Iraq Sentences 19 Russian Women for Joining IS

A court in Iraq has sentenced 19 Russian women to life in prison for joining the Islamic State terrorist group.

The Central Criminal Court in Baghdad, which deals with terrorism cases, also sentenced six women from Azerbaijan and four from Tajikistan to life in prison on Sunday on the same charge.

Most of the defendants told the court they had been brought to Iraq against their will from Turkey by IS fighters.

Earlier this month, the Russian Foreign Ministry said between 50 and 70 “Russian-speaking women” were being held in Iraq, along with more than 100 of their children.

IS took over nearly one third of Iraq in a blistering 2014 offensive, seizing control of the country’s second largest city, Mosul, among others.

Baghdad declared military victory over the jihadists in December, after expelling them from all urban centers.

Experts estimate that Iraq is holding 20,000 people in jail over suspected IS membership. There is no official figure.

Iraqi courts have sentenced to death a total of more than 300 people, including dozens of foreigners, for belonging to IS.

 

White House Mystery: Where is Macron’s Gifted Oak Tree?

A mystery is brewing at the White House about what happened to the oak tree President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron planted there last week.

 

The sapling was a gift from Macron on the occasion of his state visit.

News photographers snapped away Monday as Trump and Macron shoveled dirt onto the tree during a ceremonial planting on the South Lawn. By the end of the week, the tree was gone from the lawn. A pale patch of grass was left in its place.

 

The White House hasn’t offered an explanation.

 

The oak sprouted at a World War I battle site that became part of U.S. Marine Corps legend.

 

About 2,000 U.S. troops died in the June 1918 Battle of Belleau Wood, fighting a German offensive.

 

 

Merkel: Europe Will Push Back If Hit with Trade Tariffs

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she and the leaders of France and Britain are ready to push back if the Trump administration does not permanently exempt the European Union from new import taxes on aluminum and steel imports.

 

Merkel said in a statement that she spoke with President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday and Prime Minister Theresa May on Sunday after returning from Friday talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.

 

Merkel says the three leaders “agreed that the U.S. ought not to take any trade measures against the European Union,” which is “resolved to defend its interests within the multilateral trade framework.” The chancellor’s statement did not outline specific steps the 28-nation EU might take.

 

The EU’s temporary exemption from the tariffs expires Tuesday.

Power Outage Disrupts Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport

Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport was temporarily closed early Sunday as a large power outage hit all operations at one of Europe’s busiest airports.

Authorities closed roads to Schiphol and stopped train traffic to the airport around 0300 GMT to “ensure the safety of travelers,” the airport said, as check-in procedures had become impossible and the airport’s main halls overflowed with waiting passengers.

Roads to the airport were reopened around 0430 GMT, as power was restored, but the disruption of services would have “severe consequences for air traffic during the day,” airport spokesman Jacco Bartels said.

This would also affect flights to Amsterdam at other airports, as Schiphol would be able to handle only 10 arriving planes per hour on Sunday morning, with priority given to the large number of flights waiting to leave the airport, Bartels said.

Schiphol is the third-busiest airport in Europe in numbers of travelers, after London Heathrow and Paris Charles de Gaulle.

Joint Law Enforcement Effort Hits IS Propaganda Outlets

Law enforcement authorities in the United States, European Union and Canada this week began a joint cybercampaign against Islamic State online communication channels that will “severely disrupt” the group’s propaganda machine, the EU’s law enforcement agency Europol said.

The multinational action, led by Belgian federal prosecutors, was launched  Wednesday and Thursday and targeted IS media outlets, including Amaq news, al-Bayan radio, Halumu and Nashir news.

IS’s Amaq news agency is believed to be a major propaganda outlet for the terror group. The group relies on the outlet to spread propaganda in several languages, including English and French. Amaq has broadcast claims of responsibility for deadly terrorist attacks in Paris, Brussels, Berlin and Barcelona.

“With this groundbreaking operation we have punched a big hole in the capability of IS to spread propaganda online and radicalize young people in Europe,” Rob Wainwright, the head of Europol, said in a statement released Friday.

“I applaud the determined and innovative work by Europol and its partners to target a major part of the international terrorist threat prevalent in Europe today,” he added.

Earlier efforts

This is not the first time Western countries joined forces to crack down on IS propaganda capabilities. A coordinated effort in August 2016 hit Amaq’s mobile application and web infrastructure. Another multinational operation led by Spanish Guardia Civil in June 2017 against the outlet helped authorities identify radicalized individuals in over 100 countries around the world.

Europol claimed the two-day effort this week led to the seizure of digital evidence by law enforcement authorities and compromised IS broadcast capabilities and materials.

Europol authorities said the data retrieved as a result of the crackdown would be used to identify the administrators behind IS media outlets.

In a separate statement, Belgian police said the operation also aimed to seize and shut down computer servers used to spread terror propaganda in Europe.

Over the years, IS has weaponized the internet to radicalize, recuit and inspire acts of terrorism in the West and around the world.

The group’s ability to produce and distribute new propaganda has been significantly diminished since it lost nearly 98 percent of the territory it once held in Iraq and Syria, and social media giants Facebook, Google and Twitter increased their efforts to remove radical content from the internet. 

VOA Turkish service’s Arzu Cakir contributed to this report from Paris. 

Russia, Iran, Turkey Criticize Western Airstrikes on Syria 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Saturday that airstrikes on Syria, conducted by the U.S., Britain, and France on April 14, were a violation of international law and indicated that the Western powers were trying to destroy the peace process.

Lavrov, speaking after meeting in Moscow with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts, said such “attempts to … destabilize the situation” encourage the extremists in Syria to go on with their armed struggle.

Lavrov and his counterparts said they agreed that Syria’s territorial integrity should be preserved, while accusing the United States of plans to “reformat” the Middle East and divide Syria into parts.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javid Zarif said there was no military solution to the Syrian crisis. He also said that Iran condemned the use of chemical weapons and hoped that the investigation of an alleged Syrian attack on its own people would uncover the truth. He also said anyone who supported Iraq when it used chemical weapons against Iran in the 1980s had no right to criticize Syria today.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said his country, too, supported Syrian territorial integrity and, with allies Iran and Russia, hoped ultimately to find a political solution to the crisis. He said “some groups” had tried to undermine that work, and he urged all parties to contribute to the peace process instead.

Agreeing to Disagree: New Normal in Transatlantic Relations

Can the Europeans save the Iran nuclear deal? It’s an accord U.S. President Donald Trump has excoriated repeatedly and threatened to scrap.

 

Europeans were heartened midweek by indications from the U.S. leader that he’s willing to consider French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to augment an accord he considers “insane” by negotiating a side deal with Iran to address Trump’s concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile development and its expanding military presence across the Middle East.

Nonetheless, the nuclear deal signed in 2015 by the Obama administration hangs in the balance, despite the back-slapping, hand-pumping “bromance” between Macron and Trump in Washington. The two leaders continued to forge a personal entente cordiale, but as Macron highlighted in a speech to Congress, the pair is far apart on Iran and Syria, climate change and trade.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has dismissed talk of a re-negotiation, saying midweek he had warned Macron several times of Tehran’s refusal to “add anything to the deal or remove anything from it, even one sentence.”

 

The nuclear deal has no fans in the White House. Trump’s new national security adviser John Bolton has long argued in favor of scraping the deal, which he believes has thrown an economic lifeline to a regime he’d like to change. Three years ago Bolton advocated in a newspaper editorial that to stop Iran from developing a bomb, Iran would have to be bombed.

High-profile visits

And the visits in the past week to Washington by Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel inthemost high-profile European push to date to try to convince Trump to preserve the nuclear accord with Iran may not be enough to save it, say political observers.

Even Macron, on his departure from the U.S. capital, suggested he’d failed to persuade Trump to continue with the nuclear deal. “My view — I don’t know what your president will decide — is that he will get rid of this deal on his own, for domestic reasons,” he told reporters.

On Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis said no decision had yet been made by Trump.

By May 12, President Trump has to decide whether to renew sanctions relief for Iran, a key step in keeping the deal. Even if he does renew the relief this time, possibly out of respect for Macron, that will be no guarantee against him subsequently scrapping the accord. European officials admit they are skeptical of being up to conjure up a diplomatic solution that will stop him from doing so later.

If Trump does rip up the accord, where would that leave a transatlantic partnership between the U.S. and Europe that won the Cold War against the Soviet Union, and now appears to be at the onset of another one with Vladimir Putin’s Russia?

 

Will it mark the beginning of the end for a transatlantic alliance that has been roiled since Trump entered the White House?

Pessimists, among them former U.S. officials and analysts, as well as European politicians, warn that the U.S. and Europe are drifting quickly toward a fracture — and not just over Iran.

Growing divide?

A former political director of the British Foreign Office, Simon Gass, has warned that a U.S. revocation of the Iran deal will push the Europeans into the uncomfortable position of being aligned with Russia and China when it comes to Tehran. “Such a division between the U.S. and some of its closest allies would cause as much dismay in European capitals as it would glee in some others,” he said.

America and Europe’s foes have been gleeful following other recent sharp divergences between Washington and the Europeans — including over the Paris climate accord, Trump’s criticism of what he sees as low defense spending by the Europeans as a percentage of gross domestic product, the imposition of trade tariffs and the threat of a transatlantic trade war. There have been differences over policy toward Russia and China, the conflict in Syria, and abrasive tweet clashes between British and German politicians on one side and Trump over refugee policies and Islam.

Trump foes blame him for the differences and disagreements, arguing he’s driving a wedge between America and Europe and that scrapping the Iran deal will lead to a breakdown in the transatlantic alliance.

Optimists point out that America and Europe have been at serious odds before — including over Vietnam, Ronald Reagan’s hardline “evil empire” confrontation with the Soviet Union, and the Balkans war. The transatlantic alliance weathered those because ultimately, for all the disputes, American and European interests, more often than not, overlapped.

But will they in the future? Analyst Xenia Wickett says there are several factors shaping the new era in transatlantic relations. In a report she authored earlier this year for Britain’s Chatham House research group, Wickett argued Trump may cause “real and meaningful shorter-term disruptions” in transatlantic relations, but heposes “less of a long-term threat to the relationship between the U.S. and Europe” than key structural factors affecting the alliance.

“While his policies may have reverberations beyond his time in office, there is no reason to believe that the consequences are likely to be profound and long-lasting for the fundamental interests of the transatlantic relationship,” she wrote.

She cautioned, however, there will be changes in that relationship thanks to migration patterns. “The increase in Latin American and Asian groups in the U.S., and to a lesser extent, Middle Eastern populations in Europe, is likely to cause the U.S. and Europe to continue to diverge in terms of their regional interests and attention,” she said.

Inherent affinity

But for all of the sharp disagreement in recent months there are clear indications that both Washington and the Europeans value the alliance. Trump may have been more iconoclastic than many fervent Atlanticists may like — especially rhetorically — but despite his declaring NATO obsolete and accusing European allies of “ripping the U.S. off,” his administration has devoted more U.S. resources for European security, notes Jeffrey Rathke of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based policy institute.

Likewise, Trump temporarily exempted the European Union from recent tariffs imposed on aluminum and steel imports. Rathke dubs all of this a “political zig and zag,” and worries that “the United States’ alliance relationships are no longer Washington’s foreign policy lodestar, as they were for the past 70 years,” arguing that the U.S. and the EU are stronger when working together and are more vulnerable when they aren’t.

“Confrontation, just like friction, can generate heat and rancor, but it is also necessary to challenge and refine, to hone and polish,” Rathke argued in a midweek CSIS commentary. “Now is the time for the United States’ closest friends to adapt to these undiplomatic times with a more robust, and if necessary, confrontational diplomacy,” he said.

 

That more confrontational diplomacy by the Europeans was on display this week. In Macron’s case it was accompanied by a warmth — and a personal chemistry between the French and U.S. leaders that partly overshadowed their disagreements. Merkel’s much more understated visit — three hours compared to three days — was accompanied by a greater chill, but was more cordial than their previous encounters, say analysts.

But that might be the new normal in transatlantic relations, and it could well remain so after Trump leaves the White House, with allies not trying to disguise divergences or cover up disagreements, but talking openly and frankly even abrasively, maybe as only friends can do.

Trump: No Iran Nukes Even if Agreement Folds  

Standing alongside Germany’s chancellor, U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized on Friday that Iran would not be permitted to build a nuclear arsenal, even if a deal intended to prevent that scenario collapsed. 

“They’re not going to be doing nuclear weapons. You can bank on it,” Trump told reporters. 

Asked about possible actions, including use of force, that he could take if Iran restarted its nuclear weapons program, if the deal made in 2015, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was abandoned, the president replied: “I don’t talk about whether or not I’d use military force.” 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, appearing with Trump at the news conference following their Friday meetings, described the JCPOA as “anything but perfect,” adding, “It will not solve all the problems of Iran.” 

She described it as one piece to limit Iran’s bad actions, while saying Berlin considered it of “prime importance” to contain threats from Iran as it exerts geopolitical influence in Syria, which has been racked by years of civil war. 

Merkel said her government would continue very close discussions with the United States as the president neared a decision on the Iranian nuclear accord, signed by Iran with China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union.

The Trump administration is required to recertify to Congress every 90 days that Iran is complying with the deal. The next deadline is May 12. 

The U.S. president repeatedly has heaped scorn on the agreement, referring to it as a “disgrace,” “stupid” and the “worst deal ever negotiated.” 

Following a meeting Friday of foreign ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), new U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters in Brussels that “absent a substantial fix, absent overcoming the flaws of the deal,” the U.S. president “is unlikely to stay in that deal.” Earlier in the week, French President Emmanuel Macron said in Washington that he did not believe he had been able to persuade Trump not to abandon the nuclear agreement. 

Asked by journalists whether he thought the U.S. president would walk away from the pact, Macron replied, “That’s my bet.” 

Macron was seen by many as the foreign leader most likely to be able to change Trump’s mind because of the warm relationship between the two. 

Trump on Friday greeted Merkel under the West Wing entry portico with a kiss on both cheeks and a handshake in the Oval Office, more affection than during Merkel’s initial White House visit 13 months ago when he appeared to refuse to shake her hand in the Oval Office. 

Merkel’s relationship with Trump remains icy, according to The Washington Post, quoting a person who was in the room when the president was with Macron on Tuesday when Trump reportedly said he was “not looking forward to Merkel coming.”

According to Peter Rashish, senior fellow and director of the geoeconomics program at the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, “there was always going to be a division of labor between Macron and Merkel with Trump.”

Rashish, a former vice president for Europe at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, noted that while “Macron is a gifted public performer, Merkel thrives in close-range, behind-the-scenes meetings. The cordial tone of the press conference suggests she was able to find a way to engage Trump in a way that could bear fruit further down the line.”

Alongside Trump, during several events Friday at the White House when reporters were in the room, Merkel remained mostly stone-faced. But there were a couple of flashes of puzzlement during their joint news conference when Trump made off-the-cuff remarks in his trademark fashion. 

Trump and Merkel acknowledged they discussed other difficult matters, including the level of funding for NATO and trade tariffs. 

“We had an exchange of views,” she said when asked about steel tariffs Trump is poised to impose on European exports. “The decision lies with the president.” 

While Trump emphasized the need to bring down the EU trade surplus with the United States, the president also said he wanted to deepen economic ties with Europe, which observers saw as something new. 

Merkel on Friday restated her interest in a U.S.-EU free-trade agreement.

“Put those two ideas together and you could imagine down the road the resumption of some version of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with a more Trumpian stamp,” Rashish told VOA. 

Speculation Swirls Turkey Might Seek Nonalignment

The Syrian civil war has been a catalyst for Russian-Turkish rapprochement, much to the concern of Turkey’s NATO partners. This, coupled with Ankara’s current strained relations with its traditional Western allies, is raising the prospect of a nonaligned Turkey.

Foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran and Russia are meeting Saturday in Moscow under the auspices of the so-called Astana process that’s aimed at resolving the Syrian civil war.

Ahead of the meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with new U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. A myriad of differences continue to strain ties between the two NATO allies.

Speaking to reporters, Cavusoglu dismissed a threat from some U.S. lawmakers that additional measures might be taken against Turkey in light of its prosecution of U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson on terrorism charges.

Countermeasures

“I have openly told him [Pompeo] that sanctions should not be on the agenda,” he said. “These would trigger countersteps from us that would not be in our interests,” Cavusoglu said.

Washington also threatened further sanctions over Ankara’s planned purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system.

“The S-400 sale is done,” added Cavusoglu. “We can only talk about what we can do with the U.S. in the subsequent process.”

Washington has indicated sanctions could be triggered when the missiles are actually delivered to Turkey. Moscow has already announced it is working to bring forward the delivery date to next year, from the originally planned 2020.

A picture of the ​Iranian, Russian and Turkish presidents at an Ankara summit on Syria this month exemplified Western concerns of Turkey’s eastern drift.

But a top Turkish presidential adviser sought to put a different spin on the image. “To me, that photo-op underlines the strategic importance of Turkey and shows its rise in foreign policy. This is not a shift of axis,” international relations head Ayse Sozen Usluer said in an interview with the Turkish Hurriyet newspaper Friday.

In the same interview, Usluer suggested critics of Ankara’s Moscow rapprochement were trapped in the past.

“For the last 10 to 15 years in particular, Turkey has not felt the need to choose between the West and the East, or between the U.S. and Russia,” he said. “Turkey no longer sees its foreign policy within the framework of the Cold War or East versus West alliances.”

Usluer’s comments coincided with pro-government media political commentators increasingly promoting the idea of a nonaligned Turkey.

“Pro-government commentators are saying India, Egypt, even Cyprus did this before. Why can’t we do it now?” said political commentator Semih Idiz of the Al-Monitor website.

“I don’t see this as realistic,” he said. Governments’ policies “are determined by the geography they find themselves in. I don’t think Turkey is in a situation or place in the world that it can be a nonaligned country.”

Challenging proposition

Turkey borders Iran, Iraq and Syria, and for the nearly three decades, conflicts have raged along on its southern border. Analysts suggest pursuing an increasingly independent diplomatic role will be challenging.

But Turkey’s geography also gives it leverage.

“We call it balance-of-power policy, like in the 19th century. Turkey can play the mediation between the rival counties,” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “But we can never abandon our international alliances. We have always had alliances with our allies. We were never alone, back to World War II and the Crimean War of the 19th century.”

The current situation may well suit Moscow.

“For Russia, the target is not to fully disrupt U.S.-Turkish relations, but to keep this relationship weak,” said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, who served in Iraq and Washington. But given that Ankara and Moscow are on opposing sides in the Syrian civil war and remain regional rivals, Selcen suggested Turkey would have to eventually return to its Western allies.

“Anyone looking at the map, even with no knowledge of history, can come up with the conclusion, yes, Turkey should have rational relations with Moscow and Tehran,” said Selcen. “But it cannot extend beyond a certain operational or tactical basis, given the long-term contradictory goals of those powers, especially in Syria.”

At NATO Ministerial, US Officials Call for Crimea’s Return to Ukraine

A top U.S. official said Friday that NATO foreign ministers would refuse to “return to business as usual with Russia” until Moscow “withdraws forces and support for proxies in the Donbas, and returns control of Crimea to Ukraine.”

The unusually pointed demand, tweeted by State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert, coincided with newly confirmed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s arrival in Brussels for Friday’s ministerial meeting — a powerful message to send to NATO allies for his first day on the job.

“I hopped straight on a plane and came straight here,” Pompeo told the ministerial. “There’s good reason for that. The work that’s being done here today is invaluable and our objectives are important and this mission means a lot to the United States of America.”

Tweeting throughout the initial phase of the Brussels visit, Nauert reiterated those talking points, calling NATO “more relevant than any time since the Cold War,” and that today’s focus was squarely on “Russia’s continued aggression and ability to threaten, coerce, undermine and invade its neighbors.”

She also tweeted that 22 Ukrainian soldiers had been wounded in last 48 hours in eastern Ukraine, the highest number since July, adding that “Russia-led forces have intensified artillery attacks on Ukrainians defending their country. Russia must end its aggression and fully implement the Minsk agreements.”

Neal Walker, chief of the U.N. humanitarian mission to Ukraine, told VOA’s Ukrainian service that they were recording 40,000 cease-fire violations each month.

“As you can imagine, this isn’t really a cease-fire,” he said. “This is a hot conflict that has a huge impact on people’s lives.”

UN Says Enormous Humanitarian Funding Restraints in Ukraine

NATO-Russia tension

Analysts say Pompeo has good reason to hit the ground running, with increased tensions between NATO and Russia likely to top the agenda. 

Pompeo and the other NATO foreign ministers will most likely focus on how to counter Russian cyberattacks and other interference in Western democracies, as well as Moscow’s role in protecting President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

During his first year in office, U.S. President Donald Trump criticized alliance allies for not spending enough on defense, calling it unfair to taxpayers in the United States. The president, however, did reaffirm support for NATO while urging allies to pay their fair share.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and other leaders in Brussels said they appreciated Pompeo’s quick action to attend Friday’s talks.

“I feel that that’s a great expression of the importance of the alliance and the importance we attach to the alliance, and I very much look forward to talking with you, on the need to adapt NATO to a more demanding security environment,” the secretary-general told Pompeo.

As of publication time, Russia’s Foreign Ministry had not yet responded to Nauert’s tweets or Pompeo’s visit with NATO ministers.

This story originated in VOA’s Ukrainian service. VOA’s Cindy Saine contributed original reporting.

EU Moves to Further Ban Bee-Killing Pesticides

European Union countries backed a proposal Friday to extend a partial ban on the use of insecticides known as neonicotinoids that studies have shown are harmful to bees.

The full outdoor ban will be on the use of three active substances: imidacloprid, developed by Bayer CropScience; clothianidin, developed by Takeda Chemical Industries and Bayer CropScience; as well as Syngenta’s thiamethoxam.

“All outdoor uses will be banned and the neonicotinoids in question will only be allowed in permanent greenhouses where exposure of bees is not expected,” the European Commission said in a statement.\

Russia Tensions to Dominate NATO Meeting, as Ukraine Pushes to Join

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo travels to the NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Brussels Friday, a day after the U.S. Senate approved his appointment. Russia will top the agenda, as will Western accusations that Moscow poisoned a former spy in Britain. Tensions further increased following Syria’s alleged chemical weapons attack and the Western air strikes that followed. As Henry Ridgwell reports, Ukraine is pushing hard to build closer relations in line with its ambition of joining NATO.

The Store Where Everything Is Made in America

From T-shirts, socks and toys to knives and lanterns, a store in upstate New York takes pride in only selling goods that are made in America. Olga Loginova from VOA’s Russian service talked to the store owner about his business, which emerged after the 2008 financial crisis.

Consumers Close Wallets, Trim US 1st Quarter Growth

The U.S. economy likely slowed in the first quarter as growth in consumer spending braked sharply, but the setback is expected to be temporary against the backdrop of a tightening labor market and large fiscal stimulus.

Gross domestic product probably increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate, according to a Reuters survey of economists, also held back by a moderation in business spending on equipment as well as a widening of the trade deficit and decline in investment in homebuilding.

Those factors likely offset an increase in inventories. The economy grew at a 2.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter. The government will publish its snapshot of first-quarter GDP Friday at 8:30 a.m. 

Don’t lose sleep

The anticipated tepid first-quarter growth will, however, probably not be a true reflection of the economy, despite the expected weakness in consumer spending. First-quarter GDP tends to be soft because of a seasonal quirk. The labor market is near full employment and both business and consumer confidence are strong.

“I would not lose sleep over first-quarter GDP, there is the residual seasonality issue,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Overall the economy is doing very well and will continue to do well this year and into 2019.”

Economists expect growth will accelerate in the second quarter as households start to feel the impact of the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion income tax package on their paychecks. Lower corporate and individual tax rates as well as increased government spending will likely lift annual economic growth to the administration’s 3 percent target, despite the weak start to the year.

Federal Reserve officials are likely to shrug off weak first-quarter growth. The U.S. central bank raised interest rates last month in a nod to the strong labor market and economy, and forecast at least two rate hikes this year.

Minutes of the March 20-21 meeting published earlier this month showed policymakers “expected that the first-quarter softness would be transitory,” citing “residual seasonality in the data, and more generally to strong economic fundamentals.”

Consumer spending lackluster

Economists estimate that growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, braked to below a 1.5 percent rate in the first quarter. That would be the slowest pace in nearly five years and follows the fourth quarter’s robust 4.0 percent growth rate.

Consumer spending in the last quarter was likely held back by delayed tax refunds and impact of tax cuts. Rebuilding and clean-up efforts following hurricanes late last year probably pulled forward spending into the fourth quarter.

“Our new consumer survey found that 37 percent of consumers thought they didn’t get any extra income from the tax cut or did not know what to do with it,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “It is possible this means that there is a lag in the consumer response to tax cuts.”

Business spending

Business spending on equipment is forecast to have slowed after double-digit growth in the second half of 2017. The expected cooling in equipment investment partly reflects a fading boost from a recovery in commodity prices. Economists expect a marginal impact on business spending on equipment from rising interest rates and more expensive raw materials.

“While we do not expect rising rates to crush equipment spending, a slowdown nevertheless appears in store,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Higher interest rates will hurt at the margin.”

Investment in homebuilding is forecast to have declined in the first quarter after rebounding in the October-December period. Government spending probably contracted after two straight quarterly increases. Spending is, however, expected to rebound in the second quarter after the U.S. Congress recently approved more government spending.

Trade was likely a drag on GDP growth for a second straight quarter after royalties and broadcast license fees related to the Winter Olympics boosted imports.

With consumer spending slowing, inventories probably accumulated in the first quarter. Inventory investment is expected to have contributed to GDP growth after subtracting 0.53 percentage point in the fourth quarter.

Amazon Delivers Profits, a $20 Prime Hike, NFL Games

Amazon.com Inc. more than doubled its profit Thursday and predicted strong spring results as the world’s biggest online retailer raised the price for U.S. Prime subscribers, added U.S. football games and touted its cloud services for business.

The results showed the broad strength of the company, which has been expanding far beyond shipping packages, the business that has drawn the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The forecast beat expectations on Wall Street, sending shares up 7 percent to a new record in afterhours trade and adding $8 billion to the net worth of Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s chief executive and largest shareholder.

Seattle-based Amazon is winning business from older, big box rivals by delivering virtually any product to customers at a low cost, and at times faster than it takes to buy goods from a physical store. It is expanding across industries, too, striking a $130 million deal to stream Thursday night games for the U.S. National Football League online and working to ship groceries to doorsteps from Whole Foods stores nationwide.

Sales jumped 43 percent to $51.0 billion in the quarter, topping estimates of $49.8 billion, according to Thomson Reuters.

Prime now $119

Prime, Amazon’s loyalty club that includes fast shipping, video streaming and other benefits, has been key to Amazon’s strategy. Its more than 100 million members globally spend above average on Amazon.

The company announced Thursday it will increase the yearly price of Prime to $119 from $99 for U.S. members this spring.

The fee hike is expected to add a windfall to Amazon’s subscription revenue, already up 60 percent in the first quarter at $3.1 billion.

“We do feel it’s still the best deal in retail,” Brian Olsavsky, Amazon’s chief financial officer, said on a call with analysts. He said the number of items Prime members can get within two days had grown fivefold since the last price increase four years ago.

Advertising and the cloud

Despite the surge in shopping, Olsavsky gave credit for Amazon’s $1.6 billion profit last quarter to two younger businesses: advertising and Amazon Web Services.

Revenue from third-party sellers paying to promote their products on Amazon.com was an unusually large bright spot during the quarter, with sales in the category, which includes some other items, growing 139 percent to $2.03 billion. This included $560 million from an accounting change.

Amazon Web Services (AWS), which handles data and computing for large enterprises in the cloud, won new business and saw its profit margin expand. It posted a 49 percent rise in sales from a year earlier to $5.44 billion, beating estimates.

Amazon remains the biggest in the space by revenue, and its stock trades at a significant premium to cloud-computing rival Microsoft Corp.

Amazon’s shares have also outperformed the S&P 500, rising 30 percent this year as of Thursday’s market close, compared with the S&P’s less than 1 percent decline.

More workers, spending

Notorious for running on a low profit margin, Amazon has still reaped rewards for shareholders as it has bet on new services like voice-controlled computing and has expanded across continents and industries.

Global headcount was up 60 percent from a year earlier at 563,100 full-time and part-time employees, thanks to a hiring spree and an influx of workers from Whole Foods Market.

The company plans to increase its video content spending this year, Amazon’s Olsavsky said, with a prequel to “The Lord of the Rings” in the works. The third quarter will also see extra spending to prepare for the busy holiday season.

Amazon is working with JPMorgan Chase & Co and Berkshire Hathaway Inc to determine how to cut health costs for hundreds of thousands of their employees.

And it is expanding its retail footprint outside the United States, particularly in India. Amazon’s international operating loss grew 29 percent to $622 million in the first quarter.

Women Protest After Spanish Court Clears 5 of Rape Charges

Outraged Spaniards filled the streets across the country Thursday to march against what many considered to be the light punishment for five men charged with raping a teenage girl in 2016.

The three-judge court in Pamplona sentenced the defendants to nine years in prison for the crime of sexual abuse, instead of the 22 years they could have gotten if convicted of rape.

Protests against the verdict erupted in Pamplona and soon spread to other major cities, including Madrid and Barcelona.

Marchers banged on pots and chanted “No means no” and “It’s not abuse — it’s rape.”

“I am asking myself what is happening with the justice system in Spain and in the world,” a female student from Madrid told reporters. “It is mind-blowing, what is happening here. This is a clear example that the masculine laws rule.”

The five defendants, who had dubbed themselves “The Pack,” were accused of dragging the 18-year-old victim into a building in Pamplona, raping her and capturing their crime on smartphones. They were also accused of stealing the young woman’s cellphone to stop her from calling for help.

Under the Spanish criminal code, rape is classified as a violent crime, while sexual abuse means there was no violence.

The defense argued the sex was consensual; prosecutors said it was not.

In addition to prison time, the judges ordered the five men to pay the victim $61,000. Their lawyers can appeal.

Mexico Economy Minister Says NAFTA Revamp Talks ‘Not Easy’

Much remains to be done before a new North American Free Trade Agreement is reached, Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said Thursday, tempering hopes for a quick deal as ministers met in Washington for a third successive day.

Negotiators from the United States, Mexico and Canada have been working constantly for weeks to clinch a deal, but major differences remain on contentious topics such as autos content.

Complicating matters, the Trump administration has threatened to impose sanctions on Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum on May 1 if not enough progress has been made on NAFTA.

President Donald Trump, who came into office in January 2017 decrying NAFTA and other international trade deals as unfair to the United States, has repeatedly threatened to walk away from the agreement with Canada and Mexico, which took effect in 1994.

“It is going, it’s going, but not easy — too many things, too many issues to tackle,” Guajardo told reporters after a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Now under way for eight months, the talks to revamp the accord underpinning $1.2 trillion in trade entered a more intensive phase after the last formal round of negotiations ended in March with ministers vowing to push for a deal.

Lighthizer is due to visit China next week, and when asked if a deal was possible before the USTR left, Guajardo said: “It will depend on our abilities and creativity. We are trying to do our best, but there are still a lot of things pending.”

Although Washington is keen for an agreement soon to avoid clashing with a July 1 Mexican presidential election, the three NAFTA members remain locked in talks to agree on new rules governing minimum content requirements for the auto industry.

Still, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland rejected the notion that discussion of the so-called rules of origin for the automotive sector was holding up the process.

“I would very much disagree with the characterization of the autos conversation as being log-jammed,” she said as she entered the USTR offices. “This is a week when very good, significant progress is being made on rules of origin for the car sector.”

Freeland said she would skip a planned visit to a NATO summit in Brussels on Friday, and vowed to stay in Washington for “as long as it takes.” Guajardo, too, said he was ready to remain in Washington this week for more talks.

Disagreements

The three sides are also trying to settle disagreements over U.S. demands to change how trade disputes are handled, to restrict access to agricultural markets and to include a clause that would allow a country to quit NAFTA after five years.

Bosco de la Vega, head of Mexico’s National Agricultural Council, the main farm lobby, said he believed the three would be able to reach an agreement on agricultural access.

But the auto sector rules were still contentious, he added.

“It’s the most important issue there,” he said, adding that he had earmarked May 10 as the deadline for a quick deal.

Separately, Canada on Thursday unveiled details of how it plans to prevent the smuggling of cheap steel and aluminum into the North American market in a bid to avoid the U.S. tariffs.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced the plan last month, said Ottawa would hire 40 new trade officers to probe complaints, including those related to steel and aluminum.

Russia Presents Unharmed Syrians to OPCW

Russia and Syria presented several unharmed people from Gouta, Syria, at the premises of the Organization for the Prohibition for Chemical Weapons on Thursday to support claims that there was no chemical attack in the city earlier this month.

Britain dismissed the move as a stunt, and said allied powers including France and the United States had boycotted the closed-door briefing.

“The OPCW is not a theater,” said Peter Wilson, Britain’s envoy to the watchdog in a statement. “Russia’s decision to misuse it is yet another Russian attempt to undermine the OPCW’s work, and in particular the work of its Fact Finding Mission investigating chemical weapons use in Syria.”

Russia and Syria intend to hold a news conference near the OPCW premises in the Hague later. An invitation said the event would include “participation of witnesses from Syria who were used in staged videos of the ‘chemical attack’ in Douma.”

OPCW investigators are looking into whether chemical weapons were used in Gouta in the April 7 attack that killed dozens of people. They visited a second site in Gouta, an enclave outside of the Syrian capital, on Wednesday to take samples.

The attack led to air strikes by the United States, France and Britain against sites in Syria. They accused the government of President Bashar al-Assad of using chemical weapons, possibly a nerve agent. Syria and its ally Russia have denied the accusation and said rebel forces staged the attacks.

France’s Ambassador to the OPCW Philippe Lalliot called the display of Syrians in The Hague “obscene.”

“This … does not come as a surprise from the Syrian government, which has massacred and gassed its own people for the last 7 years,” he told Reuters.

He said it was more surprising coming from Russia.

“One cannot but wonder if the weaker [Syria] is not taking the stronger [Russia] on a path beyond its interests, if not its values.”

Probe of Businessman Highlights Still-Powerful French Interests in Africa

In Paris, authorities are probing allegations that the holding company of tycoon Vincent Bollore used favors to win lucrative port contracts in West Africa. Bollore presides over a massive media, logistics and transportation empire on the continent, even as France’s clout in Africa is waning.

French investigators are probing allegations that Vincent Bollore’s holding company was given lucrative port concessions in Togo and Guinea in exchange for undercharging the current leaders of both countries for advertising work during their election campaigns.

The Bollore Group has denied all wrongdoing, and said the inquiry will give 66-year-old Bollore a chance to answer what it describes as “unfounded accusations.”

France continues to be a major economic and political player in West Africa, especially in its former colonies. But its influence has declined in the face of more recent competitors like China and Turkey.

Even so, the Bollore Group remains a formidable player. Its interests include logistical operations, railways, ports, and media interests that turn over billions of dollars a year.

Interviewed on French TV, journalist Nicolas Vescovacci, who wrote a book about Bollore, describes the Bollore Group’s Africa interests as an “empire” that spans 46 countries and employs 25,000 people. Vescovacci says the businessman controls what enters into the African ports his group controls, and at least part of local economies in countries like Guinea, Togo and Ivory Coast.

Bollore also has forged ties with powerful figures in both France and in Africa. He is friends with former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, who is now being probed over alleged Libyan campaign funding for his 2007 election.

Journalist Vescovacci says Bollore has a network of relationships that range from former spies and policemen to politicians — from the left, as well as from the right.

Now Bollore’s relationship with two of them, Guinean President Alpha Conde and Togolese leader Faure Gnassingbe, is under scrutiny. French investigators are probing accusations Bollore’s advertising company Havas, now run by one of his sons, provided discounted services to both men during their election runs in exchange for port contracts.

In France, Bollore is a controversial figure. Over the years, he has launched a number of defamation suits against media investigating his group’s various business activities.

 

 

Armenia’s ‘Velvet Revolution’ Prompts Comparisons With Ukraine, Georgia

Armenia’s acting prime minister has said the country will hold new elections if all parties agree to it, prompting celebrations Wednesday on the streets of the capital, Yerevan.

Protests have been building for the last two weeks over an alleged power grab by former prime minister Serzh Sargsyan, who resigned Monday.

His acting replacement, the former deputy prime minister, Karen Karapetyan, said Wednesday all parties should negotiate new elections.

“If they decide that there is a necessity for a snap election, if they set a timeline so that they have enough time to prepare so that everyone is under the same game rules — if they decide so, we will move forward based on that,” Karapetyan told reporters.

Opponents had accused Sargsyan of clinging to power by manipulating the constitution, allowing him to move from the position of president to prime minister.

On the surface, the show of people power in this former Soviet state has striking similarities to the ouster of pro-Russian leader Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine in 2014, or Eduard Shevardnadze in Georgia in 2003. There are differences, however, argues Moscow-based political analyst Karine Gevorgyan.

“In Armenia, in particular, this situation is not linked with being oriented either to the West or to the East, like it was in Ukraine, but with being tired of inefficient, counterproductive power in government,” Gevorgyan told VOA in an interview.

No Moscow puppet

Anahit Shirinyan of the policy institute Chatham House agrees and says Sargsyan was not Moscow’s puppet.

“He was also very much acceptable for the West up until recently because he was thought to have tried to diversify Armenia’s foreign policy. He made this rather bold move toward Turkey back in 2008, with this rapprochement with Turkey, he tried to sign the Association Agreement, a cooperation treaty, with the EU back in 2013,” said Shirinyan.

Under pressure from Moscow, that EU Association Agreement failed and Armenia instead joined the Russia-focused Eurasian Economic Union. But Moscow has failed to build influence in Armenia, argues analyst Gevorgyan.

“I think it has happened because Russia itself has abandoned this political space in Armenia. Meanwhile, other countries, including the United States, as well as other Western countries, acted quite diligently and subtly to fill that space,” said Gevorgyan.

Now Armenia finds itself at a geopolitical crossroads, adds Shirinyan of Chatham House.

“It has an opportunity to get closer to the West, to the EU, because I think that particularly the EU’s support will be crucial in the next stage of reforming the country,” said Shirinyan.

Russia has offered little official response. Moscow has a military base in the country, along with historic and economic ties. Analysts say the strength of the protests likely will prompt a cautious response from all sides.

 

Facebook’s Rise in Profits, Users Shows Resilience 

Facebook Inc. shares rose Wednesday after the social network reported a surprisingly strong 63 percent rise in profit and an increase in users, with no sign that business was hurt by a scandal over the mishandling of personal data.

After easily beating Wall Street expectations, shares traded up 7.1 percent after the bell at $171, paring a month-long decline that began with Facebook’s disclosure in March that consultancy Cambridge Analytica had harvested data belonging to millions of users.

The Cambridge Analytica scandal, affecting up to 87 million users and prompting several apologies from Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg, generated calls for regulation and for users to leave the social network, but there was no indication advertisers immediately changed their spending.

“Everybody keeps talking about how bad things are for Facebook, but this earnings report to me is very positive, and reiterates that Facebook is fine, and they’ll get through this,” said Daniel Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust Company. His firm holds about 73,000 shares in Facebook.

Facebook’s quarterly profit beat analysts’ estimates, as a 49 percent jump in quarterly revenue outpaced a 39 percent rise in expenses from a year earlier. The mobile ad business grew on a push to add more video content.

Facebook said monthly active users in the first quarter rose to 2.2 billion, up 13 percent from a year earlier and matching expectations, according to Thomson Reuters.

The company reversed last quarter’s decline in the number of daily active users in the United States and Canada, saying it had 185 million users there, up from 184 million in the fourth quarter.

Resilient business model

The results are a bright spot for the world’s largest social network amid months of negative headlines about the company’s handling of personal information, its role in elections and its fueling of violence in developing countries.

Facebook, which generates revenue primarily by selling advertising personalized to its users, has demonstrated for several quarters how resilient its business model can be as long as users keep coming back to scroll through its News Feed and watch its videos.

It is spending to ensure users are not scared away by scandals. Chief Financial Officer David Wehner told analysts on a call that expenses this year would grow between 50 percent and 60 percent, up from a prior range of 45 percent to 60 percent.

Spending on security

Much of Facebook’s ramp-up in spending is for safety and security, Wehner said. The category includes efforts to root out fake accounts, scrub hate speech and take down violent videos.

Facebook said it ended the first quarter with 27,742 employees, up 48 percent from a year earlier.

“So long as profits continue to grow at a rapid rate, investors will accept that higher spending to ensure privacy is warranted,” Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said.

It has been nearly two years since Facebook shares rose 7 percent or more during a trading day. They rose 7.2 percent on April 28, 2016, the day after another first-quarter earnings report.

Net income attributable to Facebook shareholders rose in the first quarter to $4.99 billion, or $1.69 per share, from $3.06 billion, or $1.04 per share, a year earlier.

Analysts on average were expecting a profit of $1.35 per share, according to Thomson Reuters.

Total revenue was $11.97 billion, above the analyst estimate of $11.41 billion.

Some details secret

The company declined to provide some details sought by analysts. It has not shared the revenue generated by Instagram, the photo-sharing app it owns, and it declined to provide details about time spent on Facebook. Facebook also owns the popular smartphone apps Messenger and WhatsApp.

Tighter regulation could make Facebook’s ads less lucrative by reducing the kinds of data it can use to personalize and target ads to users, although Facebook’s size means it could also be well positioned to cope with regulations.

Facebook and Alphabet Inc’s Google together dominate the internet ad business worldwide. Facebook is expected to take 18 percent of global digital ad revenue this year, compared with Google’s 31 percent, according to research firm eMarketer.

The company said it was increasing the amount of money authorized to repurchase shares by an additional $9 billion. It had initially authorized repurchases up to $6 billion.

Macron, Merkel US Visits Highlight Policy Tensions With Trump

U.S President Donald Trump Tuesday praised the strength of America’s partnership with France — and the personal friendship he has developed with his French counterpart. President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Washington will be closely followed by the arrival of German Chancellor Angela Merkel later this week. And, as Henry Ridgwell reports from London, the two European leaders are lobbying hard for Trump to shift his position on trade tariffs and the Iran nuclear deal.

Kasparov: Armenia Unrest Is Political Bellwether

Former world chess champion Garry Kasparov is today one of the most renowned figures of the Russian opposition and was the organizer of the recently concluded Free Russia Forum in Vilnius. In an exclusive interview with Voice of America’s Russian service about the latest dramatic events in Yerevan, he said that the will of the people in Armenia for change was a key factor in the development of the situation in that country.

“History is not over, but there is one very important lesson we can learn from there: When people are lied to, they get tired of it; when they are ready to defend their freedom and their right to choose who will lead them, power retreats,” said Kasparov, who is half-Armenian. “The main lesson is that it’s a demonstration of the unity of the nation. When we see students, workers, priests, some in the military [participating in the protest], it makes it impossible for the authorities to suppress it by force.”

Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan resigned unexpectedly Monday after days of protests against him by opposition supporters who claimed he was clinging to power after serving the maximum 10 years as president.

Armenia’s turmoil deepened Wednesday as tens of thousands of people took to the streets after the opposition accused the ruling Republican Party of refusing to cede power following Sargsyan’s departure. Later in the day, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, the Republican Party governing partner, announced that it had quit Armenia’s ruling coalition, calling for the election of a prime minister with “the people’s confidence.”

​Domestic focus, honest elections

In a region dominated by “strongman” politics, the grass-roots demonstrations, which protest leaders have been careful not to paint as pro-Western or anti-Russian, are focused on a domestic agenda led by honest elections.

Armenia, which seceded from the Soviet Union in 1991, has, like neighboring Caucasus nations, struggled to overcome the legacy of central planning and remains dependent on Russia for aid and investment.

But Kasparov believes that prevailing conditions in Armenia are nonetheless specific to that country.

“It is a special situation there: a practically monoethnic state, three decades of war — one day sluggish, another day turning into a more acute phase,” he said. “There is the Karabakh clan [Karabakh military], and there is the Yerevan party — that is, there are many specific factors that do not apply to Russia.”

The opposition figure also noted that Russia’s powerful influence on the situation in Armenia continued. Russia, which maintains a military base in the country, has said that it is “very attentively observing what is happening in Armenia,” but ultimately considers the unrest a domestic issue.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling on political forces in Armenia to engage in dialogue and act within the law to resolve the situation. They also dismissed any parallels to events that inspired Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan revolution.

The United States responded to developments by thanking Sargsyan for his many years of service and called for a transparent democratic process to determine his successor.

Russian influence

“Armenia is effectively under the all-powerful influence of [President Vladimir] Putin’s Russia, and it is clear that the majority of enterprises are one way or another controlled by Russian oligarchs. These ties were formed over a very long time, including military ties,” Kasparov said. “Armenia, unlike Ukraine, has no borders with the West. It is trapped between Azerbaijan, Turkey; Iran, Georgia are also there; you can’t go too far [without reaching] either Turkey or Russia, if we talk about the border.”

Nevertheless, according to Kasparov, Sargsyan’s resignation is a bellwether for Russia.

“Today, the whole world is in motion. Revolutionary changes are taking place everywhere,” he said. “Many of them are negative and destructive, but it is clear that we have entered a period of change. Armenia, I think, is a bellwether, showing that attempts to preserve the situation in Russia, attempts to return to the past … all the same end with a revolutionary explosion. Armenia is simply this bellwether indicating that change is inevitable. And the question is how peaceful and nonviolent these changes will be.

“Armenia has avoided, largely due to its national peculiarity, bloodshed and violent confrontation/ The extent to which this is possible in Russia is difficult for me to say. I fear that we missed the possibility for such a peaceful, nonviolent transition in 2011-2012, and that the changes in Russia will, of course, be more volatile.”

Thus, he said, it is necessary to prepare for such changes.

“It is necessary now, it seems to me, to think about what will happen in Russia when the day comes that patience completely runs out,” Kasparov said. “Why will that happen? There are landfills that make it impossible to breathe, corruption is monstrous, a sharp deterioration in living standards, banking collapses. There are many examples in history when such a combination of factors produced this explosive combination. And what needs to be done, I think, is what we talked about at the last Free Russia Forum in Vilnius: We need to prepare for this moment in order to propose a plan of action.”

​Darker outlook for Russia

While former Soviet republics such as Armenia may see long-term political changes emerge from this week’s protests, Kasparov believes that the situation in which changes could arrive in Russia is less favorable than the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“We cannot again, as in 1991, be caught by surprise. That will be unforgivable,” he said. “Because if at that time it was unexpected — and any change then seemed good — then today Russia has no such window of opportunity. There is no such upside. There was still economic and industrial potential then, but today the situation is different. It is much worse. Russia is mired in corruption, industrial devastation and wars. And its international reputation is actually much worse than it was 27 years ago. And society does not have the potential for change, the desire to make the country better, the desire to become part of the civilized world.”

“The most important task now is to talk seriously about constitutional reform, about what Russia should look like, what will be the path of this transition,” Kasparov said. “We have our own economic, political, social and foreign policy factors, and we need to take them all into account in order to have a sufficiently well-articulated program of action that can be proposed. The person that offers a program of action — even if it is, as articulated, radical in the opinion of many — is usually the one that inspires the people to follow.”

This story originated in VOA’s Russian Service.

Merkel Expected to Press Trump on Trade, Iran Deal

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will pay a one-day working visit to the White House on Friday following a three-day state visit by French President Emmanuel Macon.

The back-to-back visits are seen a tag-team effort to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump not to abandon the Iran nuclear deal and to grant permanent exemption of the steel and aluminum tariffs to EU member countries.

While Trump and Macron’s ‘bromance’ was on full display during the French president’s visit, Trump’s relationship with Merkel is unquestionably cooler. It is widely reported that during their inaugural meeting in March 2017, Trump appeared to withhold a handshake with Merkel, and the two leaders did not speak for five months until a phone call on March 1.

“Where Emmanuel Macron is much more successful at charming President Trump, Angela Merkel doesn’t really make the charm offensive a priority and works instead on the basis of principle, common values, and shared interests,” said Eric Jones, Director of European and Eurasian Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Nile Gardiner, Director of Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at Heritage Foundation told VOA he expected Merkel to take a more confrontational and adversarial approach towards the Trump administration than her French counterpart.

“The Germans have been a lot more critical of Trump’s foreign and economic policies,” he said. “And I think Angela Merkel is likely to be adopting a harder line than Macron on certain issues, but she’ll also be keen to make an effort to save the Iran nuclear deal,” he said.

Gardiner added that “it would be interesting to see the degree to which Merkel and Macron put forth the same proposals with regard to strengthening the Iran nuclear deal.”

Indeed, Center for Strategic and International Studies Europe Program Director Heather Conley told reporters the visits by two European leaders this week will be dubbed “the save the Iran nuclear agreement trip.”

During his visit, Macron repeatedly urged Trump and U.S. Congress not to walk away from the 2015 deal the six major powers — the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China — made with Iran to curb its nuclear program in exchange for relief from international sanctions that hobbled its economy.

Trump has called the agreement crafted under the Obama administration “the worst deal ever negotiated.” He contends Iran would quickly achieve nuclear capability at the end of the 10-year agreement and often assails its current military adventures in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.

Trump again called the deal as “insane” and “ridiculous” during Macron’s visit, but gave no indication as to whether he will pull the U.S. out of the existing nuclear deal with Tehran.

Trans-Atlantic trade

Trans-Atlantic trade will be another crucial issue during Merkel’s visit. Jeff Rathke, Deputy Director of Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies emphasized that this issue is particularly crucial for Germany.

“Germany is the largest EU economy. It is a trade-driven economy,” he said. “I would highlight that the European Union is poised to retaliate if the United States does not extend the exemption on aluminum and steel tariffs, so there is a bit of a threat there of reaction.”

Rathke pointed out Germany has the same concerns as the United States regarding China’s trade practices and its economic role.

“The question is whether they can put aside the relatively less important trans-Atlantic trade disagreements and focus on addressing those much larger and longer-term issues ” he noted.

NATO, Syria

Other issues expected to be discussed during the bilateral meeting include the importance of the NATO alliance and the way forward in Syria.

Johns Hopkins University professor Erik Jones said he doesn’t think the Europeans have high expectations of changing Trump’s mind on these issues at the end of Merkel’s visit.

“If they get an extension of the waiver on US sanctions, that’s a big deliverable; if they were to get a formal commitment to extend the exemptions on steel tariffs, that would be a deliverable; if they were to get a firm commitment on a potential to restart Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) talks; that would be a deliverable as well,” he said.

But Jones said he doubts the Europeans “are bringing a big bag to carry these things home with.” He said they are going to bring “a very small folder and hope they’ve got at least something in it when they leave at the end of the day.”

ConocoPhillips Wins $2 Billion Arbitration Against Venezuela

ConocoPhillips says it won a $2 billion arbitration award against Venezuela’s state oil company over the seizure a decade ago of investments in two projects in the OPEC nation.

The award represents the equivalent of more than 20 percent of the cash-strapped Venezuelan government’s foreign currency reserves.

The Houston-based company said in a statement the ruling against PDVSA was made by an international tribunal constituted under the rules of the International Chamber of Commerce.

It said the award is final and binding and that it intends to seek financial recovery of the award to the full extent of the law.

ConocoPhillips is pursuing a separate legal against Venezuela’s government under the auspices of the World Bank’s investment dispute mechanism.

World Bank Disputes US Audit of Afghan Reconstruction Program

The World Bank has disputed U.S. government findings that billions of dollars of donor funds flowing into Afghanistan are at risk due to lack of oversight and transparency.

The project in question is called Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund, or ARTF, and is being administered by the World Bank. It is one of the largest sources of funding to Afghan government operations outside the security sector.

The U.S. has paid about $3 billion of the total $10 billion in direct assistance to Kabul since 2002, making it the largest contributor.

On Wednesday, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or SIGAR, released its audit of the project, saying that once the U.S. or any donor provides its contributions to the fund, neither the World Bank nor USAID can account for where and how the funds are being spent.

SIGAR noted in its audit report that the World Bank is unable to accurately measure ARTF sector-level performance.

“Without an accurate, reliable evaluation, the World Bank will be unable to determine the impact the roughly $10 billion in donor funding has had in improving Afghan development,” said the U.S. government watchdog.

SIGAR is tasked with auditing U.S.-funded reconstruction programs and providing recommendations for preventing waste and corruption. In its quarterly reports submitted to the U.S. Congress, the agency has been critical of the mismanagement of reconstruction funds, and it disclosed massive corruption in certain areas, including Afghanistan’s security sector.  

While the World Bank swiftly questioned the report, it welcomed the watchdog’s recommendations an opportunity to strengthen the focus on the fund’s results and accountability.

“Most of the findings, however, are somewhat anecdotal, and do not fully take into account measures taken to improve the reporting on how funds are used,” the Bank noted in a statement sent to the media on Wednesday.

The program focuses on improving and expanding access to health care and education, developing rural infrastructure, and improving farmers’ crops and incomes.

 

“We are proud of the tangible results Afghanistan has achieved with the support of ARTF for Afghans in the past 15 years and continues to deliver,” the World Bank asserted.

The United States has spent about $1 trillion overall to secure and stabilize Afghanistan. Most of the funds have been devoted to creating and training Afghan National Defense and Security Forces so they could tackle the Taliban-led insurgency.

Security has deteriorated in recent years, though, with the insurgents controlling or contesting more than 44 percent of the country.

SIGAR has routinely identified and blamed corrupt practices by Afghan security institutions and forces for battlefield setbacks.

 

Kenya Economy Seen Rebounding After Election Slowdown

Kenya’s economy is expected to rebound to 5.8 percent growth in 2018 after electoral uncertainty and drought cut last year’s expansion to the lowest level in more than five years, Finance Minister Henry Rotich said Wednesday.

The economy will benefit from increased investment in key areas like manufacturing, farming, housing and health care, he said.

President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election in November in a second vote after the first in August was annulled by the Supreme Court citing irregularities. Around 100 people, mainly opposition supporters, were killed mainly by police during the prolonged election season.

“Despite the slowdown in 2017 our outlook is bright,” Rotich said at the launch of the annual economic survey. “We expect growth to recover to 5.8 percent in 2018, and over the medium term the growth is projected to increase by more than 7 percent.”

Growth slowed to 4.9 percent last year from a revised 5.9 percent in 2016, the statistics office said.

Kenya’s diversified economy is better able to withstand shocks like the commodity price drop that started in 2014 and hit oil-producing African countries such as Nigeria and Angola.

But its economy was hobbled by a severe drought in the first quarter of last year that was followed by poor rainfall.

The services sector including tourism grew strongly last year and that helped to offset the slowdown in farming and manufacturing, said Zachary Mwangi, director general of the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Tourism is vital for hard currency and jobs and grew 14.7 percent while earnings surged 20 percent, he said.

In contrast, growth in the agriculture sector, which accounts for close to a third of overall output, slid to 1.6 percent in 2017 from 5.1 percent the year before.

The government says manufacturing is a priority due to its potential to create jobs, and it grew at 0.2 percent last year from 2.7 percent the year before.

Production of cement, sugar and processed milk slid as firms reeled from the impact of the election and high costs.

Rotich said the projected economic rebound is supported by favorable economic fundamentals including inflation, which has dropped to about 4 percent this year.

“The ongoing investments in infrastructure, improved business and factory confidence, and strong private consumption are expected to support growth,” he said.

International Watchdogs Warn of Worldwide Threats to Freedom of the Press

Incessant attacks on the media by populist politicians are posing a threat to major democracies, two international watchdogs said on Wednesday. 

In their annual reports on the state of press freedom around the world, Reporters Without Borders and Freedom House harshly criticized Western populist leaders for discrediting the media, berating journalists, and threatening to impose restrictions. 

“As recently as five years ago, global pressure on the media did not appear to affect the United States or the established democracies of Europe in any significant way,” Freedom House said in its report, “State of Global Press Freedom, 2017-2018.” “Today, populist leaders constitute a major threat to free expression in these open societies.”

Reporters Without Borders offered a strikingly similar assessment, warning that “more and more, democratically-elected leaders no longer see the media as part of democracy’s essential underpinning, but as an adversary to which they openly display their aversion.”

President Donald Trump came in for harsh criticism from both organizations. Reporters without Borders called him “a media bashing enthusiast,” while Freedom House warned that Trump’s characterization of the media as “the enemy of the American people” and his disparagement of journalists and media organizations have “‘undermined public trust in fact based journalism.”

​The White House could not be immediately reached to respond to the criticism. 

Reporters Without Borders’ annual Press Freedom Index evaluates press freedom in 180 countries on a scale of 1 to 180, with 1 being the freest and 180 the least free.

In this year’s index, Norway stole the top spot from Finland while North Korea remained at the bottom at No. 180. 

The U.S. ranked 45th , down two places, continuing a trend that started under the administration of former President Barack Obama but accelerated under Trump.The ranking puts the United States in the same camp as Belize, Italy, Romania, and South Korea.

Europe, which historically has had the freest press in the world and had eight of the freest press sectors in the world, notched the largest decline in its regional indicator. 

In France, a journalist was hustled out of a press conference last May when he asked a politician about involvement in a scandal. 

In Poland, regulators fined a leading TV station for “promoting illegal activities” through its coverage of antigovernment protests, Freedom House said. 

And in Hungary, the free press has all but vanished as businessmen associated with the ruling party have “acquired most of the last bastions of independent media,” according to Freedom House. 

“That’s what we mean when we talk about hatred of journalists coming from political leaders in non authoritarian regimes which is really concerning,” said Margaux Ewen, North America director for Reporters Without Borders.

​The “Trump Effect” rippled into countries such as Turkey, which remains the world’s biggest jailer of journalists and the Philippines where President Rodrigo Duterte has openly threatened journalists. 

In Cambodia, which fell ten places in the RSF index, the government has used Trump’s criticism to justify a major crackdown on independent media.

Sarah Repucci of Freedom House said the comparison is misleading. While the Cambodian press is highly restricted, she said, the U.S. media has vigorously pushed back against Trump’s attacks.

While every region of the world saw declines in press freedom, there were some bright spots in parts of Africa where several authoritarian leaders have left office. 

Among them: Gambia, where a new president has promised a less restrictive press law and the inclusion of freedom of expression in the country’s constitution, jumped 21 places, Africa’s biggest leap forward, according to Reporters Without Borders.

US Pecan Growers Seek to Break Out of the Pie Shell

The humble pecan is being rebranded as more than just pie.

 

Pecan growers and suppliers are hoping to sell U.S. consumers on the virtues of North America’s only native nut as a hedge against a potential trade war with China, the pecan’s largest export market.

 

The pecan industry is also trying to crack the fast-growing snack-food industry.

 

The retail value for packaged nuts, seeds and trail mix in the U.S. alone was $5.7 billion in 2012, and is forecast to rise to $7.5 billion by 2022, according to market researcher Euromonitor.

 

The Fort Worth, Texas-based American Pecan Council, formed in the wake of a new federal marketing order that allows the industry to band together and assess fees for research and promotion, is a half-century in the making, said Jim Anthony, 80, the owner of a 14,000-acre pecan farm near Granbury, Texas.

 

Anthony said that regional rivalries and turf wars across the 15-state pecan belt — stretching from the Carolinas to California — made such a union impossible until recently, when demand for pecans exploded in Asian markets.

Until 2007, most U.S. pecans were consumed domestically, according to Daniel Zedan, president of Nature’s Finest Foods, a marketing group. By 2009, China was buying about a third of the U.S. crop.

 

The pecan is the only tree nut indigenous to North America, growers say. Sixteenth-century Spanish explore Cabeza de Vaca wrote about tasting the nut during his encounters with Native American tribes in South Texas. The name is French explorers’ phonetic spelling of the native word “pakan,” meaning hard-shelled nut.

 

Facing growing competition from pecan producers in South Africa, Mexico and Australia, U.S. producers are also riding the wave of the Trump administration’s policies to promote American-made goods.

 

Most American kids grow up with peanut butter but peanuts probably originated in South America. Almonds are native to Asia and pistachios to the Middle East. The pecan council is funding academic research to show that their nuts are just as nutritious.

 

The council on Wednesday will debut a new logo: “American Pecans: The Original Supernut.”

Rodney Myers, who manages operations at Anthony’s pecan farm, credits the pecan’s growing cachet in China and elsewhere in Asia with its association to rustic Americana — “the oilfield, cowboys, the Wild West — they associate all these things with the North American nut,” he said.

 

China earlier this month released a list of American products that could face tariffs in retaliation for proposed U.S. tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. Fresh and dried nuts — including the pecan — could be slapped with a 15-percent tariff, according to the list. To counter that risk, the pecan council is using some of the $8 million in production-based assessments it’s collected since the marketing order was passed to promote the versatility of the tree nut beyond pecan pie at Thanksgiving.

 

While Chinese demand pushed up prices it also drove away American consumers. By January 2013, prices had dropped 50 percent from their peak in 2011, according to Zedan.

U.S. growers and processers were finally able in 2016 to pass a marketing order to better control pecan production and prices.

 

Authorized by the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act of 1937, federal marketing orders help producers and handlers standardize packaging, impose quality control and fund research, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which oversees 28 other fruit, vegetable and specialty marketing orders, in addition to the pecan order.

 

Critics charge that the orders interfere with the price signals of a free, unfettered private market.

 

“What you’ve created instead is a government-sanctioned cartel,” said Daren Bakst, an agricultural policy researcher at the conservative Heritage Foundation.

 

Before the almond industry passed its own federal marketing order in 1950, fewer almonds than pecans were sold, according to pecan council chair Mike Adams, who cultivates 600 acres of pecan trees near Caldwell, Texas. Now, while almonds appear in everything from cereal to milk substitutes, Adams calls the pecan “the forgotten nut.”

 

“We’re so excited to have an identity, to break out of the pie shell,” said Molly Willis, a member of the council who owns an 80-acre pecan farm in Albany, Georgia, a supplement to her husband’s family’s peanut-processing business.

Beijing Auto Show Highlights E-cars Designed for China

Volkswagen and Nissan have unveiled electric cars designed for China at a Beijing auto show that highlights the growing importance of Chinese buyers for a technology seen as a key part of the global industry’s future. 

General Motors displayed five all-electric models Wednesday including a concept Buick SUV it says can go 600 kilometers (375 miles) on one charge. Ford and other brands showed off some of the dozens of electric SUVs, sedans and other models they say are planned for China. 

Auto China 2018, the industry’s biggest sales event this year, is overshadowed by mounting trade tensions between Beijing and U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese goods including automobiles in a dispute over technology policy. 

The impact on automakers should be small, according to industry analysts, because exports amount to only a few thousand vehicles a year. Those include a GM SUV, the Envision, and Volvo Cars sedans made in China for export to the United States. 

China accounted for half of last year’s global electric car sales, boosted by subsidies and other prodding from communist leaders who want to make their country a center for the emerging technology. 

“The Chinese market is key for the international auto industry and it is key to our success,” VW CEO Herbert Diess said on Tuesday. 

Volkswagen unveiled the E20X, an SUV that is the first model for SOL, an electric brand launched by the German automaker with a Chinese partner. The E20X, promising a 300-kilometer (185-mile) range on one charge, is aimed at the Chinese market’s bargain-priced tiers, where demand is strongest. 

GM, Ford, Daimler AG’s Mercedes unit and other automakers also have announced ventures with local partners to develop models for China that deliver more range at lower prices. 

On Wednesday, Nissan Motor Co. presented its Sylphy Zero Emission, which it said can go 338 kilometers (210 miles) on a charge. The Sylphy is based on Nissan’s Leaf, a version of which is available in China but has sold poorly due to its relatively high price. 

Automakers say they expect electrics to account for 35 to over 50 percent of their China sales by 2025.

First-quarter sales of electrics and gasoline-electric hybrids rose 154 percent over a year earlier to 143,000 units, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. That compares with sales of just under 200,000 for all of last year in the United States, the No. 2 market. 

That trend has been propelled by the ruling Communist Party’s support for the technology. The party is shifting the financial burden to automakers with sales quotas that take effect next year and require them to earn credits by selling electrics or buy them from competitors. 

That increases pressure to transform electrics into a mainstream product that competes on price and features. 

Automakers also displayed dozens of gasoline-powered models from compact sedans to luxurious SUVs. Their popularity is paying for development of electrics, which aren’t expected to become profitable for most producers until sometime in the next decade. 

China’s total sales of SUVs, sedans and minivans reached 24.7 million units last year, compared with 17.2 million for the United States. 

SUVs are the industry’s cash cow. First-quarter sales rose 11.3 percent over a year earlier to 2.6 million, or almost 45 percent of total auto sales, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. 

On Wednesday, Ford displayed its Mondeo Energi plug-in hybrid, its first electric model for China, which went on sale in March. Plans call for Ford and its luxury unit, Lincoln, to release 15 new electrified vehicles by 2025. 

GM plans to launch 10 electrics or hybrids in China from through 2020. 

VW is due to launch 15 electrics and hybrids in the next two to three years as part of a 10 billion euro ($12 billion) development plan announced in November. 

Nissan says it will roll out 20 electrified models in China over the next five years. 

New but fast-growing Chinese auto trail global rivals in traditional gasoline technology but industry analysts say the top Chinese brands are catching up in electrics, a market with no entrenched leaders. 

BYD Auto, the biggest global electric brand by number sold, debuted two hybrid SUVs and an electric concept car. 

The company, which manufactures electric buses at a California factory and exports battery-powered taxis to Europe, also displayed nine other hybrid and plug-in electric models. 

Chery Automobile Co. showed a lineup that included two electric sedans, an SUV and a hatchback, all promising 250 to 400 kilometers (150 to 250 miles) on a charge. They include futuristic features such as internet-linked navigation and smartphone-style dashboard displays. 

“Our focus is not just an EV that runs. It is excellent performance,” Chery CEO Chen Anning said in an interview ahead of the show. 

Electrics are likely to play a leading role as Chery develops plans announced last year to expand to Western Europe, said Chen. He said the company has yet to decide on a timeline. 

Chery was China’s biggest auto exporter last year, selling 108,000 gasoline-powered vehicles abroad, though mostly in developing markets such as Russia and Egypt. 

“We do have a clear intention to bring an EV product as one of our initial offerings” in Europe, Chen said.