competitor al-Qaida is to strike the West as frequently as it can, experts say.

Last month, al-Baghdadi broke an 11-month public silence by releasing an audio-tape mocking the United States, calling on jihadists to rally against the Syrian regime and insisting IS “remains” despite its rapid loss of territory.  He echoed the message of the late IS propaganda chief Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, who declared that holding territory mattered less than the will to fight.

But much of al-Baghdadi’s focus was on celebrating attacks on the West, saying, “America, Europe and Russia are living in a state of terror.”

Speaking in August, after IS had been ousted from the Iraqi city of Mosul and as Kurdish-dominated forces started their assault on Raqqa, French President Emmanuel Macron said the fight against Islamic terrorism is France’s “top priority” and would remain so for some time.

French and Belgian officials say IS is highly innovative and despite efforts to reduce the group’s “virtual footprint” it is still able to disseminate propaganda, which it carefully calibrates to better mobilize followers, testing new ideas as it shapes narratives for whatever it considers tactically appropriate.

Researcher Charlie Winter says for IS the media war has always been as important as physical victories in Syria and Iraq.

In a paper for the International Center for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence, a research center based in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, Winter noted for IS “propaganda production and dissemination is at times considered to be even more important than military jihad.”

He added, “The Islamic State sustainably incites activism, whether from operatives or online volunteers, by venerating information warfare in a manner unparalleled by any other Salafi-Jihadist actor.”

Even with the loss of most of its territory IS can still wage information warfare, recruit and incite.  Winter says, “The international community must be equally as creative and strategic-minded in its approach towards counter-communications.

‘Deadly social model’

The overall problem of radicalization remains the same today as it did before IS’s battlefield defeats, officials and analysts warn.  Former French prime minister Manuel Valls has dubbed radicalization “a deadly social model.”

France isn’t alone in struggling to understand radicalization and to develop effective ways to counter it.  Sixteen years after the 9/11 attacks and Western governments are still unclear about the mechanics of radicalization and why some embrace the radical jihadist vision and do so to the point of staging or participating in murderous attacks.

Sociologist Farhad Khosrokhavar, a professor at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (School for Advanced Studies of Social Sciences) in Paris, worries radicalization is still seen by governments too much as purely a national security challenge.  Governments, he has argued, fail to study enough the long-term effects of stigmatization, social exclusion and delinquency.  The role of the internet and closed social-media groups in forming jihadist allegiances and creating the cult of what he calls the “negative hero” is only just beginning to be understood.

Psychological factors are also crucial.  At a conference in London last year, Khosrokhavar highlighted how a substantial number of jihadist attackers in the West had been diagnosed with depression or other mental illnesses.

But efforts to deepen understanding of radicalization often meet resistance from political leaders, especially when they are facing public clamor to stop terror attacks.  Valls is famous for once saying he was tired of “social, sociological, and cultural excuses” to explain jihad.  “To explain is to excuse,” he said.

France, which since 2015 has been battered by a series of attacks with the loss of over 240 lives, has more than 350 Islamic extremists locked up in French prisons, nearly 6,000 militants are under police surveillance and a further 17,000 classified as potential threats.  Belgium’s numbers aren’t as high, but the relatively small country occupies an outsized role when it comes to European jihadism. Belgium has contributed per capita more fighters to IS and other jihadist groups in the Levant than any other European country.

Both countries have grappled with shaping de-radicalization programs that work. It was only two years ago that France launched efforts to try to stop the radicalization of disaffected youth, much later than several other European nations.  But its efforts have been troubled and a plan to open 13 de-radicalization centers, one in each of France’s 13 regions, has fallen by the wayside after the first experimental center was closed down earlier this year amid arguments over methods.

 
…

Pressure is building on Catalonia’s hardline secessionist leaders, from moderates and business leaders in the restive north-east Spanish region, to pull back from the brink and to refrain from issuing a declaration of independence later on Tuesday.

Carles Puigdemont, the region’s president, and other secessionist leaders have vowed to announce a breakaway state after last week’s controversial plebiscite, which was declared illegal by the government and courts in Madrid.

But an exodus of businesses, including two of Spain’s leading banks, a major telecommunications company and a construction group, as well as a massive weekend protest in Barcelona by 350,000 Catalans opposed to separation, is starting to take its toll among moderates, who are alarmed at the prospects of economic collapse and civil unrest.

They are calling for a pause and for more efforts to open up negotiations with the center-right government of Mariano Rajoy, who is under pressure from his party to maintain a strong line with the secessionists. Barcelona’s mayor, Ada Colau, argued Monday night against declaring independence, saying it would threaten Catalonia’s “social cohesion.”

She called for urgent negotiations, warning that Spain faced its “greatest institutional crisis” since its return to democracy following the death of Gen. Francisco Franco in 1975. “We cannot allow ourselves to jeopardize either social cohesion or Catalan institutions,” she said.

She added: “The results of 1 October cannot be used as a guarantee for the declaration of independence. But they do represent an opportunity to open dialogue and international mediation.”

The secessionists’ coalition, Together For Yes, commands only a thin majority in Catalonia’s regional government and it isn’t clear whether a majority will approve an independence declaration. The far-left Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) is urging Puigdemont to honor the result of the disputed referendum, pointing out that under the referendum law the regional parliament passed ahead of the plebiscite, the legislature pledged to do so.

Puigdemont is set to reveal his plans later Tuesday in an address to the regional parliament — his first comments before the legislature since the referendum a week ago that saw an overwhelming majority of Catalans vote for secession. The turnout, though, was under 50 percent and opinion polls have suggested consistently that more Catalans want to stay with Spain than breakaway.

He had originally promised to make a unilateral declaration of independence within 48 hours of a victory for the secessionist campaign, but held off doing so, calling instead for talks with the Madrid government.

But even senior members of Puigdemont’s own more moderate Catalan European Democratic Party are urging caution, including Ramon Tremosa, a member of the European Parliament. He is counseling following Slovenia’s strategy when it broke away from the then Yugoslavia. Slovenia announced secession but suspended implementation pending negotiations with its Yugoslav neighbors and European powers.

“Nobody can recognize internationally an independence that has not been achieved,” he said. “We know from the experience of Slovenia and other countries that this experience may take weeks or months,” he added.

But inching Catalonia closer to breaking away may well invite as firm a response from Madrid as an open declaration of independence. Spanish prime minister Rajoy is expected by analysts to invoke Article 155 of the constitution, which allows the central government to take control of an autonomous region, if it fails to “fulfill the obligations imposed upon it by the constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain.”

Article 155 has never been invoked before and it risks angering even more secessionist Catalans, who are still furious at the Spanish national police’s efforts to disrupt the October 1 referendum, which saw officers raiding polling stations, beating voters and firing rubber bullets at crowds. Thousands of Guardia Civil and national police who were deployed by Madrid to stop the vote have remained in the region.

At the weekend Rajoy warned he would do everything in his power to prevent Catalonia from breaking away. In an interview with Spain’s El País newspaper. “We are going to prevent independence from occurring… I can tell you with absolute frankness that it will not happen,” he said.

Pedro Sánchez, leader of the opposition Socialists, said Monday his party will support the government against any unilateral attempt to dismember the country.

How Catalonia’s own regional police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra, responds in the coming days, either to a declaration of independence or imposition of direct rule, remains unclear. The force was accused of behaving passively when it came to shuttering polling stations with national police unions accusing it of “clear disobedience.”

The force’s commander, Josep Lluís Trapero, is being investigated for sedition by Spain’s national court.

 
…

The leader of Spain’s Catalonia region is due to address members of the regional parliament Tuesday, while the government in Madrid worries Catalan representatives will vote for a unilateral declaration of independence.

Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont did not reveal ahead of time what his message would be Tuesday.

Political leaders, both domestically and internationally, urged Catalan leaders on Monday to back down to ease growing tensions in the country.

Major speaks out

Barcelona’s mayor was the latest to speak out against a declaration of independence, saying this would put “social cohesion” at risk. Ada Colau called on all sides to de-escalate tensions to solve “the most severe institutional crisis since the re-establishment of democracy in Spain.”

The head of Spain’s main opposition party, Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, also called for Catalan leaders to drop an attempt to declare independence, saying “a universal declaration of independence doesn’t have a place in a state ruled by law.”

Germany and France also weighed in Monday against a split. German Chancellor Angela Merkel “affirmed her backing for the unity of Spain,” but also encouraged dialogue, according to her spokesman.

France said it would not recognize Catalonia if the region declared independence. “This crisis needs to be resolved through dialogue at all levels of Spanish politics,” France’s European affairs minister Nathalie Loiseau said.

Tensions have grown in Spain since last week when Catalonia held a regional vote for independence, an election deemed illegal by Madrid. Police cracked down on the vote, firing rubber bullets and storming crowds to disrupt the voting, leading to hundreds of injuries.

Huge support at the polls

Catalan leaders say 90 percent of those who went to the polls voted to break with Spain. However, opponents of the referendum say the vote did not show the true will of the region because those who want to stay in Spain mainly boycotted the polls.

Police say about 350,000 demonstrators attended an anti-independence protest on Sunday.

On Saturday, thousands of protesters gathered at rallies in Barcelona, Madrid and other Spanish cities to demand dialogue to end the dispute.

Banks, businesses may move

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he would not rule out using constitutional powers to take away Catalonia’s autonomous status if the region declares independence.

In an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Pais published Sunday, Rajoy said that he will consider employing any measure “allowed by the law” to stop the region’s separatists.

The crisis has prompted several major banks and businesses to announce they will move their headquarters out of Catalonia to other parts of Spain so they can be sure they will remain in the European Union common market.

Catalonia, a northeastern region in Spain, has its own language and cultural traditions. It is home to 7.5 million people and accounts for about a fifth of Spain’s economy.
…

NATO is set to launch a new multinational force in Romania on Monday to counter Russia along its eastern flank and to check a growing Russian presence in the Black Sea following the Kremlin’s 2014 seizure of Crimea.

Initially a small force relying on troops from 10 NATO countries including Italy and Canada, as well as Romania, the land, air and sea deployments will complement about 900 U.S. troops already in place.

“Our purpose is peace, not war,” Romanian President Klaus Iohannis told the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Bucharest. “We are not a threat for Russia. But we need dialogue from a strong position of defense and discouragement.”

Russia accuses NATO of trying to encircle it and threatening stability in Eastern Europe, which NATO denies. Around the Black Sea, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are NATO members while Georgia and Ukraine aspire to join.

The NATO force aims to develop its allied presence in the Black Sea region, rich in oil and gas, without escalating tensions, as it seeks to counter Russia’s own plans to create what military analysts say is a “buffer zone.”

The 2008 Russian operation to put troops in Georgia’s South Ossetia’s region, its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine since 2014 and its annexation of Crimea have raised the stakes, with all sides warning of a new, Cold-War style scenario.

Details of the new force size were unclear. Based inland at a base near the southern Romanian city of Craiova, the land component of the force involves a brigade-size multinational NATO force, typically some 3,000 to 4,000 troops, but the contribution of non-Romanian troops is modest.

Aside from Romania, Poland is the biggest troop contributor.

Bulgaria, Italy and Portugal will train regularly with the force in Craiova, and Germany is also expected to contribute.

In addition to existing NATO Black Sea naval patrols, a maritime presence will include more allied visits to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, training and exercises.

NATO air forces will also be limited at first, but Britain is deploying fighter planes to Romania. Canada is already patrolling Romanian air space, along with national pilots. Italy is patrolling Bulgarian air space.

“It sends a signal of NATO’s resolve,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who will visit the troops later Monday, stressing that NATO also had a 40,000-strong response force in case of a conflict.

‘West Berlin’ model

Some Eastern Europeans want NATO’s new ballistic missile defense shield, which includes a site in Romania, to be part of NATO’s eastern posture vis-a-vis Russia.

“The Aegis Ashore system would add another level of deterrence,” said Maciej Kowalski, an analyst at the Polish Casimir Pulaski Foundation, referring to the U.S.-built system. NATO says the system is to intercept any Iranian rockets.

As in the Baltics and Poland, where the U.S.-led alliance has some 4,000 troops, NATO says the relatively light multinational model recalls allied support for West Berlin in the 1950s, when British, French and U.S. forces ensured the Soviet Union could not control all Berlin.

Under NATO’s founding treaty, an attack on one ally is an attack on all, meaning all 28 NATO nations would be required to respond in the case of any potential Russian aggression.

While months in planning, the establishment of the force comes as Russia winds down its biggest war games since 2013.

The Zapad, or West, games were a show of its latest weaponry and its ability to quickly mass soldiers on NATO’s borders.

The enhanced NATO presence in Romania and Bulgaria marks a diplomatic success for Bucharest, which gained greater persuasive power because it is set to reach a NATO goal of spending 2 percent of economic output on defense this year, a priority for U.S. President Donald Trump.

Romania pushed for bigger NATO naval presence on the Black Sea for over a year, but found its neighbor Bulgaria wary of provoking Russia. Turkey only supports limited NATO reinforcements, concerned about breaking international rules limiting the scale of patrols in the Black Sea.

Turkey has played down the extent of Russia’s militarization of Crimea, which NATO says involves a laying of surface-to-air missiles and communications jamming equipment.
…

The Russian Justice Ministry has warned U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that it may impose restrictions on some of the broadcaster’s operations in Russia in response to what Moscow claims is pressure on Russian state-funded outlets in the United States.

The ministry said in a letter dated October 9 that the operations of Current Time television, the Russian-language network run by RFE/RL in cooperation with Voice of America, fall under Article 2 of Russian law on NGOs and foreign agents, and that Russia therefore retains the right to impose restrictions on Current Time.

“The activity of your organization may be subjected to restrictions envisioned in the legislation of the Russian Federation,” the statement, signed by ministry official Vladimir Titov, said.

RFE/RL’s Russian Service, known as Radio Svoboda, and Idel Realii, a Russian-language site run by the broadcaster’s Tatar-Bashkir Service, received similar letters.

“Current Time, Radio Svoboda, and Idel Realii are journalistic organizations. We trust we will be able to continue our work,” RFE/RL Vice President and Editor in Chief Nenad Pejic said in a statement in response to the letter.

U.S. law enforcement agencies have been looking into the operations of at least two Russian media outlets — the satellite TV channel RT and the news website Sputnik.

Funded by the Russian government, RT was accused in a U.S. intelligence report of being one of the primary channels through which the Kremlin sought to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Since then, calls have grown in Washington to force RT and Sputnik to register under a 79-year-old law initially aimed at restricting Nazi propaganda. During the Soviet era, some Russian-language media, including the newspaper Pravda and the wire agency TASS, registered as foreign agents.

Last month, RT chief editor Margarita Simonyan said U.S. officials had ordered the channel to register under the foreign-agent law. The Justice Department has repeatedly declined to comment.
…

British Prime Minister Theresa May urged the European Union on Monday to show “leadership and flexibility” in unblocking Brexit talks, saying the ball is in the bloc’s court.

But the EU lobbed the ball straight back. European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said the responsibility for progress is “entirely in the U.K. court.”

More than six months have passed since Britain triggered the two-year countdown to its EU exit. A fifth round of divorce negotiations opened Monday in Brussels, with both sides frustrated by the lack of progress.

On Monday May is due to update British lawmakers on developments since her major speech in Florence, Italy, last month. May’s Downing St. office said she will say that “the ball is in their court. But I am optimistic we will receive a positive response.”

In the Florence speech, intended to kick-start the foundering negotiations, May said Britain would be willing to abide by EU rules and pay into its coffers for two years after Brexit in 2019.

She also signaled Britain would pay what it owes to settle financial commitments it has made to the EU, but without naming a figure.

EU leaders called her suggestions positive but asked for more details.

The U.K. is increasingly anxious to move talks on to discussing future trade relations, but so far the EU says there hasn’t been “sufficient progress” on the major divorce terms – the size of the Brexit bill, the status of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and the rights of EU citizens living in Britain and Britons living in other member states.

Schinas, the EU spokesman, said “there has been so far no solution found on step one, which is the divorce proceedings.”

“So the ball is entirely in the U.K. court for the rest to happen,” he said.

Some EU countries are striking a more conciliatory note. Danish Foreign Minister Kristian Jensen has called for compromise, saying “this will never be a 100 percent win for one side or the other side.”

Jensen said the sides “are now on the same page” and “it is rather important we get on to a more close and more speedy process of concluding some of the issues.”

May’s official spokesman, James Chapman, said Britain believed May’s speech in Florence had created “momentum.”

“The response from the EU and its leaders has been constructive,” he said. “But let’s see what happens in the next round of talks.”
…

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) have reportedly reached a deal with Bavarian conservatives on a refugee cap as both sides look to unite ahead of talks on forming a new government.

Merkel and the head of the Christian Social Union (CSU), Horst Seehofer, plan to spell out the details of the deal Monday.

Reports say the number of refugees to be allowed into Germany would be capped at about 200,000 per year. Merkel has, until now, rejected limits. She has said they would violate the country’s constitution which grants anyone facing political persecution the right to seek asylum.

Under the deal, asylum seekers would not be turned away at the border until their cases are heard.

Both parties also agreed to do more to attract immigrants with highly-sought-after labor skills and also up the fight against human traffickers.

Bavaria comprises about 15 percent of Germany’s population. Support from its CSU conservatives is vital as Merkel proceeds with talks on forming a new coalition government with the liberal Greens and pro-business Free Democrats.

Merkel won a fourth term as chancellor in last month’s parliamentary election, but her Christian Democrats failed to win an outright majority.

The far-right Alternative for Germany party won a stunningly-high 94 of 709 seats in the Bundestag and could cause trouble for the moderately conservative Merkel.
…

When Israel’s envoy told UNESCO delegates last July that fixing the plumbing in his toilet was more important than their latest ruling, it highlighted how fractious geopolitics are paralyzing the workings of the agency.

Whoever wins the race to replace Irina Bokova as head of the U.N.’s cultural and education body next week will have to try to restore the relevance of an agency born from the ashes of World War II but increasingly hobbled by regional rivalries and a lack of money.

Its triumphs include designating world heritage sites such as the Galapagos Islands and the historic tombs of Timbuktu — re-built by UNESCO after Islamist militants destroyed them.

But in a sign of how toxic relations have become, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told world leaders at the U.N. General Assembly last month that UNESCO was promoting “fake history.”

Like Israel’s plain-speaking envoy Carmel Shama Hacohen, Netanyahu was referring to UNESCO’s designation of Hebron and the two adjoined shrines at its heart – the Jewish Tomb of the Patriarchs and the Muslim Ibrahimi Mosque – as a “Palestinian World Heritage Site in Danger.”

Jews believe the Cave of the Patriarchs is where Abraham, Isaac and Jacob and their wives, are buried. Muslims, who, like Christians, also revere Abraham, built the Ibrahimi mosque, also known as the Sanctuary of Abraham, in the 14th century.

Israeli-Palestinian hostilities, though, are only part of a minefield of contentious issues on which the U.N. body has to hand down rulings.

Japan, for example, threatened to withhold its 2016 dues after UNESCO included documents submitted by China on the 1937 Nanjing Massacre in its “Memory of the World” program.

The Paris-based organization, which also promotes global education and supports press freedom, convenes its executive council on Oct. 9 to begin voting on seven candidates.

Azerbaijan, China, Egypt, France, Lebanon, Qatar and Vietnam have put forward candidates. There is no clear frontrunner.

UNESCO’s struggles worsened in 2011, when the United States cancelled its substantial budgetary contribution in protest at a decision to grant the Palestinians full membership. UNESCO has been forced to cut programs and freeze hiring.

“It’s an organization that has been swept away from its mandate to become a sounding board for clashes that happen elsewhere, and that translates into political and financial hijacking,” said a former European UNESCO ambassador.

Drawing Lots

All the candidates have vowed a grassroots overhaul and pledged independence from their home nations.

France and China, both permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, argue the agency needs “strong leadership, which can only come with the backing of a major power.

Chinese candidate Qian Tang has almost 25 years experience at UNESCO. His bid fits into Beijing’s soft power diplomacy, though Western capitals fret about China controlling an agency that shapes internet and media policy.

Former French culture minister Audrey Azoulay carries the support of France’s new young president, Emmanuel Macron. But the last minute French candidacy has drawn the ire of Arab states, notably Egypt, who believe it should be their turn.

The Arab states face their own political tests. Their three entries underscore their own disunity, something the Egyptian hopeful Moushira Khattab has indicated stymie the Arab bid.

The crisis engulfing Qatar and its Gulf Arab neighbors, who have called Doha a “high-level” sponsor of terrorism, meanwhile may have hurt the chances of former Qatari culture minister Hamad bin Abdulaziz al-Kawari.

Voting takes place over a maximum five rounds. If the two finalists are level, they draw lots.
…