Iceland Heads to Coalition Talks after Inconclusive Vote

Iceland’s ruling Independence Party took the largest share of the vote in the island nation’s parliamentary election but faces difficult negotiations to form a new government after populist candidates showed unexpected strength.

 

A record eight parties won seats in Saturday’s vote as the 2008 global financial crisis continues to roil the island’s politics.

 

Despite topping the poll, the Independence Party saw its support dip to 25 percent. The three-party governing coalition lost a total of 12 seats, leaving it 11 seats shy of a majority in parliament, known as the Althingi. The opposition Left Green Movement finished second with 17 percent, despite predictions it could win the election.

 

“Everyone lost,” said political analyst Gunnar Smari Egilsson said. “The current opposition gained no seats while the ruling coalition lost 12 seats. Populists alone triumphed.”

 

The upstart Center Party and People’s Party both exceeded expectations, winning 11 percent and 7 percent of the vote, respectively, with promises to work for the average Icelander. That proved appealing at a time when many working-class people feel they’ve been left behind by the island’s tourism boom.

 

Iceland became a poster-child for the global financial meltdown in 2008, when its debt-laden banks collapsed. That triggered political as well as economic chaos on this North Atlantic island of 330,000 people, with around 40 percent of the sitting members of parliament losing their seats in each election since the crisis. The current government, which had been in power only a year, collapsed in September amid allegations that the prime minister’s father backed an effort to help the job prospects of a convicted pedophile.

 

Voters took to social media Sunday to lament the country’s third government in four years — though some joked that the position of prime minister was probably the most unstable job in the gig economy.

 

Tourism has bolstered Iceland’s economy in recent years, largely because of the publicity surrounding the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano. While ash spewed into the air by the eruption initially stranded millions of travelers worldwide, tourists later flocked to the island to see its pristine glaciers, fjords and the Northern Lights.

 

Despite that growth, many Icelanders fear the financial crisis is not yet over. On social media, debate centered on those still struggling after the “hrunid,” or the collapse.

 

Egilsson — the former editor-in-chief of Frettabladid, Iceland’s largest daily — said left-wing parties missed an opportunity this weekend to defeat the “most unpopular government in history.”

 

“The left focused on middle-class politics, which did not resonate with the vast number of people excluded from the current economic boom,” Egilsson said.

 

The populists promised change and cash.

 

The People’s Party, founded by Inga Saeland, a former contestant on “The X Factor,” capitalized on anger and frustration over corruption. Although she has been criticized for Islamophobic statements and critical remarks about refugees, Saeland sidestepped immigration questions during the campaign.

 

The Center Party, meanwhile, promised to give a windfall to “every Icelander” by distributing shares in government-owned banks to the public.

 

That put the party over the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats in the Althingi, even though party founder Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson was ousted as prime minister only last year after documents leaked as part of the Panama Papers showed his wife held an account in an offshore tax haven.

 

On election night, spirits were high among Center Party supporters who gathered in Reykjavik, the capital. The predominantly middle-aged men attending the celebration reflected the party’s electoral base.

 

Tour guide Magnus Kjartansson said he voted for Center because he supported Gunnlaugsson and believes the media has smeared the former prime minister.

 

“He is going to solve issues the rest of them are not brave enough to tackle,” he said.

 

 

For Spanish, Catalan Economies, No Winners in Standoff

Xavier Gabriel can take some credit if the tiny Catalan mountain town of Sort is one of the most famous in Spain.

He runs a lottery shop called La Bruja de Oro, or The Golden Witch, in a town whose name, aptly, means “Luck” in Catalan. Its fortune in having sold many prize-winning tickets has made it a household name and a successful online business.

But the crisis surrounding Catalonia’s push for independence has changed life for 60-year-old Gabriel. He joined more than 1,500 companies in moving their official headquarters out of the wealthy region in recent weeks. Their main fear: that they would no longer be covered by Spanish and European Union laws if Catalonia manages to break away, dragging their businesses into unknown territory.

“The time had come to make a decision,” said Gabriel, who employs 16 people and describes himself as a proud Catalan.

​Hedging their bets

Like Gabriel’s, the vast majority of companies that moved their headquarters didn’t transfer workers or assets, such as bank holdings or production equipment. So far, it’s mainly a form of legal insurance. But as the political crisis escalates, the risk is that companies are deferring investments and hiring. There is evidence that tourists are holding off booking, perhaps frightened by images in the media of police crackdowns, street demonstrations and strikes.

And the situation risks getting worse before it improves: the central government’s decision Friday to take control of the region could spiral out of control if there is popular resistance, whether by citizens or local authorities like the Catalan police force.

“There is absolutely no doubt that the crisis is having a very damaging effect on the economy,” said Javier Diaz Gimenez, an economics professor at Spain’s prestigious IESE Business School.

Financial markets in Spain have so far fallen only modestly, reflecting investors’ apparent belief that the tensions will eventually be resolved. The Spanish government has called a regional election in Catalonia for Dec. 21 and could later consider revisions to the constitution that might placate some of the independence supporters.

But that could take some time, Diaz Gimenez says, given how confrontational both sides have been.

Banks leave

The list of businesses moving headquarters includes Catalonia’s top two banks, Caixabank and Sabadell, which are among Spain’s top five lenders. Then there is the Codorniu cava sparkling wine maker for which Catalonia is famous. Another well-known cava maker, Freixenet, is also planning to follow if the independence drive continues. Publishing giant Planeta, the world’s leading Spanish-language publisher and second biggest publisher in France, has also moved its official address out of Catalonia.

Caixabank says it suffered a moderate but temporary run on deposits because of the crisis, but said it has since recovered and was adamant the move was permanent.

Shares for Caixabank, Sabadell and some other companies have been volatile, falling after the Oct. 1 vote for independence and jumping sharply when they announced their decision to move headquarters.

Tip of the iceberg

Lottery shop owner Gabriel says ticket sales this month are up nearly 300 percent over last year, a rise he attributed to popular support for his decision to move his business.

Diaz Gimenez said the decisions to move headquarters, while not immediately affecting jobs, were “just the tip of the iceberg.”

“Plans to relocate firms or invest elsewhere are going to accelerate and some of it is going to go to, say, Poland, and it’s never going to come back,” he said.

“People that were thinking about investing in Spain and Barcelona are starting to think again,” he said. “It’s not just Catalonia. It’s the mismanagement by Spain, which is proving that it’s not a serious country because it cannot solve this thing.”

Spanish economy humming

The turmoil, ironically, comes just as Spain has been enjoying some of the fastest economic growth in Europe.

Its economy, the fourth-largest in the 19-country eurozone, grew by a hefty quarterly rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter. The government has maintained its forecast for growth in 2017 at 3.1 percent, but revised its estimate for 2018 from 2.6 percent to 2.3 percent because of the political crisis. Moody’s credit rating agency has warned that a continued political impasse and, ultimately, independence for Catalonia would severely hurt the country’s credit rating.

Billions at stake

Tourism seems to be taking the biggest hit so far.

Experts say spending in the sector in Catalonia in the first two weeks of October — that is, following the independence referendum — was down 15 percent from a year earlier.

Tourism represents about 11 percent of Spain’s 1.1-trillion euro ($1.3 trillion) gross domestic product, with Catalonia and its capital, Barcelona, providing a fifth of that, being the most popular destinations for visitors.

Exceltur, a nonprofit group formed by the 25 leading Spanish tourist groups, expects growth in tourism this year to ease from an estimated 4.1 percent to 3.1 percent.

Reservations in Barcelona alone are down 20 percent compared with last year, it said. If the trend continues in the final three months of the year, it could lead to losses of up to 1.2 billion euros ($1.41 billion) in the sector, which in turn could affect jobs.

Analysts fear that the independence movement’s stated aim of continuing to create as much social and economic chaos for Spain as possible could exacerbate the situation. The Catalan National Assembly group has been openly talking about a boycott against Spain’s top companies and major strike activity.

“Spain, its tourism, everything is very dependent on image,” Diaz Gimenez said. “And this is just killing it.”

Iceland’s Political Landscape Changing

The political landscape of Iceland has changed, according to preliminary results from Saturday’s election.

The Independence Party, which has won almost every election since independence from Denmark in 1944, is losing its center-right grip thanks to two scandals. Stepping in to that void are left-leaning parties.

Part of the current ruling coalition, the Independence Party, won 26 percent of the vote, down 3 percentage points from last year.

The main opposition Left Green Movement came in second with 17 percent of the vote.

The newly formed Center Party of former Prime Minister David Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson was third with 11 percent of the ballots. Gunnlaugsson was forced out of office last year when his name was found in the Panama Papers scandal that exposed worldwide tax evasion networks.

Katrin Jakobsdottir, leader of the Left Green Movement, told Reuters she is not ruling out working with the new Center Party. 

“Nothing is out of the picture, but our first choice is to work with the parties on the left,” she said. “We’d hoped that the opposition would get a majority, but that is unclear now.”

Talks to form a ruling coalition government are expected to last for several months.

Current Iceland Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson, a member of the Independence Party, called the election last month after a member of the three-party center-right coalition resigned over a controversy about granting clemency to a child molester.

The clemency scandal coupled with the Panama Papers scandal led to the collapse of the government, prompting the second snap parliamentary election in a year.

Iceland has recovered spectacularly from the 2008 financial crisis, which forced the country into near bankruptcy. But the scandals have fueled anger and distrust among voters, who are increasingly concerned about inequality and immigration threatening one of the world’s most homogeneous countries.

Iceland’s 63-member parliament is one of the oldest in the world.

On Climate Change, It’s Trump vs. Markets

At the 2015 Paris summit, world leaders pledged to take steps to avoid catastrophic climate change. This November in Bonn, Germany, U.N. negotiators will be back, working out the details of how to cut emissions of planet-warming gases. It is the first conference since President Donald Trump said the United States would withdraw from the agreement. That leaves questions about the direction of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. As VOA’s Steve Baragona reports, the answer is not straightforward.

Artisans in Mali Hope to Bring Back an Ancient Fabric Style

Artisans in Mali are hoping that Bogolan, a traditional cotton fabric, will continue to fascinate Western fashion designers and provide jobs at home. VOA’s Teffera Girma Teffera and Bagassi Koura visited a small neighborhood in central Bamako where artisans are hard at work. Salem Solomon narrates.

Retailers Offer New Tools to Help Shoppers Find Clothes That Fit

Stores watching Amazon take a larger share of clothing sales are trying to solve one of the most vexing issues for online shoppers: finding items that fit properly.

The retailers are unleashing tools that use artificial intelligence to replicate the help a salesperson at a store might offer, calculate a shopper’s most likely body shape, or use 3-D models for a virtual fitting room experience. Amazon, which some analysts say will surpass Macy’s this year as the largest U.S. clothing seller, is offering some customers an Alexa-powered device that doubles as a selfie-stick machine and a stylist.

Retailers want to reduce the rate of online returns, which can be up to 40 percent, and thus make customers happier — and more likely to be repeat shoppers. And the more interaction shoppers have with a brand, the more the technology will learn about shoppers’ preferences, said Vicky Zadeh, chief executive of Rakuten Fits Me, a tech company that works with QVC and clothing startup brands.

 

“It’s all about confidence,” she said. “If they have the confidence to buy, they will come back to the retailer time and time again.”

The push is coming from big names like Levi’s and The Gap and startups like Rhone and Taylrd.

Levi’s new Virtual Stylist texts back and forth with online customers to offer recommendations, based on their preferences. Marc Rosen, Levi’s president of global e-commerce, said early tests show the chatbot is driving more browsers to become buyers.

Reliance on body shape

Rakuten Fits Me, which works with QVC and other companies, fine-tuned its fitting technology this summer and said its retail partners now offer garments that should fit shoppers’ body shapes when the customer first does the initial search. Shoppers provide three measurements — height, weight and age — and then it calculates a person’s most likely body shape, not size, to determine the fit for any garment and offer more accurate recommendations.

And Gap Inc. has an augmented reality app in collaboration with Google and startup Avametric that allows shoppers to virtually try on clothes. Shoppers enter information like height and weight and then the app puts a 3-D model in front of them. However, the tool only works on Google Tango smartphones.

Sebastian DiGrande, executive vice president and strategy and chief customer officer at Gap, said the augmented reality app had produced good feedback, but the company is still determining whether shoppers really want a virtual 3-D model.

Clothing brand Tommy Hilfiger similarly has built its mobile app around the camera and image recognition. It has an augmented reality feature enabling shoppers to see what the clothes look like on a virtual runway model — but not their own body type.

And men’s online clothier Bonobos, now owned by Wal-Mart, launched an app that offers customers a virtual closet to see items they bought and saved. The app is converting browsers to buyers at a faster rate, said Andy Dunn, founder of Bonobos.

Companies are smart to offer new tools, but many are too “gimmicky,” said Sapna Shah, principal at Red Giraffe Advisors, which makes early-stage investments in fashion tech.

“If it’s not Amazon, will brand-specific apps be the way for people to shop in the future?” she said. “How many apps are people going to have on their phone?”

And all the companies need to win over customers who prefer to touch and see things in person.

“It’s great that they’re busting their tail with all these apps, but I am skeptical,” said Doug Garnett of Portland, Oregon. Garnett said he buys some clothes online when he knows and understands the brands, but otherwise, “I really need to see them on my body before I act, and really prefer that to be in a store.”

Personalized offers

As Amazon dives further into fashion, it could use its base of data to spur trends and personalize offers for its customers. Its Echo Look features a built-in camera that photographs and records shoppers trying on clothes and offers recommendations on outfits. It works with its Style Check app, using machine learning and advice from experts. The potential: Learn shoppers’ styles and recommend outfits to buy. Amazon reportedly is exploring the idea of quickly fulfilling online orders for custom-fit clothing.

The company also reportedly acquired Body Labs, which creates true-to-life 3-D body models.

“We’re always listening to our customers, learning and innovating on their behalf and bringing them products we think they will love,” said Amazon spokeswoman Molly Wade. She wouldn’t comment on the prospect of custom-fit or the reports about Body Labs.

Steve Barr, the U.S. retail and consumer sector leader at consultants PwC, said that Amazon was trying for a curated experience based on massive data analytics. But he said he thought such an approach had limitations.

“No matter how great Amazon is with artificial intelligence and predictive behaviors,” Barr said, “they can’t put a red tab on a pair of a jeans or a swoosh on a pair of shoes.”

Кримчанина Зейтуллаєва російська влада могла етапувати до виправної колонії в Башкортостан – дружина

Незаконно засудженого в Росії кримчанина, фігуранта «справи Хізб-ут Тахрір» Руслана Зейтуллаєва могли етапувати до виправної колонії в російській Республіці Башкортостан. Про це дружина Зейтуллаєва повідомила 28 жовтня на засіданні організації «Кримська солідарність», інформує сайт Крим.Реалії.

«Мені прийшов лист із СІЗО Уфи про те, що Руслана етапували десять днів тому до колонії №2 Салавата. Ніяких печаток або підписів, що це завіряють, на листі немає», – сказала Зейтуллаєва.

Адвокат Едем Семедляєв також зазначив, що крім цього листа підтверджень відправки Зейтуллаєва до колонії немає, а зв’язок із засудженим відсутній.

Також на засіданні дружина іншого незаконно засудженого фігуранта севастопольської «справи Хізб ут-Тахрір» Ферата Сайфуллаєва Ельзара повідомила, що її чоловіка помістили до спеціальної камери до 4 лютого.

Суд над кримчанами Зейтуллаєвим, Ваїтовим, Прімовим і Сайфуллаєвим розпочався в червні 2016 року. Їх заарештували взимку 2015 року в Севастополі й звинуватили в участі в забороненій у Росії ісламській організації «Хізб ут-Тахрір».

Північно-Кавказький окружний військовий суд у Ростові-на-Дону 7 вересня 2016 року засудив Зейтуллаєва до семи років колонії загального режиму, Сайфуллаєв, Ваітов і Прімов отримали по п’ять років колонії загального режиму.

Верховний суд Росії 27 липня 2017 року збільшив до 15 років строк позбавлення волі Зейтуллаєва.

Azerbajani Opposition Holds Anti-corruption Rally in Baku

Hundreds of people have attended an opposition-organized anticorruption rally in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku.

The protest Saturday was organized by the National Council of Democratic Forces (NCDF) — an umbrella group of Azerbaijani opposition forces, under the slogan “No To Robbery.”

Activists from the Popular Front Party, People’s Democratic Party, National Statehood Party, Musavat Party youth organization, Muslim Union, and NIDA movement attended the rally.

The rally held in the Mehsul stadium in Baku’s Yasamal district was approved by the city authorities. Police said the protest was attended by an estimated 1,000 people, although opposition activists say the number was higher.

Protesters chanted slogans like “End to corruption” and “Freedom for political prisoners!”

Police cordoned off the area around the stadium as part of increased security measures.

No incidents were reported, and the rally ended peacefully, police said.

The opposition, as well as Western governments and international human rights groups, have criticized Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s government for persistently persecuting independent media outlets, journalists, and opposition politicians and activists.

Aliyev, who has ruled the oil-rich South Caucasus country of nearly 10 million people since shortly before his father’s death in 2003, has shrugged off the criticism, and the authorities deny that there are political prisoners in the country.

Recent international corruption investigations have also found that Aliyev’s family makes frequent use of offshore companies to hide its wealth and mask the ways it gains shares in Azerbaijan’s most lucrative businesses.

During the rally, Ali Karimli, the leader of the Popular Front Party, which is part of the NCDF, denounced government corruption. He said the government doesn’t use oil revenues effeciently, and high-level corruption deprives Azerbaijanis from benefiting from oil billions.

Human rights activist Oktay Gulaliyev told the rally that freedom of speech was under threat in the country.

“Access to independent, critical Internet sites has been blocked,” Gulaliyev said. “There are more than 160 [political] prisoners in the country, and up to 20 of them are journalists and bloggers.”

The rally came after the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) earlier this month voiced concerns over Azerbaijan’s “unprecedented crackdown on human rights” as well as checks and balances, and the functioning of justice in the country.

PACE on October 11 passed a resolution blasting “the reported prosecution and detention of leaders of NGOs, human rights defenders, political activists, journalists, and bloggers,” although some of them were released last year.

PACE cited cases of “torture and inhuman or degrading treatment during arrest, in police custody, and in prisons, and the lack of effective investigations, violations of the right to a fair trial, and violations of the right to freedom of expression, association, and assembly.”

The resolution also called on Azerbaijani authorities to “begin real and meaningful reforms” to remove the obstacles to the work of journalists and rights defenders.

Azerbaijani Opposition Holds Anticorruption Rally in Baku

Hundreds of people attended on October 28 an opposition-organized anticorruption rally in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku. The protest was organized by the National Council of Democratic Forces (NCDF) — an umbrella group of Azerbaijani opposition forces, under the slogan “No To Robbery.” Protesters chanted slogans like “End to Corruption” and “Freedom for Political Prisoners!” (RFE/RL’s Azerbaijani Service)

У Києві відбувається «Конопляний марш свободи»

Близько 200 активістів у Києві вийшли на акцію «Конопляний марш свободи», передає кореспондент Радіо Свобода.

Спочатку вони пікетували будівлю уряду, вирушили до Міністерства охорони здоров’я, скандуючи: «Коноплі лікують!». Основна частина учасників – молодь, але є люди різного віку. Колону супроводжують поліцейські, наразі обійшлося без будь-яких інцидентів.

Як заявляли напередодні ініціатори ходи, у них – дві основні вимоги: декриміналізація незначних правопорушень у сфері обігу наркотиків (зберігання невеликих кількостей коноплі без мети збуту), а також врегулювання законного доступу до медичного канабісу для українських пацієнтів та вирощування його з науковою метою.

Згадана акція відбувається щорічно по кілька разів. Минулого разу люди виходили під Кабмін у травні цього року. 

На зустрічі з Волкером говорили про миротворців та законопроекти щодо Донбасу – депутати

Під час зустрічі спецпредставника Державного департаменту щодо України Курта Волкера із українськими депутатами обговорювали миротворців та законопроект про Донбас, який готується до другого читання у Верховній Раді, зазначила після зустрічі позафракційна депутатка Ганна Гопко.

«Обговорили напрацювання з просування української концепції миротворчої місії ООН серед міжнародних партнерів; законопроект у ВР, який готуємо до другого читання про визнання російської агресії, територій окупованими; надання захисної зброї. Передала лист від родичів політв’язнів Кремля з Криму та військовополонених Донбасу, які мали зустріч з Іриною Геращенко. Просимо, щоб гуманітарні питання, захист прав людини та порятунок, звільнення українців, заручників був топ-пріоритетом під час перемовин наших західних партнерів з Російською Федерацією, на зустрічах з Сурковим», – написала вона у Facebook.

Тим часом, депутат від «Батьківщини» Олексій Рябчин, зазначив, що обговорювалися«два законопроекти щодо Донбасу, що були проголосовані в Раді».

«Я не можу повністю цитувати його відповіді, але я був ними задоволений. Тому, якщо Росія нарешті на четвертий рік війни буде названа агресором – це та реальність, з якою вона повинна рахуватись», – написав він у Facebook.

Курт Волкер прибув до України з незапланованим візитом. У п’ятницю він мав зустріч із українською делегацією на чолі зі спікером парламенту Андрієм Парубієм. Згодом відбулись закриті переговори з президентом Петром Порошенком. Напередодні Волкер зустрівся з міністром закордонних справ України Павлом Клімкіним.

Spain Dissolves Catalonia’s Parliament

The Spanish region of Catalonia that once enjoyed a considerable amount of autonomy is now under the direct control of Madrid.

The Spanish prime minister dissolved Catalonia’s parliament, just hours after the regional body voted Friday in favor of independence from Spain.

In addition to dismissing parliament, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has called for snap Catalan elections Dec. 21 and has stripped Catalonia’s most senior police officials of their powers.

​Resolution to secede

The resolution to secede from Spain was drafted and presented to Catalonia’s parliament by the more radical separatist factions of the regional coalition headed by Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont. It passed with 70 votes in favor, 10 against, and two blank votes.

WATCH: Fears of Violence as Spain Imposes Direct Rule Following Catalonian Independence Declaration

Spain’s ruling center-right Popular Party and the mainstream opposition socialists, who hold just under half the seats in the Catalan parliament, boycotted the session.

Spain’s Senate responded to Catalonia’s independence move by approving the application of constitutional article 155, which officially authorizes the central government to suspend Catalan authorities and take over the region’s administration.

Immediately following the Spanish senate vote to impose direct rule on Catalonia, the government issued an official bulletin announcing that Puigdemont and his Vice President Orio Junqueras were no longer the heads of the Catalonia regional government.

“We will not allow a group of people to liquidate the country,” said Prime Minister Rajoy.

Catalan leader Puigdemont encouraged supporters to “maintain the momentum” of an independent Catalonia in a peaceful manner.

​Allies back Spain

The European Union Council President Donald Tusk, who has supported Madrid’s approach to the crisis, said via Twitter that he hoped “the Spanish government favors force of argument, not argument of force.”

NATO, of which Spain is a member, said in a statement, “The Catalonia issue is a domestic matter which should be resolved within Spain’s constitutional order.”

Madrid’s efforts to keep the country united also has the continued support of the U.S. government. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement, “… the United States supports the Spanish government’s constitutional measures to keep Spain strong and united.”

Voters in Catalonia voted in favor of independence in an Oct. 1 referendum, but fewer than half of those eligible to cast a ballot took part, with opponents boycotting the process. Rajoy’s government has dismissed the referendum as illegal. 

Weirdness, Few Tourists, Return to Key West After Irma

Things are weird, as usual, in Key West.

A pair of Vikings push a stroller full of stuffed chimps down Duval Street. A man with a ponytail swallows a steel sword. People dressed only in body paint and glitter wander and jiggle from bar to bar.

Fantasy Fest, one of Key West’s major tourist draws of the year, is in full swing. And that’s a relief for Florida Keys business owners trying to weather the economic storm that hit after Hurricane Irma battered the middle stretch of the tourism-dependent island chain.

Bucket list trip

The festivities have not disappointed Gary Gates from Buffalo, New York, who planned this “bucket list” trip 10 months ago with six friends.

“We were coming whether there was a hurricane or not,” the former NFL cameraman said. “I’ve never seen anything quite like this. To come down here and actually see people dressed in all kinds of costumes — or no costumes at all — was something that I needed to see.”

Gates flew into Key West and has not left during its annual 10-day festival of costume parties and parades, so he has not seen the devastation that lingers more than a month since Hurricane Irma made landfall Sept. 10 about 20 miles north of the city.

​Middle Keys hit hardest

The mostly residential middle stretch of the island chain took the brunt of the hurricane’s 130-mph winds. The area is almost entirely brown, with debris piled alongside the highway and mangroves stripped bare. A stranded boat was christened the SS Irma with spray paint and offered “free” to drivers passing by.

But at opposite ends of the 120-mile-long island chain, tourist attractions in Key Largo and Key West escaped significant damage.

Dolphins Plus Bayside was ready for visitors three days after Irma’s landfall, but business has been down by half compared to last fall, said Mike Borguss, the third generation in his family to run the Key Largo attraction.

Some staff now live with friends or in temporary trailers parked outside their damaged homes, but the dolphins swim up to the water’s edge to check out new people toting cameras, and an adjacent hotel property is open for weddings and other events that had to be canceled elsewhere in the Keys because of Irma, said Art Cooper, Borguss’ cousin and curator at Dolphins Plus Bayside.

“The water’s pretty, the weather’s beautiful and we wish you were here,” Cooper said.

​Tourism down significantly

Scott Saunders, president and CEO of Fury Water Adventures, estimated tourism in Key West has been about a third of what it was at this time last fall, even though the city’s hotels, restaurants, cruise ship operations and beaches quickly reopened after the storm.

“There’s no reason not to be doing everything we did last year,” Saunders said before one of his fleet’s sunset cruises. “We should be having that tourist base down here, but we haven’t had any.”

Jodi Weinhofer, president of the Lodging Association of the Florida Keys and Key West, blames news coverage of Irma, but not the hurricane itself, for the downturn.

“There was over a $100 million worth of negative press,” Weinhofer said.

Tourism big business in Keys

Tourism is a $2.7 billion industry in the Keys, supporting 54 percent of all jobs in the island chain, according to Monroe County’s Tourist Development Council.

Some jobs have been lost to Irma. Last week, Hawks Cay Resort on Duck Key, about 35 miles northeast of Irma’s landfall, let go 260 workers amid ongoing repairs. The Islamorada Resort Company said its four properties in the Middle Keys will be closed for renovations over the next six months.

But up and down the island chain, bars, marinas and mom-and-pop establishments able to reopen have been hiring laid-off workers and keeping people from moving away, Daniel Samess, CEO of the Greater Marathon Chamber of Commerce.

About 70 percent of roughly 35 hotels and motels in the Middle Keys are open, though those rooms mostly are filled by displaced residents and state and federal recovery workers. Officials plan to provide alternative housing and open those hotel rooms fully to tourists within the next two months, Samess said.

Final sweeps for debris in some parts of the Keys are scheduled Sunday, which also is the finale for Fantasy Fest. So far, the amount of broken tree branches and remnants of homes and belongings wrecked by Irma could fill over 133 Goodyear Blimps, according to Monroe County officials.

The cleanup will help create a good impression for visitors to Key West long before they arrive in the southernmost city in the continental U.S., said Key West Mayor Craig Cates.

“It’s a scenic cruise in your car coming down, and it’s very important that they get it cleaned up,” he said.

Italy Blocks DNA Evidence That Could Exonerate Human Trafficking Suspect

Italian prosecutors will not accept as evidence a DNA test that could exonerate an Eritrean man accused of smuggling thousands of Africans to Italy.

It’s the latest setback for Medhane Tesfamariam Berhe, whose trial has continued for more than a year, despite mounting evidence that Italian authorities are prosecuting the wrong person.

Berhe’s lawyer, Michele Calantropo, argued during a 45-minute hearing Wednesday that his client is the victim of mistaken identity in a case that has gained worldwide attention.

Berhe’s mother, Meaza Zerai Weldai, 59, flew this week from Asmara, Eritrea, to complete a DNA test to prove her maternity and establish Berhe’s identity.

Calantropo contends that the actual person suspected of trafficking migrants shares Berhe’s first name. He believes Berhe was wrongfully identified in 2016 when he was arrested in Sudan and extradited to Italy.

​Mistaken identity

Soon after the extradition, doubts emerged about the identity of the person Italian and British authorities had captured.

Prosecutors released photos of a man who looked nothing like the person they had taken into custody. Instead, the person in the photos resembled Medhanie Yehdego Mered, whom many believe to be the real trafficker.

Other discrepancies include:

Numerous documents vouch for Berhe’s whereabouts in Eritrea at times prosecutors say he was trafficking people in Libya.
Vocal analysis did not produce a match between Berhe and a conversation that authorities wiretapped with the suspected smuggler in 2014.
Individuals smuggled by Mered say Berhe is not the same person.
Even Mered’s wife, Lidya Tesfu, who lives in Sweden, says authorities have the wrong man. Tesfu did not immediately respond to a request for comment from VOA.
In July, The New Yorker reported that it had talked by phone to Mered, who confirmed his involvement with trafficking and expressed amazement at the incompetence of European authorities. “These European governments, their technology is so good, but they know nothing,” he told the magazine.

Prosecutors block evidence

The Italian investigators prosecuting the case would not accept the new DNA test as evidence in Berhe’s trial, blocking its admission. In Italy, both the prosecution and defense must agree to admit evidence that emerges outside of an investigation.

“We are basing our legal proceedings on other data, not on DNA,” Prosecutor Annamaria Picozzi said in court this week, according to The Guardian.

Lead prosecutor Calogero Ferrara did not respond to VOA’s email or phone requests for an interview.

The sister of the man being held in custody, Hiwet Tesfamariam Berhe, believes this is a miscarriage of justice.

“I don’t understand it. In a country where there is democracy, where there is justice, they violated my brother’s rights. And they kept him for more than a year for something he has no knowledge of and to say that we have human rights, puffing out their chest and claim that there is human rights? I don’t know where human rights are,” she told VOA by telephone from Norway, speaking in Tigrigna.

The next hearing is scheduled for Nov. 9, a year and a half after authorities extradited Berhe. Despite failing to produce evidence linking Berhe to the crimes he is accused of committing, prosecutors show no signs of giving up the case.

“Instead of playing with one poor, innocent kid’s life and time, why don’t they really find the people who are really committing these things. They are using us as a way to buy time because they know the truth,” Berhe’s sister said.

New Gadgets We May (or May Not) Need

The ever expanding field of consumer technology just got several dozen new specimens, showcased at the Netherlands’ first Consumer Electronics Show. None are expected to spectacularly change our lives … but at least some of them may prove to be truly useful. VOA’s George Putic reports.

Київ виступає за окрему підгрупу щодо неконтрольованої ділянки кордону з Росією – Оліфер 

Українська сторона Тристоронньої контактної групи з врегулювання ситуації на Донбасі в Мінську порушила питання про створення окремої робочої підгрупи щодо неконтрольованої ділянки українсько-російського кордону, а також висловила стурбованість небажанням керівництва Росії передавати Києву контроль над цією ділянкою, повідомила прес-секретар другого президента України, представника країни в ТКГ Леоніда Кучми Дарина Оліфер за підсумками зустрічі.

«Українська сторона ставить питання створення окремої робочої підгрупи щодо непідконтрольної Україні ділянки українсько-російського кордону. На засіданні ТКГ українська сторона висловила занепокоєння нещодавньою заявою президента Рочії, зроблену ним на Валдайському форумі, щодо того, що російська сторона не збирається передавати Україні контроль над відповідною ділянкою кордону», – написала Оліфер на сторінці у Facebook.

За її словами, Київ наполягав на тому, що вздовж неконтрольованої ділянки українсько-російського кордону слід створити зони безпеки. Дебальцеве має перебувати під контролем України, а район населених пунктів Саханка, Новоазовськ, Кумачове, Кальміуське має бути вільним від тяжкого озброєння, додала Оліфер. Вона вказала на необхідності повернення до лінії розмежування, встановленої Меморандумом від 19 вересня 2014 року.

Також Оліфер повідомила, що українська сторона сьогодні наполягала на «цілковитому і безперешкодному» доступі СММ ОБСЄ до всієї території ОРДЛО, включно із непідконтрольною частиною українсько-російського кордону.

«Вже найближчими днями координатор підгрупи від ОБСЄ Тоні Фріш вирушить до ОРЛО, де відвідає заручників і перевірить умови їхнього утримання. Ми сподіваємося, що ця поїздка дозволить зрушити з місця процес звільнення людей», – повідомила речниця Леоніда Кучми.

Українська сторона, за її словами, закликала Росію вплинути на бойовиків задля виконання їхньої частини зобов’язань щодо розблокування роботи КПВВ «Золоте».

Сьогодні у Мінську відбулися засідання кількох підгруп Тристоронньої контактної групи з врегулювання ситуації на Донбасі. Засідання було плановим. Відповідно до графіку, узгодженого влітку, наступні контакти переговорників – 15 і 29 листопада та 5 і 20 грудня.

Черговий режим припинення вогню мав почати діяти з 25 серпня, напередодні початку шкільного року, і стати постійним. Про перші його порушення сторони заявили вже через кілька хвилин після настання часу перемир’я.

Про перемир’я в зоні конфлікту на Донбасі домовлялися вже багато разів, досі жодного разу режим припинення вогню не втримувався. При цьому сторони щоразу заперечують свою вину в порушеннях і звинувачують протилежну сторону у провокаціях.

Через обстріли бойовиків поранений 1 український військовослужбовець – штаб

Штаб української воєнної операції на Донбасі повідомив, що через обстріли з боку підтримуваних Росією бойовиків упродовж п’ятниці поранень зазнав один український військовослужбовець. Як йдеться в повідомленні штабу на сторінці у Facebook, сталося це у районі Авдіївської промзони.

«Стан його здоров’я оцінюється як задовільний», – додали у штабі.

Згідно з повідомленням, обстріли сьогодні тривали також біля Водяного та Широкина, де близько 15-ї години бойовики обстріляли із 120-міліметрових мінометів цивільні будинки.

Раніше сьогодні у прес-центрі штабу АТО повідомили про 20 випадків порушення режиму перемир’я за минулу добу з боку підтримуваних Росією бойовиків.

В угрупованні «ДНР» звинуватили українських військових у 34 обстрілах за минулу добу, луганські сепаратисти заявили, що українська сторона напередодні 8 разів стріляла в бік підконтрольних угрупованню «ЛНР» територій.

Черговий режим припинення вогню, про який заявила 23 серпня Тристороння контактна група, мав почати діяти з 25 серпня, напередодні початку шкільного року, і стати постійним. Про перші його порушення сторони заявили вже через кілька хвилин після настання часу перемир’я.

Про перемир’я в зоні конфлікту на Донбасі домовлялися вже багато разів, досі жодного разу режим припинення вогню не втримувався. При цьому сторони щоразу заперечують свою вину в порушеннях і звинувачують протилежну сторону у провокаціях.

 

Catalonia Parliament Votes for Independence from Spain

The Catalan regional parliament voted for independence from Spain on Friday by approving a resolution to convene a constitutional assembly to form a sovereign republic. The move was accompanied by applause and embraces between lawmakers present, who sang the Catalan anthem.

The resolution to secede from Spain was drafted and presented by the more radical separatist factions of the regional coalition headed by Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont, and it passed by 72 votes in favor, 10 against and 2 blank votes.

Spain’s ruling center-right Popular Party and the mainstream opposition socialists, who hold just under half the seats in the Catalan parliament, boycotted the session.

Friday’s resolution by the Catalan regional parliament ends a period of uncertainty over Catalan independence that has prevailed since an October 1 referendum on independence that won 90 percent of the vote in a 50 percent voter turnout.

Puigdemont has held back from declaring independence for fear of triggering direct rule by the central government, which has been moving to take over the region’s finances, police services, and key infrastructure and administrative bodies.

“It was very astute on the part of Puigdemont to let parliament vote on independence resolution prior to declaring it, as it gives him certain legal cover,” a former senior member of the Spanish parliament told VOA.

Puigdemont could face a 25-year prison sentence for sedition. The central government already has jailed two separatist leaders and is prosecuting other officials accused of using public resources to support the independence bid.

Spain’s Senate responded to Catalonia’s independence move by approving the application of constitutional article 155, which officially authorizes the central government to suspend Catalan authorities and take over the region’s administration.

“The turn of events … has left us with no recourse but the application of constitutional prerogatives to reinstitute the legal order in Catalonia,” said Spain’s senate president.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy appealed for national “calm” and called together a special cabinet meeting for later Friday.

“The government will take whatever measures are necessary. We will not allow a group of people to liquidate the country,” he told reporters.

Puigdemont, accompanied by other members of the Catalan regional government, lawmakers and hundreds of mayors, crowded onto the steps of the parliament building to address thousands of supporters gathering outside, shouting “liberty.”

In a short speech, Puigdemont said, “We ourselves must now form our own structures and our own society.”

Catalan, Spanish Historians Continue Dueling, Using History as Battlefield

History is a battlefield in the contentious independence standoff between Spain and Catalan secessionists, pressed into service by each, shaped as a weapon and hurled with abandon.

Both sides in the confrontation that threatens the territorial integrity of Spain have raised the political temperature by citing some of the darkest chapters in Spanish and Catalan history to provoke or to bolster support.

Underscoring the struggle for hearts and minds are disputes about who did what to whom, stretching back to 1714, an emblematic year for Catalans, when after a long siege the Catalan capital of Barcelona, which was loyal to the Habsburg dynasty, fell to the troops of the Bourbon monarch, Felipe V.

The victorious king shuttered Catalonia’s parliament, closed the city’s universities and banned Catalan as the official language.

Since then, the Catalans have struggled with three centuries of exclusion and repression by Madrid, enjoying short periods of autonomy and recognition, and long periods of being forced into a cultural homogeneity dictated by the dominant Castilian nationalism of Spain.

When Spain’s current monarch, Felipe VI, broadcast earlier this month in an unprecedented televised address, his condemnation of Catalan separatists for their “lack of loyalty to the Spanish government,” casting their October 1 independence vote as illegal and undemocratic, Catalan secessionists reacted by referencing the 18th century repression of his namesake.

Catalan commentators, even those holding pro-unity sentiments, complained the king was not the best person to deliver a scathing attack on the independence aspirations of Catalan secessionists, arguing he was merely feeding into the separatist narrative of Madrid’s long-standing disdain for the sub-nationalisms of the Catalans, Basques and Galicians, and the Castilian oppression of Catalonia stretching back to 1714.

The most frequent references to the past that both sides have used to frame the independence standoff roiling Spain, however, is to the Spanish Civil War and the dictatorship of General Francisco Franco.

Regional autonomy was a key driver of the Spanish Civil War — Franco and the nationalist army opposed the leftwing Republican government’s extension of autonomy to Catalonia and the Basques.

To hear some Catalan separatists speak, Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is the second coming of General Franco, a hyperbolic comparison considering that in the purges following the civil war the Franco regime executed an estimated 3,000 to 4,000 Catalans.

That’s a far cry from the violent clashes at voting stations on October 1 when 800 were injured as police, on the orders of Madrid, sought to close voting stations in Barcelona.

“The suppression Catalans lived with during the Franco dictatorship has remained in people’s hearts, and has been transmitted to my generation,” argued Catalan filmmaker Irene Baque.

Some critics of the separatists counter that more Catalans likely were killed during the civil war by the Communist-dominated Republican government as it sought to purge anarchists, Trotskyites and other political undesirables from its ranks — an action that fractured the left as it sought to fend off Franco’s fascist uprising.

And they note that during the 1939-1975 Franco dictatorship there were plenty in the ranks of Catalonia’s middle and landed classes who saw conservative values and law and order as higher priorities than Catalan nationalism. They were supportive of the regime and thrived under it.  

Some hardline Spanish nationalists have gleefully stoked the fires of past controversy.

Earlier this month, Pablo Casado, a lawmaker with Rajoy’s ruling People’s Party, warned Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont that history might repeat itself. Casado said his fate could be similar to that of one of his predecessors, Lluis Companys, who ended up being shot in 1940 by General Franco.

And there was deliberate provocation by Spanish nationalists in Madrid last month when some cheered national police units as they headed to Catalonia to try to prevent the October 1 independence vote by shouting “Viva Franco.”   

“This is a very long lasting political conflict,” said Josep Costa, a political scientist. “The issue of the status of Catalonia within Spain is a problem that comes out every time there is a democratic opening of Spanish society.”

Both sides can be accused of airbrushing the complex history of Spain. Most Spaniards remain unaware the first book printed in Spain was in Catalan. Pro-unity Catalan historians complain that they get snubbed by Catalonia’s cultural institutions, which are dominated the pro-secessionists.

Spanish and Catalan historians have been guilty of mutual ignorance for years, with Spanish historians disregarding Catalan contributions and glorifying the story of the Castilians, and their Catalan rivals doing the reverse and demonizing Spain, according to Swiss journalist Raphael Minder.

“National identity is rooted in history, which is why so much importance is attached to celebrating one event rather than another,” he wrote in his new book on Catalan rebel politics, The Struggle for Catalonia.

He added, “When there is serious disagreement over the past, it becomes even harder to agree over the present, let alone the future.”

 

 

 

Угорщина заветувала наступне засідання комісії НАТО-Україна

Угорщина не зможе підтримати євроінтеграційні зусилля України, через це Будапешт заветував скликання засідання комісії НАТО-Україна, запланованого на 6 грудня. Про це заявив керівник МЗС Угорщини Петер Сійярто на прес-конференції у Будапешті.

Угорщина, за його словами, до початку вересня була серед тих, хто «найголосніше і найактивніше» за це виступав, але після ухвалення освітнього закону в Україні почувається так, ніби «отримала удар у спину».

За словами Сійярто, його країна і зараз продовжувала б цей же курс, «але може надати таку підтримку тільки тим державам, чиї рішення і поведінка заслуговують на це», сказав міністр.

При цьому він наголосив, що Будапешт готовий до консультацій, але не може прийняти стану, коли, за твердженням Сійярто, закон відбирає вже попередньо здобуті права нацменшин.

Він звернув увагу на те, що Угорщину також турбує налаштованість депутатів Верховної Ради України розглянути законопроекти про мову і громадянство. Якшо зараз в Угорщині не виступлять проти закону про освіту, це може підбадьорити українську владу ухвалити і два інших закони, вважає глава угорської дипломатії.

Він попередив, що Угорщина робитиме ці дипломатичні кроки доти, поки закарпатські угорці не визнають, що мовно-освітня ситуація не врегульована для них належним чином.

Відповідаючи на запитання журналістів, Сійярто повідомив, що наразі немає можливості якось обійти угорське вето, оскільки скликання комісії НАТО-Україна потребує одностайного голосування.

У МЗС України на заяви очільника зовнішньополітичного відомства Угорщини поки офіційно не реагували.

Угорщина однією з перших розкритикувала ухвалений закон України «Про освіту» від 5 вересня і пригрозила, що через нього блокуватиме всі міжнародні ініціативи України. Серед найбільших критиків Києва також були Росія, Румунія, Польща. Свої застереження щодо освіти нацменшин висловили Болгарія, Греція і Молдова. Влада України відкинула звинувачення у витісненні мов меншин з освітнього процесу.

19 жовтня у Міністерстві освіти повідомили, що Україна, угорська громада в Україні й Угорщина спільно домовляться, як імплементувати мовну норму закону «Про освіту».

 

 

 

НА ЦЮ Ж ТЕМУ:

Чи потрібна укромадярам «велика Угорщина»?

Освіта і мова. Чи виконував Будапешт те, що нині вимагає від Києва?

Будапешт відверто заграється – МЗС України про акцію «Самовизначення для Закарпаття»

Чи винна Україна, що закарпатські угорці погано знають українську мову?

US Economy Expands at 3 Percent Rate in Third Quarter

The U.S. economy expanded at a three percent annual pace in July, August and September, about the same pace as the prior quarter.

Friday’s Commerce Department data surprised economists, who thought damage from two hurricanes would cut growth to a lower level. The data show the world’s largest economy is now about 2.3 percent larger than it was at this time last year.

Stuart Hoffman of PNC bank says the “solid” growth data is likely to help corporate profits and reinforce the U.S. central bank’s determination to raise interest rates in December. Josh Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute says the figures “overstate” growth, and he notes inflation is still below the Fed’s two percent target, making an interest rate hike unnecessary at this time.

Officials raise rates to fend off high inflation by cooling economic activity. Rates were slashed during the recession to bolster growth and employment. 

Federal Reserve leaders gather Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington to debate interest rate policy. Most economists predict they will not raise rates until their next meeting in mid-December.

Next Friday, government experts will publish unemployment data for October. September’s rate was a low 4.2 percent.

Britain: North Korea Was Behind May Global Cyberattack

British Security Minister Ben Wallace said Friday Britain believed “quite strongly” that North Korea was responsible for a global cyberattack earlier this year.

The cyberattack, which occurred in May, disrupted government services and businesses throughout the world, including one-third of English hospitals.

“North Korea was the state that we believe was involved in this worldwide attack on our systems,” Wallace said in an interview with the BBC. He added the British government was “as sure as possible.”

More than 300,000 computers in 150 countries were infected within days of the “WannaCry” attack, dubbed as such because the WannaCry ransomware cryptoworm was deployed.

A report released Friday by Britain’s National Audit Office (NAO) said WannaCry was a relatively simple attack that Britain’s National Health Service (NHS) could have prevented if it adhered to basic information technology best practices.

NHS digital security head Dan Taylor described the event as “an international attack on an unprecedented scale” and said the agency has “learned a lot.”

Minister Wallace said Britain must act quickly to strengthen its cybersecurity program.

“It’s a salient lesson for us all that all of us, from individuals to governments to large organizations, have a role to play in maintaining the security of our networks,” Wallace said.

Ransomware attacks utilize a type of malware that encrypts files on infected computers and demands money to unlock them.

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief?

President Trump says he is “very close” to picking a person for the most important economic post in the country: the head of the US Federal Reserve. Current Chair Janet Yellen, whose term expires early next year, is one of at least five candidates under consideration. Regardless of the president’s choice, most analysts who spoke with VOA don’t expect big changes in US monetary policy. But as Mil Arcega reports, others say, sooner or later the next Fed Chief could face a slowing economy.

Party’s Launch Could Upend Erdogan, Turkey’s Political Establishment

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accused by critics of amassing power and creating the latest in a series of autocratic governments in the country, faces a new political threat after the launch Wednesday of the Iyi Party by Meral Aksener.

The former interior minister boosted her profile by campaigning against a referendum on extending the Turkish president’s powers, and now observers see her as potentially posing the biggest challenge to Erdogan’s re-election bid. Some polls show she could secure more than 20 percent of the vote and threaten the majority that Erdogan’s party now holds in parliament.

Aksener, a right-wing nationalist, is promising to shake up Turkish politics with the launch of her Iyi, or “Good,” Party.

“It is time to say new things,” she said Wednesday in a speech at the kickoff of her party, where she promised to take things in a new direction. “Yes, we have major problems. But Turkey has enough powers to resolve them. We have hopes and dreams. We want a prosperous and just Turkey. We want a free society. We want a happy Turkey.”

Criticism on human rights

The Good Party seeks to place itself in the center-right of Turkey’s political spectrum. In what appeared to be a jab at the Erdogan government and its post-coup-attempt crackdown on journalists, Aksener took aim at the country’s recent human rights record.

“Media should not be under pressure. Democratic participation, a strong parliament and the national will are irreplaceable,” she said.

Turkey has been under emergency rule since last year’s failed coup, with tens of thousands arrested or dismissed from their jobs.

Aksener, interior minister during the 1990s, gained prominence this year in a formidable campaign against a referendum to extend Erdogan’s powers. The ballot measure was approved, but by the narrowest of margins — something analysts attributed to the success of Aksener’s campaign.

Several recent opinion polls have suggested she enjoys strong support, with one poll giving any party she leads more than 20 percent in what political analysts say could be a rising tide of discontent about the crackdown.

“She clearly rides the wave of current political anxiety and dissatisfaction of voters with existing political parties,” said political consultant Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners, a political and economic analysis service. “The economy is slowing down and the currency is going down. People are accumulating foreign currency. There is anxiety about what the future will bring.”

Turkey is suffering both double-digit inflation and unemployment, while the currency is approaching record lows fueled by diplomatic tensions with many allies and concerns about the country’s large foreign debt. A driver of Erdogan’s success at the polls was a booming economy, characterized by massive infrastructure projects.

Appeal to AKP constituency

If Erdogan’s fortunes are in fact changing, and supporters insist they are not, Aksener could benefit.

“She is getting cross-party support,” said political scientist Cengiz Aktar, highlighting that a parliamentary deputy of the center-left CHP Party had joined her ranks. “But the natural terrain of her party where she can really grow is the constituency of the [ruling] AKP Party.”

The timing of the founding of the Good Party is opportune for Erdogan opponents, coinciding with what observers say are signs that Erdogan’s AKP is in disarray. Erdogan is in the midst of purging dozens of the country’s mayors — including those of the capital, Ankara, and Istanbul — in an effort to revitalize his party ahead of general and presidential elections in 2019.

“This whole process is demoralizing the [AKP] party. Their willingness and desire to fight the next election is diminishing as we speak,” said political consultant Yesilada. “It’s like the old joke in the office: ‘Whippings will continue until morale improves.’ It does not work that way,” the analyst said.

While opinion polls give AKP a commanding lead over its rivals, some polls record a softening in AKP support, with as much as 20 percent of its voters considering not supporting the party. But Aksener’s political past is seen as a potential handicap.

“Her party of origin is the extreme right MHP Party, which is far from being a center-right party,” said Aktar. “Her brain team [advisers], her very close team, are almost all [of] MHP origin. Among them are some very radical figures. She needs to broaden her political staff if she is to broaden her constituency. For the time being, in Turkish public opinion, she is considered an offspring [of] the MHP.”

Winning over Kurdish voters

In the eyes of skeptics, Aksener’s political baggage will be her biggest hurdle in seeking to win over AKP Kurdish voters, who account for about a fifth of its support. The MHP, her old party, is deeply hostile to the granting of greater rights to Turkey’s large Kurdish minority. But with Erdogan increasingly courting nationalist voters, he has enforced a major military crackdown in Kurdish regions. Ankara’s tough stance against the recent Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum, some analysts say, has further alienated traditional AKP Kurdish voters.

“The AKP Kurds have no alternative, even though Erdogan has been quite tough on the Kurds. The traditionalist Kurds know CHP or MHP is no alternative. They will evaluate now whether the Iyi Party is serious,” said Aktar.

Aksener reportedly is planning to spend time in the Kurdish region. Critics charge that the logo of her party, perhaps by coincidence, is an image of the sun, a traditional symbol of Kurdish nationalists.

“Aksener, during her time as interior minister, was considered a heavily anti-Kurdish politician, so she needs to change this image and it won’t be easy. There are no good memories about her among the Kurdish population,” said Aktar.

Aksener’s tenure as interior minister was at the height of fighting against the Kurdish separatist group, the PKK. She was then a member of the center-right DYP Party, which traditionally secured significant Kurdish votes despite the conflict, a legacy observers say she will seek to resurrect.

On Kurdish rights, as on most key policy issues, Aksener has not yet revealed her hand.

“She is going to get reaction votes, but whether she really can put together an agenda that will appeal to all those unsatisfied voters is an unanswered question,” said Yesilada.

Greater Scrutiny Set for Nonimmigrant Work Visa Renewals

The United States has announced changes to its nonimmigrant work visa policies that are expected to make renewals more difficult.

In the past, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services would generally approve the renewals unless the visa holder had committed a crime. Now, renewals will face the same scrutiny as the original applications.

“USCIS officers are at the front lines of the administration’s efforts to enhance the integrity of the immigration system,” USCIS Director L. Francis Cissna said, according to the announcement posted on USCIS’ website this week. “This updated guidance provides clear direction to help advance policies that protect the interests of U.S. workers.”

The new regulations could affect more than 100,000 people holding at least eight different types of work visas who fill out the I-129 form for renewals.

Sam Adair, a partner at the Graham Adair business immigration law firm in California and Texas, said that for the most part, he expected visa holders would most likely face lengthier adjudication periods in their renewal processes, as opposed to increased numbers of denials.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a big shift for us,” Adair told VOA. “But I think what we’ll see is just an increase in the number of requests for evidence, an increase in the delays on the adjudication of these petitions, and really it’s going to just result in more costs for the employers who are filing these petitions.”

‘High-skilled’ workers

Of all visa holders affected by this policy, those in the United States on an H-1B, a visa for “high-skilled” workers, are the biggest group. Of 109,537 people who had to submit I-129 forms in fiscal 2017, 95,485 were H-1B holders, according to data sent to VOA by USCIS.

H-1B visas have been threatened in the past, most recently by a bill proposed this year that would have raised the minimum salary requirement for workers brought in on the visa. While advocates of the program argued that it would keep workers from being exploited, many H-1B holders feared that businesses would be less willing to hire them or keep them on board.

But some Americans support the new regulations, saying that nonimmigrant work visas hurt American workers.

“It’s prudent to make sure that the people that receive those visas are in complete compliance with all of the requirements,” Joe Guzzardi, national media director of Californians for Population Stabilization, told VOA.

“It just isn’t possible to think that there aren’t American workers that couldn’t fill these jobs,” he said, noting that while the regulations might hurt businesses, they would help Americans looking for work.

NATO Challenges Russia on Scope of War Games

NATO has accused Russia of misleading the Western military alliance about the military exercises it held last month with Belarus.

“There is a discrepancy between what Russia briefed before the exercise … and the actual numbers and the scale and the scope of the exercise,” NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday.

Russian defense officials said the Zapad 2017 exercises involved 12,700 troops, but NATO contends there were nearly 100,000 troops from the Arctic to eastern Ukraine and that they simulated attacks on the West.

Alexander Grushko, Russia’s ambassador to NATO, disputed the claim. “NATO countries are counting all the military activities that took place in the Russian Federation and counting them as part of Zapad,” he said. “We don’t accept the propaganda about the Russian exercises.”

In the run-up to the exercises, there was concern in the West that Russia would use the war games to seize parts of the Baltics that have high numbers of Russian minorities, as it did with Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014.

There was also concern that Moscow would leave troops at NATO’s borders, for possible future confrontation with the West. But Stoltenberg said there was no indication Russia had done so.

Grushko insisted there was “no proof” of the claims NATO was making. “All efforts have been to demonize Zapad,” he said.

Trump Ponders New Head for Federal Reserve

President Donald Trump says he is “very close” to picking a person for the most important economic post in the United States, the head of the Federal Reserve. Current Chair Janet Yellen’s term expires early next year and she is one of at least five candidates for the job.

Besides Yellen, the candidates include Fed board member Jerome Powell, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, Stanford University economist John Taylor and Trump economic adviser Gary Cohn.

Moody’s Analytics economist Ryan Sweet says a new Fed chief is likely to continue current policy at least for a while because “rocking the boat” could rattle financial markets.

The Fed’s job is to manage the world’s largest economy in ways that maximize employment and maintain stable prices. During recessions, the bank cuts interest rates in a bid to boost economic growth and create more jobs.To cope with the most recent recession, the U.S. central bank slashed interest rates nearly to zero.

The jobless rate fell from 10 percent to the current 4.2 percent, and the economy stopped shrinking and began growing slowly.

Critics of the record-low interest rates said keeping rates too low for too long could spark strong inflation and damage the economy. However, the inflation rate has been below the two percent level that many experts say is best for the economy.

As a member of the Fed’s board and later as Chair, Yellen supported low interest rates and a slow, cautious return to “normal” rates. Experts also say she improved communication between the Fed and financial markets, which reduced uncertainty and reassured investors.

Trump criticized Yellen during the campaign, but then as president, praised her work. Analysts Tom Buerkle of “Reuters Breaking Views” gives the Fed credit for taking effective action during a crisis when Congress was reluctant to act.

Another candidate is former investment banker Gary Cohn, who now heads the National Economic Council at the White House. He has reportedly been working on efforts to reform taxes and boost spending on U.S. infrastructure.

Fed Board member Jerome Powell is also a candidate. He is a Republican with a background in private equity who served in a top Treasury Department post. Powell supported Yellen’s approach of slashing interest rates during the crisis, and returning them to historic levels as the economy recovers.

When rates were cut to nearly zero, Fed officials took the further step of buying huge quantities of bonds in an effort to push down long-term interest rates to give additional economic stimulus. The complex procedure is called “quantitative easing.”

“Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics says when the next recession appears, Powell will be more willing to use tools like quantitative easing than more conservative candidates like Kevin Warsh and John Taylor.

Warsh is a former member of the Fed’s board, a lawyer, and a former executive of a major financial firm with experience at the president’s National Economic Council.

John Taylor of Stanford University and the Hoover Institution is an eminent economist who has served on advisory councils for presidents and congress and written books on economic topics. Taylor came up with an equation, called the “Taylor Rule,” that considers inflation as well as slack in the economy as a way to set interest rates. Some conservatives say the Taylor Rule would improve policymaking.

Critics say the economy is too complex to be managed by a computer, and the Taylor Rule would make the Fed less independent and effective.

Tara Sinclair of Indeed.com says independence is a “key part” of having an effective monetary policy. She says the interest rate-setting process and other decisions need to be separate from Congress and the administration so interest rates and other policies are based on long-run economic needs.

The president is expected to announce his choice in early November.