Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has signed a string of energy, military and other deals with Morocco during a North Africa tour.

Medvedev met Wednesday with Moroccan Prime Minister Saadeddine El Othmani and presided at a signing ceremony for 11 bilateral agreements.

The agreements cover cooperation in areas such as customs, agriculture, the military and culture, as well as energy efficiency and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

The disputed Western Sahara region that Morocco annexed in the mid-1970s also was a topic of the talks.

Medvedev is traveling with a large Russian government delegation and Russian business executives. Morocco’s King Mohammed VI hosted a lunch in the prime minister’s honor.

He arrived in Morocco after a visit to Algeria, where he discussed oil prices and energy cooperation.
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The Italian government on Wednesday won two confidence votes on a fiercely contested electoral law that is likely to penalize the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement in next year’s national election.

The proposed voting system is backed by three of the country’s four largest parties, with the center-left government looking to rush it onto the statute books ahead of elections, which are due by May 2018.

Five-Star supporters protested in front of parliament as the Chamber of Deputies approved two confidence motions by a wide margin. A third such vote is scheduled for Thursday ahead of a final ballot in the lower house on the disputed bill.

Unlike the current rules, the new system would allow the formation of multi-party coalitions before the ballot, a factor likely to hurt 5-Star, which is topping most opinion polls and refuses to join alliances.

“They want to take away our right to choose,” said Nicola Zuppa, 45, who said he had paid 175 euros ($200) to travel from Padua in northern Italy to take part in the protest, which drew up to 2,000 people in the heart of Rome.

The use of multiple confidence motions allowed the ruling coalition to truncate discussion on the bill and sidestep dozens of planned secret votes on various amendments. The reform still needs the approval of the upper house Senate.

“If you allow the electoral rules to be changed again so that the scum of the country rises to the top yet again, it will be your children who pay the price,” 5-Star’s founder Beppe Grillo wrote on his blog on Wednesday.

Harmonization

President Sergio Mattarella, the only figure with the power to dissolve parliament, has called for new voting rules because the current system is very different for the upper and lower houses, meaning it could throw up conflicting majorities.

All previous attempts to harmonize the rules have failed, most recently in June when dissident deputies used a secret vote to upend part of the proposed legislation.

Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD) drafted the latest version, which is supported by right-wing parliamentary rivals Forza Italia (Go Italy!) and the Northern League. Five small parties are also backing the proposed law.

Five-Star estimates that the new rules could cost it up to 50 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and potentially scupper its chances of being the largest group in parliament after the vote.

Mattarella is expected to give the formation that gets the most seats the first crack at forming a government. The PD has denied trying to stymie the 5-Star’s chances.

“No one is preventing (5-Star) from making alliances if they want to,” said Ettore Rosato, the parliamentary party leader of the PD who has put his name to the reform. “If they don’t want to do them, they can continue to be an isolated party.”

Analysts say the new electoral system looks unlikely to throw up a clear parliamentary majority, with opinion polls showing the center-left, center-right and 5-Star splitting the vote three ways.

Such a result could lead to the creation of a grand coalition that would need to span the political divide.

($1 = 0.8452 euros)
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The European Union will not transfer a final tranche of loans worth 28 million euros ($33 million) to support Moldovan justice reforms as the authorities have not fulfilled the required conditions, the EU delegation to Moldova said Wednesday.

The European Union is the ex-Soviet nation’s largest external donor, but payments have been frozen or repeatedly delayed by slow reform progress and political upheaval.

“The EU has closely observed the reform process and noted that the Moldovan authorities showed insufficient commitment to reforming the justice sector,” the delegation said in an online statement.

“The Moldovan authorities have not fulfilled the EU’s conditions for receiving the last financial transfer under the justice reform program, which amounts to 28 million euros,” it said.

The disbursement of other EU funding, including a 100 million-euro ($117 million) macro-financial assistance package of loans and grants for 2017-18, has also been delayed.

Last week, Prime Minister Pavel Filip said Moldova would not receive any financing under the agreement this year.

New electoral law

The EU has said a basic precondition for the financial assistance is a respect for the democratic process and the rule of law.

Nevertheless, Moldova this year introduced a new electoral law that a pan-European rights body ruled could make the system more susceptible to undue influence by vested interests.

Moldova’s economy grew 4.1 percent last year, recovering from a contraction of 0.4 percent in 2015 due in part to an economic crisis in nearby Russia that hit exports and remittances from Moldovans working there.

The country, Europe’s poorest, has also been rocked by a scandal that saw the equivalent of an eighth of its gross domestic product stolen from three of its largest banks in 2012-14.

The World Bank and International Monetary Fund have forecast growth of between 4 and 4.5 percent in 2017.
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The standoff between Spain and Catalonia entered a new phase on Tuesday as Catalonia’s leader delayed by several weeks a formal declaration of independence from Spain.

The current political crisis could now take several paths.

Government response

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has called an emergency Cabinet meeting for Wednesday to decide the Spanish government’s response to the declaration. Rajoy had a meeting with his main rival, Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, late on Tuesday.

He could deploy the “nuclear option” — an article of the constitution which enables him to sack the regional government and call an election.            

Before resorting to this option, which has never been used, Rajoy’s government could call a parliamentary vote on whether to try to persuade Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont to abandon the

independence drive.

Rajoy is also scheduled to speak at an extraordinary session of the Spanish parliament at 4 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).

Whichever way he turns, Rajoy is likely to face criticism, either for clamping down too fiercely or for not pushing a hard enough line against separatism.

Another possibility is that the judiciary steps in, with the public prosecutor calling Puigdemont and other politicians to Madrid to testify.

Dialogue

A genuine dialogue between the Spanish and Catalan authorities to resolve the standoff remains highly unlikely.

Puigdemont and other regional politicians signed a document on Tuesday proclaiming “full sovereignty” for Catalonia, but it was unclear whether the move had any legal value.

Puigdemont said he was suspending the effects of a declaration of Catalan independence to allow time for dialogue.

But the central government immediately responded that any dialogue would have to take place “within the law” and said Puigdemont did not have the right to demand talks.

Meanwhile, far-left group CUP said the ball was in the Madrid government’s court and Rajoy should be the one taking a step in their direction.

Formal declaration of independence

Tuesday’s declaration was largely symbolic because it was not formally endorsed by the regional parliament.

The anti-capitalist Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), whose influence is disproportionate to its small size, insists a vote should take place, as stated in the Catalan law.

While it has for now maintained its support for the regional government, it said it had set a one-month deadline for talks.

If talks fail to happen, the CUP and another pro-independence party, Junts pel Si, are likely to ask the Catalan parliament to formally endorse Tuesday’s declaration of independence.

This declaration would be immediately blocked by Spain’s constitutional court and force the Spanish government to step up further its legal and political response to the crisis.

Regional election

If talks do not happen and a declaration of independence is not put to a vote in the Catalan parliament, the CUP could withdraw its support, triggering a regional election.

This election could also be called by Puigdemont himself to back up his weakened position or by the Madrid government if it considers Puigdemont and the Catalan authorities have gone too far, for instance if they seek a formal declaration of independence in the regional parliament.

 
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The United States says it is “very disappointed” by the Turkish government’s arrest of two local staffers of the American Consulate, as diplomatic tensions between the two countries ramp up following the bilateral suspension of all nonimmigrant visa services.

Last week, for the second time this year, Turkish authorities arrested a local staff member of the U.S. diplomatic mission. U.S. Ambassador John Bass later announced a temporary halt to all nonimmigrant visa applications. Turkey retaliated by announcing its own suspension of visa services in the United States.

On Tuesday, the State Department confirmed that Turkish authorities had summoned a third U.S. Embassy staff member over the weekend. That staff member has not been formally arrested.

“These actions are deeply disturbing to us,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said during Tuesday’s briefing.

Nauert also rejected suggestions that Bass had acted unilaterally in suspending visa services in the U.S. Embassy and consulates throughout Turkey.

“Our ambassadors tend to not do things unilaterally,” said Nauert. “This was coordinated with the State Department. It was coordinated with the White House and coordinated with the embassy.”

Officials say U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Saturday. Undersecretary of State Tom Shannon also spoke to his Turkish counterpart prior to the announcement that the U.S. government would suspend nonimmigrant visa services at the U.S. Embassy and consulates in Turkey.

Bass said the suspension of nonimmigration visa service would minimize the number of visitors to U.S. Embassy and consulates in Turkey, while Washington assesses Ankara’s commitment to the security of American diplomatic facilities and personnel.

Erdogan blames U.S. envoy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday blamed Bass for the diplomatic crisis, saying Turkish officials would boycott farewell meetings with Bass, who is due to leave Ankara soon to take up a position in Kabul as U.S. envoy to Afghanistan.

“An ambassador in Ankara taking decisions and saying he is doing so in the name of his government is strange,” said Erdogan.

Erdogan also accused “agents” of infiltrating U.S. missions.

“No state would allow such spies that pose an internal threat,” Erdogan said Tuesday alongside Serbia’s president in Belgrade.

The dispute has plunged already fragile relations between the two NATO allies to a new low after months of tension linked to the conflict in Syria, last year’s failed military coup in Turkey, and U.S. court cases against Turkish officials.

“I think right now the domestic situation is very prone to anti-Americanism, and he [Erdogan] is playing on that,” Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute for Turkish studies, told VOA on Tuesday.

Extradition effort

Relations between Washington and Ankara have been troubled by disputes over U.S. support for Kurdish fighters in Syria and Turkey’s unsuccessful request for the extradition of U.S.-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, whose followers were blamed by the Turkish government for last year’s coup attempt.

The Turkish government has rounded up about 200,000 people, accusing them of not only stirring up the coup effort but also supporting the Gulen movement.

U.S. courts have also indicted a Turkish banker and a former minister for conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions on Iran, as well as 15 of Erdogan’s security guards for attacking peaceful protesters during his visit to Washington in May.

It is “definitely a sign of deteriorating relations,” Daniel Serwer of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies told VOA. “Both sides need to stop escalating and start talking.”

Arrest of consulate employee

Last week, Turkey arrested Metin Topuz, a U.S. consulate employee and a Turkish national, accusing him of having regular communication with alleged leading members of what Turkey has deemed a terrorist network blamed for the failed coup against Erdogan last year.

Washington dismissed the allegations, saying it has been unable to determine why the arrest occurred or what evidence exists against the employee.

“The employee works in an office devoted to strengthening law enforcement cooperation with Turkish authorities and ensuring the security of Americans and Turkish citizens,” said Nauert, questioning Ankara’s motivation for the arrest.

“What’s going on here? What are they trying to accomplish by this behavior toward our locally employed staff?” the State Department spokeswoman asked.

Bass, the U.S. ambassador, said in a video statement on October 9 that the suspension of visa services was not a “visa ban” on Turkish citizens, but a suspension of the consideration of new visa applications.

Turkish applicants told VOA’s Turkish service that upon going to the U.S. Embassy and consulates for their appointments, they were simply given a piece of paper instructing them to call a phone number for more information.

Omer Yavuz came from Bursa to the U.S. Consulate in Istanbul for a visa appointment that was postponed to this week. Instead of having an interview, he was given a piece of paper with a phone number on it.

“I’ve been calling the number several times since this morning but couldn’t reach anyone. No one is giving any complete information. I came here today because I’ve read procedures would continue for approved visa applications. But I don’t know what would happen,” Yavuz said.

He said he probably needed to cancel plans to visit his cousin in Houston.

VOA’s Turkish service and Esha Sarai contributed to this report.
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The European Union is seeking to reopen its embassy in Libya pending security conditions, officials said on Tuesday, offering further political support for the Tripoli government struggling to establish control.

EU leaders will announce at their summit in Brussels on Oct. 19-20 that they “encourage work underway to rapidly establish a permanent EU presence in Libya”, according to their draft joint statement seen by Reuters.

But the statement makes clear no such move is imminent as it would be conditional on improving the security situation on the ground.

The EU moved its mission to neighboring Tunisia in mid-2014 as security worsened in Libya amid escalating fighting between rival factions since the 2011 fall of longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi, ousted by rebels during a NATO bombing campaign.

Of 28 EU states, only Italy, Libya’s former colonial master and still the most influential European state on the ground, has an embassy in the country, where the United Nations has officially recognized the government of Fayez Seraj.

The EU has also engaged increasingly with Seraj, especially as it sought Libya’s help in curbing the flow of African refugees and migrants, hundreds of thousands of whom have been boarding smugglers’ boats on the coast of the lawless state to cross the Mediterranean for Europe.

The bloc has financed, equipped and trained Libya’s border and coast guards, despite rights groups sounding alarm over grave abuses refugees and migrants suffer in Libya.
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Will the collapse of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and the ending of the terror group’s caliphate make much difference when it comes to the recruitment and radicalization of Europeans or reducing “lone wolf” attacks?

With U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces close to finishing off IS in Raqqa, the terror group’s de facto capital in Syria, the question is becoming more pertinent.  But French and Belgian officials don’t believe the killings will stop in Europe, at least not in the foreseeable future.

Analysts say the caliphate was useful in the marketing of IS and attracting foreign recruits, as well as allowing the group to differentiate itself from rival al-Qaida, which opposed the setting up of an Islamic state and ridiculed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s self-appointment as caliph.  Now one of the only ways for the terror group to remain relevant and to try to continue to outshine its jihadist competitor al-Qaida is to strike the West as frequently as it can, experts say.

Last month, al-Baghdadi broke an 11-month public silence by releasing an audio-tape mocking the United States, calling on jihadists to rally against the Syrian regime and insisting IS “remains” despite its rapid loss of territory.  He echoed the message of the late IS propaganda chief Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, who declared that holding territory mattered less than the will to fight.

But much of al-Baghdadi’s focus was on celebrating attacks on the West, saying, “America, Europe and Russia are living in a state of terror.”

Speaking in August, after IS had been ousted from the Iraqi city of Mosul and as Kurdish-dominated forces started their assault on Raqqa, French President Emmanuel Macron said the fight against Islamic terrorism is France’s “top priority” and would remain so for some time.

French and Belgian officials say IS is highly innovative and despite efforts to reduce the group’s “virtual footprint” it is still able to disseminate propaganda, which it carefully calibrates to better mobilize followers, testing new ideas as it shapes narratives for whatever it considers tactically appropriate.

Researcher Charlie Winter says for IS the media war has always been as important as physical victories in Syria and Iraq.

In a paper for the International Center for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence, a research center based in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, Winter noted for IS “propaganda production and dissemination is at times considered to be even more important than military jihad.”

He added, “The Islamic State sustainably incites activism, whether from operatives or online volunteers, by venerating information warfare in a manner unparalleled by any other Salafi-Jihadist actor.”

Even with the loss of most of its territory IS can still wage information warfare, recruit and incite.  Winter says, “The international community must be equally as creative and strategic-minded in its approach towards counter-communications.

‘Deadly social model’

The overall problem of radicalization remains the same today as it did before IS’s battlefield defeats, officials and analysts warn.  Former French prime minister Manuel Valls has dubbed radicalization “a deadly social model.”

France isn’t alone in struggling to understand radicalization and to develop effective ways to counter it.  Sixteen years after the 9/11 attacks and Western governments are still unclear about the mechanics of radicalization and why some embrace the radical jihadist vision and do so to the point of staging or participating in murderous attacks.

Sociologist Farhad Khosrokhavar, a professor at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (School for Advanced Studies of Social Sciences) in Paris, worries radicalization is still seen by governments too much as purely a national security challenge.  Governments, he has argued, fail to study enough the long-term effects of stigmatization, social exclusion and delinquency.  The role of the internet and closed social-media groups in forming jihadist allegiances and creating the cult of what he calls the “negative hero” is only just beginning to be understood.

Psychological factors are also crucial.  At a conference in London last year, Khosrokhavar highlighted how a substantial number of jihadist attackers in the West had been diagnosed with depression or other mental illnesses.

But efforts to deepen understanding of radicalization often meet resistance from political leaders, especially when they are facing public clamor to stop terror attacks.  Valls is famous for once saying he was tired of “social, sociological, and cultural excuses” to explain jihad.  “To explain is to excuse,” he said.

France, which since 2015 has been battered by a series of attacks with the loss of over 240 lives, has more than 350 Islamic extremists locked up in French prisons, nearly 6,000 militants are under police surveillance and a further 17,000 classified as potential threats.  Belgium’s numbers aren’t as high, but the relatively small country occupies an outsized role when it comes to European jihadism. Belgium has contributed per capita more fighters to IS and other jihadist groups in the Levant than any other European country.

Both countries have grappled with shaping de-radicalization programs that work. It was only two years ago that France launched efforts to try to stop the radicalization of disaffected youth, much later than several other European nations.  But its efforts have been troubled and a plan to open 13 de-radicalization centers, one in each of France’s 13 regions, has fallen by the wayside after the first experimental center was closed down earlier this year amid arguments over methods.

 
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Pressure is building on Catalonia’s hardline secessionist leaders, from moderates and business leaders in the restive north-east Spanish region, to pull back from the brink and to refrain from issuing a declaration of independence later on Tuesday.

Carles Puigdemont, the region’s president, and other secessionist leaders have vowed to announce a breakaway state after last week’s controversial plebiscite, which was declared illegal by the government and courts in Madrid.

But an exodus of businesses, including two of Spain’s leading banks, a major telecommunications company and a construction group, as well as a massive weekend protest in Barcelona by 350,000 Catalans opposed to separation, is starting to take its toll among moderates, who are alarmed at the prospects of economic collapse and civil unrest.

They are calling for a pause and for more efforts to open up negotiations with the center-right government of Mariano Rajoy, who is under pressure from his party to maintain a strong line with the secessionists. Barcelona’s mayor, Ada Colau, argued Monday night against declaring independence, saying it would threaten Catalonia’s “social cohesion.”

She called for urgent negotiations, warning that Spain faced its “greatest institutional crisis” since its return to democracy following the death of Gen. Francisco Franco in 1975. “We cannot allow ourselves to jeopardize either social cohesion or Catalan institutions,” she said.

She added: “The results of 1 October cannot be used as a guarantee for the declaration of independence. But they do represent an opportunity to open dialogue and international mediation.”

The secessionists’ coalition, Together For Yes, commands only a thin majority in Catalonia’s regional government and it isn’t clear whether a majority will approve an independence declaration. The far-left Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) is urging Puigdemont to honor the result of the disputed referendum, pointing out that under the referendum law the regional parliament passed ahead of the plebiscite, the legislature pledged to do so.

Puigdemont is set to reveal his plans later Tuesday in an address to the regional parliament — his first comments before the legislature since the referendum a week ago that saw an overwhelming majority of Catalans vote for secession. The turnout, though, was under 50 percent and opinion polls have suggested consistently that more Catalans want to stay with Spain than breakaway.

He had originally promised to make a unilateral declaration of independence within 48 hours of a victory for the secessionist campaign, but held off doing so, calling instead for talks with the Madrid government.

But even senior members of Puigdemont’s own more moderate Catalan European Democratic Party are urging caution, including Ramon Tremosa, a member of the European Parliament. He is counseling following Slovenia’s strategy when it broke away from the then Yugoslavia. Slovenia announced secession but suspended implementation pending negotiations with its Yugoslav neighbors and European powers.

“Nobody can recognize internationally an independence that has not been achieved,” he said. “We know from the experience of Slovenia and other countries that this experience may take weeks or months,” he added.

But inching Catalonia closer to breaking away may well invite as firm a response from Madrid as an open declaration of independence. Spanish prime minister Rajoy is expected by analysts to invoke Article 155 of the constitution, which allows the central government to take control of an autonomous region, if it fails to “fulfill the obligations imposed upon it by the constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain.”

Article 155 has never been invoked before and it risks angering even more secessionist Catalans, who are still furious at the Spanish national police’s efforts to disrupt the October 1 referendum, which saw officers raiding polling stations, beating voters and firing rubber bullets at crowds. Thousands of Guardia Civil and national police who were deployed by Madrid to stop the vote have remained in the region.

At the weekend Rajoy warned he would do everything in his power to prevent Catalonia from breaking away. In an interview with Spain’s El País newspaper. “We are going to prevent independence from occurring… I can tell you with absolute frankness that it will not happen,” he said.

Pedro Sánchez, leader of the opposition Socialists, said Monday his party will support the government against any unilateral attempt to dismember the country.

How Catalonia’s own regional police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra, responds in the coming days, either to a declaration of independence or imposition of direct rule, remains unclear. The force was accused of behaving passively when it came to shuttering polling stations with national police unions accusing it of “clear disobedience.”

The force’s commander, Josep Lluís Trapero, is being investigated for sedition by Spain’s national court.

 
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The leader of Spain’s Catalonia region is due to address members of the regional parliament Tuesday, while the government in Madrid worries Catalan representatives will vote for a unilateral declaration of independence.

Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont did not reveal ahead of time what his message would be Tuesday.

Political leaders, both domestically and internationally, urged Catalan leaders on Monday to back down to ease growing tensions in the country.

Major speaks out

Barcelona’s mayor was the latest to speak out against a declaration of independence, saying this would put “social cohesion” at risk. Ada Colau called on all sides to de-escalate tensions to solve “the most severe institutional crisis since the re-establishment of democracy in Spain.”

The head of Spain’s main opposition party, Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, also called for Catalan leaders to drop an attempt to declare independence, saying “a universal declaration of independence doesn’t have a place in a state ruled by law.”

Germany and France also weighed in Monday against a split. German Chancellor Angela Merkel “affirmed her backing for the unity of Spain,” but also encouraged dialogue, according to her spokesman.

France said it would not recognize Catalonia if the region declared independence. “This crisis needs to be resolved through dialogue at all levels of Spanish politics,” France’s European affairs minister Nathalie Loiseau said.

Tensions have grown in Spain since last week when Catalonia held a regional vote for independence, an election deemed illegal by Madrid. Police cracked down on the vote, firing rubber bullets and storming crowds to disrupt the voting, leading to hundreds of injuries.

Huge support at the polls

Catalan leaders say 90 percent of those who went to the polls voted to break with Spain. However, opponents of the referendum say the vote did not show the true will of the region because those who want to stay in Spain mainly boycotted the polls.

Police say about 350,000 demonstrators attended an anti-independence protest on Sunday.

On Saturday, thousands of protesters gathered at rallies in Barcelona, Madrid and other Spanish cities to demand dialogue to end the dispute.

Banks, businesses may move

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he would not rule out using constitutional powers to take away Catalonia’s autonomous status if the region declares independence.

In an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Pais published Sunday, Rajoy said that he will consider employing any measure “allowed by the law” to stop the region’s separatists.

The crisis has prompted several major banks and businesses to announce they will move their headquarters out of Catalonia to other parts of Spain so they can be sure they will remain in the European Union common market.

Catalonia, a northeastern region in Spain, has its own language and cultural traditions. It is home to 7.5 million people and accounts for about a fifth of Spain’s economy.
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NATO is set to launch a new multinational force in Romania on Monday to counter Russia along its eastern flank and to check a growing Russian presence in the Black Sea following the Kremlin’s 2014 seizure of Crimea.

Initially a small force relying on troops from 10 NATO countries including Italy and Canada, as well as Romania, the land, air and sea deployments will complement about 900 U.S. troops already in place.

“Our purpose is peace, not war,” Romanian President Klaus Iohannis told the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Bucharest. “We are not a threat for Russia. But we need dialogue from a strong position of defense and discouragement.”

Russia accuses NATO of trying to encircle it and threatening stability in Eastern Europe, which NATO denies. Around the Black Sea, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are NATO members while Georgia and Ukraine aspire to join.

The NATO force aims to develop its allied presence in the Black Sea region, rich in oil and gas, without escalating tensions, as it seeks to counter Russia’s own plans to create what military analysts say is a “buffer zone.”

The 2008 Russian operation to put troops in Georgia’s South Ossetia’s region, its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine since 2014 and its annexation of Crimea have raised the stakes, with all sides warning of a new, Cold-War style scenario.

Details of the new force size were unclear. Based inland at a base near the southern Romanian city of Craiova, the land component of the force involves a brigade-size multinational NATO force, typically some 3,000 to 4,000 troops, but the contribution of non-Romanian troops is modest.

Aside from Romania, Poland is the biggest troop contributor.

Bulgaria, Italy and Portugal will train regularly with the force in Craiova, and Germany is also expected to contribute.

In addition to existing NATO Black Sea naval patrols, a maritime presence will include more allied visits to Romanian and Bulgarian ports, training and exercises.

NATO air forces will also be limited at first, but Britain is deploying fighter planes to Romania. Canada is already patrolling Romanian air space, along with national pilots. Italy is patrolling Bulgarian air space.

“It sends a signal of NATO’s resolve,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who will visit the troops later Monday, stressing that NATO also had a 40,000-strong response force in case of a conflict.

‘West Berlin’ model

Some Eastern Europeans want NATO’s new ballistic missile defense shield, which includes a site in Romania, to be part of NATO’s eastern posture vis-a-vis Russia.

“The Aegis Ashore system would add another level of deterrence,” said Maciej Kowalski, an analyst at the Polish Casimir Pulaski Foundation, referring to the U.S.-built system. NATO says the system is to intercept any Iranian rockets.

As in the Baltics and Poland, where the U.S.-led alliance has some 4,000 troops, NATO says the relatively light multinational model recalls allied support for West Berlin in the 1950s, when British, French and U.S. forces ensured the Soviet Union could not control all Berlin.

Under NATO’s founding treaty, an attack on one ally is an attack on all, meaning all 28 NATO nations would be required to respond in the case of any potential Russian aggression.

While months in planning, the establishment of the force comes as Russia winds down its biggest war games since 2013.

The Zapad, or West, games were a show of its latest weaponry and its ability to quickly mass soldiers on NATO’s borders.

The enhanced NATO presence in Romania and Bulgaria marks a diplomatic success for Bucharest, which gained greater persuasive power because it is set to reach a NATO goal of spending 2 percent of economic output on defense this year, a priority for U.S. President Donald Trump.

Romania pushed for bigger NATO naval presence on the Black Sea for over a year, but found its neighbor Bulgaria wary of provoking Russia. Turkey only supports limited NATO reinforcements, concerned about breaking international rules limiting the scale of patrols in the Black Sea.

Turkey has played down the extent of Russia’s militarization of Crimea, which NATO says involves a laying of surface-to-air missiles and communications jamming equipment.
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