Brexit has British business owners on edge — and that is great news for Lovespace, a storage and warehousing company outside London.

Lovespace, which collects boxes from customers, stores them and then returns the goods when needed, says revenue from businesses doubled over the past year and inquiries quadrupled as enterprises large and small began stockpiling inventory because of concerns they will be cut off from suppliers if Britain leaves the European Union without an agreement on future trading relations.

“People are working out how to store stuff — how to get things to their own customers as the year progresses,” CEO Steve Folwell said as workers moved boxes around the company’s 20,000 square-foot (1,860 square-meter) warehouse in Dunstable, about 35 miles (55 kilometers) northwest of London. “There’s uncertainty because of Brexit and there’s a lack of trust in the political process at the moment.”

The risk of a no-deal Brexit is increasing amid widespread opposition to the divorce agreement Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated with the EU. While May says her deal is the only way to ensure that trade continues to flow smoothly after Britain leaves the bloc on March 29, U.K. lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected the agreement late Tuesday because opponents fear it will leave the country tied to the EU for years to come.

Without an agreement on future relations, 40 years of free trade between Britain and the EU would be replaced by tariffs, border inspections and other non-tariff barriers, with potentially devastating impacts on the British economy. The government’s own contingency plans raise the specter of lengthy border delays that could cause shortages of food and medicine, and the Bank of England predicts gross domestic product could shrink by as much as 8 percent this year.

“Businesses would face new costs and tariffs,” said Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the Confederation of British Industries, which represents 190,000 businesses. “Our ports would be disrupted, separating firms from the parts they need to supply their customers.”

Among those taking precautions is Richard Ellison, the founder of Wanderlust Wine, who imports wines from small producers off the beaten track. Worried that supplies to his customers could be interrupted, he’s stocked up in advance to brace for disruption at the border and the potential for an increase in paperwork.

“Everything will have to be checked at the border,” he said, explaining his precautions. “We bought quite a lot in advance — an extra pallet or two to tide us over.”

Companies ranging from supermarket giant Tesco, which imports food from continental suppliers, to carmakers like Ford, who rely on European parts to feed British production lines, have been lobbying politicians for clarity about future trading relations ever since U.K. voters backed leaving the EU in a June 2016 referendum. Now they are taking action to ensure they can continue to operate in the event no deal is reached.

A survey of U.K. manufacturers found that stockpiles of both finished goods and raw materials rose at near-record rates in December as businesses prepared for a possible disruption in supplies, according to the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply.

More than 60 percent of U.K. manufacturers are preparing to stockpile goods and 29 percent have already begun to do so, according to a November survey of 242 companies by EEF, the manufacturers’ organization. Some are even erecting new buildings to increase storage capacity.

“They are looking for places to store stuff,” said Francesco Arcangeli, the EEF’s economist. “They are looking for space. They are creating new space. That never happened before.”

Charlie Pool, CEO of Stowga, which loosely describes itself as the Airbnb of British warehousing, said customers looking for storage space searched the company’s site 10,000 times in December, up from an average of 3,000 a month. Businesses are sometimes even paying deposits to secure their bookings, which isn’t standard practice, Pool said, comparing it to paying for a hotel before arrival.

“The data we have is proving that stockpiling for Brexit is definitely a thing,” he said. “It’s happening now.”

That is driving up the cost of storage space. The average price to store a pallet of goods jumped to 2.10 pounds ($2.71) a week last month from 1.85 pounds in September. Pool said he wouldn’t be surprised if exceeded 3 pounds should a no-deal Brexit become a reality. That would still be relatively cheap compared with the cost of not getting products to the end consumers, he said.

The dangers of Brexit to business are evident even for storage companies like Lovespace. Despite the boom in revenue, a potential investor pulled back last year because of the uncertainty caused by Britain’s exit from the EU.

The investor said “it seems awfully complex to me,” Folwell said. “People are looking at the U.K. as a bit of a basket case at the moment.”

 
…

A Gillette ad for men invoking the #MeToo movement is sparking intense online backlash, with accusations that it talks down to men and groups calling for a boycott. But Gillette says it doesn’t mind sparking a discussion. Since it debuted Monday, the Internet-only ad has garnered nearly 19 million views on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter — a level of buzz that any brand would covet.

The two-minute ad from Procter & Gamble’s razor brand shows men and boys engaging in bullying and sexual harassment and encourages men to “say the right thing” and “act the right way.” Taking on bullying, sexual harassment and toxic masculinity is a big task for a razor brand. Many critics took to social media saying it was insulting to men and laden with stereotypes.

The uproar comes as Gillette battles upstarts like Harrys Razors, Dollar Shave Club, and others for millennial dollars. Gillette controlled about 70 percent of the U.S. market a decade ago. Last year, its market share dropped to below 50 percent, according to Euromonitor.

Allen Adamson, co-founder of branding firm Metaforce, called the ad a “hail Mary” pass from the 117-year-old company. But he added that online buzz, whether positive or negative, rarely makes a long-term difference for a marketer since memory fades quickly.

“Getting noticed and getting buzz is no easy task, and they’ve managed to break through,” Adamson said. “Most advertisers advertise, and no one notices because there is so much noise in the marketplace, so just getting noticed Is a big win, especially for low-interest category like a razor.”

On the flip side, it probably won’t sell many razors either, he said.

Advertisers and social issues

Gillette’s ad echoes other attempts by major advertisers to take on social issues. Pepsi pulled an ad in 2017 showing Kendall Jenner giving a cop a Pepsi during a protest and apologized after an outcry that it trivialized “Black Lives Matter” and other protest movements. Nike polarized the nation with an ad featuring ex-NFL player Colin Kaepernick who started a wave of protests among NFL players of police brutality, racial inequality and other social issues.

Sales weren’t affected in either of those cases. When controversy does affect sales, it is usually over something more substantive than an ad. Lululemon saw sales tumble in 2013 after a string of PR disasters including manufacturing problems that caused their pricey yoga pants to become see through and fat-shaming comments from their founder. But even that was short lived.

Ronn Torossian, CEO of 5WPR, said that much like Nike’s Kaepernick ad, Gillette likely knew the ad would garner online debate.

“Nike knew what they were getting themselves into,” Torossian said. The ad with Kapernick was “making a lot of noise, and it can’t be a surprise to [Gillette] that this is making a lot of noise.”

Gillette response

P&G, one of the world’s largest advertisers, is known for its anthemic spots that appeal to emotions during the Olympics and other events, often aimed at women, such as the tear-jerking “Thank You Mom” Olympics branding campaign and Always “Like a Girl” 2014 Super Bowl ad.

Pankaj Bhalla, North America brand director on Gillette, says the controversy was not the intended goal of the ad, which is part of a larger campaign that takes a look at redefining Gillette’s longtime tagline “The Best a Man Can Get,” in different ways. Another online ad features one-handed NFL rookie Shaquem Griffin.

While he doesn’t want to lose sales or a boycott over the ad, “we would not discourage conversation or discussion because of that,” he said.

“Our ultimate aim is to groom the next generation of men, and if any of this helps even in a little way we’ll consider that a success,” he said.

Larry Chiagouris, marketing professor at Pace University, is skeptical.

“Treating people with respect, who can argue with that, but they’re kind of late to the party here, that’s the biggest problem,” he said. “It’s gratuitous and self-serving.”
…

China’s trade surplus with the United States rose dramatically in 2018, despite a tit-for-tat tariff war with the U.S. that has roiled global markets.

The surplus stood at a record-high $323.3 billion, compared to $275.8 billion recorded the year before. 

Data released Monday by China’s customs bureau shows the country’s exports to the U.S. grew more than 11 percent in 2018. Imports from the United States rose only slightly (0.7 percent). 

But the data also revealed that exports slowed by 3.5 percent last month, as the administration of President Donald Trump imposed a series of stiff tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods to force Beijing to buy more American goods and to resolve issues involving technology, intellectual property and cyber theft issues.

The data also revealed mixed news about the strength of the world’s second-biggest economy – while China’s global trade surplus was $352 billion for 2018, its global exports dropped 4.4 percent in December compared to a year earlier, while imports plunged 7.6 percent, suggesting softening demand both at home and abroad.

Figures released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that car sales fell in 2018 – the first time in 20 years for a decline.
…

The auto industry gathered in Detroit on Sunday, on the eve of the last winter edition of North America’s premiere auto show, as carmakers grapple with a contracting market and uncertainty in the year ahead.

Concerns over the health of the global economy and a US-China trade war loomed over the North American International Auto Show, as it prepared to open Monday with the first five days dedicated to the media and industry insiders. The show opens to the general public on January 19.

While a number of major announcements were expected — including an anticipated strategic alliance between Ford and Volkswagen — there will be fewer automakers and new car unveilings, making it more subdued. 

“This is a transition year for the Detroit show,” said analyst Michelle Krebs of Autotrader. “It’s kind of emblematic of where the industry is. We’re in a transition in the industry.”

After a 10-year boom, analysts expect North American auto sales to contract in 2019, as consumers face pressures and carmakers grapple with multiple uncertainties. 

Rising interest rates and car prices have squeezed car buyers, and fewer of them are able to afford increasingly pricey, technology-heavy cars. 

Kelley Blue Book predicted the average new-car price was up about three percent in 2018 to more than $36,000.

• Tariffs cause uncertainty –

Meanwhile, tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products and a potentially intensifying trade dispute between the Donald Trump administration and Beijing has automakers spooked, analysts said.

“Tariffs already had an impact in 2018,” said Cox Automotive chief analyst Jonathan Smoke, adding that 47 percent of the vehicles sold in the US in 2018 were imported. 

“We believe about two percent of today’s prices are because of the tariffs that were already implemented.”

The US is considering additional tariffs of 25 percent. Should it announce such a move by the February 17 deadline, it could have a substantial impact on the industry and stock markets, Smoke said. 

“We believe that they are likely to move forward with some form of that tariff, because it becomes then a lever for them to force… further negotiations.”

Should tariffs raise car prices further, analysts said it could substantially depress the new car market. Consumers would flock to relatively cheaper used cars, which are in ample supply. 

A growing number of lightly-used, tech-heavy vehicles leased during the sales boom of the last few years are being returned to dealerships.

The auto dealers association, which organizes the show, also was contending with the uncertainty of the show’s very relevance. Almost all German carmakers abandoned the show this year, as more and more important announcements are made at other gatherings. 

Next year, the Detroit show will move from January, when it has been held for some 40 years, to June.

• Goodbye winter – 

Organizers hope the summer weather will allow for outdoor events that allow attendees to try out the new cars and technologies on display.

“It’s run out of gas now,” said Krebs. “June could be a rebirth for the show.”

Among the few notable unveilings this year will be from Ford, which is expected to display a redesigned Explorer SUV and a more powerful version of its iconic Mustang sports car under the name Shelby GT500. 

SUVs and trucks will once again be the highlight, a symptom of North American consumers’ shift away from sedans and small cars. Trucks and SUVs made up a majority of new purchases in the US last year. 

“The SUVs have become cars with SUV bodies sitting on top of them,” said Karl Brauer of Kelly Blue Book. 

Detroit’s big three automakers have been ending production of almost all of their sedans and small cars, succumbing to the pressure of falling demand.

To hedge against the threat of a global economic downturn, GM has announced plans to close underutilized US plants that made smaller, less profitable vehicles. 

Ford planned similar cost-cutting moves in Europe.
…

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said Sunday that major oil producers need to do better to narrow swings in prices that dip below $60 a barrel and rise above $86.

“I think what we need to do is narrow the range… of volatility,” Khalid al-Falih said.

“We need to do better and the more producers that work with us, the better we’re able” to do so, he told the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi.

Cautious not to set a price target or range, he explained there are consequences when oil prices dip too low or rise too high.

Last month, OPEC countries, including Saudi Arabia, and other major oil producers agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day to reduce oversupply and boost prices for the first six months of 2019.

Oil producers are under pressure to reduce production following a sharp fall in oil prices in recent months because major producers — including the United States — are pumping oil at high rates.

Brent crude, the international standard, traded at $60.48 a barrel in London on Friday. Benchmark U.S. crude stood at $51.59 a barrel in New York.

Analysts say the kingdom needs oil between $75 and $80 a barrel to balance its budget, with spending for this year to reach a record high of $295 billion.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the forum, al-Falih said that despite continued concerns over the volatility in price seen in the fourth quarter of 2018, he is hopeful it can be brought under control.

“I think early signs this year are positive,” he said.

Last week, Saudi Arabia announced it has 268.5 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, a figure 2.2 billion barrels higher than previously known. The kingdom’s Energy Ministry also revised upward the country’s gas reserves by around 10 percent, to 325.1 trillion standard cubic feet as of the end of 2017.

The kingdom’s oil reserves are among the cheapest in the world to recover at around $4 per barrel.

Al-Falih said the revision, conducted as an independent audit by consultants DeGolyer and MacNaughton, points to why the kingdom believes state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco “is indeed the world’s most valuable company.”

He said plans for an initial public offering of shares in Aramco in 2021 remain on track.

 
…

Zimbabwe will introduce a new currency in the next 12 months, the finance minister said, as a shortage of U.S. dollars has plunged the financial system into disarray and forced businesses to close.

In the past two months, the southern African nation has suffered acute shortages of imported goods, including fuel whose price was increased by 150 percent Saturday.

Zimbabwe abandoned its own currency in 2009 after it was wrecked by hyperinflation and adopted the greenback and other currencies, such as sterling and the South African rand.

But there is not enough hard currency in the country to back up the $10 billion of electronic funds trapped in local bank accounts, prompting demands from businesses and civil servants for cash that can be deposited and used to make payments.

​Two weeks of reserves

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube told a townhall meeting Friday a new local currency would be introduced in less than 12 months.

“On the issue of raising enough foreign currency to introduce the new currency, we are on our way already, give us months, not years,” he said.

Zimbabwe’s foreign reserves now provide less than two weeks cover for imports, central bank data show. The government has previously said it would only consider launching a new currency if it had at least six months of reserves.

Bad memories of Zimbabwean dollar

Locals are haunted by memories of the Zimbabwean dollar, which became worthless as inflation spiraled to reach 500 billion percent in 2008, the highest rate in the world for a country not at war, wiping out pensions and savings.

A surrogate bond note currency introduced in 2016 to stem dollar shortages has also collapsed in value.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa is under pressure to revive the economy but dollar shortages are undermining efforts to win back foreign investors sidelined under his predecessor Robert Mugabe.

Mnangagwa told reporters Saturday that the price of petrol had increased to $3.31 per liter from $1.32 since midnight but there would be no increase for foreign embassies and tourists paying in cash U.S. dollars.

Locals can pay via local debit cards, mobile phone payments and a surrogate bond note currency.

With less than $400 million in actual cash in Zimbabwe, according to central bank figures, fuel shortages have worsened and companies are struggling to import raw materials and equipment, forcing them to buy greenback notes on the black market at a premium of up to 370 percent.

The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries has warned some of its members could stop operating at the end of the month because of the dollar crunch.

Cooking oil and soap maker Olivine Industries said Saturday it had suspended production and put workers on indefinite leave because it owed foreign suppliers $11 million.

A local associate of global brewing giant Anheuser-Busch Inbev said this week it would invest more than $120 million of dividends and fees trapped in Zimbabwe into the central bank’s savings bonds.
…

Elon Musk’s rocket company SpaceX will reduce its workforce by about 10 percent of the company’s more than 6,000 employees, it said on Friday.

The company said it will “part ways” with some of its manpower, citing “extraordinarily difficult challenges ahead.”

“To continue delivering for our customers and to succeed in developing interplanetary spacecraft and a global space based

Internet, SpaceX must become a leaner company. Either of these developments, even when attempted separately, have bankrupted other organizations,” a spokesman said in an email.

In June, Elon Musk fired at least seven people in the senior management team leading a SpaceX satellite launch project, Reuters reported in November. The firings were related to disagreements over the pace at which the team was developing and testing its Starlink satellites.

SpaceX’s Starlink program is competing with OneWeb and Canada’s Telesat to be the first to market with a new satellite-based internet service.

The management shakeup involved Musk bringing in new managers from SpaceX headquarters in California to replace a number of the managers he fired in Seattle.

Last month, SpaceX launched its first U.S. national security space mission, when a SpaceX rocket carrying a U.S. military navigation satellite blasted off from Florida’s Cape Canaveral.

In December, the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX was raising $500 million, taking its valuation to $30.5 billion.

The Hawthorne, California-based company had earlier outlined plans for a trip to Mars in 2022, to be followed by a manned mission to the red planet by 2024.

Another Elon Musk company, electric car maker Tesla Inc , said in June it was cutting 9 percent of its workforce by removing several thousand jobs across the company in cost reduction measures.

 
…

Uganda’s growing debt is sustainable, and the country is not at risk of losing state assets to China, the country’s finance minister, Matia Kasaija, said this week.

Uganda’s auditor-general warned in a report released this month that public debt from June 2017 to 2018 had increased from $9.1 billion to $11.1 billion.

The report — without naming China — warned that conditions placed on major loans were a threat to Uganda’s sovereign assets. 

It said that in some loans, Uganda had agreed to waive sovereignty over properties if it defaults on the debt — a possibility that Kasaija rejected.

“China taking over assets? … in Uganda, I have told you, as long as some of us are still in charge, unless there is really a catastrophe, and which I don’t see at all, that will make this economy going behind. So, … I’m not worried about China taking assets. They can do it elsewhere, I don’t know. But here, I don’t think it will come,” he said.

China is one of Uganda’s biggest country-lenders, with about $3 billion in development projects through state-owned banks.

China’s Exim Bank has funded about 85 percent of two major Ugandan power projects — Karuma and Isimba dams. It also financed and built Kampala’s $476 million Entebbe Express Highway to the airport, which cuts driving time by more than half. China’s National Offshore Oil Corporation, France’s Total, and Britain’s Tullow Oil co-own Uganda’s western oil fields, set to be tapped by 2021.

Economist Fred Muhumuza says China’s foot in Uganda’s oil could be one way it decides to take back what is owed. 

“They might determine the price, as part of recovering their loan,” he said. “By having a foot in there they will say fine, we are going to pay you for oil. But instead of giving you $60 a barrel, you owe us. We’ll give you $55. The $5 you are paying the old debt. But we are reaching a level where you don’t see this oil being an answer to the current debt problem.”

China’s reach

Uganda’s worries about China seizing national assets are not the first in Africa.

A leaked December report in Kenya showed China was promised parts of Mombasa Port as collateral for financing a $3 billion railway it built from the port to Nairobi. Both Chinese and Kenyan officials have denied that the port’s ownership is at risk.

Reports in September that China was taking over Zambia’s state power company over unpaid debt rippled across Africa, despite government denials.

But the fear of a Chinese takeover of a sovereign state’s assets over debt is not completely without merit. Struggling to pay back loans to state-owned Chinese firms, Sri Lanka in 2017 handed over a strategic port.
…

Despite the U.S. stock market recovery, Macy’s and American Airlines’ revised revenue forecasts for 2018 have sent their stock prices spiraling. Other retail stocks fell, too, including J.C. Penney, Nordstrom and Kohl’s. The reports come amid news of another iconic department store, Sears, fighting for survival. But U.S. trade and financial officials say the U.S. economy is on solid ground and will continue to grow for years to come. VOA’s Zlatica Hoke reports.
…

The 800,000 federal workers who are not being paid or are working without pay during the partial government shutdown were the first to feel its impact. But as Anna Kook reports, other segments of the economy are also being hurt, especially in Washington, home to the largest number of federal workers in the country.
…

Rising global authoritarianism, trade protectionism and the weakening of global institutions threaten U.S. businesses, the head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned Thursday.

In his annual address, Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue said for now the U.S. economy is strong and business owners are consistently optimistic, crediting “deregulation and tax reform.”

But Donohue also defended the system of alliances and multilateral institutions set up by the United States after World War II – an implicit criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies.

“The U.S. and our allies spent the last 70 years working to expand democracy and freedom,” Donohue said. “Today, we face the task of rebuilding domestic consensus for supporting democracy abroad.”

Donohue also warned against domestic political dysfunction, including the inability of U.S. lawmakers to pass immigration reform.

The comments come amid a prolonged partial government shutdown related to President Donald Trump’s demand for Congress to provide funds to build a wall on the southern U.S. border.

Building the wall would fulfill a key campaign promise for Trump, who regularly portrays immigrants as a threat. Though he didn’t criticize Trump directly, Donohue said immigrants are crucial to the U.S. economy.

“Employers don’t have the workers they need at every skill level in key industries such as health, agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation,” Donohue said. “Our nation must continue to attract and welcome industrious and innovative people from all over the world.”

U.S. lawmakers, he said, should reach a compromise that would provide legal protection for the so-called Dreamers, who came to the U.S. illegally as children. He also called for Congress to approve the “resources necessary to secure the border.”

Donohue also slammed Trump’s trade policies, saying tariffs on China and other countries are “taxes paid by American families and American businesses, not by foreigners.”

“Instead of undermining our own economy, let’s work with our allies to apply pressure on China and use the tools provided by the U.S. trade and international laws that we helped create,” he said.
…

Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage — hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.

Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairy tale for their investors.

The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry — a key sector — as the country’s economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.

After a long period of solid growth, Turkey’s economy contracted 1.1 percent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.

The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 percent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.

The villas close to the town center of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group’s Burj Al Babas project.

But the development of 732 villas and a shopping center — which began in 2014 — is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.

It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.

Driving force 

Sarot Group filed for bankruptcy protection after some of their Gulf customers could not pay for the villas they had bought as part of the $200 million (175 million euros) project, Sarot’s deputy chairman, Mezher Yerdelen, said.

So far, $100 million has been spent on the project.

“Some of the sales had to be cancelled,” Yerdelen told AFP, after the company sold 351 villas to Arab investors.

The villas are worth between $400,000 and $500,000 each. They were designed with the Gulf buyers in mind, architect Yalcin Kocacalikoglu said.

While the drop in oil prices hurt its Gulf customers, Sarot Group was also hit by “the negative impact of the economic fluctuations on construction costs” in Turkey, Yerdelen said.

Despite a legal battle over its bankruptcy status, Yerdelen said the company can continue making sales and that he hopes the project will be inaugurated in October 2019.

Yet the Al Babas project is hardly alone. Unfinished and empty housing projects are strewn across the country, testimony to the trouble the construction sector, and the wider economy, now finds itself in. 

The construction sector has been a driving force of the Turkish economy under Erdogan, who has overseen growth consistently above the global average since he came to power in 2003.

But the sector contracted 5.3 percent on-year in the third quarter of 2018.

“Three out of four companies seeking bankruptcy protection or bankruptcy are construction companies,” said Alper Duman, associate professor at Izmir University of Economics.

Turkey’s ‘locomotive’

“Whether we call it a construction bubble or a housing bubble, there is a bubble in Turkey,” he said.

He pointed to unsold housing stock as the main indicator of this, with data showing in that over the past 16 years 10.5 million apartments have been built but only eight million have been approved for use. 

“There is a high risk this bubble will burst,” he said.

Trade Minister Ruhsar Pekcan said in mid-December that 846 companies had applied for bankruptcy protection since March 2018 but opposition daily Sozcu claimed in October the figure was more than 3,000.

Turkish Chamber of Civil Engineers head Cemal Gokce expressed pessimism, predicting “more bankruptcy protection applications, bankruptcies” among construction companies.

He said too many homes have been built in Turkey.

And most are not luxury villas like Burj Al Babas with its style reminiscent of the Sleeping Beauty Castle at Disney theme parks, but simple apartments and homes for ordinary Turks.

The construction confidence index of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) fell 2.1 percent in December to 55.4, after 56.6 in the previous month. Anything below 100 indicates a pessimistic outlook.

However, Kerim Alain Bertrand, who previously headed up a firm that provided and analyzed data on Turkey’s real estate market, said recently he was more optimistic, partly due to the country’s growing population.

“The construction sector is this country’s locomotive sector,” he said. 

While there will be a consolidation in the sector, it will “continue to be kept alive” by the young population, he added.

The median age of the population in Turkey was 31.7 in 2017, according to TurkStat, compared to 42.8 in the European Union.
…

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel replaced his transport and finance ministers this week in his first Cabinet reshuffle since forming his own government in July and amid a cash crunch and growing discontent with the island’s transport sector.

Cuban state media said Wednesday that Transport Minister Adel Yzquierdo, 73, and Finance Minister Lina Pedraza, 63, had been “freed from their roles” without explaining why, adding they would be given “other responsibilities.”

Both had been originally been named by former President Raul Castro during his 10-year mandate and reconfirmed in their roles by Diaz-Canel, who took office from the 87-year-old in April.

They will be replaced by the respective vice ministers in each ministry, Eduardo Rodriguez, 52, and Meisi Bolanos, 48.

​Public transport mess

Some Cubans questioned the logic of promoting those who had also overseen strategies they deemed had failed.

Transport is one of the top complaints of Cubans living in the capital, with new regulations vastly reducing the number of private collective taxis on the road that had supplemented the creaking public transport system.

Many Cubans say they are struggling to get around and it is taking them far longer and costing more to do so.

“Transport is awful,” said Maritza Carrion, waiting for a bus in the business district of Vedado.

In one of his last public appearances, Yzquierdo announced on state television in December that Cuba was importing hundreds of microbuses and buses to alleviate the transport shortage.

The government has periodically done so in the past, only partly resolving the chronic transport shortage for a short while.

​National airline

Meanwhile Cuba’s national airline Cubana has had to slash flights over the last year because of a lack of planes that it blamed partly on the decades-old U.S. trade embargo.

It also faced a plane crash that killed 112, its deadliest in nearly 30 years, just weeks after Diaz-Canel took office.

“What we need are real solutions because it’s been nearly 60 years that we’ve been behind on transport,” said Yadier Osorio, 41. “The government still hasn’t found a solution.”

Under the article on state-run website Cuba debate about the Cabinet changes, many readers called for greater transparency over such decisions. Growing internet access is fostering greater public debate online and accountability from officials.
…

Young people from around the world who provided low-cost child care for American families will share in a proposed $65.5 million settlement of a lawsuit brought by a dozen former au pairs against the companies that bring the workers to the United States. 

Nearly 100,000 au pairs, mostly women, who worked in American homes over the past decade will be entitled to payment under the proposed settlement filed in Denver federal court Wednesday, a month before the case brought by a dozen former au pairs from Colombia, Australia, Germany, South Africa and Mexico was set to go to trial.  

They claimed 15 companies authorized to bring au pairs to the United States colluded to keep their wages low, ignoring overtime and state minimum wage laws and treating the federal minimum wage for au pairs as a maximum amount they can earn. In some cases, the lawsuit said, families pushed the limits of their duties, requiring au pairs to do things like feed backyard chickens, help families move and do gardening, and not allowing them to eat with the family. 

“This settlement, the hard-fought victory of our clients who fought for years on behalf of about 100,000 fellow au pairs, will be perhaps the largest settlement ever on behalf of minimum wage workers and will finally give au pairs the opportunity to seek higher wages and better working conditions,” said David Seligman, director of Denver-based Towards Justice, which filed the lawsuit in 2014. It was later litigated by New York-based firm Boies Schiller Flexner. 

Companies deny wrongdoing 

Under the settlement, which still must be approved by a judge, the companies agreed to make sure au pairs are informed about their legal rights in the future, but they denied any wrongdoing. 

Lawyers now need to track down au pairs who came to the U.S. on J-1 visas between Jan. 1, 2009, and Oct. 28, 2018, and have set up a website to help spread the word about the deal. 

While sometimes confused with nannies, au pairs have much less experience and earn a lot less.   

The program, overseen by the U.S. State Department, was launched as a cultural exchange program in 1986 as demand for child care grew. At first there were only 3,000 participants as part of a pilot, but last year there were over 20,000. The program occupies a gray area between work and an international relations effort, and critics say that makes it ripe for abuse.  

The sponsors said they were just following regulations from the State Department — which last adjusted au pair pay to $195.75 for a 45-hour work week in 2009 after the federal minimum wage rose to $7.25. Their hourly wage has actually been $4.25 though: Families were told to deduct 40 percent of their pay to cover the room and board they’re required to provide the au pairs, a practice challenged by the lawsuit. 

Too costly

In court filings, the sponsors argued requiring families to pay more in states with higher minimum wages would destroy the program by making au pairs unaffordable, hurting foreign policy goals. 

According to a 2016 report on U.S. child care by the Washington-based think tank New America, the average cost of full-time care in a child care center for children up to 4 years old is $9,589 a year for each child, more than the average cost of in-state college tuition. The average cost of full-time care at home with a nanny was $28,353 — 53 percent of the median U.S. household income and nearly three times the annual pay for an au pair.   

The practice of having au pairs — French for “on par with” — developed in postwar Europe, where young people lived with families in other countries to learn a language in exchange for helping with child care and some housework. In Europe, au pairs generally are limited to working 30 hours a week. 

Sarah Azuela said the ad she saw her final year of college in Mexico promised coming to the United States to work as an au pair would be the best year of her life, full of travel, meeting new people and becoming part of an American family. But she says what grew into a two-year stay turned out to be the worst time of her life, with her feeling more like a slave subject to the whims of her host families than a member of the household.  

At her last placement — working for a single mother in Virginia — Azuela said that in addition to helping care for three children, she cooked all the meals, cleaned, planted flowers and packed the family’s belongings and helped move them twice, first to an interim apartment and then to a permanent home. 

Positives

Nevertheless, Azuela was grateful her host mother gave her time to study for a business certificate at a university, which led her to extend her stay, and for not yelling or threatening to hit her as a previous host had done. 

“I don’t wish anyone to experience anything like this,” Azuela, who is from Hermosillo, Mexico, but now lives in Wisconsin, said about why she joined in the lawsuit.

Meanwhile, a related case challenging whether Massachusetts had the right to protect au pairs in its domestic workers’ bill of rights, since they are regulated by the federal government, is pending in federal appeals court. The State Department said in a court filing in September that federal law requires only that au pairs are paid the federal minimum wage, arguing federal law specifically states when other international guest workers, like camp counselors and teachers, are entitled to make more.  
…

China approved five genetically modified (GM) crops for import on Tuesday, the first in about 18 months in a move that could boost its overseas grains purchases and ease pressure from the United States to open its markets to more farm goods.

The United States is the world’s biggest producer of GM crops, while China is the top importer of GM soybeans and canola.

U.S. farmers and global seed companies have long complained about Beijing’s slow and unpredictable process for approving GM crops for import, stoking trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

The approvals, announced on the agriculture ministry’s website, were granted while a U.S. trade delegation is meeting with its counterparts in the Chinese capital this week.

“It’s a goodwill gesture towards the resolution of the trade issue,” said a China representative of a U.S. agricultural industry association.

“It’s been in the system for a long time but they chose today to release this good news,” he added, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The approved products included DowDuPont Inc.’s DP4114 Qrome corn and DAS-44406-6 soybean, known as Enlist E3, as well as the SYHT0H2 soybean developed by Bayer CropScience and Syngenta but now held by German chemical company BASF.

The other two newly approved products – BASF’s RF3 canola and Bayer-owned Monsanto’s glyphosate-tolerant MON 88302 canola – had been waiting six years for permission.

The approvals came as farmers in North America were deciding which seeds to plant this spring. China before the trade war bought some 60 percent of U.S. soybeans and U.S. farmers do not widely plant varieties it has not approved.

The newly approved canola will allow farmers in Canada to boost production, according to Jim Everson, president of industry group the Canola Council.

“The industry expects growers will produce $400 million more canola every year using the same amount of land – a step-change for canola productivity,” Everson said in a statement.

Five other products known to be seeking approvals were not given the green light, including two GM alfalfa products developed by Monsanto and two DowDuPont soybean traits.

Corteva Agriscience, the agriculture unit of DowDuPont, said, “We are happy to see the regulatory approval of our seed traits progressing in China.”

Bayer said in a statement it welcomed the news but noted “many of these products were stuck in China’s regulatory process for many years and others were not granted approvals, underscoring the need for continued improvement in China’s regulatory processes.”

Chinese officials met their U.S. counterparts in Beijing on Monday for the first face-to-face talks since U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in December to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled global markets.

China had not approved any GM crops for import since July 2017, when it cleared two products following high-level talks with Washington. It also approved two products in June 2017.

China’s scientific advisory board on GM crops met in June but did not give the go-ahead for imports of any products.

“China’s approval of the new GMO products is paving the way for China to import large volumes of U.S. soybeans in the future. It is a positive signal,” said Li Qiang, chief analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. Ltd.

The truce in the Sino-U.S. trade war prompted a resumption of U.S. soybean purchases. Buying had slumped after China imposed a 25 percent import duty on U.S. shipments of oilseed on July 6 in response to U.S. tariffs.

Only a Fraction

China does not allow the planting of genetically modified food crops, but imports of GM crops such as soybeans and corn for animal feed are fine.

The country, the world’s biggest soybean consumer, has so far purchased only about 5 million tons of the 2018 U.S. soy harvest, a fraction of its typical purchases.

The United States has demanded that China change its GM crop import application process to make it more transparent, timely and based on scientific methods.

The latest approvals should not be taken as a sign that China is conceding to those demands, said a China-based industry source, who also asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

“It’s another piece of evidence that China’s approval process is not entirely scientific but political,” said the source, who also believed the approvals were timed for the trade visit.

The ministry also announced on Tuesday the extension of import approvals for 26 other GM crops by a further three years.
…

Venezuela’s opposition-run congress on Tuesday issued a resolution calling deals between state-run oil company PDVSA and U.S. and French companies announced this week illegal, since they had not been sent to lawmakers for approval.

The body said the oilfield deals with France’s Maurel & Prom and little-known U.S. company Erepla violated article 150 of Venezuela’s constitution, which requires that contracts signed between the state and foreign companies be approved by the National Assembly, as Venezuela’s congress is known. 

“They are giving concessions that violate the law,” said lawmaker Jorge Millan, mentioning the two contracts.

Congress, largely stripped of its power since the opposition took it over in 2016, is unlikely to be able block the deals from going forward. But the rejection could create legal complications under a future government.

Maduro is set to be inaugurated for his second consecutive term on Thursday following a May vote considered a sham by the domestic opposition and many foreign governments. A regional bloc of Latin American countries last week called on Maduro, a protege of the late Hugo Chavez, not to take office.

The deals are part of Maduro’s effort to reverse a sharp decline in the OPEC nation’s crude output that has crippled its economy. Erepla said it would invest up to $500 million in three fields, while Maurel & Prom said it would invest up to $400 million for a 40 percent stake in an oilfield joint venture.

PDVSA did not respond to a request for comment. Maurel & Prom did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside of normal business hours in France.

A spokesman for Erepla, registered in Delaware in November and part-owned by a prominent Florida Republican donor and shipping magnate, said Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law “allows PDVSA to contract with companies like Erepla to execute field services without any additional approvals required.”

Referring to the Erepla deal during the congressional session earlier on Tuesday, Millan said that while PDVSA referred to the agreement as an oilfield service contract, “the company will be conducting oil exploration and production activities.”

Maurel & Prom Chief Executive Michel Hochard said the company would act “in accordance with the instructions given” by Maduro and Oil Minister Manuel Quevedo, according to a statement attributed to him in a PDVSA press release.

 
…

The World Bank is downgrading its outlook for the global economy this year, citing rising trade tension, weakening manufacturing activity and growing financial stress in emerging-market countries.

In a report titled “Darkening Skies,” the anti-poverty agency said Tuesday that it expects the world economy to grow 2.9 percent in 2019, down from the 3 percent it forecast back in June. It would be the second straight year of slowing growth: The global economy expanded 3 percent last year and 3.1 percent in 2017.

‘Risks are rising’

“Global growth is slowing, and the risks are rising,” Ayhan Kose, the World Bank economist who oversees forecasts, said in an interview. “In 2017, the global economy was pretty much firing on all cylinders. In 2018, the engines started sputtering.”

The bank left its forecast for the U.S. economy unchanged at 2.5 percent this year, down from 2.9 percent in 2018. It predicts 1.6 percent growth for the 19 countries that use the euro currency, down from 1.9 percent last year; and 6.2 percent growth for China, the world’s second-biggest economy, versus 6.5 percent in 2018.

The bank upgraded expectations for the Japanese economy, lifting its growth forecast to 0.9 percent, up from 0.8 percent in 2018.

President Donald Trump, declaring that years of U.S. support for free trade had cost America jobs, last year slapped import taxes on foreign dishwashers, solar panels, steel, aluminum and $250 billion in Chinese products. Other countries retaliated with tariffs of their own in disputes that have yet to be resolved.

The exchange of tariffs is taking a toll on world trade. The bank predicts that the growth of world trade will slow to 3.6 percent this year from 3.8 percent in 2018 and 5.4 percent in 2017. Slowing trade is hurting manufacturers around the world.

Rising interest rates

Rising interest rates are also pinching emerging-market governments and companies that borrowed heavily when rates were ultra-low in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 Great Recession. As the debts roll over, those borrowers have to refinance at higher rates. A rising dollar is also making things harder for emerging-market borrowers who took out loans denominated in the U.S. currency.

“Now debt service is eating into government revenues, making it more difficult (for governments) to fund essential social services,” said World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva, who will replace bank president Jim Yong Kim on an interim basis when he leaves at the end of January.

The bank slashed its forecast for 2019 growth for Turkey, Argentina, Iran and Pakistan, among others.
…

Hospitals in Zimbabwe are turning away patients as a strike by doctors enters its sixth week. There is no end in sight to the strike, as President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government says it cannot meet the doctors’ demands.

The Parirenyatwa Group of Hospitals, Zimbabwe’s largest treatment center, is largely empty as a doctors’ strike that began December 1 drags on.

Sixty-nine-year-old Kasirina Zibveka had a lung infection in September, according to her medical records. After numerous tests were done, it was confirmed that her right lung had gone bad and needed to be removed.

But by then, doctors were on strike. She was discharged December 13 and was told to return Monday for the ailing lung to be removed. But with the strike unresolved, that did not happen.

Her daughter, Margret Chikoti, says the family has paid for her treatment, but only nurses are attending to her mother.

“We have no idea what is really happening to her since December 13,” she said. “All we see is her discharging some blood stained stinking fluids [through a hole pierced by nurses under her right breast]. What is happening inside her body? Is it getting worse? We just give her painkillers and use ointment to clean her wound. We hope that their negotiations [doctors and government] bear fruit and they return to work.”

Doctors held a meeting Monday and resolved to remain on strike until their demands are met. The doctors want the government to equip hospitals with modern technology, sufficient medicine and protective clothing for doctors.

They also want to be paid in U.S. dollars instead of Zimbabwe’s depreciating currency, known as bondnotes.

“We will not accept the money that they are refusing. We want the money that buys,” Zimbabwe Hospital Doctors Association Vice President Marambire Sinaravo Jongwe said this to his members. “We are very understanding people, we are very lenient to our government. They are just trying to ignore us, they are very insincere to doctors. But yet we are saving the public, the general of Zimbabwe. For our patients we care, the government does not care.”

The doctors also say they do not want to prescribe drugs that are not in stock, a practice that forces patients to seek out black market drugs.

The Medicines Control Authority of Zimbabwe has warned about such drugs being fake, expired and unsafe to use.

The government, meanwhile, said last week it is not in a position to pay doctors or any civil servants in U.S. dollars.

Officials say they have imported medicines and are now stocking hospitals. But with doctors still on strike, that news might not be enough to help patients like Kasirina Zibveka.
…

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said there is “a very good chance” that the United States and China will reach a trade agreement. 

Ross told CNBC he is hopeful such a deal would address “all the key issues.”

Working-level trade talks between the United States and China began Monday in Beijing with negotiators for the world’s two biggest economies trying to resolve tariff disputes that have roiled world markets in recent weeks.

In a sign the meeting was off to a good start, China’s economic czar, Vice Premier Liu He, dropped by the talks on Monday to encourage the negotiators.

While Chinese officials expressed optimism at the start of the two-day talks, Beijing at the same time complained about the sighting of the U.S.S. McCampbell, a warship, in what it said were Chinese waters near disputed islands in the South China Sea.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said China had made “stern complaints” with the United States about the sighting of the destroyer, but the trade talks went ahead as scheduled.

There was no immediate U.S. response to the Chinese complaint.

Few details have emerged from the trade talks, which are scheduled to run through Tuesday.

​The trade talks are the result of an agreement last month between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to stop the tit-for-tat tariff conflict between the two countries for 90 days starting on New Year’s Day. 

Trump said last week, “I think we’ll have a deal with China.” 

Lu said the two countries have agreed to hold “positive and constructive” discussions.

“From the beginning we have believed that China U.S. trade friction is not a positive situation for either country or the world economy,” Lu said. “China has the good faith, on the basis of mutual respect and equality, to resolve the bilateral trade frictions.”

​The talks are occurring as Chinese growth — 6.5 percent in the July-to-September period — fell to its lowest point in a decade. There are concerns that U.S. growth, 3.4 percent in the third quarter, is also slowing even as the country’s unemployment rate remains nearly at a five-decade low.

Even so, Lu said, “China’s development has ample tenacity and huge potential. We have firm confidence in the strong long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy.”

The United States has long complained about access to the vast Chinese market and Beijing’s demands U.S. companies reveal their technology advances.
…

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Monday that his crackdown against fuel theft was yielding positive results, even as the intervention sparked severe fuel shortages in parts of the country and long lines of angry motorists.

In a bid to eliminate years of mounting theft, state oil firm Pemex has changed its distribution, triggering shortfalls in at least six states, including Guanajuato, a major car-making hub in central Mexico.

Guanajuato’s state government said that less than one third of the state’s gas stations were open on Monday.

Lopez Obrador told a news conference the government had not established a date for when operations would return to normal, but stressed that supply was not in danger.

“We are changing the whole distribution system, that’s the reason for the shortage. We have enough gasoline,” he said.

Mexican television showed long lines of drivers waiting to fill up in central states as well as Jalisco in the west and Tamaulipas in the north.

Years of fuel theft by criminal groups and others by tapping pipelines and stealing tanker trucks has led to losses totaling billions of dollars for public coffers.

Lopez Obrador’s government has ordered the armed forces to intervene in Pemex’s facilities, including one refinery.

“The supply will normalize, and at the same time we are going to guarantee that fuel is not stolen,” said Lopez Obrador, who took office in December. “We have seen a reduction in theft like never before … but we still have work to do.”

Guanajuato’s governor Diego Sinhue told local radio that of the state’s 415 gas stations, only 115 were open. In Leon, Guanajuato’s biggest city with a population of more than 1.5 million, only 7 of 196 stations were open on Sunday, he said.

“Fuel is becoming a serious problem,” said Sinhue, a member of the opposition center-right National Action Party (PAN). “People are really angry about this shortage.”

Sinhue said the army had informed him it had taken control of the state’s Salamanca refinery on Monday morning. There, members of the armed forces were monitoring tankers going in and out of the facility, as well as the pressure of pipelines.

Energy Minister Rocio Nahle offered an apology on Mexican radio for the shortages. Asked when the problem would be fixed, she said it was in the process of being “normalized.”
…

India’s cabinet on Monday backed proposals to reserve 10 percent of government jobs for Indians outside the higher income brackets, a plan the main opposition party suggested was an attempt by the government to lure back voters as an election nears.

The initiative is expected to mainly benefit the upper echelons of India’s centuries-old Hindu caste system, which has traditionally been a core voter base for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party.

Modi must call a national election by May and was dealt a setback in December when the BJP lost power to the opposition Congress party in three states, its biggest defeat since he took office in 2014.

Two BJP sources said the quota plan would benefit people from other religions not covered by existing affirmative action — the reason why lower caste Hindus and India’s indigenous tribes were excluded from it.

According to the government bill, the recipients must also be classed as “economically weak,” which the sources said was defined as anyone with annual income below 800,000 rupees ($11,500) and owning fewer than five acres of land.

In 2017, the average income in India was $1,939.60, according to the World Bank.

The states the BJP lost included Rajasthan, one of four — the others being Maharashtra, Gujarat and Haryana — in which upper caste land-owning farming communities have held large protests in recent years demanding quotas for government jobs.

More broadly, Modi has been criticized for failing to deliver jobs for young people and better conditions for farmers.

“The … Modi government has suddenly woken up to the woes of [the] economically poor, facing imminent defeat in the 2019 elections,” Congress spokesman Randeep Singh Surjewala said of the quota plan.

“Creating reservations in jobs may just prove to be one more ‘Jumla’ [gimmick] for the purpose of election promises.”

Ashwini Kumar Choubey, junior health minister and a BJP member, welcomed the proposal, calling it “historic.”

Caste system

Hindus, who account for about four-fifths of India’s 1.3 billion people, were traditionally grouped into thousands of castes, whose membership is determined by birth.

The lower castes have faced various forms of discrimination including segregation and social boycotts.

There have been attempts to reduce caste-related inequality, and the country has had many lower caste leaders, including current president Ram Nath Kovind.

But introducing quotas for lower castes has always been a contentious issue and has led to violent protests, though India’s income levels and expenditure patterns remain largely linked to caste.

The government is expected to submit the quota bill to the lower house of parliament on Tuesday. Modi’s BJP has a majority there, but not in the upper house.
…

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross predicted on Monday that Beijing and Washington could reach a trade deal that “we can live with” as officials from the world’s two largest economies resumed talks in a bid to end their trade dispute.

Ross told CNBC the immediate trade issues would be easiest to tackle while enforcement issues and structural reforms, such as intellectual property rights and market access, would be more challenging to resolve.

“I think there’s a very good chance that we will get a reasonable settlement that China can live with, that we can live with and that addresses all of the key issues,” Ross said in an interview with CNBC.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing had the “good faith” to work with the United States to resolve trade frictions as Chinese officials met their U.S. counterparts in Beijing for the first face-to-face talks since U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in December to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has roiled global markets.

Trump said on Sunday that trade talks with China were going very well and that weakness in the Chinese economy gave Beijing a reason to work toward a deal. Ross told CNBC the talks were being held with appropriate-level staff and would help determine how the administration moves forward.

The two sides agreed to hold “positive and constructive” dialogue to resolve economic and trade disputes in accordance with the consensus reached by their respective leaders, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang told a regular news briefing.

“From the beginning we have believed that China-U.S. trade friction is not a positive situation for either country or the world economy. China has the good faith, on the basis of mutual respect and equality, to resolve the bilateral trade frictions.”

Trump imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods last year and has threatened more to pressure Beijing to change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to intellectual property to hacking. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own.

“As for whether the Chinese economy is good or not, I have already explained this. China’s development has ample tenacity and huge potential,” Lu said. “We have firm confidence in the strong long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy.”

Lu also said Vice President Wang Qishan would attend the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in late January, but added that he had not yet heard of any arrangements for a meeting with Trump there.

By Monday evening, few details had emerged of the trade talks, which were scheduled to run through Tuesday.

Although the talks were held at a vice-ministerial level, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who has led trade negotiations with the United States and is a top economic adviser to Xi, made an unexpected appearance at the meetings Monday, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

The U.S. delegation, led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish, includes under secretaries from the U.S. departments of agriculture, commerce, energy and treasury, as well as senior officials from the White House.

No ‘white flag’

Tu Xinquan, a Chinese trade expert at Beijing’s University of International Business and Economics, told Reuters before talks began that the meetings would likely focus on technical issues and leave major disagreements to more senior officials.

“China’s economy is significantly slowing down, and the U.S. stock market is declining quickly. I think the two sides need some kind of agreement for now,” Tu said.

Data last week showed manufacturing has slowed in both China and the United States, though the U.S. Labor Department on Friday reported a surge in new jobs in December along with higher wages.

Officials have given scant details on concessions that China might be willing to make to meet U.S. demands, some of which would require structural reforms unpalatable for Chinese leaders.

Even if a trade agreement is reached soon, analysts say it would be no panacea for China’s economy, which is expected to continue decelerating in coming months.

China’s stridently nationalist Global Times tabloid said in an editorial late Sunday that statements from both sides that they hoped to reach a deal were cause for optimism, but that Beijing would not cave in to U.S. demands.

“If China was going to raise the white flag, it would have done it already,” the paper said.
…

The trappings of success continue to arrive for K-pop sensation BTS, the latest a contract with the toy company Mattel which secured rights to produce dolls of the boy band.

And Mattel is not beyond riding those K-pop coattails. Shares of Mattel Inc. spiked almost 9 percent Monday, a day after the toymaker announced a global licensing agreement that also includes collectible figures and games.

The South Korean boy band, made up of members RM, Jin, SUGA, j-hope, Jimin, V and Jung Kook, last year became the first Korean pop group to reach No. 1 on the Billboard top 200.

BTS is an acronym of Bangtan Sonyeondan or “Beyond the Scene.” The band debuted in June 2013.
…

A U.S. trade delegation has arrived in Beijing.

The group is in China to hold two days of talks, beginning Monday, focusing on how best to carry out an agreement reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to postpone new tariff hikes.

On December 1, the two leaders agreed to complete talks about technology, intellectual property and cyber theft issues within 90 days, and hold off on new tariffs in the meantime.

U.S. officials have said that if the talks fail to produce a satisfactory agreement Washington will increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent.

 
…

China has sounded a positive note ahead of trade talks this week with Washington, but the two sides face potentially lengthy wrangling over technology and the future of their economic relationship.

Both sides have expressed an interest in settling their tariff fight over Beijing’s technology ambitions. Yet neither has indicated its stance has changed since a Dec. 1 agreement by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to postpone further increases.

Envoys will have “positive and constructive discussions” during meetings Monday and Tuesday, said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang.

The American side is led by a deputy U.S. trade representative, Jeffrey D. Gerrish, according to the U.S. government. Neither side gave details of their agenda but Gerrish’s delegation includes agriculture, energy, commerce, treasury and State Department officials.

The Chinese government gave no details of who would represent Beijing.

The talks are going ahead despite tensions over the arrest of a Chinese tech executive in Canada on U.S. charges related to possible violations of trade sanctions against Iran.

Trump imposed tariff increases of up to 25 percent on $250 billion of Chinese imports over complaints Beijing steals or pressures companies to hand over technology. Beijing responded by imposing penalties on $110 billion of American goods, slowing customs clearance for U.S. companies and suspending issuing licenses in finance and other businesses.

Washington, Europe and other trading partners complain Beijing’s tactics violate its market-opening obligations.

The clash reflects American anxiety about China’s rise as a potential competitor in telecommunications and other technology. Trump wants Beijing to roll back initiatives like “Made in China 2025,” which calls for the state-led creation of global competitors in such fields as robotics and artificial intelligence. American officials worry those might erode U.S. industrial leadership.

The ruling Communist Party is reluctant to give up initiatives it sees as a path to prosperity and global influence.

China’s leaders have tried to defuse complaints by emphasizing the country’s potential as an export market. They have announced a series of regulatory changes over the past year to increase foreign access to their auto, finance and other industries.

Some Chinese officials suggest the technology initiatives might be opened to foreign companies. But they have given no details, leaving it unclear whether that will satisfy Washington.

Trump and Xi agreed to a 90-day postponement of additional tariff increases to take effect Jan. 1. But economists say that is too little time to settle all the disputes that bedevil U.S.-Chinese relations. They say Beijing’s goal probably is to show enough progress to persuade Trump to extend his deadline.

During that 90-day period, agreements “may not be reached until the last day,” said Tu Xinquan, director of the China Institute for World Trade Organization Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.

This week’s talks will focus on technical details before higher-level leaders “make hard political decisions,” Tu said.

In the longer term, the final tariffs might “remain for several years,” Tu said. “I don’t think it will proceed that fast. It must take time.”

Cooling economic growth in both countries is turning up the pressure to reach a settlement.

Chinese growth fell to a post-global crisis low of 6.5 percent in the quarter ending in September. Auto sales tumbled 16 percent in November over a year earlier. Weak real estate sales are forcing developers to cut prices.

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter, and unemployment is at a five-decade low. But surveys show consumer confidence is weakening because of concern that growth will slow this year.

Beijing has tried in vain to recruit France, Germany, South Korea and other governments as allies against Trump. They criticize his tactics but echo U.S. complaints about Chinese industrial policy and market barriers.

The European Union filed its own challenge in the World Trade Organization in June against Chinese rules that the 28-nation trade bloc said hamper the ability of foreign companies to protect and profit from their own technology.

For their part, Chinese officials are unhappy with U.S. curbs on exports of “dual use” technology with possible military applications. They complain China’s companies are treated unfairly in national security reviews of proposed corporate acquisitions, though almost all deals are approved unchanged.

Some manufacturers that serve the United States have shifted production to other countries to avoid Trump’s tariffs.

UBS said Friday that 37 percent of 200 manufacturers surveyed by the bank have shifted out of China over the past 12 months. The threat of U.S. tariff hikes was the “dominating factor” for nearly half, while others moved because of higher costs or tighter environmental regulation.

“Most firms expect the trade war to escalate,” the bank said.

 
…

A surge in U.S. job creation and some reassuring words from the head of the U.S. central bank sent U.S. stocks soaring Friday.  

The Labor Department reported a net gain of 312,000 jobs in December, far more than economists predicted. The unemployment rate, however, rose slightly, to 3.9 percent.

Many analysts said the rising unemployment rate was probably good news because rising wages prompted many jobless people to start looking for work.

People are not counted as officially unemployed unless they have searched for work in the past four weeks. In December, the labor force expanded by a healthy 419,000 people as wages rose 3.2 percent over the past year.

PNC Bank Chief Economist Gus Faucher said the data meant worries about a possible recession were probably “overblown.” Worried investors have sent stocks mostly downward in recent months in a series of drastic gains and losses driven in part by concern that the U.S. central bank might raise interest rates too quickly and choke off growth.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that Fed officials were “listening carefully” to markets that were weighing the impact of “concerns on global growth and trade negotiations.”

Dec Mullarkey of Sun Life Investment Management wrote that “markets were reassured” because the Fed made it clear it was not on course to automatically raise rates and would “dynamically adjust as new data and trends emerge.”

By the close of trading, the Dow advanced more than 700 points, as the major U.S. indexes rose more than three percent.  
…

Marriott International Inc said Friday that fewer than 383 million customer records were stolen in a massive cyberattack disclosed last month, down from its initial estimate that up to 500 million guests were affected.

The hotel operator also said that some 25.55 million passport numbers were stolen in the attack on the Starwood Hotels reservation system, 5.25 million of which were stored in plain text. Another 8.6 million encrypted payment cards were also taken in the attack, it said.

Marriott previously confirmed that passport numbers and payment cards were taken, but not said how many.

The company disclosed on Nov. 30 that it had discovered its Starwood hotels reservation database had been hacked over a four-year period in one of the largest breaches in history.

At least five U.S. states and the UK’s Information Commissioner’s Office are investigating the attack.

Marriott also said that it had completed an effort to phase out the Starwood reservations database that it acquired in September 2016 with its $13.6 billion purchase of Starwood. The hack began in 2014, a year before Marriott offered to buy Starwood.
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It sounds like a Hollywood caper: A group of investors and officials convince European banks to loan a total of $2 billion to a resource-rich African nation trying to rebuild after a bruising civil war.  

The money promptly disappears, and then this caper turns tragic.  The government doesn’t learn of the loans until three years after they happen. It defaults on the loans, and that triggers an economic crisis: the currency tumbles, prices rise, hospitals run out of basic supplies and key roads go unrepaired.  Thousands of people contract cholera – an easily preventable and treatable illness that is often caused by a breakdown of health services.

This isn’t Hollywood. This, allegedly, is Mozambique, according to an indictment that has resulted in the arrests of at least four figures in recent days, including a former finance minister.  The men are now awaiting extradition to the U.S. for their role in defrauding U.S. investors when seeking the loans.

VOA obtained a redacted copy of the indictment, issued by the U.S. District Court’s Eastern District of New York.  It accuses the four, plus another man who has not been arrested and two others who were not named, of “creat(ing) the maritime projects as fronts to raise money to enrich themselves and intentionally divert(ing) portions of the loan proceeds to pay at least $200 million in bribes and kickbacks to themselves, Mozambican government officials and others.”

Last week, South African officials arrested Mozambique’s former finance minister, Manuel Chang, on an Interpol warrant as he transited through the country.  

This, says analyst Alex Vines of the Chatham House think tank, is a very big deal. This matter has been investigated by both an independent firm and also by the British government, and until now, nothing has come of it.

“So it looked as if nothing would happen about these many millions, probably billions, of U.S. dollars that were (un)accounted for,” Vines told VOA. “So the indictment that has occurred from the U.S. District Court, Eastern District of New York, for key characters involved in this loan scandal, is very very significant and is a game-changer, I think.”

The reaction: Public vs Party?

That’s certainly the case in Mozambique, where commentator Fernando Lima notes the public has largely applauded the arrests, while the ruling Frelimo party has been silent.

“There is a sentiment of huge enthusiasm and joy, which causes a lot of irritation on the other side, meaning people related to the Frelimo party,” he told VOA  “…It caused this huge, huge embarrassment for the current government. And up to now, which is also very, very surprising, no Mozambican authorities have said anything related to the arrest of Mr. Chang. Neither the government, neither Frelimo party, neither the attorney general’s office, or our parliament.”

Vines says it’s unclear how President Filipe Nyusi – who was defense minister at the time of the secret loans – will come out of this scandal, but he says there may be a bright side for investors who are eager to put money into the nation, which will start exporting natural gas in 2023.

“The International Monetary Fund, IMF, and bilateral donors to Mozambique had suspended lending to Mozambique, or direct government lending, should I say,” he said. “They do want to move on, and so again, I think this might help clear things up so that longer term, the relationship of Mozambique with some of its international creditors and international partners can be improved.”

Rudi Krause, the South African lawyer representing the former finance minister, Manuel Chang, says they’ll fight the U.S. extradition request.

Krause said attorneys had not been given a full copy of the indictment by South African officials at the time of Chang’s arrest and so could not comment on the allegations.

VOA was unable to reach Krause after receiving the U.S. copy of the indictment, for further comment.

Chang will appear in a South African court on January 8. But the court of public opinion will also have its chance to weigh in, when Mozambique goes to the polls in October.

 
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Herb Kelleher, who changed the airline industry by helping create and lead Southwest Airlines, a low-fare carrier that made air travel more accessible to the masses, has died. He was 87. 

Southwest confirmed that Kelleher died Thursday. 

Kelleher was a lawyer in San Antonio when a client came to him in the late 1960s with the idea for a low-fare airline that would fly between big cities in Texas. Today, Southwest carries more passengers within the United States than any other airline. 

At a time when many other airlines were run by colorless finance wizards, Kelleher boasted about drinking whiskey and showed a gift for wacky marketing ploys.  
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Three former Credit Suisse Group AG bankers were arrested in London on Thursday on U.S. charges that they took part in a $2 billion fraud scheme involving state-owned companies in Mozambique, a spokesman for U.S. prosecutors said.

Andrew Pearse, Surjan Singh and Detelina Subeva were charged in an indictment in Brooklyn, New York federal court with conspiring to violate U.S. anti-bribery law and to commit money laundering and securities fraud, according to spokesman John Marzulli. They have been released on bail.

The arrests came five days after former Mozambique finance minister Manuel Chang was arrested in South Africa as part of the same criminal case, which was brought by federal prosecutors in Brooklyn.

The prosecutors will seek to have all of the defendants extradited to the United States, according to Marzulli. Lawyers for the defendants could not immediately be reached for comment after business hours in New York and London.

“The indictment alleges that the former employees worked to defeat the bank’s internal controls, acted out of a motive of personal profit, and sought to hide these activities from the bank,” Credit Suisse said in a statement. It added that the bank will continue to cooperate with authorities.

Chang oversaw Mozambique’s finances when it failed to disclose government guarantees for $2 billion in international borrowing by state-owned firms. The disclosure of those loans in 2016 plunged the southern African country into a suffocating debt crisis it is still struggling to climb out of two years later.
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