Millions of Orthodox Christians Celebrate Easter

Millions of Orthodox Christians around the world have celebrated Easter in overnight services and with “holy fire” from Jerusalem, commemorating the day followers believe that Jesus was resurrected nearly 2,000 years ago.

 

This year the Orthodox churches celebrate Easter on the same Sunday that Roman Catholics and Protestants mark the holy festival. The Western Christian church follows the Gregorian calendar, while the Eastern Orthodox uses the older Julian calendar and the two Easters are often weeks apart.

 

Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, who is the spiritual leader of the world’s Orthodox Christian faithful, delivered a message of peace during the midnight service at the Patriarchate in Istanbul.

 

“Our faith is alive, because it is based on the event of the resurrection of Christ,” Bartholomew said.

 

In his official Easter message issued earlier in the week, Bartholomew urged strong faith in the face of the world’s tribulations.

“This message — of the victory of life over death, of the triumph of the joyful light of the [Easter] candle over the darkness of disorder and dissolution — is announced to the whole world from the Ecumenical Patriarchate with the invitation to experience the unwaning light of the resurrection,” his message said.  

 

In predominantly Orthodox Romania, Patriarch Daniel urged Christians to bring joy to “orphans, the sick, the elderly the poor … and the lonely.”

 

Late Saturday, Orthodox clerics transported the holy flame from Jerusalem by plane and it was then flown to other churches around the country. According to tradition the flame appears each year at the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem and is taken to other Orthodox countries.

In Russia, where Orthodox Christianity is the dominant religion, President Vladimir Putin along with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his wife Svetlana attended midnight Mass at Moscow’s Christ the Savior Cathedral.

 

The cathedral is a potent symbol of the revival of observant Christianity in Russia after the fall of the officially atheist Soviet Union. It is a reconstruction of the cathedral that was destroyed by explosion under dictator Josef Stalin.

 

In Serbia, the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Irinej, held a liturgy in Belgrade’s St. Sava Temple which outgoing president Tomislav Nikolic attended.

 

Irinej said in his Easter message that “with great sadness and pain in our hearts, we must note that today’s world is not following the path of resurrection but the road of death and hopelessness.”  He also lamented the falling birth rate in Serbia as “a reason to cry and weep, but also an alarm.”

 

Irinej evoked Kosovo, Serbia’s former province which declared independence in 2008. Hundreds of medieval Orthodox churches and monasteries are located there.

Orthodoxy is also predominant in Bulgaria, Ukraine and Moldova.

Calendar Brings Western, Orthodox Christians Together for Easter

Christians around the world on Sunday celebrated Easter – the day they believe Jesus arose from the dead.  It is the holiest day of the Christian calendar.  

Throngs of the faithful endured heavy security checks to secure a place in the Vatican’s flower-filled Saint Peter’s Square for Pope Francis’ celebration of Easter Mass and his delivery of his annual “Urbi et Orbi” –  “to the city and to the world” – Easter address.

Pope Francis denounced how migrants, the poor and the marginalized are treated.  He said they see their “human dignity crucified” every day through injustice and corruption.

The pope asked in his prayers for peace in the Middle East “beginning with the Holy Land, as well as in Iraq and Yemen.”

He said he hopes that Jesus’ sacrifice will inspire world leaders to “sustain the efforts of all those actively engaged in bringing comfort and relief to the civil population in Syria, prey to a war that continues to sow horror and death.”

In Florida, U.S. President Donald Trump attended an Easter church service in Palm Beach, accompanied by first lady Melania Trump, daughter Tiffany and son Barron. Melania Trump’s parents also were there. The Episcopal Church of Bethesda-by-the-Sea was the site of the president and first lady’s wedding in 2005.

Easter is Christianity’s “moveable feast,” falling on a different date each year.  Western Christian churches celebrate Easter on the first Sunday following the full moon after the vernal equinox.  

This year, however, the date of the Roman Catholic and Protestant observance of Easter coincides with the Orthodox churches.  The two Easters are usually weeks apart, with the Western Christian church following the Gregorian calendar, while the Eastern Orthodox uses the older Julian calendar.

In Jerusalem, a sunrise service at the Garden Tomb, where worshippers sang hymns of the resurrection, set the biblical tone. Throughout the day, masses of different denominations of both Western and Eastern Christians coexisted in the same holy space.   

Wajeeh Nusseibeh, a Muslim man and member of one of the two families that guard and keep the Church of the Holy Sepulcher in Jerusalem, said there were fewer people visiting the holy place this year than in the past.

Nusseibeh blamed that on tough economic times and security concerns among Middle Eastern Christians, who feel under threat in Iraq and Syria. “We hope to have peace next year,” he said. “And everyone accepts the other.”

The Old City also had Jewish pilgrims celebrating the weeklong biblical holiday of Passover— the story from the biblical Exodus celebrating the ancient Israelites’ liberation from Egyptian slavery.

Reports say many of the attendees were ultra-Orthodox Jews in dark suits and hats, but they were joined by others, including members of the Israel’s Ethiopian Jewish community.

Armed Israeli police and soldiers patrolled the streets near the site of Christ’s tomb, but the atmosphere was calm.

In Egypt, however, authorities beefed up security after a suicide bomb attack on a Coptic Christian church last Sunday left dozens dead and more than 100 wounded.

Easter marks the end of Holy Week, which includes Maundy Thursday, the day of Jesus’ last supper with his disciples. Holy Week also includes Good Friday, the day Jesus was crucified.

 

In predominantly Orthodox countries such as Russia and Serbia, government and church leaders attended midnight masses and held liturgy.

Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the spiritual leader of the world’s Orthodox Christian faithful, conveyed a message of peace during midnight mass at the Patriarchate in Istanbul, Turkey.

“Our faith is alive,” he said.

“This message – of the victory of life over death, of the triumph of the joyful light of the (Easter) candle over the darkness of disorder and dissolution – is announced to the whole world from the Ecumenical Patriarchate with the invitation to experience the unwaning light of the resurrection,” he said.  

Patriarch Irinej, the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, delivered a gloomier Easter message. “With great sadness and pain in our hearts, we must note that today’s world is not following the path of resurrection but the road of death and hopelessness,” he said.

 

In Romania, another Orthodox Christian country, Patriarch Daniel asked members of the church to bring “joy to orphans, the sick, the elderly, the poor … and the lonely.”

Photo gallery: Christians around the world celebrate Easter

 

Quakeproofing Old Buildings

Traditionally built houses in old Europe are vulnerable to earthquakes, which again was demonstrated last August when a 6.2 magnitude quake devastated an area in central Italy. Italian engineers are researching ways to minimize the damage. VOA’s George Putic reports.

Employers Look to Fill Seasonal Jobs; Advocates Look to Protect Workers

You may have noticed: Much of the recent anti-immigration rhetoric in Washington most loudly comes from factions on the political right: H1B, H2B, it’s all about protecting American jobs.

But every step of the way, progressive groups — while pro-immigrant — are just as critical of foreign worker visas. Federal regulations on the books, they argue, are inherently insufficient to protect visa holders from abuse, whether through unwarranted recruitment fees, misrepresentation of job requirements, fraud or intimidation.

The issue plagues potential recruits, but also well-meaning businesses that can’t find enough Americans willing to take seasonal jobs. In Cape Cod, Massachusetts and other areas of the country whose economic models are centered on five-to-six-month tourist seasons, the work of H2B visa-holders becomes essential to business owners.

Employers worry, too

Tyler Hayes, vice president of Cape Cod Restaurants, says he is fortunate that his seasonal foreign workforce, mainly from Jamaica, has created a “family atmosphere” during his 20-year tenure with the company.

“Now, their children are coming in, working for us,” Hayes said.

But while Hayes can only point to the well-being of his own workforce, he acknowledges that at least in recent years, abuse of workers has not been inconceivable.

“There used to be these companies that would send out these big petitions,” Hayes recalled. “They bring in 100 or 200 people, get them in the country and then farm them out.”

In response, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) cracked down on abuse within the H2B system in 2015, both in order to prevent the exploitation of workers and to ensure U.S. workers’ awareness of available jobs.

Are regulations enough?

Elizabeth Mauldin, policy director at Centro de los Derechos del Migrante, Inc. (CDM) — the Center for Migrant Rights — calls those protections basic, including the right to receive a contract before entering the U.S. and protection from being charged a recruitment fee.

But many aspects of those existing regulations, she argues, are difficult to ensure, absent greater transparency in the recruitment process.

“It’s impossible to enforce a ban on charging workers fees,” Mauldin told VOA. “When workers are charged fees upfront, they are vulnerable to the same type of economic coercion across the board.” As a result, she notes, foreign workers become susceptible to wage theft and other abuses, regardless of their visa category.

Afraid to report

A 2013 report issued by CDM, whose findings were based on a survey and in-depth interviews with hundreds of H2B workers, found that 58 percent of respondents reported paying illegal recruitment fees, while 10 percent reported recruitment fraud — having paid a fee for a nonexistent job.

While there are mechanisms in place for foreign workers to report abuse, Mauldin argues that the disincentives are often too great.

“[Abusive employers] will say, at the end of the season, ‘If you pay those fees, then we will be more likely to recruit you in the future,’ or ‘If you don’t report these violations, then our recruiter will choose you again next year,’” Mauldin said.

Jane Nichols Bishop, founder and president of Peak Season Workforce, a family-run company that helps Cape Cod-area businesses secure H2B visas, says the mechanisms in place to prevent exploitation, including audits by the Department of Labor, have largely worked. But in cases where they do not, she says it’s in everyone’s interest that the infractions are reported.

“If there are abuses, we would like to see them caught,” Nichols said. “They give everyone who does this and who works at this very successfully a very bad name.”

Workers empower themselves

Despite ongoing reports of abuse nationwide, there is some hope for affected foreigners outside of federal regulations, thanks to the internet. A bilingual workers’ rights initiative, which Mauldin calls the Yelp for migrant workers, allows workers to review recruiters and share their experiences, and create a self-empowering community in the process.

 

New Kabul Coffee Shop Aims for Success in Tea-dominated Afghanistan

Steeped in centuries of seemingly impenetrable tea tradition, Afghanistan’s capital is getting a little coffee buzz.

Nargis Aziz Shahi says business has been increasing day by day since she opened iCafe a couple of weeks ago. Looking a little like a brick-walled Starbucks with a distinctively homey Afghan feel, it’s attracting a mostly youthful clientele drawn by free internet service and books to peruse over a cup or two.

“There were three key objectives that led me open the cafe: 1) to introduce coffee to Afghans who mostly don’t know coffee and its taste and benefits; 2) to provide a place for our youth to carry out social activities; and 3) to provide job opportunities for young people,” Shahi told VOA’s Afghan service.

Tea came to Afghanistan early

Afghanistan was introduced to tea early because of its location on ancient trade routes. The Chinese traded silk and tea for other commodities. Tea became part of the country’s hospitality for guests. Just about every family has its own recipe.

Today, Afghanistan is the world’s largest tea consumer, with each person consuming an average of almost 4.5 kilograms — more than 1,500 cups — per year in 2012. By comparison, the U.S. ranked 72nd at 0.4 kilograms per person.

Only the Russian Federation and Britain, with much larger populations, import more tea.

Coffee culture gets a start

Dr. Nabi Misdaq, adviser to President Ashraf Ghani, has visited iCafe. He regards coffee drinking as a new, enlightening culture in Afghanistan.

“It is a good beginning,” Misdaq said. “It is a profitable business, because many young people come here to read books and exchange ideas. I am sure that this will also lead to the opening of new shops.”

The cafe also serves as a place for young Afghans to carry out social and cultural activities. They come to iCafe to attend literary programs and poetry contests.

The female customers say there are few other places where they can get together and entertain themselves, but they maintain that they come to the shop to relax and enjoy.

“I am very happy that we have a coffee shop in Kabul,” said customer Samira Seerat. “It is a very good place for women to visit. There are in fact no appropriate places for women in Kabul, and Afghanistan as a whole, to visit, because our people believe that women cannot go to restaurants.”

New Kabul Coffee Shop Stirs Interest in Tea-Dominated Afghanistan

Steeped in centuries of traditional tea drinking, Afghanistan is getting a little coffee buzz for a change. Hikmat Sorosh has more on this popular new trend from the Afghan capital, Kabul, in this story narrated by Michael Lipin, with additional reporting by Khalil Noorzaie in Herat.

Feel Pain of Poor, Immigrants, Pope Francis Says at Easter Vigil

Pope Francis, leading the world’s Roman Catholics into Easter, urged them Saturday not to ignore the plight of immigrants, the poor and other vulnerable people.

In his homily at an Easter vigil Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica, Francis recounted the biblical account of Jesus Christ’s mother, Mary, and Mary Magdalene, filled with grief, as they went to visit his tomb following the crucifixion.

Their grief, he said during the solemn ceremony, could be seen in the faces of many women today.

“In their faces we can see reflected all those who, walking the streets of our cities, feel the pain of dire poverty, the sorrow born of exploitation and human trafficking,” he said.

“We can also see the faces of those who are greeted with contempt because they are immigrants, deprived of country, house and family. We see faces whose eyes bespeak loneliness and abandonment, because their hands are creased with wrinkles.”

Serving the needy

Francis has used the period leading up to Easter to stress his vision of service to the neediest. On Good Friday, he lamented that many people had become inured to daily scenes of bombed cities and drowning migrants.

During Saturday’s service, he baptized 11 people, most of them adult converts to Catholicism, from Italy, Spain, the Czech Republic, the United States, Albania, Malta, Malaysia and China.

On Easter Sunday, the most important day in the Christian liturgical calendar, he will read his twice-annual “Urbi et Orbi” (“To the City and the World”) message in St. Peter’s Square.

Security has been tight for all of the pope’s Holy Week activities following recent truck attacks against pedestrians in London and Stockholm.

Turkey Launches Roundup of Islamic State Suspects Ahead of Vote

Responding to threats by the Islamic State group to disrupt Turkey’s constitutional referendum on Sunday, Turkish authorities have detained scores of people nationwide suspected of links to the outlawed terror group.

IS called on its followers to attack polling places during the referendum, in which voters will make a yes-or-no choice on whether Turkey should shift from its current parliamentary system of government to an executive presidency. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration has been campaigning hard and marshaling media resources to press for a “yes” vote, which would greatly expand the president’s powers.

In a directive to its followers, IS said, “Choosing a lawmaker other than God is a curse.” The admonition was published in the latest issue of Rumiyah, an online magazine the extremists use for propaganda and recruitment.

IS issued a similar call earlier this month in its Arabic newsletter El-Naba, asking its supporters in Turkey — including “lone wolves,” those who are not part of any organized cell or group of fighters — to sabotage the referendum in any way possible. The goal is to prevent Turks from voting, Islamic State said, adding: “Use whatever means you have at hand to create ultimate chaos.”

All who take part in the referendum, whatever their political sympathies, are heretics and infidels, IS said in a rallying call to its sympathizers: “We are asking all our brothers to target all polling places. Strike those places, burn them, destroy and demolish them. Kill all those heretics and polytheists who go to vote.”

Since the IS threats were issued, Turkish police and security forces have begun operations in provinces throughout the country, rounding up those suspected of ties to IS.

Security forces detained five people in Istanbul. Turkish media reports detailed more than 20 arrests linked to Islamic State in the provinces of Istanbul, Adana, Gaziantep, Kirikkale and Mersin.

There were no official reports on the total number of those detained nationwide, but it was believed that scores of suspects were arrested. The government-funded Anatolian news agency reported that those in custody were preparing “sensational attacks” in connection with the referendum.

Prosecutors in Mersin province, on the Mediterranean coast in southern Turkey, said they had received intelligence reports warning of possible attacks on Sunday. and that a number of suspects with links to IS had been arrested. A prosecutors’ statement added: “Turkish police are still looking for three more suspects. During searches at the suspects’ homes, police also found various printed IS publications, digital materials, a hunting rifle and some ammunition.”

Since Turkey took on a larger role in the coalition campaign against Islamic State in neighboring Syria and Iraq in mid-2015, the country has been targeted by IS militants several times.

Turkey recently concluded its Operation Euphrates Shield, an eight-month campaign in Syrian border areas aimed at crushing IS operations there.

Analysis: Turkey Faces Lose-Lose Choice in Referendum

Regardless of whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan succeeds in bolstering his increasingly authoritarian clout in Sunday’s constitutional referendum, one thing is clear: despite a crackdown on his critics and the media, the country is deeply divided, with signs that the gap is growing.

That is bad, not only for Turkey, but for just about everyone with interests in the region, given the country’s economic power and historically strategic location as a bridge between East and West – particularly with Syria’s civil war and the fight against so-called Islamic State raging on its border.

Despite the government’s efforts to severely limit campaigning against the changes that could extend Erdogan’s rule for a decade or more, polls show the election too close to call. That raises the possibility of violence no matter what the final results are, particularly with last July’s military coup attempt fresh in the public’s memory.

Only a few years ago, Turkey seemed well-entrenched as a flourishing democracy and well on the way to joining the European Union. It has huge potential with Europe’s youngest population: 19 million of the 75 million people are ages 15 to 29.

Today, it stands accused of human rights abuses that have included imprisoning more than 45,000 people, among them the leaders and nine other legislators from the second-largest opposition party in parliament, for alleged links to Kurdish terrorists.

Rallies for the “No” camp are banned due to possible terrorism; coverage of its arguments is severely limited. In fact, almost any opposition to the changes proposed in the referendum carries the risk of being labeled as terrorism.

The once-vibrant media have seen their freedoms severely curtailed, with many of journalists jailed. The judiciary’s power has been eroded. Unemployment is at 10.7 percent and up to 25 percent among the young who embody the future.

A shift from America’s sphere of influence to Russia’s seems possible, and the prospects of joining the EU are stalled, if not dead.

Still, Erdogan stands poised to further enforce his will with the proposed reforms, which would change the government from a parliamentary system to what opponents describe as a dictator-like executive presidency, extend presidential power over the judiciary, allow rule by decree and create a loophole in the limit of two five-year terms for the president.

The checks-and-balances system would essentially be gone.

“Erdogan has pursued this greater responsibility despite an increasingly disastrous record of governance,” Freedom House wrote in an analysis of the election.

“For nearly four years, Turkey has been trapped in a cascade of crises – protests, terrorist attacks, crackdowns, a coup attempt, purges and war. The only blow the country hasn’t suffered is an economic crash, but that too seems imminent, as tourism and foreign investment have cratered and Erdogan has subordinated fiscal and macroeconomic management to his short-term political agenda.”

Analyst Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy was equally harsh.

“The country’s deep social chasm gives even the most ardent optimist grave cause for concern,” he said.

Others say they have never seen the country more unstable despite the president’s growing authoritarianism.

After serving as prime minister for 11 years, Erdogan was elected president in August 2014. Despite having no clear mandate – opponents received 48 percent of the vote – he began changing the political landscape quickly, leading to the coup attempt. Since quashing it, he has further consolidated power with those who would choose a near-dictatorship over uncertainty and the rise of terrorism, which has hit Turkey hard.

Crises, including an estimated 3 million refugees from Syria’s civil war, have not undercut his position as Turkey’s most popular politician, based on the early successes of his party and bolstered by his argument that only a strong leader can deal with the country’s problems.

“I have been voting for Tayyip Erdogan for 17-18 years, and he never failed me,” says retiree Ibrahim Yazka, explaining why he will vote “yes.”

“If he wants, he can just sit in the presidential mansion and sign papers; but, this man loves this country so much that he can’t stop. He believes he should do more. That’s why I believe in him.”

The European Union and Council of Europe have voiced concern over the fairness of the campaign, highlighting the fact that it is being carried out under emergency rule introduced after July’s failed coup. Armed troops are prominent in opposition strongholds, creating an air of intimidation.

“Legitimate dissent and criticism of government policy are vilified and repressed,” Council of Europe’s human rights commissioner, Nils Muiznieks, warned about the impact of emergency rule ahead of the campaign.

The friction with Europe has led to open animosity from Erdogan, who said German and Dutch leaders were using “Nazi practices” by resisting his efforts to have his deputies campaign for “yes” votes among the sizable expatriate communities living in neighboring countries.

 

On Good Friday, Pope Francis Seeks Forgiveness

Pope Francis, presiding at a Good Friday service, asked God for forgiveness for scandals in the Catholic Church and for the “shame” of humanity becoming inured to daily scenes of bombed cities and drowning migrants.

Francis presided at a traditional candlelight Via Crucis (Way of the Cross) service at Rome’s Colosseum attended by some 20,000 people and protected by heavy security following recent attacks in European cities.

Francis sat while a large wooden cross was carried in procession, stopping 14 times to mark events in the last hours of Jesus’ life from his sentencing to his death and his burial.

Similar services, known as the Stations of the Cross, were taking place in cities around the world as Christians gathered to commemorate Jesus’ death by crucifixion.

Pope speaks of shame, hope

At the end of the two-hour service, Francis read a prayer he wrote that was woven around the theme of shame and hope.

In what appeared to be a reference to the Church’s sexual abuse scandal, he spoke of “shame for all the times that we bishops, priests, brothers and nuns scandalized and wounded your body, the Church.”

The Catholic Church has been struggling for nearly two decades to put the scandal of sexual abuse of children by clergy behind it. Critics say more must be done to punish bishops who covered up abuse or were negligent in preventing it.

Violence ‘ordinary in our lives’

Francis also spoke of the shame he said should be felt over “the daily spilling of the innocent blood of women, of children, of immigrants” and for the fate of those who are persecuted because of their race, social status or religious beliefs.

At the end of this month Francis travels to Egypt, which has seen recent attacks by Islamists on minority Coptic Christians. Dozens were killed in two attacks last Sunday.

He spoke of “shame for all the scenes of devastation, destruction and drownings that have become ordinary in our lives.”

On the day he spoke, more than 2,000 migrants trying to reach Europe were plucked from the Mediterranean in a series of dramatic rescues and one person was found dead. More than 650 have died or are unaccounted for while trying to cross the sea in rubber dinghies this year.

Francis expressed the hope “that good will triumph despite its apparent defeat.”

Security increased

Security was stepped up in the area around the Colosseum after recent truck attacks against pedestrians in London and Stockholm. Some 3,000 police guarded the area and checked people as they approached. The Colosseum subway stop was closed.

Francis on Saturday is to say an Easter vigil Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica and on Easter, the most important day in the Christian liturgical calendar, he reads his twice-annual “Urbi et Orbi” (“To the City and the World”) message in St. Peter’s Square. 

Opinion Polls: Any Scenario Possible in French Election

France’s presidential race looked tighter than it has all year Friday, nine days before voting begins, as two polls put the four frontrunners within reach of a two-person run-off vote.

The latest voter surveys may raise investor concerns about the outside possibility of a second round that pits the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen against hard-left challenger Jean-Luc Melenchon.

The election is one of the most unpredictable in modern French history, as a groundswell of anti-establishment feeling and frustration at France’s economic malaise has seen a growing number of voters turn their backs on the mainstream parties.

An Ipsos-Sopra Sterna poll showed independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and Le Pen tied at 22 percent in the April 23 first round, with Melenchon and conservative Francois Fillon at 20 and 19 percent respectively.

That 3 percentage point gap separating the top four was within at least one of poll’s margin of error, suggesting the race remains wide open.

Polls have consistently shown Macron would comfortably win the second round should he qualify for the May 7 vote.

But the most striking trend in past days has been the late surge in support for Melenchon, a former Trotskyist who would pull France out of NATO and, like Le Pen, possibly the European Union, too.

In the second poll showing the top four within three points of each other, BVA pollsters said: “All scenarios are possible for April 23.”

“A second round with Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen remains the most likely hypothesis, but nothing excludes that Francois Fillon or Jean-Luc Melenchon would qualify instead,” BVA said.

Polls show that about a third of France’s 45.7 million voters might abstain. While some analysts say a higher turnout would favor Macron and Fillon, BVA said Le Pen and Melenchon could also benefit if young and working class voters cast ballots in high numbers.

Melenchon’s progress, and the possibility of a showdown between the founder of the “France Unbowed” party and Le Pen, has alarmed investors. Voter surveys show that, should he reach the second round, Melenchon could win against Fillon or Le Pen.

Le Pen would not win the presidency whoever she faced in the run-off, polls indicate.

French judges investigating her alleged misuse of EU funds to pay for party assistants have asked for her parliamentary immunity to be lifted, though her legal woes have not been as harmful to her in the polls as the allegations of nepotism that have plagued Fillon’s campaign.

A third poll published Friday showed a six-point gap splitting the four main players in a first-round field of 11 candidates. The daily survey by Opinionway had Macron as leader at 23 percent and Melenchon the laggard at 17.

Will Robots Replace Human Drivers, Doctors and Other Workers?

The impact of automation on U.S. jobs is open to debate. Robots have displaced millions of manufacturing workers, and automation is getting cheaper and more common, raising concerns it will eventually supplant far more workers in the services sector of the economy, which includes everything from truck driving to banking. 

University of Virginia Darden School of Business Professor Ed Hess says we are just starting to see automation’s impact. “It is going to be broad and it is going to be deep,” he said, adding that “tens of millions” of jobs could be at risk.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show 5 million U.S. manufacturing jobs have disappeared already.

While some politicians blame trade for the job losses, most economists say automation is mainly to blame as robots do routine factory tasks previously done by humans. 

Hess calls self-driving cars and trucks a threat to millions of human jobs, and says fast-food workers are also vulnerable, as companies install electronic kiosks to take restaurant orders. McDonalds says displaced workers will be reassigned to other tasks.

The professor says research shows nearly half of U.S. jobs could be automated, including retail store clerks, doctors who scan X-rays for disease, administrative workers, legal staffers, and middle managers.

Future of jobs

Starting more than a century ago, advancing technology changed the United States from an agrarian to a manufacturing economy. Displaced farm hands eventually found factory work, but the transition took years. This new transition may also take a time because, Hess says, “We’re not going to anywhere produce the number of jobs that we automate.”

But 50 years of experience in banking shows that while automation may change the industry, it does not necessarily end jobs for humans. 

The first Automatic Teller Machines, or ATMs, were installed 50 years ago, and there are now 420,000 in the United States. International Monetary Fund analysis shows the number of human tellers did not drop, but rose slightly.

“Humans were doing mostly service and routine types of tasks that could be converted into more automated tasks,” Tremont Capital Group’s Sam Ditzion said. But “the humans then became far more valuable in customer service and in sales in these branches.”

In a Skype interview, Ditzion said that while automation can be “scary,” the oversight of ATMs created new kinds of work for “tens of thousands of people.”

Automation grows

A report by Redwood Software and the Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) says surging investment and falling prices will help robotics grow.

Redwood’s software handles business processes that are repetitive, rule-bound and tedious.

CEBR Economist David Whitaker says as growing fleets of robots take over mundane tasks, higher productivity could bring higher wages for some human workers. He says people who want to stay employed must hone skills that robots can’t handle, such as unpredictable work or the need for an emotional human connection.

One example, according to Alex Bentley of Blue Prism software, is a program that helps law firms examine visa applications. The robot enters data but gets help from a human partner with problems such as missing information. Bentley says some human jobs have been lost, but in other cases displaced workers move within the firm to new work, particularly jobs that are “customer-centric.”

U.S. Senator Chris Coons says Germany and other nations use training programs to help their citizens get and keep jobs in a changing economy. The Democrat says America’s competitors invest six times what the U.S. does in skills development and workforce training, while Washington has slashed funding for such programs. Coons and a Republican colleague, Senator Thom Tillis, are seeking more help for schools, companies, workers and government agencies operating programs to upgrade the workforce.

New opportunities

While workers need to make some changes, philosopher and professor Ed Freeman of UVA’s Darden School of Business says companies also need to rethink their basic purpose. He says businesses must do more than just maximize value for shareholders.

“I need red blood cells to live,” he said. “It doesn’t follow that the purpose of my life is to make red blood cells. Companies need profits to live, it doesn’t follow that the purpose of a company is to make profits. We have to think through this idea about what purpose is in business.”

Freeman says he is “optimistic” because many jobs, such as creating applications for smartphones that would have been unimaginable a few years ago, are creating thousands of opportunities. He is also encouraged by his many students who, he says, bring new ideas, passion and energy to the task of starting businesses that will create new kinds of jobs.

Freeman is convinced that the problem isn’t the tsunami of lost jobs, it is the lack of “really good ideas” for creating a safety net for people who will lose jobs to automation.

Many experts worry about growing levels of automation — particularly advanced forms known as artificial intelligence — hurting employment for U.S. workers.

But U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says it will be “50 or 100 years” before artificial intelligence takes American jobs. In an interview with Mike Allen of AXIOS, Mnuchin said, “I think we are so far away from that, [it is] not even on my radar screen.”

Will Robots Take More Jobs From Humans?

Robots have displaced millions of manufacturing workers, and automation is getting cheaper, more capable, and far more common in the much-larger services sector. This area includes everything from truck driving to banking and has far more jobs than factories had. VOA’S Jim Randle reports that one expert says “tens of millions” of jobs could be at risk, but others say the picture is more complex, and less grim.

No US Trading Partners Manipulate Currency, Trump Administration says

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration declined to name any major trading partner as a currency manipulator in a highly anticipated report on Friday, backing away from a key Trump campaign promise to slap such a label on China.

The semi-annual U.S. Treasury currency report did, however, keep China on a currency “monitoring list” despite a lower global current account surplus, citing China’s unusually large, bilateral trade surplus with the United States.

Five other trading partners who were on last October’s monitoring list – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany and Switzerland – also remain on the list, ensuring that the Treasury would apply extra scrutiny to their foreign exchange and economic policies.

The Treasury report recognized what many analysts have said over the past year, namely that China has recently intervened in foreign exchange markets to prop up the value of its yuan currency, not push it lower to make Chinese exports cheaper.

Foreign exchange experts told Reuters last week that a manipulator label was unlikely for Beijing.

Trump, who on the campaign trail blamed China for “stealing” U.S. jobs and prosperity by cheapening its currency, repeatedly promised to label the country as a currency manipulator on “day one” of a Trump administration – a move that would require special negotiations and could lead to punitive duties and other action.

The report did call out China’s past efforts to hold down the yuan’s value, saying this created a long-term “distortion” in the global trading system that “imposed significant and long-lasting hardship on American workers and companies.”

The Treasury also warned that it will scrutinize China’s trade and currency practices very closely and called for faster opening of China’s economy to U.S. goods and services and a shift away from exports to more domestic consumption.

“China will need to demonstrate that its lack of intervention to resist appreciation over the last three years represents a durable policy shift by letting the RMB (yuan) rise with market forces once appreciation pressures resume,” the report said.

The report shows the Trump administration is taking an approach to foreign exchange based on data rather than politics, said Nathan Sheets, a former U.S. Treasury under secretary for international affairs during the Obama administration.

“This isn’t the report that Donald Trump had in mind on Nov. 8,” said Sheets, who is now with the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “But it lays out legitimate complaints. It’s a clear statement to the Chinese that they need progress.”

The Treasury did not alter its three major thresholds for identifying currency manipulation put in place last year by the Obama administration: a bilateral trade surplus with the United States of $20 billion or more; a global current account surplus of more than 3 percent of gross domestic product, and persistent foreign exchange purchases equal to 2 percent of GDP over 12 months.

No countries were determined to have met all three of these criteria, but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany and Switzerland all met two of them.

The Treasury warned Japan against resuming currency interventions, saying that these “should be reserved only to very exceptional circumstances with appropriate prior consultations, consistent with Japan’s G-7 and G-20 commitments.”

Russia’s Assertive Policy in Syria, Afghanistan Clashing with US

Russia on Friday hosted a trilateral foreign ministers meeting with Iran and Syria, as well as an international conference on Afghanistan, just days after a chilly Moscow reception for U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy in Syria and Afghanistan is clashing with U.S. goals, but analysts say both countries are needed for a negotiated peace. VOA’s Daniel Schearf reports from Moscow.

Russia’s Policy in Syria, Afghanistan Clashing with US

Multi-nation talks on the prospects for Afghan security and national reconciliation, the third such round since December, began Friday in Moscow.

Eleven countries are taking part in discussions, including Afghanistan, China, Iran, Pakistan and India. Former Soviet Central Asian states have been invited to attend for the first time.

The United States was also invited to the Moscow talks but Washington didn’t attend, saying it was not informed of the agenda beforehand and was unclear of the meeting’s motives.

Just days after U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s frosty reception by the Kremlin, which refused to stop support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the two countries are also at odds on how to fight the Islamic State group in Afghanistan.

Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy in Syria and Afghanistan is clashing with U.S. goals, but analysts say both countries are needed for a negotiated peace.

“I think it’s clear to, even to [the] Trump administration, that without cooperation and collaboration of Russia, it’s impossible to move forward or to achieve any meaningful result — be it on Syria or be it in Afghanistan,” Victor Mizin, of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, told VOA.

But others have stressed that this collaboration is possible even if the U.S. and Russia remain firm on some of their respective positions.

“There is certainly always room for cooperation both in Syria and Afghanistan,” Dmitry Verkhoturov, of the Center on Modern Afghanistan Research, told VOA. “But from my viewpoint, the key factor of this cooperation is that both sides, Russia and the U.S., should mutually recognize the right for an independent opinion, independent position, and an independent policy.”

Charles Kupchan, former senior director for European Affairs on the staff of the National Security Council in the Obama administration, says the Trump White House is still finding it’s footing in regard to Russian relations.

“I don’t think that there is a single point of view in the White House — in fact, one senses they are still finding their way through the woods. And whether it is on Russia or Syria or Arab-Israeli issues, different days bring different policy statements,” he told VOA’s Russian Service. “On the Russia account, I do think there has been a sobering up, in the sense that as a candidate and as an early president, I think [President Donald] Trump had a somewhat naive view about how easy it would be to reset the relationship with Russia. That he felt he could go in there as a businessman and sit down shoulder-to-shoulder with President [Vladimir] Putin and resolve everything.”

Having spent three years as a special assistant to the former U.S. president, Kupchan said stabilizing Russian ties is a notoriously difficult undertaking.

“Having worked with Russians on Ukraine and other issues, it’s tough going, and I think what the Trump administration is finding is simply that: It’s tough to find common ground with the Kremlin, and that the road ahead is likely to be one of differences of opinion rather than a reset that leads to a lasting rapprochement.”

Thursday, the U.S. dropped its largest non-nuclear bomb on a reported Islamic State militant complex in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar.

Misha Gutkin of VOA’s Russian Service contributed to this report.

India’s Most Ambitious Tax Reform Set to Roll Out July 1

More than a decade after it was proposed, India’s most ambitious tax reform measure is set to roll out in six weeks following the passage of a law that will replace a plethora of confusing levies with a single, nationwide tax.  

The new goods and services tax (GST) will unite the world’s fastest growing economy into a common market of 1.3 billion people.

The measure is seen as a major achievement for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who struggled for two years to build a political consensus.

 The government says the GST will be implemented from July 1 after state legislatures ratify it.   

 The new tax is expected to make it vastly easier to do business as it dismantles tax checkpoints at every state border. Businesses have often complained that India’s complicated tax system leaves them grappling with a mesh of separate duties levied by each of the country’s 29 states, and goods are often stranded for hours or even days at state borders as payments are worked out.

 By making distribution more efficient and less expensive, Ankur Bisen at New Delhi based consultancy, Technopak, sees big benefits for consumer-oriented businesses, which have to move goods across state lines in the vast country. 

Another huge benefit will be increased transparency. “It will have implications on corruption because taxation regime will not be vague anymore, it will be very clearly defined,” says Bisen.

For the government, the GST is expected to improve tax compliance and draw more people into the tax net in a country where tax evasion is common. It will also make India more attractive for foreign investors by simplifying rules for a huge and increasingly attractive market.

The government estimates the new tax will boost economic growth by about half a percentage point in its first year of implementation and in the long run by as much as 2 percent.

However several economists say that the political compromises that had to be struck win approval of the new tax mean the sweeping benefits India had hoped to see may not accrue in the short run.  

Taxes will be levied at four levels – five, 12, 18 and 28 percent. Many say the 18 percent and 28 percent tax rates are too high.  

 “It could potentially have been a transformative measure if the structure of GST would have been characterized by a large base and low and single rate,” says D.K. Srivastava at consultancy Ernst and Young. But, he says, “it is going as a multiple-rate system and some of the rates are very high and the tax base is still narrow. Therefore it is a kind of a fragmented GST. ”

Despite the shortfalls, Srivastava says that “given the complications of the size of the Indian economy, it might be useful to start off with a functioning model and then go on reforming it as matters progress.”

Many also warn against a hasty implementation, saying that rushing ahead with a July 1 deadline could make it difficult to handle the transition in a country which has always struggled with bureaucratic ineptitude.

Many businesses, which had long clamored for such a tax, are asking the government for more time to prepare for the switch, saying six weeks is too little. They worry that the tax rates for various products have still be to be decided.

Others point out that the GST will be serviced by state-of-the-art technology and an electronic portal where taxpayers can register, eliminating the conventional and discretionary role of tax authorities.

Turkey Ponders Re-evaluating, Suspending All Migrant Deals with EU

Turkey says it may re-evaluate or suspend all migrant agreements with the European Union if it does not receive a positive response from the bloc on visa-free travel for Turks.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said during an interview with broadcaster A Haber Friday the migrant deal and visa liberalization were a package, and therefore it was Turkey’s right to re-evaluate or suspend those if one element was not fulfilled.

Cavusoglu also said Turkey had no issues with Russia at present and would strengthen cooperation on a cease-fire and political solution in Syria, after a chemical attack blamed on Syrian government forces killed about 100 civilians in rebel-held Idlib province.

The attack prompted the United States to launch dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles from U.S. Navy destroyers in the Mediterranean on a Syrian air base.

The strike, the first direct U.S. action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and President Donald Trump’s biggest military decision since taking office, marked a dramatic escalation in U.S. involvement in Syria’s six-year war.

 

Seasonal Businesses Scramble to Stay Afloat Without Foreign Workers

Along northeastern Cape Cod off the coast of Massachusetts, April doesn’t usually equate with sunshine and sandcastles. The month is mostly a time of waiting for the fog and chill to lift off the Atlantic Ocean and the tourists to arrive.

But this year is a problem for seasonal businesses, whose model is built around five-to-six-month, low-skilled jobs in areas like hospitality. Few Americans are willing to fill them and now, thousands of foreign seasonal workers may not be allowed into the U.S. to take them.

Changes to the U.S. temporary work visa program, called H2B, are keeping out the workers that businesses count on.

For affected businesses, the financial loss could be plenty.

“It could be 20 percent,” said Allen Sylvester, president of American Tent & Table, Inc., a family-owned tent rental and party accessory business in Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Sylvester, who has been with the company since 1996, says it earns roughly 85 to 90 percent of its profits in five months — the region’s outdoor wedding season. Fully staffed, the company employs seven to eight Americans and 13 H2B visa workers.

Normally it’s the former group Sylvester has a hard time hiring. But last September, Congress failed to renew a provision that effectively quadrupled the number of H2B visas available in 2016 by not counting returnees against the annual cap. This year, instead of potentially 264,000 visas, there are 66,000 — half allocated in the spring, the other half in the fall.

Businesses in colder areas like Cape Cod, which typically have later start dates, find themselves at a loss. By the time many could complete their visa applications, the cap had been reached.

“Instead of bringing 3,000 workers here, we right now are bringing 300 workers,” said Jane Nichols Bishop, president of Peak Season Workforce, a family-owned business that helps local companies secure annual H2B visas.

Bishop, who calls herself “Mama Visa,” says the 90-day application process that businesses must follow to gain seasonal employment is stringent, including evidence of advertising to recruit American workers.

Of the 171 applications she personally filed for clients, Bishop says 24 made their way through the Department of Homeland Security before all the visas were gone.

Why not hire more Americans?

At 3.4 percent, the February unemployment rate in Massachusetts is lower than the current national average, 4.5 percent, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But as Falmouth, Massachusetts, resident Paul Skudder said, the numbers don’t paint the whole picture on Cape Cod, a community with a growing number of retirees and decreasing number of youth.

“There is a limited number of job opportunities on the Cape for college-educated professional or near professional people, which overall leads to a little bit of an exodus of bright, educated young people,” Skudder said.

Eligible job seekers who are willing to accept low-skilled employment, generally need a permanent source of income. And students can offer just three months of labor during their summer breaks, not five or six.

The well-being of the younger population is also a factor. In 2015, Cape Cod suffered the highest per capita death rate by opioid overdose in Massachusetts and remains one of the most affected areas in the country.

“A lot of the kids I used to know have now passed away,” said Prince Wright, who attended high school in Falmouth. “That’s the big problem right now … most of our locals are not coming in no more. Either they’re locked up or they moved away because of the changes on the Cape.”

More effort needed?

But along Main Street in the Cape’s largest town, not all are convinced that businesses are trying their best to hire local.

“It’s good for the [foreigners] that are coming over here on work visas, but it also takes away from the people that are living on the streets that can work,” said Mary Richard. “I just think it’s hard on the people here too.”

Politicians are divided on the H2B visa program, seeing it as either economically exploitative or a job-killer for Americans.

Republicans, who control both chambers of Congress, send mixed messages. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, the country’s top law enforcement official, has called the H2B program “detrimental to wages and job opportunities of American workers.” But Donald Trump, before he was president, employed H2B workers during peak resort season at his Florida golf club, Mar-a-Lago.

H2B-reliant businesses worry that the visa is unfairly lumped into Trump’s hard-line stance on immigration. And in Bishop’s mind, some legislators simply don’t understand seasonal economies.

“When people come to Cape Cod and the islands, they come to see and visit us. It’s full employment, we are busy, there’s traffic, so they don’t even realize there is a labor shortage,” Bishop said. “But when you come here in January, you may be the only car on the road for quite a while.”

Hiring strategy

Jim Underdah, general manager at the Coonamessett Inn, considers himself one of the lucky few to secure his share of foreign seasonal workers from Jamaica. Still, a backlog in the system has delayed their arrival and forced him to repurpose the limited workforce he retains year-round.

In anticipation of this, Underdah says many businesses like his choose to employ workers full-time even during the offseason, when he doesn’t need them.

“I have people in the kitchen that we work 40 hours for the winter, so they’re not going to leave me,” Underdah said. “They’re gonna say, ‘Hey, they’re treating us good.’ They’re going to be here this spring. They’re going to get me through till hopefully the workers get in.”

Paul Dean, who runs a seafood retail and catering business, was not as lucky. Lacking the workforce he needs to keep his multiple operations running, he says he may be forced to close one of his locations a couple days a week.

Like Sylvester, Dean predicts this would amount to a loss of 20 percent of annual income.

“That means I’m buying 20 percent less product from local vendors,” Dean said. “We’re obviously collecting 20 percent less in meals tax toward the state. We’re not paying payroll taxes … there’s a huge trickle-down effect.”

Dean and Sylvester are crossing their fingers for a last-ditch effort by lawmakers to reinstate an H2B returning worker exemption before April 28, as part of its fiscal year 2017 federal spending bill. But in case that doesn’t happen, Sylvester offers last-resort advice for summer tourists.

“If you’re going to stay over, bring your sheets and some towels,” he joked, “because there’s going to be no one to clean your room.”

WATCH: One Business Owner Talks about the Challenges

Russia Urged to End Torture, Killing of Gays in Chechnya

International organizations are demanding Russia investigate the abduction, detention and killing of gay and bisexual men in the country’s southern republic of Chechnya.

United Nations human rights experts on Thursday called on Russian authorities to “put an end to the persecution of people perceived to be gay or bisexual in the Chechen Republic who are living in a climate of fear fueled by homophobic speeches by local authorities.”

“It is crucial that reports of abductions, unlawful detentions, torture, beatings and killings of men perceived to be gay or bisexual are investigated thoroughly,” they added.

The appeals follow reports in the respected Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta that police in the predominantly Muslim republic of Chechnya have rounded up more than 100 men suspected of homosexuality and that at least three of them have been killed.

Chechen authorities have denied the reports, while a spokesman for leader Ramzan Kadyrov insisted there were no gay people in Chechnya.

“Nobody can detain or harass anyone who is simply not present in the republic,” Alvi Karimov told the Interfax news agency. “If such people existed in Chechnya, law enforcement would not have to worry about them since their own relatives would have sent them to where they could never return.”

Separately, the director of the human rights office at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Michael Georg Link, said Thursday that Moscow must “urgently investigate the alleged disappearance, torture and other ill-treatment” of gay men in Chechnya.

Novaya Gazeta also reported this month that Chechen authorities are running secret prisons, branded “concentration camps,” in the town of Argun where men suspected of being gay are kept and tortured.

After two separatist wars in the 1990s, predominantly Muslim Chechnya became increasingly conservative under late President Akhmat Kadyrov and then his son Ramzan.

US Wary of Russian Role in Afghanistan as Moscow Holds Talks

As the United States and Russia clash on Syria, another war-torn nation could play out as a renewed theater for the U.S.-Russia rivalry: Afghanistan.

Thursday, U.S. forces dropped what was being called the largest non-nuclear bomb on a reported Islamic State militant complex in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar.

The U.S. strike came a day before Russia is to host multi-nation talks on prospects for Afghan security and national reconciliation, the third such round since December.

Eleven countries are set to take part in Friday’s discussions in Moscow, including Afghanistan, China, Iran, Pakistan and India. Former Soviet Central Asian states have been invited to attend for the first time.

The Afghan Taliban said Thursday that they would not take part.

“We cannot call these negotiations [in Moscow] as a dialogue for the restoration of peace in Afghanistan,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told VOA. “This meeting stems from political agendas of the countries who are organizing it. This has really nothing to do with us, nor do we support it.”

The spokesman reiterated insurgents’ traditional stance that U.S.-led foreign troops would have to leave Afghanistan before any conflict resolution talks could be initiated.

The United States was also invited to the Moscow talks, but Washington declined, saying it had not been informed of the agenda beforehand and was unclear about the meeting’s motives.

Undermining NATO

American military officials suspect Russia’s so-called Afghan peace diplomacy is aimed at undermining NATO and have accused Moscow of arming the Taliban.

“I think it is fair to assume they may be providing some sort of support to [the Taliban], in terms of weapons or other things that may be there,” U.S. Central Command Chief General Joseph Votel told members of the House Armed Services Committee in March. He said he thought Russia was “attempting to be an influential party in this part of the world.”

For its part, Moscow has denied that it is supporting the Afghan Taliban.

“These fabrications are designed, as we have repeatedly underlined, to justify the failure of the U.S. military and politicians in the Afghan campaign.There is no other explanation,” said Zamir Kabulov, the Kremlin’s special envoy to Afghanistan.

In a separate statement Thursday, the Taliban also denied receiving military aid from Russia, though the group defended “political understanding” with Afghanistan’s neighbors and regional countries.

Anna Borshchevskaya of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said reports of Moscow supporting the Taliban were not new.

“The official Russian position on the Taliban is that they see it as a group that could help fight ISIS, but this is something that even some Taliban spokesmen have denied, since ISIS and the Taliban reached an understanding about a year ago,” Borshchevskaya said.

Putin’s motive

She said that if the allegations of Russian support for the Taliban were true, Russian President Vladimir Putin was most likely motivated by his desire to undermine the West.

“Certainly one motivation could be taking advantage of regional chaos, and to assert Russia’s influence at the expense of the U.S., taking advantage of a U.S. retreat from the Middle East and elsewhere and [to] undermine NATO and the U.S.” Borshchevskaya said, “This has been Putin’s pattern.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has made few public statements on Afghanistan, and his administration is still weighing whether to deploy more American troops to try to reverse the course of the war.

Thursday’s strike in Nangarhar marked a major step by the Trump administration in Afghanistan, in which there has been a U.S. military presence since 2001.

During a March 31 NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reaffirmed U.S. support for the alliance’s mission in Afghanistan.

“NATO’s work in Afghanistan remains critical. The United States is committed to the Resolute Support Mission and to our support for Afghan forces,” Tillerson said.

Some 13,000 NATO troops, including 8,400 Americans, are part of the support mission, tasked with training Afghanistan’s 300,000-member national security and defense forces.

Michael Kugelman, South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center, said he expected continuity in U.S. policy toward Afghanistan between the Obama and Trump administrations.

“The statement made by Tillerson at a recent NATO meeting could well have been uttered by an Obama official,” Kugelman said. “The focus on training, advising and assisting and the call for reconciliation mirror exactly the Obama administration’s priorities.”

More troops

But the South Asia analyst noted one important policy difference: U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan.

“Obama was an anti-war president who was never comfortable keeping large numbers of troops in Afghanistan. Trump is unlikely to be as constrained,” Kugelman said.

“Look for Trump to send in several thousand more troops,” he said. “This is a request that the generals in Afghanistan have made for years, and Trump is more likely to defer to the U.S. military’s wishes on this than Obama was.”

As for Russian involvement in Afghanistan following the former Soviet Union’s occupation of the South Asian country from 1979 to 1989, Kugelman said that even if Russia were engaging the Taliban to undercut U.S. influence,  the two nations ultimately hope for the same outcome in Afghanistan.

“The ironic thing is that Washington and Moscow both want the same endgame in Afghanistan — an end to the war, preferably through a reconciliation process — but they simply can’t get on the same page about how to proceed,” Kugelman said.

Trump, Yellen May Not Be an Odd Couple After All

At first glance, U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen may have little in common.

Yellen is an academic economist and veteran of Democratic administrations who is committed to an open global economy, while Trump is a real estate mogul with an electoral base suspicious of the economic order Yellen helped to create.

Yet the two may have interests in common now that Trump is president and both want to get as many Americans working as possible.

Since her appointment as Fed chair in February 2014, Yellen has kept interest rates low and she currently pledges to raise them only slowly even though unemployment, at 4.5 percent, is at its lowest in nearly 10 years.

Meanwhile, Trump’s election campaign promises to cut taxes, spend money on infrastructure and deregulate banking, have helped propel a surge in the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index to its highest level since the internet stocks crash 16 years ago.

Former Fed staff and colleagues who know Yellen said Trump’s surprising remarks this week in a Wall Street Journal interview, in which he did not rule out Yellen’s reappointment to a new four-year term next year, are not as outlandish as they may appear now that the president has a vested interest in keeping markets and the economy on an even keel.

And the same staff and colleagues say Yellen may well accept reappointment, despite Trump’s criticism of her during last year’s election campaign.

Many in Trump’s Republican party have called for tighter monetary policy and a less activist Fed, but “the president would not really find that useful,” said former Fed vice chair Donald Kohn.

If Trump fills three existing Federal Reserve board vacancies with people Yellen thinks she could work with, “it would be really difficult to turn down” a reappointment when her term as chair expires in February 2018.

“If she continues to do well, he’d be nuts to ditch her for an unknown quantity,” said University of California, Berkeley, economics professor Andrew Rose, a long-time colleague and co-author with Yellen of an oft-cited study of labor markets.

Yellen took over from Ben Bernanke as Fed chair in February 2014 with the U.S. economic recovery from the 2008 financial crisis still on shaky ground, and she has made no secret she puts a priority on growth in jobs and wages and a broad recovery in U.S. household wealth.

In a slow return to more normal monetary policy, Yellen has stopped the purchase of additional financial securities by the Fed and in December 2015 began raising short term interest rates for the first time in 10 years.

So far those policy shifts have been engineered with little apparent impact on job growth, and so mesh with Trump’s core election campaign promises to restore employment and earnings.

The slow rise in interest rates in the past year has also happened while U.S. stock prices have risen to record highs, though Trump has claimed the credit for himself.

Precedent for Fed Chair to Stay On

There is precedent for Trump to stick with a former president’s Fed chair appointment. Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, the three previous Fed chairs, served at least two four-year terms and were nominated by both Democratic and Republican presidents.

However it may be a more difficult step for Trump.

During last year’s election campaign, Trump accused Yellen of accepting orders from then President Obama to keep interest rates low for political reasons, and he said he would replace her as Fed chair because she is not a Republican party member.

In a particularly biting moment last year, in a campaign video advertisement, he labeled her as among the “global special interests” who had ruined life for middle America.

 

The Fed on Thursday said it had no response to Trump’s comments published on Wednesday on Yellen and or on whether Yellen would consider a second term.

Much Could Still Go Wrong

Some of Trump’s advisers and some Republican lawmakers want a more conservative Fed in which the chair has less power and would see a Yellen reappointment as yet another step away from his promise to “drain the swamp” of the Washington establishment.

There are also three current vacancies on the Fed’s seven member Board of Governors, and unorthodox new members could make it difficult for Yellen to manage policy or accept another four-year term.

But if the choice is her consensus style or someone unproven in their ability to manage public and market expectations, “he’d be wise to reappoint her,” said Joseph Gagnon, a former Fed staffer and Berkeley colleague of Yellen’s currently at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“I don’t see what is in his interests to appoint someone who is going to jack up interest rates.”

Polish Leader Welcomes NATO Troops, Hails ‘Historic Moment’

Polish leaders welcomed a new multinational NATO battalion to Poland on Thursday, with the president calling it “a historic moment for my country.”

 

The near-permanent deployment of a NATO battalion under U.S. command marks the first time NATO troops have been placed so close to Russian territory, a step the Kremlin denounces as a threat to its own security.

 

But Polish President Andrzej Duda said the deployment, to Poles, stands as a symbol of liberation and inclusion in the Western democratic world.

 

“It’s not an exaggeration to say that generations of Poles have waited for this moment since the end of the Second World War,” Duda said in the northeastern town of Orzysz as he addressed the troops and the U.S. and British ambassadors.

 

The battalion of about 1,000 troops is led by the United States, but includes troops from Britain and Romania. Croatian troops are expected to join later.

 

Their base of operations, Orzysz, is 60 kilometers (37 miles) from the border with Kaliningrad, a Russian territory on the Baltic Sea separated from the Russian mainland.

 

While NATO has held exercises in the region in past years, the deployment marks the alliance’s first continuous troop presence in the area that was considered by defense experts as vulnerable.

 

Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz said the NATO presence guarantees the security of NATO’s eastern flank.

 

The NATO deployment is separate from a U.S. battalion of 3,500 troops that arrived in Poland earlier this year and which is headquartered in southwestern Poland, near the German border.

 

Both missions are responses to calls for greater U.S. and NATO protection by a region fearful after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and its support for a rebel insurgency in eastern Ukraine.

Tesla Set to Unveil Electric Semi-truck in September

Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the company plans to unveil an electric semi-truck in September.

 

Musk tweeted the announcement Thursday. He offered no other details about the semi, such as whether it will be equipped with Tesla’s partially self-driving Autopilot mode.

 

Musk also said the company plans to unveil a pickup truck in 18 to 24 months.

 

Tesla currently sells two electric vehicles, the Model S sedan and Model X SUV. Its lower-cost Model 3 electric car is due out by the end of this year.

 

But Musk revealed last summer that the Palo Alto, California-based company is working on several more vehicles, including the semi and a minibus.

 

Tesla shares rose nearly 3 percent in late trading Thursday in response to Musk’s tweet.

Chile’s President Bachelet Presents Bill to Boost Pensions

Chilean President Michelle Bachelet announced on Wednesday evening that she was sending to Congress a bill that would dramatically increase the size of

public pensions in the face of growing opposition to the nation’s current system.

The bill would include an increase in the amount of savings held collectively, a new 5 percent payroll tax, and a corresponding boost in retirement savings. Current pensioners would see savings rise by around 20 percent, while workers currently paying into the system would see increases of up to 50

percent.

“We must advance toward a truly mixed social security system, where all play their part, where solidarity comes from personal effort, where the state and employers play their corresponding role,” Bachelet said in a speech.

Chile’s privatized pension plan was started in the 1980s during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, and the so-called ‘Chilean model’ has been copied and adopted worldwide.

But opposition to it is rising in Chile, with regular street protests demanding changes. Opponents say the payouts are meager, and they complain the pensions are managed by for-profit funds.

It is unclear if Bachelet’s bill can become law. Her governing coalition is severely divided, and parliamentary elections are set to take place in November, while debate on complex bills can take years in Chile.

Earlier in April, Chile’s finance minister said divisions in the government might make any pension reform impossible, and earlier this week, a major education bill pushed by Bachelet failed in committee.

Under the system proposed by Bachelet, the new 5 percent tax would be divided into two parts and have a six-year implementation period. Three percent would go into the personal savings of each worker, while 2 percent would go into a collective account, managed by the state.

The bill would also give pensioners more say in the investment decisions of the pension investment funds, known as AFPs.

In Win for Boeing and GE, Trump Says He Wants to Revive Export-Import Bank

President Donald Trump plans to revive the hobbled Export-Import Bank of the United States, his office said, a victory for American manufacturers like Boeing and General Electric which have overseas customers that use the agency’s government-backed loans to purchase their products.

Trump first told the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday he would fill two vacancies on the agency’s five-member board that have prevented the bank from having a quorum and being able to act on loans over $10 million. Trump’s picks must gain approval from the Senate, which blocked nominees by former President Barack Obama.

Trump told the Journal that the bank benefits small businesses and creates jobs, a reversal of his earlier criticism of the bank being “featherbedding” for wealthy corporations.

Bank offers loans to foreign entities

The Export-Import Bank, an independent government agency, provides loans to foreign entities that enables them to purchase American-made goods. For example, it has been used by foreign airlines to purchase planes from Boeing and farmers in developing nations to acquire equipment.

The bank’s acting chairman, Charles “CJ” Hall, was not immediately available for comment.

The bank has become a popular target for conservatives, who have worked in Congress to kill the bank, arguing that it perpetuates cronyism and does little to create American jobs.

Trump’s about-face on the export bank comes after meeting on Tuesday with former Boeing Chief Executive Officer Jim McNerney, who left the company last year but oversaw the corporation’s aggressive lobbying effort in support of the bank in 2015.

Trump also met at the White House on Feb. 23 with GE CEO Jeff Immelt and Caterpillar Inc CEO Mark Sutton, both vocal supporters of the bank.

It is not known if they discussed the bank at those meetings.

Bank helps level playing field

Large American corporations that do significant amounts of exports say other countries have similar agencies and the export bank levels the playing field.

“This is an encouraging development on a key competitive issue for U.S manufacturers and their extensive supply chains,” Boeing spokeswoman Kate Bernard said in statement to Reuters.

 

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers, which includes companies like Ingersoll-Rand, United States Steel and Pfizer, cheered the move.

“Manufacturers are encouraged by President Trump’s vocal support for the bank,” said NAM Vice President of International Economic Affairs Linda Dempsey in a statement.

A 2015 fight to shutter the bank led by conservatives in Congress allowed the bank’s charter to expire for five months.

After overwhelming bipartisan support emerged to renew the bank’s charter, which is needed for it to operate, conservatives blocked nominees to the board, preventing it from financing large exports like aircraft and power turbines.

Groups work to shut down bank

Freedom Partners and Americans for Prosperity, two groups funded by the Republican donor Koch brothers, worked aggressively for years to kill the bank. Brothers Charles and David Koch have opposed the bank for what they call damaging interference into the free market by government.

Nathan Nascimento, Freedom Partners vice president of policy, called the bank on Wednesday “the epitome of what’s wrong with Washington.”

“Reopening the flood gates to Ex-Im’s corporate welfare is a bad deal for hardworking taxpayers and a bad deal for American businesses,” he said.

The Club for Growth, which spends heavily in electing conservative candidates and was one of the few groups to campaign against Trump during the Republican primary in 2016, also lamented the change in position.

“Ex-Im has a long history of cronyism and corruption that is well-known to many in the Trump Administration, and while we hoped it would be done away with, the administration now has taken on the almost impossible challenge of reforming a federal agency whose mission has been to pick winners and losers with taxpayer dollars,” spokesman Doug Sachtleben said in a statement to Reuters.

 

French Presidential Race Tightens Further, Markets Nervous

Polls showed France’s presidential election campaign tightening further on Wednesday as financial markets fretted about the rising popularity of a far-left candidate who wants to put France’s European Union membership to a vote.

Investors have long been anxious about election frontrunner Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, who has promised a referendum on whether to quit the EU and ditch the euro.

She has been joined on the list of investors’ concerns by far-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has surged in the polls after strong performances in two candidates’ debates.

The Communist-backed Melenchon also wants a referendum on EU membership after an attempt to renegotiate the EU treaties.

Fillon stable in poll

The latest Ifop-Fiducial poll on Wednesday showed Le Pen winning 23.5 percent in the April 23 first round, one point ahead of centrist Emmanuel Macron.

Both Le Pen and Macron’s support dipped by half a point from Tuesday while conservative Francois Fillon was stable on 19 percent and Melenchon unchanged on 18.5 percent.

The top two candidates go through to a run-off on May 7, where polls say Macron would easily beat Le Pen.

Traders cited the French election, as well as U.S. relations with Syria and North Korea, as reasons why investors switched to safe assets, such as gold or U.S. Treasuries, on Wednesday.

“Risk sentiment is not strong at the moment because of tensions in North Korea and also risk of a … rising Melenchon,” said Nomura currency strategist Yujiro Goto in London.

German foray

Concern about a Le Pen victory, which would put further pressure on the EU after Britain’s decision to leave the bloc, led to an unusual foray into French politics by Germany, France’s traditional partner at the heart of the EU.

“We need a pro-European France,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in Berlin.

“I hope Le Pen does not become French president,” he added.

Outgoing Socialist President Francois Hollande is also concerned about Melenchon’s rising popularity, according to Le Monde newspaper, and this has fed speculation he could endorse Macron as the best hope to win rather than official Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon, who is doing poorly in the polls.

Hollande won’t offer support yet 

In an interview with Le Point magazine published on Wednesday, Hollande kept silent about his choice, saying he would endorse a candidate before the second round of the election.

But he spoke highly of the decision by Macron, a former economy minister in his government, to launch a new party, saying “I think politics needs renewal” and he spoke out against demagoguery.

“There is a danger in simplifications and falsifications which make people look at the … speaker rather than the content of what he is saying,” he said.

Hollande, an unpopular president who did not seek a second term, said ruling parties should not hold primary elections in future, because it was impossible to be president and candidate at the same time.

‘The French Chavez’

The conservative Le Figaro newspaper called Melenchon “the French Chavez,” alleging in a front-page story that his plans were inspired by the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez.

Melenchon mocked his new notoriety in a blog on his website.

“They announce that my winning the election would bring nuclear winter, a plague of frogs, Red Army tanks and the landing of the Venezuelans,” he said.

Bill Would Permit Use of Livestock as Loan Security in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwean entrepreneurs could soon use movable assets, including livestock and vehicles, to secure loans from banks, according to a bill brought before the country’s Parliament this week.

The southern African country’s economy is dominated by informal business following the formal sector’s contraction by as much as 50 percent between 2000 and 2008, according to government data, after President Robert Mugabe’s seizure of white-owned farms decimated the key agriculture sector.

The Movable Property Security Interest Bill, introduced Tuesday by Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa, seeks to make it easier for Zimbabwe’s burgeoning informal sector to access bank funds.

A copy of the bill seen Wednesday by Reuters defines movable property as “any tangible or intangible property other than immovable property.”

New economic reality

Presenting the bill, which still has to go through several stages before becoming law, Chinamasa said the majority of small businesses did not have the immovable assets that banks require as collateral for loans.

“The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Act will be amended to achieve the objective of this bill, and the assets to be considered include any type, such as machinery, motor vehicles, livestock and accounts receivable,” Chinamasa told lawmakers.

The finance minister said banks had failed to adjust to Zimbabwe’s new economic reality, in which the informal sector, mostly made up of small businesses, plays a dominant role.

Loans to small businesses amounted to $250 million in the year to date, Chinamasa said, out of total bank loans of nearly $4 billion.

“As minister in charge of financial institutions, I feel there is need for a change of attitude by our banks to reflect our economic realities,” Chinamasa said.

The bill provides for a collateral registry to be set up by the central bank, which would maintain a database of all movable assets put up as loan security.

“The purpose of the registry is to facilitate commerce, industry and other socioeconomic activities by enabling individuals and businesses to utilize their movable property as collateral for credit,” reads part of the bill.

Pitching the proposed law to legislators, Chinamasa cited several developing economies — including those of Liberia, Ghana, Malawi, Kenya, Lesotho, Peru and Ukraine — that he said used movable assets as collateral to increase lending to small businesses.

“Their access to banking finance increased by 8 percent [on average], while interest rates declined by 3 percent per annum,” he said.

Foreign currencies

Zimbabwe’s economy enjoyed a temporary reprieve after it adopted the use of multiple foreign currencies — mainly the U.S dollar and South Africa’s rand — in 2009 to replace its inflation-ravaged local unit.

The currency move initially paid dividends, with the economy expanding by an average 11.3 percent between 2010 and 2012, according to World Bank data, while inflation came down to single digits.

However, declining exports from the mineral-dependent country following weaker mineral commodity prices coincided with a sharp rise in imports, triggering an acute foreign currency shortage and slowing down the economy as credit to businesses dried up.

China Won’t Be Labeled a Currency Manipulator, Trump Says

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that his administration would not label China a currency manipulator, backing away from a  campaign promise, even as he said the U.S. dollar was “getting too strong” and would eventually hurt the economy.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump also said he would like to see U.S. interest rates stay low, another comment at odds with what he had often said during the election campaign.

A U.S. Treasury spokesman confirmed that the Treasury Department’s semiannual report on currency practices of major trading partners, due out this week, would not name China a currency manipulator.

The U.S. dollar fell broadly on Trump’s comments on both the strong dollar and interest rates, while U.S. Treasury yields fell on the interest rate comments, and Wall Street stocks slipped.

Trump’s comments broke with a long-standing practice of both U.S. Democratic and Republican administrations of refraining from commenting on policy set by the independent Federal Reserve. It is also highly unusual for a president to address the dollar’s value, which is a subject usually left to the Treasury secretary.

 

A day-one promise

“They’re not currency manipulators,” Trump told the Journal about China. The statement was an about-face from Trump’s election campaign promises to slap that label on Beijing on the first day of his administration as part of his plan to reduce Chinese imports into the United States.

The Journal paraphrased Trump as saying that he’d changed his mind on the currency issue because China has not been manipulating its yuan for months and because taking the step now could jeopardize his talks with Beijing on confronting the threat from North Korea.

Separately Wednesday, at a joint news conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Trump said the United States was prepared to tackle the crisis surrounding North Korea without China if necessary.

The United States last branded China a currency manipulator in 1994. Under U.S. law, labeling a country as a currency manipulator can trigger an investigation and negotiations on tariffs and trade.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement that Trump’s decision to break his campaign promise on China was “symptomatic of a lack of real, tough action on trade” against Beijing.

“The best way to get China to cooperate with North Korea is to be tough on them with trade, which is the number one thing China’s government cares about,” Schumer said.

Yellen’s future

Trump also told the Journal that he respected Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and said she was “not toast” when her current term ends in 2018.

That was also a turnaround from his frequent criticism of Yellen during his campaign, when he said she was keeping interest rates too low.

At other times, however, Trump had said that low rates were good because higher rates would strengthen the dollar and hurt American exports and manufacturers.

“I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that’s my fault because people have confidence in me. But that’s hurting — that will hurt ultimately,” Trump said Wednesday.

“It’s very, very hard to compete when you have a strong dollar and other countries are devaluing their currency,” Trump told the Journal.

The dollar fell broadly Trump’s comments on the strong dollar and on his preference for low interest rates. It fell more than 1.0 percent against the yen, sinking below 110 yen for the first time since mid-November.

“It’s hard to talk down your currency unless you’re going to talk down your interest rates, and so obviously he’s trying to get Janet Yellen to play ball with him,” said Robert Smith, president and chief investment officer at Sage Advisory Services in Texas.

Trump’s comments on the Fed were his most explicit about the U.S. central bank since he took office in January, and they suggested a lower likelihood that he plans to try to push monetary policy in some unorthodox new direction.

Fed overhaul

Some key Republicans have advocated an overhaul of how the Fed works, using a rules-based policy that would most likely mean higher interest rates, not the lower ones Trump said he prefers.

The Fed in mid-March hiked interest rates for the second time in three months, increasing its target overnight rate by a quarter of a percentage point.

“Maybe he’s learning on the job,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago, noting that with Trump’s transition from candidate to president he was now being counseled by more orthodox voices sensitive to what is needed to keep global bond markets on an even keel.

The president is also “very close” to naming a vice chair for banking regulation and filling another open seat that governs community banking on the Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said during the interview.

Turkey’s Referendum: Millions of Voters With Myriad Views

There are only two options on the ballot – “yes” or “no” – but tens of millions of Turks will cast their votes in a referendum on Sunday with a myriad of motives.

The referendum could bring about the biggest change to Turkey’s system of governance since the founding of the modern republic almost a century ago, replacing its parliamentary system with an executive presidency.

The question on the ballot paper may be about the constitution, but looming large is the figure of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who could win sweeping powers and stay in office until 2029 if the changes are approved.

Polls show a close race, with a slight lead for “yes.” But the vote may yield surprises.

‘I want a democracy’

“I’m a patriot,” said Cengiz Topcu, 57, a fisherman in Rize on the Black Sea coast, Erdogan’s ancestral home town where his supporters are among the most fervent.

But Topcu is voting “no.”

“In the past, Erdogan was a good man but then he changed for the worse. I want a democracy: not the rule of one man,” he told Reuters in his boat.

The proposed changes, Erdogan and his supporters say, will make Turkey stronger at a time when the country faces security threats from both Islamist and Kurdish militants.

Violence has flared in the largely Kurdish southeast since the collapse of a cease-fire between the state and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in 2015, and parts of the region have long been strongholds of opposition to Erdogan.

But Hikmet Gunduz, 52, a street vendor in the main regional city of Diyarbakir, hopes his “yes” vote will help bring peace.

“I like President Erdogan’s character. He is a bit angry and a bit authoritarian but his heart is full of love.”

Freedoms

Erdogan, arguably modern Turkey’s most popular but divisive politician, has long cast himself as the champion of ordinary, pious Turks exploited by a secular elite.

Although a majority Muslim country, Turkey is officially secular and the headscarf was long banned in the civil service and in universities until Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party overturned that restriction.

Aynur Sullu, a 49-year-old hotel owner in the Aegean coastal city of Izmir, a bastion of the secularist opposition, said she planned to vote “yes,” dismissing suggestions that Erdogan’s Islamist ideals were encroaching on people’s private lives.

“Anyone can drink raki or swim with a bikini freely,” she said, referring to the alcoholic drink favored by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the modern secular republic. “Also, now women with headscarves have freedom.”

Businesswoman Dilsat Gulsevim Arinc, however, said Erdogan was acting like a sultan and hoped her “no” vote would help teach him a “useful lesson”.

“He is too authoritarian,” said the 68-year-old cafe owner in Cesme, an Aegean resort town. “If things go on like this, I think Turkey will be finished in the next 10 years.”