A gap is widening between the Trump administration and European allies over the future of President Bashar al-Assad and how to end the six-year war in Syria.

While U.S. officials have shifted the focus away from Assad having to relinquish power, European leaders remain adamant he has no future as ruler of Syria. His departure, they say, remains a crucial part of any solution to a conflict that has left an estimated 470,000 dead.

Following Tuesday’s toxic gas attack on a town in northern Syria, the worst chemical weapons attack in the war since mid-2013, European leaders are intensifying their rhetoric. On Tuesday, Britain’s Theresa May called “on all the third parties involved to ensure that we have a transition away from Assad.”

Photo Gallery: Aftermath of gas attack on  Khan Sheikhoun

European politicians gathered for an international conference hosted by the European Union in Brussels on Syria drew a link between what seems to be the use of a more deadly nerve agent than seen in previous claimed chemical weapons attacks, and the Trump administration’s shift on Syria.

Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Assad’s future was up to the Syrian people to decide, while the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said removing him was no longer a Washington priority.

On Monday, just hours before the gas attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun, Haley hardened her rhetoric, referring to the Syrian leader as a “war criminal” guilty of “disgusting” actions against his people.” She said Syrians “don’t want Assad anymore.”

In the wake of the chemical weapons attack, U.S. officials in Washington did not publicly indicate any likely shift in administration policy. The White House and U.S. State Department condemned the attack as “heinous,” dubbing it a likely war crime.

But officials placed the emphasis on the need for Russia and Iran, Assad backers, to do something. Tuesday, the White House press secretary didn’t outline any punitive steps in response to an attack the administration says was carried out by the Assad regime.

Russian, Iranian influence

Tillerson demanded Tuesday that Moscow and Tehran “exercise their influence over the Syrian regime and to guarantee this sort of horrific attack never happens again.” He added that “Russia and Iran also bear great moral responsibility for these deaths.”

On Wednesday, Moscow reiterated its denial the Assad regime was responsible for the attack that has left close to 100 dead, according to local activists, and more than 400 injured. Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement it believed a rebel “terrorist warehouse” was hit by a conventional airstrike from Syria’s military, causing the release of “toxic substances.”

The Defense Ministry claimed chemical weapons were being stored for use in neighboring Iraq. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konoshenkov said,“On the territory of the depot there were workshops, which produced chemical warfare munitions.”

British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said “all the evidence” he had seen in relation to the incident “suggests this was the Assad regime who did it in the full knowledge they were using illegal weapons in a barbaric attack on their own people.”

Johnson added he did “not see how a government like that can continue to have any kind of legitimate administration over the people of Syria.”

Focus on Assad

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said, “There is one thing which cannot happen, that a dictator who committed horrible crimes in the region remains untouched.”

The European Union’s foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini also said she could see no way Assad can remain as Syria’s ruler. “It seems completely unrealistic to believe that the future of Syria will be exactly the same as it used to be in the past,” she told reporters in Brussels.

But it is unclear what the Europeans can or would be willing to do without U.S. support, according to analysts.

They note that European influence on shaping international policy on the Syrian conflict is waning, despite the fact Europe is the largest provider of humanitarian aid in Syria. This week’s EU co-hosted international conference on humanitarian assistance to Syria has attracted minimal participation from the United States, Russia and Turkey.

Instead of sending its foreign minister, Russia is only represented at the gathering by its EU ambassador, Vladimir Chizhov. Washington has sent the State Department’s under-secretary for political affairs, Thomas Shannon. That contrasts with last year when then Secretary of State John Kerry attended.

Damascus calculation

Analyst Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute in Washington, says he believes Damascus has taken note of the Trump administration’s policy shift when it comes to Assad’s future and that may have shaped the decision behind launching Tuesday’s attack.

“Assad also knows full well that the U.S. is increasingly distancing itself from any consideration of intervention in Syria, so what has Assad got to lose?” he argued. “If all he suffers is a few days of international condemnation, then he comes out of things just as secure as he was beforehand.”

 
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The European Union is determined to stick to a deal with Turkey to stem the flow of undocumented migrants into the bloc, European Council President Donald Tusk said on Tuesday.

Tusk, who met Bulgaria’s President Rumen Radev, welcomed Sofia’s efforts to boost security on its southeastern border with Turkey to prevent migrants from crossing. He said Brussels would provide additional financing if the situation worsened.

“We are determined to keep routes of illegal migration in this region closed,” Tusk told reporters. “We remain committed to the full implementation of the EU-Turkey statement. The EU is honoring its commitments, just like we expect Turkey to continue keeping its part of the deal.”

The EU-Ankara agreement came into force in March 2016 after more than a million refugees and migrants from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond reached Europe in 2015, many crossing to Greek islands from Turkey.

“Should further difficulties arise on Bulgaria’s borders, the EU has already planned emergency funding, and stands ready to react quickly in support of Bulgaria,” Tusk said.

Turkey has said it may cancel the migrant readmission agreement, under which it takes back people who enter Greece through irregular routes. It was angered after several EU states prevented Turkish politicians from holding rallies to drum up support for plans to give President Tayyip Erdogan new powers in a referendum.

Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member, expressed concern about a possible new migrant influx given that Turkey-EU tensions are running high.

“It is extremely important for us to develop good neighborly relations with Turkey,” Radev said. “At the same time, rising tensions between the EU and Turkey create the greatest risk for Bulgaria.”
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The referendum in Turkey to extend President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s powers is a couple of weeks away, and polls indicate the outcome remains too close to call. The “No” campaign, having little access to mainstream media, is increasingly turning to social media, and human rights groups accuse prosecutors of targeting those who adopt such a strategy.

Turkish law student Ali Gul’s video on why to vote “No” highlights, in a humorous way, the dangers of concentrating too much power in one person’s hands. It was an instant hit on social media. At the end of the video, Gul rhetorically asked, “Will I get arrested if this video is popular?”

Within days of its success, Gul issued another video, and he said he knew he would be arrested for making it.

Youth ‘deserve freedom’

“I am now going to the prosecutor to give a statement,” he said. “I will probably be arrested after that.  But it is not important, I am not afraid. The children and youth of this nation deserve freedom and happiness — and not fear, imprisonment and death.”

Gul was indeed arrested and jailed — but not for the video. He was detained instead for tweets posted two years ago that were deemed insulting to the president, a crime that carries three years in jail. Gul denied writing them, but his attorneys warned that he was destined to remain in pretrial detention for many months.

Turkey researcher Emma Sinclair Webb of U.S. based Human Rights Watch said there appears to be a systematic campaign of intimidation against “No” campaigners on social media.

“I think actually clamping down on individuals, making them a target for punitive measures pre-referendum because they have had a prominent voice in the ‘No’ campaign, is all about creating a chilling effect which will give the message loud and clear to the general public that you are not welcome to discuss what is at stake in the referendum and you are not welcome to publicly voice opposition of it,” she said.

Scores of arrests, closures

Meanwhile, independent mainstream media have been all but crushed. Under emergency rule, introduced after July’s failed coup, more than 150 journalists have been jailed and 170 media outlets closed, all critical of the government. The government claims the prosecutions and closures are all related to terrorist actions and coup plotting.

Most news TV channels broadcast at least three or four campaign speeches a day in support of a “Yes” vote on the presidential powers issue, while the “No” campaign is all but invisible, accounting for only 10 percent of coverage.

For the “No” campaign, social media have become vital, but with more than 2,500 prosecutions for insulting the president in the past six months, social media postings are not without risks.  

Observers warn such pressure is likely to intensify as the referendum campaign ends.
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Turkish gold imports rose 17-fold to 28.2 tons in March, as Turks looking to hedge currency risk ahead of a referendum in two weeks time followed President Tayyip Erdogan’s calls to buy gold instead of dollars.

After the sharpest falls in the Turkish lira since the 2008 financial crisis last November, Erdogan called on Turks to sell dollars and buy lira or gold to prop up the local currency. Gold imports have been rising year-on-year ever since.

“People have started opting for gold rather than foreign currencies,” said Mehmet Ali Yildirimturk, a gold specialist in Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, adding that a moderate recovery in the lira had also made gold more affordable again.

Gold imports to Turkey rose almost eightfold to 36.7 tons in December after Erdogan’s calls, their highest monthly level in just over two years, according to data from the Precious Mines and Metals Markets of the Istanbul bourse.

Prices in Turkey surged from 132 lira ($36) for 24-carat gold in January to 153 lira in February. On Tuesday, gold prices were around 148 liras.

Gold is seen as a safe place to park assets during times of uncertainty. Turkey holds a referendum on April 16 on constitutional changes which would significantly boost Erdogan’s powers, with polls suggesting a tight race.

($1 = 3.6664 liras)
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Russian authorities are searching for those responsible for a blast that tore through a St. Petersburg subway car Monday, killing 11 people and injuring many others. Investigators are looking into terrorism as a possible cause though no group has yet claimed responsibility.
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The presidents of Russia and Belarus said on Monday they had resolved all disputes over energy, signaling a rapprochement at a time when both leaders are grappling with street protests and the threat of new Western sanctions hangs over Minsk.

At a meeting in St. Petersburg, held while the Russian city was reeling from a deadly bombing on a metro train, Russia agreed to refinance Belarus’ debt while Belarus will pay back more than $720 million in arrears for gas supplies.

According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, Russia will also renew oil supplies to Belarus of 24 million tons a year and Russia’s Gazprom will give Belarus discounts on gas supplies in 2018 and 2019.

It is an abrupt departure from their recent squabbles and suggests Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko is moving his country back towards Moscow’s orbit after a period of courting closer ties with the West.

“Today we have no differences remaining. We will move ahead, we will strengthen our relations within the framework of the union state,” President Vladimir Putin said at a joint news conference.

Putin said their two governments would implement the two leaders’ agreement within the next 10 days, and that a “road map” had been agreed for energy cooperation up to 2020.

Russia and Belarus are traditional allies but relations became strained after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014, a move Lukashenko described as a “bad precedent.”

Russia cut the subsidies it uses to keep its one-time Soviet vassal afloat, worsening an economic downturn in Belarus that fueled a wave of unrest against Lukashenko, who has ruled the ex-Soviet state for nearly a quarter of a century.

Lukashenko’s blunt suppression of street demonstrations has threatened to undo his efforts to court the West and risks the return of European Union sanctions that were mostly lifted just over a year ago.

The Russian authorities have also cracked down on street protests that broke out in March against corruption.

“We see what’s happening around us, and we just want to preserve the stability of Russia and Belarus,” said Lukashenko.

“There are too few quiet, calm spots on the planet still left. So we agreed on joint measures to preserve the security of our states.”

At least 10 people were killed and more than 20 were injured when an explosion tore through a train carriage in a St. Petersburg metro tunnel in what authorities called a probable terrorist attack.
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Bulgaria’s largest party, the center-right GERB, expects to form a government with three nationalist parties by late April and return Boiko Boriskov to power as prime minister, a senior party official said on Monday.

Borisov’s GERB won 95 seats in the general election on March 26, beating its leftist Socialist rivals, but it failed to gain an outright 121-seat majority in parliament.

His resignation late last year triggered the early election.

GERB has told the third-placed United Patriots (UP), a nationalist alliance of three parties, that the prime minister’s post will not be subject of their coalition negotiations.

“The prime minister of the next government that will be formed I suppose by the end of this month … will be Boiko Borisov”, said Vladislav Goranov, an MP and member of GERB’s political negotiating team. “There’s no doubt about that.”

Goranov’s comments to reporters came after one of the nationalist leaders had suggested that Borisov, 57, should not lead the next government.

Borisov quit as premier after a GERB-backed candidate lost a presidential election in November to Rumen Radev, a Russia-friendly ally of the Socialists. Bulgaria is currently being run by a caretaker administration.

The UP alliance campaigned to boost low living standards and double the minimum monthly state pensions, now at 160 levs ($87.25) – the lowest in the European Union.

Analysts say such demands, coupled with GERB’s plans to double teachers’ wages within four years, may boost public spending and pose risks to Bulgaria’s currency peg to the euro.

But Goranov, a former finance minister likely to get the same post in the next government, told reporters he was not worried for state coffers.

A coalition with the nationalists would have just one seat above the majority threshold of 121 seats and Goranov said GERB would also seek support of smaller, populist grouping of businessman Veselin Mareshki.

Bulgaria’s polls suggested the country would continue with its fiscal and economic policies but was unlikely to break a pattern of unstable governments that have hindered structural reforms, Fitch rating agency said last week.

The timing for inter-party negotiations has yet to be set.

GERB has not ruled out leading a minority government, but Goranov called such an option “extreme.”

(1$= 1.8338 leva)
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The governing body of track and field has been hacked by Fancy Bears, the group that previously attacked the World Anti-Doping Agency.

The IAAF said Monday it believes the hack “has compromised athletes’ Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) applications stored on IAAF servers” during an unauthorized remote access to its network on February 21.

TUEs are permissions for athletes to take substances that would normally be banned, and are used by athletes around the world.

“Our first priority is to the athletes who have provided the IAAF with information that they believed would be secure and confidential,” IAAF President Sebastian Coe said. “They have our sincerest apologies and our total commitment to continue to do everything in our power to remedy the situation.”

The IAAF said it had been in contact with athletes who have applied for TUEs since 2012.

Context Information Security, a British security company, said in a statement released by the IAAF that it discovered the attack.

“In January 2017, the IAAF contacted Context Information Security to conduct a proactive and thorough technical investigation across its systems, which led to the discovery of a sophisticated intrusion,” the company said. “Throughout the investigation, the IAAF have understood the importance and impact of the attack and have provided us comprehensive assistance.”

WADA has previously said Fancy Bears originate from Russia, citing information from law enforcement agencies.

Russian officials have denied any links with Fancy Bears, but have praised the group’s previous publications, which they say undermined Western countries’ criticism of widespread use of banned substances by Russians. The IAAF banned Russia’s team from competing internationally in 2015 after investigations by WADA found evidence of state-sponsored doping.

Fancy Bears began posting medical records of Olympians online last year, with U.S. and British athletes making up a large proportion of those targeted. Only selected records were released, and no Russians with TUEs were named, even though records show dozens of TUEs had been granted there in recent years.

As of Monday, Fancy Bears’ website contained no mention of IAAF information.
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At least 10 people have been killed in an explosion in a metro station in the Russian city of St. Petersburg.

Russian media reported that the blast took place at the Sennaya Square metro station in the city’s center.

President Vladimir Putin arrived in St. Petersburg on Monday to speak at an annual media forum sponsored by a Kremlin-backed political movement.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin was informed about the explosion.
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Babies cry more in Britain, Canada, Italy and Netherlands than in other countries, while newborns in Denmark, Germany and Japan cry and fuss the least, researchers said on Monday.

In research looking at how much babies around the world cry in their first three months, psychologists from Britain have created the first universal charts for normal amounts of crying during that period.

“Babies are already very different in how much they cry in the first weeks of life,” said Dieter Wolker, who led the study at Warwick University.

“We may learn more from looking at cultures where there is less crying — [including] whether this may be due to parenting or other factors relating to pregnancy experiences or genetics.”

The highest levels of colic — defined as crying more than three hours a day for at least three days a week — were found in babies in Britain, Canada and Italy, while the lowest colic rates were found in Denmark and Germany.

On average, the study found, babies cry for around two hours a day in the first two weeks. They then cry a little more in the following few weeks until they peak at around two hours 15 minutes a day at six weeks. This then reduces to an average of one hour 10 minutes by the time they are 12 weeks old.

But there are wide variations, with some babies crying as little as 30 minutes a day, and others more than five hours.

The research, published in the Journal of Pediatrics, was a meta-analysis of studies covering some 8,700 babies in countries including Germany, Denmark, Japan, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands and Britain.

Wolker said the new crying chart would help health workers reassure parents whether their baby is crying within a normal range in the first three months, or may need extra support.

 
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France’s polling commission has issued a warning over a Russian news report suggesting conservative candidate Francois Fillon leads the race for the presidency — something which contradicts the findings of mainstream opinion pollsters.

The cautionary note from the watchdog on pre-election polling followed allegations in February by aides of centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron that he was a target of “fake news” put out by Russian media including the Sputnik news agency.

Macron takes a hard line on European Union sanctions imposed on Moscow over the Ukraine crisis, whereas Fillon has said they are totally ineffective, creating a “cold war” climate that needs to be reversed.

Almost all media in France are drawing on polls that have shown since mid-February that Fillon, a former prime minister, is trailing in third place behind Macron and far right leader Marine Le Pen for the April 23 first round. Third place would mean Fillon’s elimination from the May 7 runoff.

State-run Sputnik carried different findings in a report on March 29 under the headline: “2017 presidential elections: the return of Fillon at the head of the polls.”

It quoted Moscow-based Brand Analytics, an online audience research firm, as saying that its study based on an analysis of French social media put Fillon out in front.

In a statement, France’s polling commission said the study could not be described as representative of public opinion and Sputnik had improperly called it a “poll”, as defined by law in France.

“It is imperative that publication of this type of survey be treated with caution so that public opinion is aware of its non-representative nature,” it said.

Brand Analytics’ track record either for political polling or for commercial internet audience measurement outside of Russia and former Soviet territory is unknown.

Sputnik published an earlier online survey by the firm from mid-February which also showed Fillon with a strong lead over Macron and Le Pen at a time when other polls showed Macron’s candidacy beginning to surge with Fillon in third place.

Neither Sputnik in Moscow, nor the company, responded immediately to emailed requests for comment on Sunday.

US intelligence warns

Richard Burr, head of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee which is investigating the Russian hacking during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, said last week that the Kremlin was trying to interfere in the French vote.

The Kremlin denied in February that it was behind media and internet attacks on Macron’s campaign. Russia has a strong interest in the outcome of the French election since Macron has suggested imposing further sanctions on Moscow if it does not implement its side of a deal to resolve the crisis in Ukraine.

Fillon, once the frontrunner for the Elysee before he was hit by a scandal surrounding payments of public funds to his wife and children, dismissed as “fantasy” concerns of Russian interference in the election. Speaking last Friday, Fillon said he would seek a better balance in relations with a country that was nevertheless “dangerous.”

Richard Ferrand, the head of Macron’s En Marche! (Onwards!) party, said in February that Sputnik and another Russian state-run outlet Russia Today were spreading ‘fake news’ with the aim of swinging public opinion against Macron.

In February, Sputnik announced it would publish weekly French election polls using representative sampling from three mainstream polling firms — IFOP, Ipsos and OpinionWay — alongside an analysis of social media posts in France from Brand Analytics for which it did not disclose its survey methodology.

Separately, Sputnik carried a news report last Friday about Macron supporters being awarded state decorations when he had been a high-level functionary at the Elysee and economy minister in the Socialist government, suggesting this could amount to influence peddling.

It offered no proof that Macron had organized the decorations, which were sometimes awarded by other ministers. In several instances, it cited awards made by the economy ministry, without mentioning that Arnaud Montebourg, Macron’s predecessor, was minister at the time.

The Sputnik report contrasted Macron’s alleged action with a judicial inquiry into an award made when Fillon was prime minister to a billionaire friend who owned a cultural magazine where Fillon’s wife drew a salary.

 
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Greeted by tens of thousands of faithful, Pope Frances on Sunday visited Italy’s northern Emilia Romagna region that has largely rebuilt from pair of deadly quakes five years ago, an example meant to give hope to central Italy, which is still reeling from more devastating temblors last year.

Francis’ first stop was the quake-damaged Duomo cathedral of Carpi, where he laid a bouquet of white flowers at the foot of a statue of the Madonna inside. After years of restoration, the cathedral reopened just last weekend.

“There are those who remain buried in the rubble of life,” the pope said in his homily before an estimated 20,000 gathered in the piazza outside the cathedral for an open-air Mass. “And there are those, like you, who with the help of God rise from the rubble to rebuild.”

Another 50,000 people watched the Mass on large screens throughout the city of 70,000.

During his daylong visit, the pope also will meet with families who lost loved ones in the quake and hold a discussion with priests, nuns and seminarians.

The Emilia Romagna model of rebuilding after the magnitude-6.1 and magnitude-5.8 quakes that killed 28 people in 2012 has often been cited as exemplary. It included bringing together politicians, entrepreneurs and bishops to decide common priorities.

The papal visit was meant to give a sign of gratitude for the rebuilding, the archbishop of Carpi, Monsignor Francesco Cavina, told the Italian Bishops’ Conference television TV2000. But he said it’s also “a sign of hope that rebuilding is possible for the people of central Italy, who unfortunately suffered what we did much more dramatically.”

A magnitude-6.1 quake on Aug. 24 in Italy’s central regions of Umbria, Abruzzo and Marche killed nearly 300 people, toppled thousands of buildings including churches, historic buildings and museums, and rendered many town centers uninhabitable. It was followed by a series of quakes in October, including the strongest in Italy in nearly four decades at magnitude 6.6, that toppled and damaged a higher number of structures, but didn’t provoke further deaths since the most vulnerable areas had already been evacuated.

Authorities have estimated the damage from the 2016 central Italian quakes at more than 23.5 billion euros ($25 billion), compared with 13.5 billion euros from the 2012 Emilia Romagna temblors.
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Russian police arrested about two dozen protesters Sunday in Moscow, a week after more than 1,000 others were detained during a large-scale rally organized by a leading critic of President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian state news agency Tass reports that Sunday’s arrests were made while protesters tried to conduct unauthorized marches toward the Kremlin from two public squares in Moscow.

Police had blocked off Pushkin Square, a traditional gathering place for demonstrators. Authorities also blocked access to several Internet websites the government said promoted “a planned illegal anti-government protest” in or near Moscow’s Red Square.

The protests were organized by prominent Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny. He and hundreds of others anti-corruption demonstrators demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev were detained last week.

Some critics of the Kremlin portray Putin as an overseer of a corrupt government that has awarded select friends and associates with vast sums of wealth.

The protests are occurring a year before a Russian presidential election in which Putin is expected to seek a fourth term. Navalny would like to run against the heavily-favored Putin, despite a questionable conviction on fraud charges that would technically disqualify him.

Last week’s protests were the largest opposition rallies Russia has seen in several years.
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At least 18 people, including three children, were injured when a bonfire effigy exploded at a town carnival outside Paris, officials said Saturday.

Organizers had poured gasoline on a wooden figure of a man, preparing for a bonfire that normally concludes the annual town carnival in Villepinte, north of the capital. Emergency workers said the effigy exploded when it was ignited by remote control, showering chunks of burning wood and splinters onto a crowd of several hundred people.

Five of those injured were in serious condition, authorities said, but no one’s life was in danger. Most victims suffered burns.

Officials said there was no indication that the incident involved arson or terrorism, but the explosion and flames did cause momentary panic.
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Armenians vote Sunday in elections that will determine who guides the country through its planned transition to a parliamentary system of government next year.

Campaigns waged by by the nine parties and alliances seeking seats in parliament have focused mostly on the economic difficulties in the South Caucasus nation of 3 million.

Opinion polls point to a close race for the top spot between President Serzh Sarkisian’s ruling Republican Party of Armenia and a former coalition partner, the center-right Tsarukian Alliance led by pro-Russia tycoon Gagik Tarukian.

Under constitutional changes approved in a 2015 referendum, the Armenian prime minister’s office will become more powerful while the presidency is to become a largely ceremonial post elected by parliament.

Final term

Those changes are due to take place when Sarkisian’s second and final term ends in 2018. Critics charge that they were designed to allow him to stay in power beyond the presidency’s two-term limit.

Sarkisian denies that. But if the ruling party wins enough votes to control a parliamentary majority, either alone or in a coalition, he could continue to exercise executive power as prime minister.

He also could maintain clout by staying on as leader of his party, or he could exert influence through a handpicked successor.

Of the other eight parties or political blocs contesting the election, the Republican Party’s chief challenger is the Tsarukian Alliance.

Before breaking away and branding itself as an opposition force, Tsarukian had been a coalition partner of the Republican Party.

It was not clear ahead of the election whether Tsarukian would be willing to form a coalition again with Sarkisian’s party if, as the opinion polls suggest, neither wins enough votes to govern on its own.

Ruling coalition

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation, a smaller party currently in the ruling coalition with the Republicans, could help Sarkisian’s party form a majority coalition is Tsarukian is unwilling to do so.

Polls left it uncertain whether that party will get enough votes to be represented in parliament.

To win parliamentary seats, a party must win at least 5 percent of the vote and an alliance of parties must win at least 7 percent.

The right-wing conservative ORO Alliance, a bloc formed by three former cabinet ministers, could clear the threshold and win parliamentary seats.

That alliance takes an even harder line than Sarkisian’s Republicans on negotiations with Baku toward a settlement on the long-running conflict over Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Polls suggested three other political forces also have a chance to win parliamentary seats.

One is the Congress — PPA Party Alliance of former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, which puts an emphasis on making land-for-peace concessions with Baku in order to reach a settlement on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Another is the Armenian Renaissance Party, led by former parliament speaker and former security council chief Artur Baghdasarian.

Heavy election coverage

Baghdasarian owns the private television channel TV3, which has given heavy coverage to his party’s election campaign.

Polls suggest the centrist opposition Way Out Alliance, which has positioned itself as more pro-Western than its rivals, also was close to crossing the 7 percent barrier it needs to win parliamentary seats.

Opinion polls suggest that two smaller parties – the Communists and the pro-Western Free Democrats – are unlikely to win parliamentary seats.

Days ahead of the vote, the U.S. Embassy in Yerevan issued a joint statement with the European Union, Germany and the United Kingdom expressing concerns about allegations of irregularities since the campaign formally began on March 5.

The March 29 statement said diplomats were “aware of and concerned by” what it said were allegations of “voter intimidation, attempts to buy votes, and the systemic use of administrative resources to aid certain competing parties.”

In its interim report on March 7, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)’s observation mission also noted allegations of “widespread vote-buying” and “the prevalent perception” of “pressure and intimidation of voters.”

The OSCE mission also said that Armenia’s major commercial television stations “are financed by business and political groups and are perceived as being strongly associated with the government, as is public TV.”

The report said journalists had complained to monitors about “interference into editorial autonomy” and the “discouragement of critical reporting of the government on television.”

Focus on daily life

The main focus of the campaign has been social and economic issues affecting day-to-day life in the former Soviet republic.

Two political forces, Nikol Pashinian’s Way Out and the Free Democrats Party, have sought to position themselves as more pro-Western than their rivals.

Political analysts say that’s because public anger over Armenia’s economic problems is even stronger now than in 2015, when thousands of demonstrators blocked a central boulevard in Yerevan to protest planned electricity-price hikes.

For many, law wages, high inflation, joblessness, and corruption have eclipsed the question of whether Armenia should remain within the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union or seek closer integration with Europe.

Russian weapons deliveries to Baku had been the topic of heated debate after an escalation of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh last year.

But in the parliamentary campaign, most political forces steered clear of those issues and the question of whether Armenia is more secure with Russia as its ally.

RFE/RL correspondent Ron Synovitz in Prague and Suren Musayelyan in Yerevan contributed to this report.
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Acclaimed Russian poet Yevgeny Yevtushenko, whose work focused on war atrocities and denounced anti-Semitism and tyrannical dictators, has died. He was 84.

Ginny Hensley, a spokeswoman for Hillcrest Medical Center in Tulsa, confirmed Yevtushenko’s death. Roger Blais, provost at the University of Tulsa, where Yevtushenko was a longtime faculty member, said he was told Yevtushenko had died Saturday morning.

“He died a few minutes ago surrounded by relatives and close friends,” his widow, Maria Novikova, was quoted as saying by the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. She said he’d died peacefully in his sleep of heart failure.

Yevtushenko gained notoriety in the former Soviet Union while in his 20s, with poetry denouncing Josef Stalin. He gained international acclaim as a young revolutionary with “Babi Yar,” the unflinching 1961 poem that told of the slaughter of nearly 34,000 Jews by the Nazis and denounced the anti-Semitism that had spread throughout the Soviet Union.

Heard by huge crowds

At the height of his fame, Yevtushenko read his works in packed soccer stadiums and arenas, including to a crowd of 200,000 in 1991 that came to listen during a failed coup attempt in Russia. He also attracted large audiences on tours of the West.

With his tall, rangy body, chiseled visage and declaratory style, he was a compelling presence on stages when reading his works.

“He’s more like a rock star than some sort of bespectacled, quiet poet,” said former University of Tulsa President Robert Donaldson, who specialized in Soviet policy during his academic years at Harvard.

Until “Babi Yar” was published, the history of the massacre was shrouded in the fog of the Cold War.

“I don’t call it political poetry, I call it human rights poetry, the poetry which defends human conscience as the greatest spiritual value,” Yevtushenko, who had been splitting his time between Oklahoma and Moscow, said during a 2007 interview with The Associated Press at his home in Tulsa.

Yevtushenko said he wrote the poem after visiting the site of the mass killings in Kyiv, Ukraine, and searching for something memorializing what happened there — a sign, a tombstone, some kind of historical marker — but finding nothing.

“I was so shocked. I was absolutely shocked when I saw it, that people didn’t keep a memory about it,” he said.

It took him two hours to write the poem that begins, “No monument stands over Babi Yar. A drop sheer as a crude gravestone. I am afraid.”

Native of Zima

Yevtushenko was born in the Siberian town of Zima, a name that translates to winter. He rose to prominence during Nikita Khrushchev’s rule.

His poetry was outspoken and drew on the passion for poetry that is characteristic of Russia, where poetry is more widely revered than in the West. Some considered it risky, though others said he was only a showpiece dissident whose public views never went beyond the limits of what officials would permit.

Dissident exile poet Joseph Brodsky was especially critical, saying, “He throws stones only in directions that are officially sanctioned and approved.” Brodsky resigned from the American Academy of Arts and Letters when Yevtushenko was made an honorary member.

Donaldson invited Yevtushenko to teach at the university in 1992.

“I like very much the University of Tulsa,” Yevtushenko said in a 1995 interview with the AP. “My students are sons of ranchers, even cowboys, oil engineers. They are different people, but they are very gifted. They are closer to Mother Nature than the big city. They are more sensitive.”

He was also touched after the 1995 bombing of a federal government building in Oklahoma City, killing 168 people. He recalled one woman in his class who lost a relative in the blast, then commented that Russian women must have endured such suffering all their lives.

“This was the greatest compliment for me,” he said.

Blais, the university provost, said Yevtushenko remained an active professor at the time of his death. His poetry classes were perennially popular and featured football players and teenagers from small towns reading from the stage.

“He had a hard time giving bad grades to students because he liked the students so much,” Blais said.

Lauded in Russia

Yevtushenko’s death inspired tributes from his homeland.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on the Russian social media site Vkontakte: “He knew how to find the key to the souls of people, to find surprisingly accurate words that were in harmony with many.”

A spokesman for President Vladimir Putin said the poet’s legacy would remain “part of Russian culture.”

Natalia Solzhenitsyna, widow of the novelist Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, said on Russian state television that Yevtushenko “lived by his own formula.”

“A poet in Russia is more than a poet,” she said. “And he really was more than a poet — he was a citizen with a pronounced civic position.”
…

The Trump administration escalated its criticism of Moscow Friday, with two of its most senior officials denouncing Russia’s treatment of Ukraine and reiterating a vow to maintain U.S. sanctions.

In his first visit to a NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson accused Russia of “aggression” in Ukraine and told his counterparts that their alliance is “fundamental to countering both nonviolent, but at times violent, Russian agitation” in the region. 

He also said U.S. sanctions against Moscow will remain in effect until it “reverses the actions” that triggered them. Washington imposed the sanctions in response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and expanded them after Moscow began providing military aid to pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Tillerson’s previous language on Russia had been more conciliatory. After his first meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of a Group of 20 major economies meeting in Bonn in February, Tillerson said the U.S. wants to find “new common ground” with Russia and “expects” it to honor commitments to de-escalate violence in Ukraine as part of the 2015 Minsk agreement.

U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, whose role is subordinate to Tillerson, similarly criticized Russian “aggression” and vowed to keep U.S. sanctions in place in remarks to the U.N. Security Council February 2.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis also fired a verbal attack at Russia Friday. Echoing language he used in February, Mattis told reporters in London that Russian “violations” of international law are now a “matter of record — from what happened with Crimea to other aspects of their behavior in mucking around inside other people’s elections” — a likely reference to U.S. allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign.

Senior Russian lawmaker Alexey Pushkov was not amused by the U.S. verbal assaults. In a Friday tweet, he said the new U.S. administration “sounds like the old one — Mattis is indistinguishable from (former Defense Secretary Ash) Carter, Tillerson is talking about ‘Russian aggression.’ (Barack) Obama and (Hillary) Clinton must be happy.”

Bloomberg reported that Tillerson’s tough language on Russia was well-received by NATO officials. 

But NATO’s previous secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, told VOA Persian that he believes the Trump administration should go further. After speaking at a Hudson Institute forum in Washington Thursday, Rasmussen said the U.S. should “strengthen” its sanctions in response to what he called Russia’s continued destabilization of eastern Ukraine.

Watch: Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on US Sanctions

Tillerson and Mattis made no reference in their new remarks to Russia’s plans for more weapons sales to Iran, a nation the Trump administration has warned against threatening the U.S. or its Middle East allies.

A Russian lawmaker who heads the upper house of parliament’s defense and security committee, Viktor Ozerov, visited Iran last November and told reporters that Tehran was in talks to buy $10 billion worth of Russian military hardware. Ozerov said any Russian deliveries of conventional weapons to Iran likely will have to wait until 2020 when U.N. restrictions on arms sales to Tehran expire.

Moscow had taken a major step to boost military cooperation with Tehran before Ozerov’s announcement, delivering an S-300 advanced air defense system to Iran last year.

U.S. officials responded to the Russian-Iranian weapons talks with alarm, according to The Washington Free Beacon news site. It quoted State Department officials as saying they had long been working behind the scenes to persuade Moscow not to sell weapons to Iran.

Former NATO deputy secretary general Alexander Vershbow, who also spoke at Thursday’s Washington forum, told VOA Persian he does not think U.S. sanctions alone can stop Russia from arming Iran.

Watch: Former NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow on US Sanctions and Russia

“To be effective, the U.S. would have to adopt a unified sanctions approach with Europe,” Vershbow said. “While some sanctions imposed on Russia because of Ukraine may cover the Russian defense as well as financial sectors, targeting additional sanctions against Moscow specifically because of Iran may not be an easy issue for agreement with Europe, given its desire not to harm the Iran nuclear deal.”

Iran agreed to curb activities that could produce nuclear weapons as part of a 2015 deal with world powers, who agreed to ease sanctions against Tehran in return.

This report was produced in collaboration with VOA’s Persian Service.
…

Austria’s top diplomat on Friday called on both sides of the conflict in Azerbaijan’s autonomous breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh to renew the political settlement process.

Marking the first anniversary of deadly clashes in the Azeri region, which is populated mostly by ethnic Armenians, Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, current chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), emphasized his hope for a fresh start in the largely stalled peace negotiations.

“Clashes and serious violations of the cease-fire on the Line of Contact, resulting in casualties, were of particular concern to us throughout the past year,” Kurz said in a public statement. “It is now high time for a focus on pragmatic and practical steps for confidence-building as well as a resumption of substantive negotiations.”

The United States, Russia and France, which co-chair OSCE’s Minsk Group for conflict mediation, used diplomacy to halt the violence between Armenian-backed separatists and Azeri forces, which was the deadliest incident since a 1994 cease-fire established the current territorial division. Although they have been unable to secure a binding peace resolution, former U.S. Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh said, the renewed push by the OSCE presents a rare opportunity for U.S. and Russian coordination.

“President [Donald] Trump had made clear during his campaign, and since then, that he would like to find a way to have more positive relations with Russia. This might be one of those areas where that is more easily tackled,” said Cavanaugh, who once co-chaired the Minsk Group as a special negotiator alongside Russian and French diplomats.

Opportunity to surprise

“For two decades we’ve been working together as co-chairs on this, and I can tell you as a former co-chair — and I have talked with my successors — that the cooperation would surprise people,” he said.

Unlike the Syrian and Ukrainian conflicts, Nagorno-Karabakh is place where U.S. and Russian interests converge. Considering the constant cease-fire violations since the 2016 clashes left more than 100 people dead, Nagorno-Karabakh, he said, cannot be considered a frozen conflict, but rather “a simmering one, which needs a lot of attention and has a lot of danger.”

The only solution that can prevent further violence is close coordination between U.S. and Russian diplomats, whose nations would both benefit from a sustained peace in the region.

But that can only happen, Cavanaugh said, if both Azeri and Armenian-aligned factions show Washington and Moscow that they are ready to re-engage the peace process.

“The sides need to send clear signals to Moscow, to Washington, to Paris, that they are prepared now really to work on peace again.”

This report was produced in collaboration with VOA’s Armenian service.
…

Pressure is growing on the Hungarian government to withdraw a draft bill on higher education that could lead to the closure of the Central European University in Budapest, which was founded by billionaire philanthropist George Soros.

The U.S. State Department as well as dozens of academics in Hungary and abroad Friday called on Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government to ensure CEU’s independence and operations.

Orban said Friday on state radio that the CEU was “cheating” because it did not have a campus in its country of origin and because it issued diplomas recognized both in Hungary and the United States, giving it an undue advantage over local institutions. The CEU is accredited in New York state but does not have a U.S. campus.

“This is not fair to Hungarian universities,” Orban said. “There is competition among universities and it is inexplicable why we should put our own universities at a disadvantage … while securing an unfair advantage for the foreign university.”

Nobel Prize winners

Fourteen winners of the Nobel Prize in economics were among about 150 academics from U.S. and European universities who advocated for the CEU in an open letter addressed to education officials and Reka Szemerkenyi, Hungary’s ambassador in Washington.

“It would be a sad outcome for the training of students from the region, for academic research in Hungary, and for our own cooperation with Hungarian academics, if the proposed legislation came into force,” the academics said.

Orban, however, conditioned CEU’s survival to a bilateral Hungary-U.S. agreement on the university. He did not hide his disdain for the Hungarian-born Soros’ policies supporting the university and numerous non-governmental organizations that Orban considers “foreign agents” working against Hungarian interests.

University vows to stay open

CEU rector Michael Ignatieff has vowed to keep the university open despite the draft bill, scheduled to be debated by lawmakers next week. The bill sets new conditions on foreign universities operating in Hungary and was seen as directly targeting the CEU.

Among the 28 foreign universities in Hungary, only CEU would fail to meet a requirement to also have a campus in its home country.

“Contrary to the prime minister’s statement, there is no current Hungarian law that requires universities to have operations in their home countries in order to award degrees in Hungary,” the CEU said. “We have been lawful partners in Hungarian higher education for 25 years and any statement to the contrary is false.”

The CEU also said it was notified Friday by Hungary’s education authority that its accreditation in New York state met the conditions for operating in Hungary.

US speaks out

The U.S. State Department also took exception to the proposed legislation, saying it would impose “new, targeted, and onerous regulatory requirements on foreign universities.”

“If adopted, these changes would negatively affect or even lead to the closure” of the CEU, State Department spokesman Mark Toner said. “We urge the government of Hungary to avoid taking any legislative action that would compromise CEU’s operations or independence.”

Hungarian university organizations also expressed their support for the CEU.

“CEU is a very significant scholarly center,” said Laszlo Lovasz, president of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. “It is good that it operates in Budapest.”
…

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, meeting with his NATO allies’ counterparts, said Friday in Brussels that they must increase their countries’ defense budgets.

The top U.S.  diplomat told the foreign ministers the alliance must have “all of the resources, financial and otherwise, that are necessary for NATO to fulfill its mission” in places like Iraq and Syria.

Earlier Friday, Tillerson said he also wanted to discuss “Russia’s aggression in Ukraine” with the NATO allies.

Upon arrival in Brussels, the top U.S. diplomat said he sees three important areas to discuss: NATO’s resources for its mission, the organization’s fight against terrorism, including Islamic State, and NATO’s posture in Europe, “most particularly Eastern Europe in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere.”

The comments concerning Moscow are some of the strongest the Trump administration has made since coming to power in January.

Tillerson’s visit to Brussels comes one day after meeting with top Turkish officials in Ankara.

Ankara talks

He hailed Turkey as a trusted ally after meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other leaders Thursday.

Tillerson underlined the importance of Turkey in the battle against Islamic State.

But the two NATO allies remain at loggerheads over Washington’s support for the Syrian Kurdish group the PYD and its militia, the YPG, in fighting Islamic State militants. Ankara accuses the PYD of being a terrorist organization affiliated with the PKK, which is fighting the Turkish State.

In a joint news conference, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stressed Turkey’s opposition to support of the PYD, but did not directly criticize the Trump administration.

Tillerson acknowledged no breakthrough on the dispute, saying more discussions are needed. “We are exploring a number of options and alternatives,” but reiterated Washington’s support of Ankara in fighting the PKK.

With Washington stepping up its military support of the YPG before the operation to liberate Raqqa, the self-declared capital of Islamic State, Ankara increasingly appears resigned to the fact that its call for its military forces to replace the Syrian Kurdish groups has been rejected. But a presidential source ruled out any retaliatory measures against the United States, stressing it did not want the issue to undermine future cooperation.

 
…

The European Union softened its public stance on Britain’s exit from the bloc Friday, with Council President Donald Tusk signaling some flexibility on allowing talks on a new relationship before the divorce proceedings are complete.

Draft guidelines obtained by the Associated Press say that the EU and Britain must first “settle the disentanglement” of Britain from the bloc but added that “an overall understanding on the framework for the future relationship could be identified during the second phase of the negotiations under Article 50.” 

The guidelines also say it is a priority to settle questions about British and other European citizens living in each other’s countries, and call for “flexible and imaginative solutions” for the issue of the U.K.’s land border with Ireland.

Talks will be difficult 

EU leaders warned after a meeting Friday that the two years of talks triggered this week to negotiate Britain’s exit will be difficult, but insisted they don’t want all-out economic or diplomatic conflict. Tusk is presenting the EU’s draft negotiating guidelines to leaders of the remaining 27 member states Friday.

Tusk said the EU will not punish Britain in the talks, saying that Brexit itself is “punitive enough.” The head of the rotating EU presidency, Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat, insisted the negotiations “will not be a war.”

Tusk said there would not be parallel discussions about Britain’s exit and its future relationship with the EU, but said that the negotiations could move onto a second phase if there is “sufficient progress” in the exit talks.

He didn’t define what kind of progress that would have to be, but said that the 27 remaining EU members would have to agree before moving on.

Threat ruled out

Tusk ruled out the suggestion that there was an inherent threat in British Prime Minister Theresa May’s departure letter Wednesday, which some felt hinted that Britain was threatening to end security cooperation with continental Europe unless it gets a good Brexit deal.

British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson also insisted Friday that Britain’s commitment to European defense and security is “unconditional” and “not some bargaining chip in any negotiations’’ over Brexit.

Johnson, speaking in Brussels upon arrival for a NATO meeting, said he has had good feedback from partners since Wednesday’s British formal announcement of its departure from the EU, despite worries on both sides of the Channel about Brexit. 
…

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has criticized those, including U.S. President Donald Trump, who praise Britain’s secession from the European Union (EU), and champion similar movements in other member nations. Leaders of the European People’s Party met on Malta Thursday, a day after Britain triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, officially starting the process known as Brexit. Zlatica Hoke has more.
…

A top police official says a recent hacking attack on the German Parliament may have led to a “significant drain of data” which may be used to try influence the outcome of the country’s general election in September.

Holger Muench, the head of Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office, didn’t tell reporters Thursday who might have been behind the most recent hacking attack. The offices of at least 10 members of Parliament were attacked last month, the German news agency dpa reported.

In the summer of 2015, the Bundestag suffered another hacker attack, which meant several networks and servers had to be taken offline for days.

German authorities have repeatedly expressed fears that foreign countries could try to influence the outcome of the elections by releasing hacked information during the campaign.
…

Prince William, his wife Kate and his brother Prince Harry are spearheading a campaign to encourage people to talk openly about mental health issues.

The young royals released 10 films Thursday as part of their Heads Together campaign to change the national conversation on mental health.

The videos feature celebrities and members of the public talking about the breakthrough conversation that helped them come to terms with their mental health problems.

The former England cricket captain Andrew Flintoff and former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s spin doctor Alastair Campbell are among those seen speaking about their experiences of anxiety or depression.

The films can be viewed on the Heads Together website and YouTube page.

 
…

Britain’s chief negotiator in the country’s divorce from the European Union on Thursday rejected suggestions the U.K. has threatened to end security cooperation unless it gets a good trade deal, as the U.K. announced plans for the huge task of replacing thousands of EU laws and regulations with domestic law.

Brexit Secretary David Davis said Prime Minister Theresa May’s letter triggering talks on Britain’s departure made clear Britain wants to continue to work with the EU on a range of issues, including security, for both sides.

“We want a deal, and she was making the point that it’s bad for both of us if we don’t have a deal,” Davis told the BBC. “Now that, I think, is a perfectly reasonable point to make and not in any sense a threat.”

May’s six-page letter triggering two years of divorce negotiations makes 11 references to security, and said that without a good deal, “our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.”

The tabloid Sun was in no doubt about what May meant: “Your money or your lives,” was its front-page headline Thursday, along with the words “PM’s Brexit threat to EU.”

Britain is a European security powerhouse — one of only two nuclear powers in the bloc and with some of the world’s most capable intelligence services.

May said Wednesday that Britain will probably have to leave the EU police agency, Europol, after Brexit but wants to “maintain the degree of cooperation on these matters that we have currently.”

Home Secretary Amber Rudd, whose responsibilities include intelligence and security, also denied there was a threat, but told Sky News: “If we left Europol, then we would take our information … with us. The fact is, the European partners want to keep our information.”

Senior European leaders responded positively to the warm overall tone of May’s letter — but they could not miss the steely undertone.

“I find the letter of Mrs. May very constructive generally, but there is also one threat in it,” said European Parliament Brexit coordinator Guy Verhoftstadt, saying May seemed to be demanding a good trade deal in exchange for continued security cooperation.

“It doesn’t work like that,” he told Sky News. “You cannot abuse the security of citizens to have then a good deal on something else.”

A day after triggering its EU exit process, the British government began outlining Thursday how it intends to convert thousands of EU rules into British law when it leaves the bloc in 2019.

The government published plans for a Great Repeal Bill that will transform more than 12,000 EU laws in force in Britain into U.K. statute so that “the same rules will apply after exit day” as before.

The bill is designed to prevent Britain plunging into a legislative black hole once it extricates itself from the EU.

Davis told lawmakers it would ensure that British laws are made not in Brussels but “in London, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast.”

But opposition lawmakers are unhappy at plans to give government ministers power to change some laws without votes in Parliament.

They fear the Conservative government will use it as a chance to water down workers’ rights and environmental protections introduced in Britain during four decades of EU membership.

Labour Party Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer said the proposed bill “gives sweeping powers to the executive” and lacks “rigorous safeguards” on their abuse.

The government insists executive powers will be time-limited and will only be used to make “mechanical changes” so laws can be applied smoothly. It says it is trying to balance “the need for scrutiny and the need for speed.”

The government says Parliament will be able to scrutinize all “substantive policy changes,” including new customs and immigration laws, and that environmental, workplace and human rights standards will stay in force.

 
…

Turkish banker Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a prominent ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, came to New York this week to school investors on his state bank’s plans to sell new dollar bonds.

Instead, he was placed under arrest by U.S. authorities and accused of conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions on Iran by teaming with wealthy Turkish gold trader Reza Zarrab to funnel hundreds of millions of dollars of illegal transactions through U.S. banks to Iran’s government.

“United States sanctions are not mere requests or suggestions; they are the law,” Acting U.S. Attorney Joon Kim said in a statement in New York, where Atilla was arraigned Tuesday.

He was arrested at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport on Monday.

Gold, currency allegedly sent to Iran

Atilla “protected and hid Zarrab’s ability to provide access to international financial networks,” U.S. authorities said in documents filed in the U.S. court. The documents allege that gold and currency were sent to Iran, while documents were forged to disguise the transactions as food shipments so as to comply with humanitarian exceptions to the sanctions law.

Atilla’s arrest and the case of Zarrab — arrested last year in Florida — drew a sharp rebuke from the Turkish government, which said it planned to raise the matter with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson when he visits Ankara this week, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Turkish media.

Relations between the U.S. and Turkey are frayed over the Syrian civil war and Turkish demands for the extradition of Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom the Turkish leadership blames for July’s failed coup in Turkey.

Diplomatic dispute?

In terms of the impact of the recent development on the U.S. Turkish relationship, some analysts suggest it could potentially be an issue as the two sides view the case through different lenses.

“For the U.S., it is a case of sanctions law violation,” said Ihan Tani, a journalist who follows U.S.-Turkish relations. “But some people close to the Turkish president seem to be involved with Reza Zarrab.”

Tani added that because of the involvement of close aides of the Turkish president, the issue could escalate into a diplomatic dispute.

But Tani said Atilla knew that U.S authorities viewed him as a potential suspect.

“He knew that he was part of the U.S. investigation here. So why did he come to this country? It is hard to understand. If he took a risk, now he is paying for it,” Tani said.

The U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan declined to comment on his motives to travel to the U.S.

Lender’s shares drop

The arrest could have major financial implications for Turkish state lender Halkbank. Bank shares posted their biggest one-day fall on Wednesday.

Halkbank, Turkey’s fifth-largest bank in terms of assets, vowed to investigate.

“Our bank and relevant state bodies are conducting the necessary work on the subject, and information will be shared with the public when it is obtained,” Halkbank said in a statement.
…

Russian high school student Roman Shingarkin had some explaining to do when he got home after becoming one of the faces of anti-Kremlin protests at the weekend. His father is a former member of parliament who supports President Vladimir Putin.

At the height of a protest in Moscow on Sunday against what organizers said was official corruption, 17-year-old Shingarkin and another young man climbed onto the top of a lamp-post in the city’s Pushkin Square.

Hundreds of protesters in the square cheered and whistled as a police officer, dressed in riot gear, shinned up the lamp-post and remonstrated with the two to come down. They refused, and the police officer retreated, to jubilation from the protesters down below.

As images of the protests, the biggest in Russia for several years, ricocheted around social media, Shingarkin’s sit-in on top of the lamp-post was adopted by Kremlin opponents as a David-and-Goliath style symbol of defiance.

Shingarkin was eventually detained when, after the protest in Pushkin Square had dispersed, police persuaded him to climb down. He was taken to a police station but as a minor, he could not be charged. From the police station, he had to ring his father to ask to be picked up.

His father, Maxim Shingarkin, was from 2011 until 2016 a lawmaker in the State Duma, or lower house of parliament. He was a member of the LDPR party, a nationalist group that on nearly all major issues backs Putin.

Putin last year gave the party’s leader, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a medal for services to Russia. With Putin standing next to him, Zhirinovsky proclaimed: “God protect the tsar.”

Shingarkin had not told his father he would be going to the protest, but the former lawmaker quickly guessed what had happened.

“When I rang my dad from the police station, he immediately understood why I was there,” Shingarkin, wearing the same blue and black coat he had on during the protest, said in an interview with Reuters TV.

“I went there [to the rally] out of interest to see how strong the opposition is, how many people would take to the streets, and at the same time to get a response from authorities to a clear fact of corruption.”

He decided to climb up the lamp-post because he “could see nothing from the ground.”

Contacted by telephone on Wednesday, Shingarkin senior said he was sympathetic with his son’s motives for attending the protest.

“He has a social position, against corruption, I support it completely,” Maxim Shingarkin said.

But he emphasised that his son’s actions did not mean that he or the family were opponents of Putin.

The Russian leader, Shingarkin senior said, is popular among voters and there is no one to replace him, but he is let down by the officials around him.

Roman Shingarkin said for now he would not attend any more protests unless they were approved by the authorities.

He said he might venture to a non-approved demonstration once he turns 18, because if he gets into trouble then, the police will charge him and not involve his parents.
…

The United States is examining its next steps in the campaign to defeat Islamic State militants and stabilize the refugee crisis with regional allies, as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson embarks on trips to Turkey and NATO headquarters this week. The top U.S. diplomat will press NATO allies to demonstrate a clear path to increase defense spending, in his first meeting with counterparts from this security bloc.

U.S.-led forces are increasing their campaign to retake the Syrian city of Raqqa from Islamic State militants. Stabilizing areas where militants have fled and allowing refugees to return home is high on the agenda for the U.S. and its anti-Islamic State coalition partners.

In Turkey, Tillerson will try to build on progress from last week’s meeting of coalition partners in Washington.

“While a more defined course of action in Syria is still coming together, I can say the United States will increase our pressure on ISIS and al-Qaida, and will work to establish interim zones of stability through cease-fires to allow refugees to go home,” he said, using a common acronym for Islamic State, which is also known as ISIL and Daesh.

But it could be a tall order, according to Middle East expert Daniel Serwer.

“The Turks would like to have safe zones; they have been proposing them for years,” he said. “But they are, in fact, extraordinarily difficult to create, and to defend, and to maintain.”

NATO

Days before Tillerson’s first meeting with NATO foreign ministers, Tillerson met with his counterparts from the Baltic states. They expressed confidence in Washington’s support for NATO.

“We’re passing what we consider very important messages of the need to develop transatlantic security and economic links, so it was, overall, a very good introductory meeting,” Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics told VOA’s Ukrainian Service.

After Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea, NATO agreed to send troops to Lithuania and to Estonia, Latvia and Poland, in a move to deter potential Russian aggression.

“I wouldn’t say the military presence is insignificant,” Estonian Foreign Minister Sven Misker told VOA’s Russian Service. “These are very well-trained, well-equipped forces. But when you look at the numbers, the presence is slightly modest compared to what Russia has in place on the other side of the border. So it shouldn’t be viewed as escalatory in any way … but I think it’s sufficient to make Russia change its calculus. It makes clear to Russia that they should not launch a provocation and think that they can do it with impunity.”

Tillerson is going to the NATO talks before he goes to Moscow, a move that ends the controversy over his earlier decision to skip the event.

“[NATO allies] want the commitment by Tillerson to maintain sanctions [on Russia for its actions] on Ukraine; they want a commitment from Tillerson that his president isn’t going to sell out the alliance to the Russians,” Serwer said.

Tillerson will make it clear that it is no longer sustainable for the United States to maintain a disproportionate share of NATO’s defense spending. He also will consult with allies about their shared commitment to improve security in Ukraine and the need for NATO to push Russia to end aggression against its neighbors.

NATO member states have until 2024 to meet a shared pledge to contribute 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense.

Estonia is the only Baltic nation to spend 2 percent of the GDP for defense purposes. Lithuania and Latvia have pledged to reach that level by 2018.

This report was produced in collaboration with VOA’s Russian and Ukrainian services.
…

Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised to sign off on a delivery of fighter jets, battle tanks and armored vehicles to Serbia, the Balkan country’s defense minister said Tuesday, in what could worsen tensions with neighboring states and trigger an arms race in the war-weary region.

Defense Minister Zoran Djordjevic said that Putin agreed to approve the delivery during a visit by Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic to Moscow on Monday. He said six MiG-29 fighter jets, 30 T-72 tanks and 30 BRDM-2 armored vehicles will be delivered soon.

“The president of the Russian Federation said he will sign that decree, and when it’s signed, we will act accordingly,” Djordjevic said. “We are waiting for the process to be finalized in Russia and see how (the equipment) will be delivered to Serbia.”

The jets would have to fly over NATO-member countries before reaching Serbia. Or, they would have to be taken apart and flown in transport planes, if the neighboring countries approve.

Djordjevic said that the jets, tanks and fighting vehicles — donated from Russian arms reserves for free — will be “fully modernized and refurbished” in Serbia by Russian technicians for an undisclosed sum. It is estimated that the overhaul of the MiGs alone would cost Serbia some 200 million euros ($216 million.)

Djordjevic said earlier that Serbia is also interested in buying a Russian air defense system as well as opening a repair center for Russian MIL helicopters which, analysts believe, would be tantamount to opening a Russian military base on its territory.

Serbia formally has been on the path to join the European Union, but under political and propaganda pressure from Moscow has steadily slid toward the Kremlin and its goal of keeping the countries in the Balkan region out of NATO and other Western integrations.

EU officials have voiced their alarm over increasing Russian influence in the western Balkans, which has seen a bloody civil war in the 1990s.

Meanwhile, Serbia’s archrival and NATO-member Croatia is shopping for a new fighter to replace the nation’s aging MiG-21s.

The two leading contenders for the planned contract reportedly include American Lockheed Martin’s F-16 and Swedish Saab JAS-39 Gripen.
…

Scotland’s Parliament voted Tuesday to seek a new referendum on independence from Britain, clearing the way for the country’s first minister, its top lawmaker, to ask the British government to approve such a vote.

The legislature in Edinburgh voted 69-59 to seek Britain’s parliamentary endorsement, which is required, for a referendum that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold within two years — before Britain has completed its departure from the 28-nation European Union.

British voters narrowly approved a departure from the EU last year, and London will begin the formal process leading to Britain’s exit from the union on Wednesday.

Despite the overall vote last year in favor of leaving the EU — based on ballots cast in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — nearly two-thirds of Scottish voters elected to remain in the bloc. Since then, Sturgeon has insisted that independence is the only way for Scotland to maintain its formal EU relationship.

Scottish voters chose not to declare independence from London in a referendum three years ago, but that was months before discussions began about Britain’s possible departure from the Brussels-based EU.  

‘Democratically indefensible’

Sturgeon has argued that last year’s Brexit vote necessitates a new independence referendum. On Tuesday, she said “it would be democratically indefensible and utterly unsustainable” for London to block a new Scottish vote.

Sturgeon first predicted a push for a new independence referendum last year, hours after British voters elected to leave the EU. She said it would be “unacceptable” for Scotland to be forced to leave the EU along with the rest of Britain, in light of Scots’ strong support for remaining in the bloc.

For her part, British Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not support a new Scottish vote until Britain has formally departed the EU — a process of negotiations that experts say could take take several years.

“Now is not the time,” May said of a new Scottish referendum, adding that Britons “should be working together, not pulling apart,” as the Brexit unfolds.
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