Бізнес, Новини, Фінанси

US Economic Growth Better Than First Thought

The U.S. economy grew a bit faster than first thought in the last few months of 2017, expanding at an annual rate of 2.9 percent, beating the earlier estimate by several tenths of a percent.

Wednesday’s report from the Commerce Department showed the improvement came in part from stronger consumer spending. The new figures are a routine revision made as more complete data becomes available.

The fourth-quarter figures added to several quarters of solid growth which saw the world’s largest economy expand 2.3 percent in 2017, which is significantly stronger than the prior year.

Some economists have been revising their forecasts for growth in 2018 following a major tax cut and plans to increase government spending over the next two years.

The stimulus from lower taxes and higher spending at a time of full employment is raising some concerns about inflation, and that is expected to prompt the U.S. central bank to continue raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve tries to keep inflation from rising so high or so fast that it damages the economy by using higher interest rates to cool economic activity.
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

Worries of War Between Israel, Iran Increase

Israel and Iran, with two of the most powerful militaries in the Middle East, appear on a collision course that some experts fear could ignite a regional war that might ultimately drag in the United States and Russia.

The tensions are centered in Israel’s northern neighbor Syria, where both Russia and Iran have been emboldened by their success in shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The war has occasionally spilled across Israel’s borders, causing alarm in the Jewish state.

“If a Hezbollah missile or mortar shell hits a kindergarten or a school bus — a terror attack that causes major damage in terms of Israeli lives — this would be a tactical incident that entails a strategic price,” predicts Lior Weintraub, a former Israeli diplomat and now a lecturer at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya.

“That would be translated into a significant Israeli retaliation and from there you might see a slippery slope.”

Christopher Kozak, a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, also worries about an incident spinning out of control.

“That’s why I am greatly concerned in the next several months we are going to get, if not a total regional conflagration, then at least a more direct Israel-Iran confrontation on a new third front,” he told VOA.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Lebanese Hezbollah have stationed resources along the eastern Golan Heights and deployed key commanders to the area.

“Jerusalem’s liberation is near,” hardline Iranian cleric Ebrahim Raisi said in January during a tour of the Israel-Lebanon border, where he was flanked by Hezbollah commanders and Iranian officers.

Weintraub says Israel understands there is “only one reason” for Iran to entrench itself Syria, and that is “to build a launching pad for an attack against Israel.”

Some analysts worry that the situation will only get worse if the United States renounces the nuclear non-proliferation deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), between Iran and the international community.

“Beyond allowing Iran to re-initiate a nuclear weapons program, our trashing of the deal would send a signal to Israel that Washington would countenance something as bold as an Israeli military strike on Iran,” Ned Price, a National Security Council spokesman in the Obama administration tells VOA.

“That could well be the spark that sets the region ablaze, with Hezbollah then potentially doing the bidding of Tehran in locales near and far,” says Price, who spent a decade at the Central Intelligence Agency as a senior analyst and then spokesman.

Acknowledging that tension and that “fears have been developing around the worst-case scenario”, Pierre Pahlavi, assistant professor of defense studies at the Royal Military College of Canada, says war is not inevitable.

In February, the Middle East appeared on the edge of a wider war after an Iranian drone was shot down in Israeli airspace and an Israeli fighter jet was hit by anti-aircraft fire from Syria when attacking an Iranian base. Israel retaliated by hitting a dozen more targets in Syria, including four additional purported Iranian military facilities.

 

Even before those incidents, the International Crisis Group had warned that “a broader war could be only a miscalculation away.”

Pahlavi asserts that “neither Israel nor Iran wants to start a clash that would spiral up.”

In Israel, Weintraub concurs but warns “if the sword would be on Israel’s neck, then Israel will act. And if Israel will act, there’ll be a price for it. But when you fight for your survival, you do what you have to do, and you take what you have to take.”

 

Last week, Israel openly acknowledged for the first time that it bombed a suspected nuclear reactor in Syria in 2007 and suggested the air strike should be a reminder to Tehran it will never be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

“The Iranians are absolutely aware that they have no capacity to confront the Israeli forces conventionally,” says Pahlavi, whose great uncle was the last shah of Iran. “I do believe — but maybe it’s wishful thinking, the Iranians will do whatever they have to in order to keep things under control.”

Russia has an effective coalition with Iran in the Middle East while it is also interested in managing its relationship with Israel. That has allowed Moscow generally to turn a blind eye to Israeli actions against Iran inside Syria.

If Russia has to choose between Jerusalem and Tehran, most analysts see Moscow more closely aligning with Iran.

“Do they go all the way to shooting down an Israeli jet? I don’t know if they’d go that far,” says Kozak.

Israelis express confidence they would not need American forces to help fight Iran, but they also do not expect the Trump administration to try to restrain them.

Weintraub notes that it is “very visible to all of the Middle East that the United States stands behind Israel. It means a lot, in terms of national security, for the lives of Israelis. … But I’m not talking about moving one [additional] American soldier onto the soil of the Middle East.”

The United States military intends to keep forces in Syria, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in January, not only for mopping up Islamic State and al-Qaida fighters, but also as a signal to the forces controlled by Damascus and Tehran.

However, analysts say, Washington has effectively outsourced to Moscow the job of enforcing several so-called de-escalation zones in Syria, giving it the upper hand at a time of rising tension between the two countries.

Should any of its forces be hit by U.S. strikes, such as those conducted to punish Syria for chemical attacks, Russia’s military has issued an unprecedented blunt threat.

“If lives of the Russian officers are threatened, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will retaliate against missile and launch systems,” said Army General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces, earlier in March.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone last week. Trump told reporters they discussed the Syrian civil war — which is the world’s deadliest conflict in recent decades — and that the two leaders are looking to meet soon.

Arranging such a summit may prove difficult as the climate of U.S.-Russian relations plunges to its lowest temperature since the Cold War.

Moscow on Monday vowed retaliation after the United States — joined by numerous allies — expelled dozens of its diplomats it considers spies, in response to a nerve gas attack in Britain that is blamed by the West on Russia.

 
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Бізнес, Новини, Фінанси

WTO Chief Sees No Sign of US Departure

There is no sign that the United States is distancing itself from the World Trade Organization, and negotiations are underway to avert a global trade war, WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said in a BBC interview broadcast Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump has launched a series of tariff-raising moves, upsetting allies and rivals alike.

Trump is also vetoing the appointment of WTO judges, causing a backlog in disputes and threatening to paralyze what is effectively the supreme court of trade. Some trade experts have begun asking whether Trump wants to kill the WTO, whose 164 members force each other to play by the rules.

“I have absolutely no indication that the United Sates is walking away from the WTO. Zero indication,” Azevedo said in an interview on the BBC Hardtalk program, according to excerpts released early by the BBC.

Last month, Trump called the WTO a “catastrophe” and complained the United States had only a minority of its judges.

Correction

The next day, Azevedo gently set him straight, noting that the United States had an unusually good deal, since it had always had one of the seven judges.

Asked whether the WTO should be thinking about a Plan B without the United States, Azevedo told the BBC that he had not heard anything to suggest that such a situation was in the cards.

“Every contact that I have in the U.S. administration assures me that they are engaging,” he said.

The question of whether U.S. tariffs were legal could be settled only by a WTO dispute panel, but the damage from such unilateral actions would be felt much more quickly as other countries retaliated, leading to a global trade war, he said.

“I don’t think we are there yet, but we are seeing the first movements towards it, yes,” he said.

Nobody believed it was a minor problem, including those in the U.S. administration, and people were beginning to understand how serious the situation was and what impact it could have on the global economy, Azevedo said.

“There are still negotiations ongoing. … We want to avoid the war, so everything that we can do to avoid being in that situation, we must be doing at this point,” he said.
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Бізнес, Новини, Фінанси

Trump Gets First Trade Deal as US, Korea Revise Agreement

U.S. President Donald Trump, who campaigned against economic agreements he considered unfair to America has his first trade deal.

The United States and South Korea have agreed to revise their sweeping six-year-old trade pact which was completed during the administration of Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama.

The agreement “will significantly strengthen the economic and national security relationships between the United States and South Korea,” according to a senior administration official in Washington.

Trump had threatened to scrap the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA), calling it “horrible.” But officials of his administration on Tuesday confirmed key aspects of the agreement which officials in Seoul had announced the previous day.

“When this is finalized it will be the first successful renegotiation of a trade agreement in U.S. history,” according to a senior U.S. official.

The tentative agreement between the United States and its sixth largest trading partner and a critical security ally in Asia comes at a time of fast-moving developments on the Korean peninsula.

In exchange for terms more favorable to American automakers, South Korea — the third largest steel exporter to the United States — is being exempted for recently announced heavy tariffs on steel rolled out by Trump. South Korea will also limit to about 2.7 tons per year shipments of steel to the United States.

“This is a huge win,” a senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters on a conference call Tuesday evening.

Trump last week also temporarily excluded other trade partners, including Canada, the European Union and Mexico from the announced import duties of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum, which came into effect on Friday.

Under the revisions to be made the KORUS FTA, South Korea is to allow American carmakers to double to 50,000 the number of vehicles that meet U.S. safety standards to Korea annually even though they do not comply with various local standards.

“The revisions to the KORUS FTA benefit both countries as they addressed the United States’ primary concern in autos trade, opening the South Korean market to additional exports of U.S. autos,” Troy Stangarone, the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, tells VOA. “For South Korea, they addresses concerns in the dispute settlement process, while the overall revisions remained relatively narrow in scope. The agreement also takes a potentially contentious issue off of the table as the United States and South Korea prepare for critical talks with North Korea.”

Vehicle emissions standards will also be eased for U.S. vehicles imported from 2021 to 2025.

The Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association immediately called on Seoul to also ease environmental and safety standards for domestic vehicle manufacturers “to offer a level playing field.”

The balance is heavily in favor of South Korea. According to U.S. government statistics, Americans bought $16 billion  worth of passenger cars while such purchases made by South Koreans totaled just $1.5 billion.

The United States, under the revised deal, will also maintain tariffs on exports of South Korean pick-up trucks until 2041, an extension from the previously agreed 2021. However, no South Korean manufacturer is currently exporting such vehicles to the U.S. market.

U.S. officials also say that South Korea has agreed to recognize U.S. standards for auto parts.

“They will reduce some of the burdensome labeling requirements when it comes to auto parts,” a senior U.S. official told reporters.

The apparent settlement of the trade dispute comes before a planned meeting between the leaders of rival South and North Korea. Trump has also accepted an invitation relayed by the South from the North’s leader, Kim Jong Un, to meet with the U.S. president. The White House on Tuesday said planning for such a summit is still proceeding but no location or date has been decided. State Department official say they are unsure it will happen by May as previously announced.

The rival Koreas have no diplomatic relations and technically remain at war since a 1953 armistice signed by armies of China and North Korea with the United Nations Command, led by the United States.
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Бізнес, Новини, Фінанси

In Niger’s Desert, Europe’s Migration Crackdown Pinches Wallets

For this ancient town on the southern edge of the Sahara, the flow of desperate migrants trying to reach Europe used to be a boon, not a burden.

Abdoul Ahmed, a 31-year-old mechanic in Agadez, measured the good years in customers. When arrivals in Europe peaked in 2015, dozens of cars came to his workshop each day to get their tires changed before setting off across the desert.

But since the European Union cracked down on migration a year later, his daily clientele has dropped to one or two. That earns him about $4, to be shared with five skinny teenage apprentices.

“Times are bad. There’s no activity,” he said, sitting along one of the few paved roads in Agadez, a mud-brick town where beat-up motorcycles outnumber cars.

For years, the old trading post in Niger has been a key stop for West Africans traveling north — mostly young men fleeing poverty in search of better opportunities abroad.

It is the place where migrants find smugglers to arrange their trip across the desert. Those ferrying the travelers earn hundreds of dollars for each person they cram into the back of a Toyota Hilux.

But smugglers have not been the only ones to benefit from the migrant boom, said Sadou Soloke, the governor of Agadez.

Cash from feeding, housing and transporting migrants fed thousands of people in the area and helped develop the impoverished region, he told Reuters.

That activity began to slow when Niger, under EU pressure, started arresting smugglers and posted soldiers across the desert in 2016. By late last year, the life had been sucked out of the once-bustling town, several residents said.

Now corners once crowded with merchants are quiet, and wide streets are empty even at midday. Men on motorcycles gather in patches of shade, waiting hours for someone to request a ride.

“We worry for the people who used to provide services to the migrants,” Soloke told humanitarian workers last month. “Now they’ve been put in a risky situation too.”

As more people move around the world — spurred by climate extremes, conflict and poverty — migration has developed an economy of its own, one many people rely on for an income.

That reality can make efforts to brake or shift migration harder — and riskier — to achieve, as they affect everything from powerful criminal networks to vulnerable people just trying to get by.

In Agadez, about 6,000 people who were directly employed in the migrant economy are now jobless, the governor said, while countless others — shopkeepers, phone sellers, mechanics — have also seen their earnings fall.

While aid agencies have swooped in to help migrants still stranded in the town, local people feel increasingly marginalized, said Ottilia Maunganidze, a migration analyst at the Africa-based Institute for Security Studies.

“The primary question they ask is … why is the aid going to people who just got here, when in fact we are suffering just as much but we’ve chosen to remain at home?” she told Reuters.

Smugglers’ earnings

Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world, ranking second to last in the latest U.N. Human Development Index.

Agadez used to survive on tourism, with Europeans flocking to see its 16th-century clay mosque and sultan’s palace, until fears of terrorism scared them away, locals said.

Then the Libyan revolution that removed Moammar Gadhafi from power created a security vacuum between Niger and the Mediterranean, and migration surged.

Three years ago, 100 to 200 overloaded pickup trucks would leave Agadez in a convoy every Monday at sundown, kicking up dust as they sped down routes once traveled by salt traders in camel caravans.

Each trip to Libya could earn a smuggler about $5,000, said Giuseppe Loprete, country head of the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Now smugglers charge even more, but overall earnings have plummeted since only a few vehicles make it past the checkpoints, he said.

“Communities are losing their main income,” said Loprete, explaining that migration revenues sustained not only Agadez but other desert villages along the route as well.

His organization is running cash-for-work programs in the region, paying locals to help dig wells or install electricity.

Loprete said such efforts will “buy some time” until people are able to come up with more lasting solutions.

But nothing will replace the level of income they had, he said.

Eager to occupy people with something other than migrant smuggling, the EU is also funding alternative employment programs, offering to buy ex-smugglers equipment to start farms or carpentry shops, for example.

Niger is one of several West African countries where the EU has struck or is seeking deals to cut migration, offering development aid in exchange for tighter borders, and threatening trade consequences if there is a failure to cooperate.

Local government officials said they are counting on the jobs program, which has only just got under way.

Privately, aid workers laughed when asked if they thought it would work. Used to making thousands, smugglers are unlikely to settle for meager profits from a farm stand, several said.

“I think the EU is trying,” said security analyst Maunganidze. “But the obvious challenge is that solutions have to be longer term.”

Many former smugglers will likely take up other criminal activity, such as drug trafficking, to maintain their income, she said. Some may also be drawn to join violent extremist groups in the region, she added.

Niger is warding off violence on several fronts, with Boko Haram insurgents encroaching from the south, al-Qaida-linked groups operating to the west, and various militia fighting in Libya to the north.

Risk of unrest

Conflict has yet to break out between Agadez residents and migrants stuck there, but officials, aid workers and analysts say the risk of tensions is high.

The regional health department complained last month that three dozen local and international aid groups were providing health care to migrants, while none were supporting local people, according to one source who took part in the discussion.

Aid agencies said it was easier to access international funding by working with migrants.

“[NGOs] come with good intentions, but they shouldn’t forget that locals are also in need,” said Ali Bandiare, president of Niger’s Red Cross.

Ignoring them “could create a situation that is unmanageable in terms of security,” he warned.

Off one small street in Agadez, a family sat on a dirt floor in what appeared to serve as a jewelry workshop, convenience store and living room, all at once.

On the wall were faded pictures of the patriarch posing in his turban with smiling tourists, and a certificate received by a son last year for completing a course in traditional jewelry-making organized by the IOM, the U.N. migration agency.

Abdoul Afori, 20, found the course interesting, but said there was no one to buy his goods.

“No one has helped us,” said his father, Mohamed.

Around the corner, car mechanic Ahmed scanned the dusty street as his apprentices slouched in boredom.

“With time, it will change again, God willing,” he said.
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

Greece Approved for 6.7 Billion-Euro Bailout Installment

Europe’s bailout fund on Tuesday approved a 6.7 billion-euro ($8.32 billion) loan installment to Greece as part of its third international rescue program, with payment of the first 5.7 billion euros expected this week.

The European Stability Mechanism said the approval came after the Greek government completed a series of required reforms. The funds will be used to service public debt and clear domestic arrears.

“Today’s decision … acknowledges the hard work by the Greek government and Greek people in completing an extensive set of reforms,” said ESM head Klaus Regling. The reforms were in tax policy, privatizations and the resolution of nonperforming loans, among others.

The ESM said the initial 5.7 billion euros were to be disbursed Wednesday. The remaining 1 billion euros, to be used for clearing arrears, may be disbursed after May 1 if the country “makes progress in reducing its stock of arrears.”

Greece has depended on billions of euros from international rescue loans since 2010, and its third bailout is due to end this summer. In exchange for the money, successive governments have had to implement often painful economic and structural reforms, including tax increases and severe cuts to pensions and public spending.

Regling said he was “confident that Greece is on track to successfully exit the ESM program in August 2018, provided that the remaining reforms are implemented by the Greek government.”

Greece’s financial crisis has wiped out a quarter of the economy and led to persistently high unemployment, which continues to hover above 20 percent. The frequently unpopular reforms have also led to street protests.
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

Techno Teachers: Finnish School Tests Robot Educators

Elias, the new language teacher at a Finnish primary school, has endless patience for repetition, never makes a pupil feel embarrassed for asking a question, and can even do the “Gangnam Style” dance.

Elias is also a robot.

The language-teaching machine comprises a humanoid robot and mobile application, one of four robots in a pilot program at primary schools in the southern city of Tampere.

The robot is able to understand and speak 23 languages and is equipped with software that allows it to understand students’ requirements and helps it to encourage learning. In this trial, however, it communicates in English, Finnish and German only.

The robot recognizes the pupil’s skill levels and adjusts its questions accordingly. It also gives feedback to teachers about a student’s possible problems.

Some of the human teachers who have worked with the technology see it as a new way to engage children in learning.

“I think in the new curriculum, the main idea is to get the kids involved and get them motivated and make them active. I see Elias as one of the tools to get different kinds of practice and different kinds of activities into the classroom,” language teacher Riika Kolunsarka told Reuters.

“In that sense, I think robots and coding the robots and working with them is definitely something that is according to the new curriculum and something that we teachers need to be open-minded about.”

Elias the language robot, which stands around a foot tall, is based on SoftBank’s NAO humanoid interactive companion robot, with software developed by Utelias, a developer of educational software for social robots.

The mathematics robot — dubbed OVObot —is a small, blue machine around 25 cm (10 inches) high and resembles an owl. It was developed by Finnish AI Robots.

The purpose of the pilot project is to see if these robots can improve the quality of teaching, with one of the Elias robots and three of the OVObots deployed in schools. The OVObots will be tested for one year, while the school has bought the Elias robot, so its use can continue longer.

Using robots in classrooms is not new — teaching robots have been used in the Middle East, Asia and the United States in recent years — but modern technologies such as cloud services and 3-D printing are allowing smaller startup companies to enter the sector.

“Well, it is fun, interesting and exciting and I’m a bit shocked,” pupil Abisha Jinia told Reuters, giving her verdict on Elias the language robot.

Despite their skills in language and mathematics however, the robots’ inability to maintain discipline amongst a class of primary school children means that, for the time being at least, the human teachers’ jobs are safe.
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

Serbia-Kosovo Tensions Heighten as Russia Wades into Dispute

Tensions between Kosovo and Serbia heightened a day after a senior Serb politician was arrested and expelled in northern Kosovo, with Russia wading into the dispute and the European Union trying to avert further friction Tuesday.

Kosovo Serbs set up a roadblock in the divided town of Mitrovica to monitor access into Serb-dominated territory, and Serb politicians walked away from Kosovo’s government and threatened to form their own local administrations throughout Kosovo where minority Serbs live.

European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini made an urgent trip to Belgrade for talks with Serbia’s president in a bid to prevent a full-blown crisis from erupting. President Aleksandar Vucic’s office said in a statement that he and Mogherini agreed to find “new ways” to solve problems between Serbia and Kosovo peacefully.

Mogherini didn’t immediately comment, but the statement quoted her as saying “what happened yesterday must not be repeated.”

“The European Union expects peace to be preserved with wisdom and restraint,” Mogherini said according to the statement.

Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a strongly-worded statement, accusing the EU and the U.S. of wanting “to crudely suppress” attempts by Kosovo Serbs to “safeguard their legitimate interests.”

“It is nakedly clear that the Kosovars [Kosovo Albanians] follow the advice of their U.S. and European patrons, who trample international law and act on the basis of arbitrariness,” said the statement carried by Tass news agency.

While Russia supports Serbia’s claims over its former province, the U.S. and most Western states have recognized Kosovo’s independence a decade ago. Russia has been trying to expand its influence in the Balkans mainly through its traditional Slavic ally Serbia.

Djuric detained

The developments came a day after Marko Djuric, the head of the Serbian government office for Kosovo, was briefly detained in the divided town of Mitrovica because he entered the country without Kosovo’s official approval. Kosovo police used tear gas and stun grenades to disperse Serb protesters in Mitrovica on Monday.

Djuric said he was beaten while in detention and that his arrest was aimed at humiliating Serbs in Kosovo and as a rehearsal for a possible attempt by Kosovo police to take over northern Kosovo.

“By dragging me on the ground like a dog, pulling me by my tie, they wanted to humiliate me, thinking they can humiliate the Serbian people,” Djuric told a news conference Tuesday.

But Kosovo President Hashim Thaci denounced the incident as a provocation by Serbia.

“Monday’s events are contrary to the commitment of dialogue and building sustainable peace in Kosovo,” he said in a statement Tuesday.

‘A forced move’

Politicians representing Kosovo’s Serb minority met with Serbia’s president in Belgrade, saying they would no longer support Kosovo’s government. This could trigger a government crisis if the Serb ministers aren’t quickly replaced by Kosovo Albanians.

Goran Rakic, who heads the Serbian List in Kosovo’s parliament, said that Serbs would on their own form an association of Serb-dominated municipalities in Kosovo, which was envisaged in a European Union-mediated deal in 2013 but was never carried out by Kosovo authorities.

“This is not a one-sided move. This is a forced move,” Rakic said. “We waited for five years for them to give us what is ours. We will form only what they signed up to, what was guaranteed five years ago.”

The move could further fuel friction between Serbia and Kosovo, which declared independence against Belgrade’s wishes in 2008. In 1999, NATO intervened to stop a bloody Serb crackdown against Kosovo Albanian separatists.

On Tuesday, Kosovo Serbs blocked the main road leading from northern Kosovo to the capital, Pristina, by parking a bulldozer and a flatbed truck across it.

Djuric, whose hands were bandaged, appeared at the news conference with Kosovo Serb officials after talks with Vucic.

He said that Kosovo police officers “took selfies with me and pulled me down to my knees, with a gun pushed against my body.”

He accused unidentified Western countries of directly or indirectly supporting Kosovo’s actions.

Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj said in Pristina on Tuesday that “yesterday’s actions weren’t directed against Serb citizens in Kosovo, but against those who broke the law.”

“It is not good to make limitless testing of anyone’s decision,” Haradinaj said. “It would be good to return to the negotiating table and discuss the issues together.”
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Бізнес, Новини, Фінанси

Poll: Trump Benefiting From Economic Policies

A growing American economy and passage of a Republican tax overhaul appear to be helping President Donald Trump lift his approval ratings from historic lows, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Trump remains unpopular with the majority of Americans, 58 percent. But 42 percent say they now approve of the job he’s doing as president, up seven points from a month ago. That’s a welcome change in trajectory for a White House that has been battered by chaos, controversies and internal upheaval.

The poll suggests that at least some of the president’s improving standing is tied to the economy, which has steadily grown and added jobs, continuing a trajectory that began under President Barack Obama. Nearly half of Americans surveyed — 47 percent — say they approve of how Trump is handling the economy, his highest rating on any issue. When it comes to tax policy, 46 percent of Americans back Trump’s moves.

For Republicans, that offers a glimmer of hope as they stare down a difficult midterm election landscape and a surge of Democratic enthusiasm. With few other legislative victories from Trump’s first 14 months in office, GOP lawmakers have largely pinned their hopes for keeping control of Congress on middle-class voters feeling the impact of the tax law.

‘Fortunes will rise and fall’

“Our fortunes will rise and fall with the economy and specifically with the middle-class tax cut this fall,” said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan. Bliss urged Republican candidates to view the law as “an offensive, not defensive weapon.”

One of the GOP’s challenges, however, will be keeping the economy and tax overhaul in the spotlight through the fall given the crush of other matters roiling the White House and competing for Americans’ attention. At the White House Monday, the daily press briefing was dominated by questions about the president’s alleged affair with adult film star Stormy Daniels, a relationship he denies. Each week has seemed to bring a new departure among the president’s closest advisers. And many days, Trump is more inclined to use his Twitter megaphone to try to discredit the investigation into possible campaign contacts with Russia than promote the tax overhaul. 

Republican operatives acknowledge that even if they can break through the clutter, they still have a ways to go when it comes to explaining the $1.5 trillion tax plan to Americans. Democrats have aggressively cast the measure, which permanently slashes the tax rate for corporations and reduces taxes for the wealthiest Americans, as a boon for the rich that offers comparatively little for the middle class.

The Democratic message does appear to be breaking through with voters. Among those Americans who are familiar with the new law, 77 percent believe it helps large corporations and 73 percent say it benefits the wealthy, while 53 percent say it helps small businesses. Americans are evenly divided on whether the measure helps the middle class.

Republicans argue Democrats risk overreaching by downplaying the impact that even a small windfall from the tax bill can have for a family and individual. According to the AP-NORC poll, nearly half of those who receive a paycheck — 46 percent — say they’ve seen an increase in their take-home pay as a result of the tax law.

Heather Dilios, a 46-year-old social worker from Topsham, Maine, is among them. Dilios, a Republican, estimates she’s now taking home between $100 to $200 more per paycheck as a result of the new tax law, more than she expected when Trump signed the legislation.

Dilios said it’s more than the dollar amount that’s driving her support for the law.

“It’s more about being able to keep what is rightfully mine rather than giving it to the government,” she said.

Overall, taxes and the economy are the brightest spots for Trump, who gets lower numbers from voters on a range of other issues, including his handling of North Korea (42 percent), trade (41 percent), gun control (39 percent) and the budget deficit (35 percent).

Trump has benefited from an increasingly healthy economy that has boosted consumer and business sentiment. The 4.1 percent unemployment rate is the lowest since 2000 without the same kinds of excesses that fueled that era’s tech bubble.

Continuation of momentum

While Trump attributes the gains to his tax cuts and deregulation efforts, many economists say conditions so far are largely a continuation of the momentum from the gradual expansion that began during the Obama administration.

Trump’s most recent policy moves have also rattled financial markets and raised questions about the prospect of an economic slowdown. He slapped hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, though his administration has issued waivers to several countries. And last week, he moved to slap $60 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to promise swift retaliation.

The full scope and impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs won’t be known for some time, but the initial reaction from Americans is decidedly mixed. The AP-NORC poll finds that 38 percent support the steel and aluminum tariffs and 29 percent are opposed.

The poll also finds that just 32 percent of Americans think the tariffs will lead to an increase in jobs, compared with 36 percent who think it will lead to a decrease. Forty percent think it will lead to an increase in consumer prices, while 39 percent think it will lead to a decrease.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,122 adults was conducted March 14-19 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Respondents were first selected randomly using address-based sampling methods, and later interviewed online or by phone.
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

Germany Dragged Into Spain’s Political Crisis As Catalonia Protests Erupt Again

Spain has been plunged back into political turmoil after violent protests over the weekend in the wake of the arrest of former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont. 

The 55-year-old former leader was detained on the German-Danish border Sunday under a European arrest warrant issued by Spain, as he attempted to drive back to his adopted home in Belgium. He appeared before a court in the German town of Neumuenster on Monday for a preliminary hearing ahead of a decision on his extradition. 

Puigdemont declared independence after the semi-autonomous region of Catalonia voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum last year, though turnout was below 50 percent. 

Madrid called the vote illegal, and the Spanish government sacked the Catalan administration and imposed direct rule. Puigdemont fled to Brussels, where he has been living since being charged with rebellion.

Puigdemont’s detention triggered violent demonstrations in several Catalan cities over the weekend. At least 50 people were injured, including several police officers.

“I think it’s time for a real revolution. We need to bring this country to a complete halt,” said one pro-independence supporter who did not want to be named.

Pro-independence lawmakers and parliament workers staged a strike Monday in protest.

Paul Bekaert, Puigdemont’s lawyer in Brussels, criticized Madrid’s actions.

“The elected people are put in jail — that is [a] dictatorship. And they abuse the European warrant for political purpose. And it’s a scandal that Europe doesn’t react against the situation,” Bekaert said Monday.

German judges will have to decide whether to extradite Puigdemont — a potentially complex process, said German legal analyst Nikolaos Gazeas.

“The responsible court will have to examine whether the events that occurred in Spain, in Catalonia, the things that Mr. Puigdemont is being accused of, are punishable in Germany and would be considered criminal under German law.”

Thirteen former Catalan independence leaders have been charged with rebellion by Madrid. Five — including Puigdemont — fled overseas in the wake of the government crackdown in October and are subject to international arrest warrants. But criminal law differs across Europe, where the principle of mutual recognition is key, said Gazeas.

“If the German court rules that rebellion is not an extraditionable offense, then that would mean — if the German government agrees to this — that Puigdemont could not be charged with rebellion in Spain. But only with the offenses he was extradited for. And that would probably be the offense of embezzlement — an offense with a much lower range of sentencing, and which is not in the prime focus of Spain.”

Germany has 60 days to make a decision, but that can be extended by another 30 days, if necessary. Analysts say a decision is likely to take several days, or even weeks. 

Despite the protests in Catalonia, analysts say it’s uncertain whether his arrest will spark a revived bid to break away from Spain, as the independence movement itself is divided.
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

Closure of Seattle Russian Consulate Frustrates Travelers

The Trump administration’s decision to shutter the Russian consulate in Seattle displeased many Russian immigrants Monday, some of whom rushed to its offices in hopes of securing passports, visas and other important documents.

One woman, who identified herself as a dual U.S.-Russian citizen from Boise, Idaho, said she spent $1,000 traveling to Seattle to renew a passport so that she could visit her brother in Russia – only to be turned away. Another, Luda Rieve, of San Diego, told The Seattle Times she too was turned away after taking the day off work and flying from California to renew her passport.

Many procedures handled by the consulate require in-person appearances, and because the administration also ordered the San Francisco consulate closed last September, the only facilities remaining are in New York, Houston and Washington, D.C.

“My sister is at the consulate right now trying to get a travel passport,” David Mordekhov said, a Seattle lawyer and Moscow native who moved to the U.S. 20 years ago. “Any travel paperwork that has to do with trips to Russia, visa applications, powers of attorney and any other documents are going to be much harder to procure.”

The closure of the Seattle consulate, effective April 2, came as the United States and more than a dozen European nations kicked out Russian diplomats as punishment for Moscow’s alleged poisoning of an ex-spy in Britain. The Seattle consulate was responsible for handling requests from people in Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

The administration cited the consulate’s proximity to a submarine base, Naval Base Kitsap, as well as Boeing’s operations, but University of Washington international relations professor Don Hellmann suggested that rationale “might be a little simplistic.”

“The real thrust of intelligence these days is digital,” he said. “It’s intellectual property. We live in a hacked world. Microsoft is probably as much a target as the naval base or Boeing.”

The Seattle area is home to about 33,000 Russians, a number of whom work in the engineering or tech industries. Among them is Sergey Bobkov, an analyst for the travel website Expedia, who said Russians and Russian-Americans would to have to travel farther and go through more hoops to visit friends and family there.

“It’s been frustrating to no end, to say the least,” Bobkov said, a 34-year-old native of St. Petersburg, Russia, who holds dual citizenship. “I’m trying to get a visa for my wife to go to Russia with me in August. We will have to either fly to New York City or Washington, D.C. and handle those things in person, or we’ll have to pay someone under the table to do express services.”

He added, “It’s hard on all of us who have nothing to do with politics.”

Not everyone who showed up Monday came away empty-handed. Alex Bendetov said he was able to obtain a passport for his baby after starting the process some time ago.

“My wife acted quickly. She said, ‘We gotta go and try to pick up the passport,”’ he said. “We have grandparents living back home and it’s important to go back and visit with them.”

Last summer, the Trump administration ordered the San Francisco consulate closed in a diplomatic tit-for-tat, after Congress passed sanctions against Russia for election interference and the Kremlin retaliated by ordering the U.S. to cut its diplomatic staff there. A day later, black smoke poured from a chimney as consular officials burned undisclosed items in a fireplace, prompting a response from firefighters.

There were no immediate reports of smoke Monday at the consulate’s offices on the 25th floor of a downtown Seattle skyscraper or at the consular residence, a stately red-brick building surrounded by a wrought-iron fence, cedar trees and rhododendrons.
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Uber Sells Southeast Asia Business to Grab After Costly Battle

Uber Technologies has agreed to sell its Southeast Asian business to bigger regional rival Grab, the ride-hailing firms said on Monday, marking the U.S. company’s second retreat from an Asian market.

The industry’s first big consolidation in Southeast Asia, home to about 640 million people, puts pressure on Indonesia’s Go-Jek, which is backed by Alphabet’s Google and China’s Tencent Holdings Ltd.

A shake-up in Asia’s fiercely competitive ride-hailing industry became likely earlier this year when Japan-based SoftBank Group Corp’s Vision Fund made a multibillion-dollar investment in Uber. SoftBank owns stakes in most major global ride services companies, and executives have indicated they favored consolidation.

SoftBank already had investments in Grab and India’s Ola, and Vision Fund Chief Executive Rajeev Misra had urged Uber to focus less on Asia and more on profitable markets such as Latin America, a person familiar with the matter said.

Grab President Ming Maa told Reuters that SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son was “highly supportive” of the deal, which he called “a very independent decision by both” Grab and Uber.

Uber will take a 27.5 percent stake in Singapore-based Grab and Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi will join Grab’s board. Grab was last valued at $6 billion after a financing round in July.

“It will help us double down on our plans for growth as we invest heavily in our products and technology,” Khosrowshahi said in a statement.

The Competition Commission of Singapore (CCS) said it has the mandate to review whether any mergers will result in a “substantial lessening of competition” and take any action to intervene in the deal, but it has yet to receive notice from the companies.

The deal will help bolster Grab’s meal-delivery service, which will merge with Uber Eats, compete with Go-Jek. Go-Jek has become a dominant player and powerful rival in Indonesia, the region’s biggest economy, and it has rapidly expanded beyond ride hailing to digital payments, food delivery and on-demand cleaning and massage.

Ride-hailing companies throughout Asia have relied heavily on discounts and promotions, driving down profit margins and increasing pressure for consolidation.

Uber, which is preparing for a potential initial public offering in 2019, lost $4.5 billion last year and is facing fierce competition at home in the United States and across Asia, as well as a regulatory crackdown in Europe.

Uber invested $700 million in its Southeast Asia business.

Uber previously sold operations in China and Russia to local rivals under former CEO Travis Kalanick. The deal with Grab is the first operations sale by Khosrowshahi, who started in September.

More consolidation

But Uber’s CEO does not want to make these mergers a pattern, and said he has no plans to do another sale in which it consolidates its operations in exchange for a minority stake in a rival.

“It is fair to ask whether consolidation is now the strategy of the day, given this is the third deal of its kind…The answer is no,” Khosrowshahi said in a note to employees that was shared with Reuters. “One of the potential dangers of our global strategy is that we take on too many battles across too many fronts and with too many competitors.”

SoftBank is also an investor in India’s Ola, another competitive and costly market where rivals have heavily subsidized rides in an effort to gain market share. But a source familiar with Uber’s strategy said the company was going to step up its battle with Ola in India, where Uber has close to 60 percent of the market, by some estimates, but is losing money.

SoftBank’s Misra sees opportunities for mergers and joint ventures between SoftBank-backed ride-hailing companies, particularly for collaborating on research and development, but the investor would never get actively involved with management decisions, the person familiar with the matter said.

Uber includes the United States, Australia, New Zealand and Latin America among its core markets — regions where it has more than 50 percent market share and is profitable or sees a path to profitability.
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White House Probing Huge Loans to Kushner’s Family Firm

White House officials are looking into whether $500 million in loans that went to Trump administration senior adviser Jared Kushner’s family real estate company may have spurred ethics or criminal law violations, according to the head of the federal government’s ethics agency.

David J. Apol, acting director of the Office of Government Ethics, said in a letter sent late last week to Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi that the White House Counsel’s office told him that officials were probing the loans to Kushner Cos. and whether “additional procedures are necessary to avoid violations in the future.”

Krishnamoorthi, an Illinois Democrat, had asked Apol on March 1 about a New York Times report in February that Kushner Cos. accepted $184 million in loans from Apollo Global Management and $325 million from Citigroup last year over a span of several months after Kushner met with officials from the two firms. As President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and key adviser, Kushner plays an influential role in domestic and foreign policy decisions.

Both companies have insisted their officials did nothing wrong in meeting with Kushner. Both firms had financial interests overseen by the federal government at the time and both firms – either independently or through industry groups – backed elements of the tax reform legislation that passed Congress last year with support from Trump.

In one case cited by the Times, Citigroup lent $325 million to Kushner Cos. in spring 2017 shortly after Kushner met with Citi’s chief executive, Michael Corbat. Last week, Citigroup’s general counsel told several Democratic lawmakers in a letter that the loan was “completely appropriate.”

In a second case, Kushner met several times with Apollo co-founder Joshua Harris and discussed a possible White House job – followed by Apollo’s loan of $184 million to the Kushner family firm. An Apollo spokesman previously told The Associated Press that Harris “never discussed with Jared Kushner a loan, investment, or any other business arrangement or regulatory matter involving Apollo.”

In the letter to Krishnamoorthi, Apol responded to several of her questions about Kushner’s conduct during the period when his family’s real estate firm received the two loans. Apol was careful not to offer legal opinions on Kushner’s behavior, instead noting that “the White House is in a position to ascertain the relevant facts related to possible violations and is responsible for monitoring compliance with ethics requirements.”

Apol said he raised those questions with White House officials “to ensure that they have begun the process of ascertaining to determine whether any law or regulation has been violated.” During the conversations, “the White House informed me that they had already begun this process,” he said.

A spokeswoman for Kushner Cos. said Monday night that the firm had not received any correspondence or other notifications from the White House or OGE.

A spokesman for Jared Kushner at the White House was not immediately available to comment on Apol’s confirmation of the probe.
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EU-Turkey Summit: Erdogan Hopes Tough Period in the Past

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday voiced hope that a difficult period in relations between Turkey and the European Union is now in the past.

 

Erdogan spoke after talks with European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker, European Council President Donald Tusk and Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov in the Bulgarian Black Sea resort of Varna.

 

“I hope that we have left a tough period in the relations between Turkey and Europe behind us,” Erdogan said and voiced hope that “a first step was taken here toward restoring trust with Europe.”

 

He also said that EU membership was a “strategic goal.”

 

Tusk said that the summit’s purpose was to “continue the dialogue in really difficult circumstances.”

 

“Our meeting today demonstrated that while our relationship is going through difficult times, in areas where we do cooperate, we cooperate well,” he said.

 

Tusk acknowledged that no concrete compromise or solution had been achieved at the summit, but expressed hope that such would be possible in the future.

 

“Only progress on these issues will allow us to improve the EU-Turkey relations, including the accession process,” he added.

 

“We reconfirm our readiness to keep up the dialogue and conversation and work together to overcome current difficulties with a view to unleashing the potential of our partnership,” Tusk said.

 

On migration and support for refugees, Tusk said that the EU and Turkey remain very close partners.

 

“I would like to express our appreciation for the impressive work Turkey has been doing, and to sincerely thank Turkey and the Turkish people for hosting more than 3 million Syrian refugees these past years,” he said.

 

“The EU has lent substantial support to improve the livelihood of these refugees, and this evening we reaffirmed the European Union’s unwavering commitment to continue this support,” Tusk said.

 

He also said that while the EU understands Turkey’s need to deal effectively with its security, it is concerned that some of the methods used, undermine fundamental freedoms and the rule of law in Turkey.

 

“It would be a mistake for a Europe that claims to be a global power to keep Turkey outside of expansion policies,” Erdogan said.

 

Borissov said that “I think that before the end of our EU presidency (the end of June) another EU-Turkey summit will be held.”

 

In response to European criticism of its cross-border operation to drive out Syrian Kurdish militia from the northwestern Syrian border enclave of Afrin, Erdogan said Turkey expected European backing. He added that Turkey intended to continue with its operations as long as necessary.

 

“Our operations against terrorism do not just contribute to our and the Syrians’ security, but to Europe’s security as well,” Erdogan said. “On sensitive issues such as the struggle against terrorism, we don’t expect unnecessary criticism but strong support.”

 

On Cyprus, Erdogan reiterated the Turkish Cypriot community’s rights to Cyprus’ resources and said the EU had “nothing to contribute” to the dispute as long as it does not maintain a “fair” approach.

 

The summit was held amid an array of issues that have strained ties, including a dispute between Turkey and EU member Cyprus over energy exploration in the Mediterranean.

 

Turkish warships have prevented a drillship from carrying out exploratory drilling on behalf of Italian company Eni southeast of Cyprus, in a move that the EU criticized.

 

Turkey objects to “unilateral” gas searches by ethnically divided Cyprus’ Greek Cypriot-run government without the direct involvement of breakaway Turkish Cypriots. The Cyprus government says a gas search is its sovereign right and will benefit all citizens.

 

Erdogan pressed his European leaders to grant Turkish citizens visa liberalization to allow them to travel to certain European countries without visa restrictions.

 

“We told the EU side, that it needs to complete its work on this issue… This should not be turned into a political issue, it should not become an issue that shakes the trust of our people,” he said.
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Fishing Crackdown Nets Benefits for Indonesia

Indonesia’s strict crackdown on illegal foreign fishing boats is paying off, according to new research.

Kicking out interlopers has relieved pressure on the country’s overtaxed fisheries at no cost to its domestic industry, the study says, and may point the way for other countries to make their fisheries more sustainable.

About a third of the world’s commercial fish populations are overfished, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. 

One study estimated that restoring depleted fisheries would ultimately generate $53 billion in additional annual profits. 

But reducing overfishing usually means putting unpopular restrictions on local fishers to allow populations to recover.

“Telling fishers to stop fishing for a few months or years would be something that’s not that realistic,” said study lead author Ren Cabral at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Violators will be sunk

But in Indonesia, as in many developing countries, locals are only part of the equation. Many foreign vessels fished the country’s waters, often illegally.

The study notes that the country lost an estimated $4 billion per year to illegal fishing before 2014, when the government banned foreign fishing vessels in its waters.

Since then, more than 300 ships found violating the ban were evacuated and sunk.

Cabral and colleagues wanted to see what the impact had been.

Using government registries, vessel tracking data and satellite imagery, they saw a drop of more than 90 percent in the time foreign vessels spent in Indonesian waters. That meant at least a quarter less fishing activity overall.

“That’s huge,” Cabral said.

The study is published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution. 

“You have a large benefit, but the cost to local people is zero,” said marine biologist Boris Worm at Dalhousie University, who was not involved with this research.

Do this first

“This paper argues, I think convincingly, that this is the first thing you should do: if you want to fix fisheries in your country, first, kick out the fishers that don’t need to be there,” he added.

Worm notes that the study could only account for large vessels that are required to carry tracking equipment. It could not assess what smaller vessels are doing.

“You’re really only seeing the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “The tip of the iceberg is getting smaller, which is good in this case. But there are a whole lot of problems below.”

With foreign fishing boats out of the way, local fishers are filling in the gap. If not managed properly, they could undo the benefits of fighting illegal fishing, Cabral said.

If Indonesia continues to ban illegal fishing and also manages local fishing sustainably, the study estimates profits would be 12 percent higher in 2035 compared to today.

On the other hand, if local fishing remains unchanged, 2035 profits would drop by half as fish populations declined.

 

“The next step would be Indonesia managing their local fishing effort,” Cabral added. “If they do that, they can definitely get the benefit from their policies.”

 
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US Stocks Surge as Fears Ease over Trade War with China

U.S. stocks surged Monday as fears eased about the possibility of an all-out trade war with China over competing tariff increases.

The closely watched Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 key stocks jumped by more than 1.5 percentage point in New York in early-day trading and other indexes were also advancing sharply. Earlier, Asian stocks were mixed, while European indexes edged down for the day.

Global markets plummeted last week after U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese imports in an effort to trim $100 billion off the $375 billion trade deficit the U.S. recorded last year with China. Beijing immediately vowed to retaliate with higher import duties on U.S. goods.

But there were signs Monday of easing of tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC that U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are talking with Chinese officials about trade issues between the two countries. Mnuchin told Fox News he was “cautiously hopeful” that the U.S. would reach a deal to keep China from imposing tariffs on $50 billion worth of U.S. exports.

The Trump administration is asking China to lower tariffs on U.S. car exports and open its markets to U.S. financial service companies. Bloomberg News reported that Mnuchin called China’s Liu He to congratulate him on his appointment as China’s vice premier for economic policy and that the two officials discussed ways the two countries could mutually agree to close the wide trading gap between the two countries.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said China would be willing to meet with U.S. officials to work out the two countries’ trade issues, while China’s foreign ministry urged the U.S. to “stop economic intimidation” over tariffs.

While avoiding mention of the tariff dispute and last week’s sharp drop in stock prices, Trump boasted about the performance of the U.S. economy.

“The economy is looking really good,” he said in a Twitter comment. “It has been many years that we have seen these kind of numbers. The underlying strength of companies has perhaps never been better.”
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Britain, Russia Waging Fast and Furious Information War

Britain and Russia have been waging a fast and furious information war since former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter were found poisoned March 4 in the provincial English town of Salisbury. 

Not a day has gone by without at least one fierce exchange between British and Russian officials — and both governments have turned to social media, from Twitter to Facebook, to make accusations and counter-claims in their efforts to convince a global audience of guilt or innocence. 

And the barbs flying have been getting more personal. The British narrative has been more consistent, demanding an explanation from Moscow for why a Soviet-developed nerve agent, Novichok, was used to poison the Skripals and arguing the only plausible one is that the attempted assassination was sanctioned by the Russian government, a view endorsed by European Union leaders last week and by the U.S. government. 

Russian officials have offered more than 20 different explanations about who might have been behind the nerve-agent poisoning of the Skripals or why Russia is innocent of the charge of being behind the assassination attempt. Western officials charge this changing of stories is designed to muddy the waters and sow doubt.

Russian explanations have ranged from claims the British might have done it themselves to accusations that the whole incident was made up. Kremlin officials have insinuated also that Sweden, Slovakia or the Czech Republic may be to blame, earning sharp rebukes from the governments of all three European countries. The Russian finger has pointed at Uzbekistan and Ukraine, too.

“The authorities of UK are not interested in finding the truth about the Skripal case, they have other motives,” lamented the Russian Mission to the United Nations on Twitter last week. “They are using propaganda war tools to influence an uninformed and impressionable public. There are no facts, only allegations about the ‘Russian trace,’” the mission added. 

On Saturday, the Russian emphasis returned once again to implying that Britain itself was behind the assassination bid, with officials noting that Porton Down, the British military research facility, is only about 10 miles from where the Skripals were discovered. The shifting Russian narratives give Moscow some advantages in the information war, say analysts.

“Russia feels free to say whatever it wants, it doesn’t feel need to tell truth, be consistent, or stick to any norms or rules,” says a communications strategist, who has worked for the British government. “These are handicaps in a battle like this,” he adds. Britain doesn’t have the same centralized, aggressive messaging machinery the Kremlin has, he notes.

Social media battle

Moscow has also launched an extensive social media-based disinformation campaign to buttress it claims of innocence as well as to press its accusations that London is in the grip of Russophobia, say Western analysts. 

“Twitter has become a battleground,” says Ben Nimmo, an analyst with the Digital Forensic Research Lab at the Atlantic Council, a New York-based think tank. Supporters and defenders of the Russian government have clashed over who was to blame, and which side to believe; politicians and diplomats have joined in on both sides with much of the invective ‘organic” and driven by angry users and officials, he says.

But Russia’s so-called troll factories have also been at work using fake and automated social media accounts able to spread rapidly memes and messages.

Atlantic Council researchers have been plotting the activity of accounts that have been used in other Kremlin disinformation campaigns — notably during the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine. One tactic they have spotted is the large-scale amplification by Russia’s troll accounts of doubts or criticism posted by genuine British critics of the British government or conspiracy theorists in a bid to show that Britons did not believe Russian leader Vladimir Putin was behind the poisoning.

British officials estimate at least 2,800 robotic troll accounts have posted messages or re-tweets about the attempted assassination of the Skripals reaching at least 7.5 million people in Britain. Facebook also has witnessed a large volume of postings of English-language content produced by Russian state-owned media. 

Russia’s Twitter campaign “shows the power which anonymous trolls with demonstrably falsified profiles continue to wield online,” says Nimmo.

British officials have sought to expose the methodology behind what they say is Russia’s online disinformation campaign, posting on social media sites last week a video mocking the shifting narratives their Russian rivals have offered for what happened to the Skripals.

Not that Britain’s information approach is receiving unblemished praise. On Saturday, a former British envoy to Moscow, Tony Brenton, said while he supported the actions taken by the British government over the Skripal poisoning, he worried the language use, especially by Britain foreign secretary Boris Johnson, who has compared Putin to Adolf Hitler, was “unnecessarily virulent.” 

He told a British newspaper: “Obviously we have to react robustly and firmly to deal with the Skripal outrage, but at some point we are going to have to get back to doing business with Russia. We should certainly be taking action that minimizes the recurrence of [a similar] attack, but we should not be burning our bridges so much that we cannot re-establish lines of communication.”

There is also criticism of Johnson in the Russian capital from British expatriots who say his comparisons of Russia now with Nazi Germany of the 1930s and 1940s is deeply offensive, noting that the Great Patriotic War, as Russians describe the Second World War, is something people from across the spectrum here celebrate.
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US Gunmaker Remington Files for Bankruptcy

U.S. firearms and ammunition manufacturer Remington has filed for bankruptcy protection in order to reorganize its operations and put in place a debt reduction deal with its creditors.

The company filed its petition for the so-called Chapter 11 bankruptcy Sunday, six weeks after announcing an agreement to reduce its $950 million in debts while transferring ownership.

Remington’s filing listed both its debts and assets between $500 million and $1 billion.

The company is one of the largest firearms makers in the United States and has been in business for 200 years.

But its sales have been slumping, dropping from $865 million in 2016 to $602 million last year. In 2013, it reported more than $1.2 billion in total sales. 

A February document describing the restructuring plan estimated sales will rebound in the coming years, returning to more than $800 million by 2021.

A company report released in October of last year said the decline was due to a number of factors, including “reduced consumer demand and excess inventories,” as well as changes in buying behaviors and a rise in imported products.

It also discussed various government proposals to increase gun regulations, warning that if they were to become law “the cost to the company and its customers could be significant.”

That report, and Remington’s restructuring plan, came before the most recent mass shooting in the United States, a February attack at a Florida high school that left 17 people dead. 

Since that shooting, there has been an increase in calls for more gun control. Several major retailers have instituted changes in gun sales policies that range from stopping gun sales to raising the minimum age of those eligible to purchase firearms. 

Banking giant Citigroup also announced it would require new retail clients to insist on background checks for gun purchases as well as a ban on sales to people under the age of 21. The state of Florida similarly enacted a new law limiting gun purchases to those age 21 and older.

Many Americans believe current gun laws are appropriate or too strict, while a new poll indicates growing support for stricter measures.

The poll by the The Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released Friday said 69 percent of Americans support stricter gun control, up from 61 percent in October 16 and 55 percent when the poll first asked the question in October 2013.
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Turkey Proclaims Complete Control of Afrin, Announces Next Target in Syria

Turkey has declared complete control of the northern Syrian area of Afrin after a two-month-long offensive to oust a Kurdish militia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Sunday that the next target is the nearby town of Tal Rifaat. Erdogan has vowed to remove Kurds from power in all areas of Syria and Iraq where they took control after defeating Islamic State militants. As VOA’s Zlatica Hoke reports.
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Russian Shopping Mall Fire Kills 64; No Alarms Reported

With the fire alarms silent and staff reportedly nowhere to be seen, a fire at a shopping mall packed with children and their parents on the first weekend of the school recess killed 64 people in eastern Russia.

The fire at the Winter Cherry mall in Kemerovo, a city in Siberia, about 3,000 kilometers (1,900 miles) east of Moscow, was extinguished by Monday morning after burning through the night. Firefighters were still recovering bodies as parts of the buildings were still smoldering. Some of the dead were found inside a cinema.

Sixty-four deaths were confirmed after the firefighters finished combing through the four floors of the mall, Emergency Situations Minister Vladimir Puchkov told a televised briefing. Six of the bodies have not yet been recovered. Puchkov would not immediately say how many of the victims were children. 

Ten people have been hospitalized. Health Minister Veronika Skvortsova, who visited the Keremovo hospital where the victims were receiving treatment, said on Russian state television that the patient in the gravest condition is an 11-year-old boy who jumped out of a window from the fourth floor. The boy’s parents and younger brother died in the fire, Skvortsova said.

The Investigative Committee said it has detained four people for questioning, including one of the mall’s tenants, but would not immediately give the cause of the fire, which started on the top floor on Sunday evening. The investigators have launched a probe into possible negligence and violations of the fire safety rules.

Witness testimony indicated that the fire alarm did not go off and that staff did not arrange for the evacuation at the shopping mall, which was was converted from a former confectionery factory in 2013.

Winter Cherry was one of Kemerovo’s most popular entertainment centers for children, with its own indoor skating rink, petting zoo and trampolines. Kemerovo residents said the mall was packed with children and their parents.

The Ekho Mosvky radio station on Monday quoted witnesses who said the fire alarm did not go off and that the mall’s staff did not organize the evacuation.

Anna Zarechneva who was on the top floor where the fire started, watching a movie with her husband and son, said they only found out about the fire when a man ran into the theater shouting.

“We didn’t hear the fire alarm, they even didn’t turn on the light during the show,” she said. “That movie could have been the last for us, I’ve only just realized that.”

Zarechneva said her husband stayed upstairs trying to help arrange the evacuation because the mall’s security and staff were nowhere to be seen.
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China Warns Trade War Will Set off a ‘Greater Conflict’

A senior Chinese official is warning that a trade war would hurt all sides and set off a “greater conflict.”

“A trade war serves the interests of none. It will only lead to serious consequences and negative impact,” Vice Premier Han Zheng said at a development forum in Beijing Sunday. “We believe trade protectionism, against the trend, will lead to nowhere.”

Han did not mention the United States or President Donald Trump by name, whose announcement of stiff tariffs on imported Chinese steel and aluminum was answered with tariffs and duties on a list of U.S. imports.

Han appealed to all global trading partners to “cooperate with each other like passengers in the same boat … make economic globalization more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial for all.”

Fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies have sent world markets tumbling.

The United States has accused China of unfair trade practices, including intellectual property theft and dumping Chinese goods on the global marketplace to make U.S. goods appear more expensive.

China has denied the U.S. charges, and Vice Premier Liu He told U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in a telephone call Saturday that China is ready to defend its interests.
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

Ex-Catalan Leader Puigdemont Arrested in Germany

Catalonia’s ousted president Carles Puigdemont was arrested in Germany Sunday while crossing the border from Denmark, German police said.

Puigdemont’s lawyer, Jaume Alonso-Cuevillas, confirmed the arrest on Twitter, adding that Puigdemont was traveling to Belgium, where he initially fled after an arrest warrant was issued against him for his role in an independence referendum in October.

A news report (on AFP) says Puigdemont will appear before a judge in Germany on Monday as part of a process of determining if he is to be returned to Spain. Puidgmont’s detention sparked some demonstrations in Spain, according to the Associated Press.

Puigdemont “was heading to Belgium to present himself, as always, at the disposal of Belgian courts,” Alonso-Cuevillas wrote.

The arrest follows a Spanish Supreme Court decision Friday to charge 13 Catalan separatist leaders with rebellion and other crimes for their attempt to declare independence from Spain last year.

German police arrested Puigdemont in conjunction with an international arrest warrant issued by Spain. The ousted Catalan leader could face up to 25 years in Spanish prison.

Last week, the latest regional presidential candidate, Jordi Turull, was placed in custody over his role in the attempted breakaway from Spain, marking the third time Catalonia’s parliament has been unable to nominate a new president.

One of Puigdemont’s associates, former Catalonia education chief, Clara Ponsati may also face arrest after fleeing from Spain to Scotland.  News reports say her attorney has been working out arrangements for Ponsati to surrender to police.  After leaving Spain, she resumed teaching at a university in Scotland.

Catalonia has been in political limbo since December, when Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy called a special election in an effort to derail an independence movement in the region. The plan backfired when parties favoring a split with Spain won the election.

Madrid invoked special powers to take over the regional government after the Catalan administration declared independence in October.

 
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

French Bishop Pays Tribute to Police Officer Who Died in Hostage Incident

Survivors and families of victims of Friday’s terror attack in France attended a special mass to honor the four killed and three wounded, including an officer who swapped himself with a hostage in a supermarket in the southwestern town of Trebes.

The Bishop of Carcassonne and Narbonne Alain Planet celebrated mass, during which he praised the “extraordinary devotion” of Lieutenant-Colonel Arnaud Beltrame.

“I am here to share in people’s mourning, but also to warm myself to their profound solidarity. This event was also an opportunity to see an extraordinary act, extraordinary devotion by [Lieutenant] Colonel Arnaud Beltrame,” he said. “The whole of France has been touched by this, we were too, especially the Christian community, as he was one of ours. And at the start of this holy week, when we look at Christ take our place to save us from death, well his act takes on a whole new meaning and I’m sure he was aware of that when he did what he did.”

Planet said Friday’s events offered an opportunity to reflect on the suffering felt by countless people around the world.

After French President Emmanuel Macron said evidence suggested the gunman’s actions were considered terrorism, the Islamic State militant group’s propaganda arm claimed responsibility.

The Paris prosecutor’s office said counterterrorism authorities have assumed control of the investigation.

French authorities say two people have been arrested in connection with the shootings, including a woman who is reported to have been close to the assailant.

Islamic State extremist attacks have killed more than 200 people since 2015.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Friday’s attack in France in a message on Twitter Saturday.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims of the horrible attack in France yesterday, and we grieve the nation’s loss,” the president wrote, adding “We also condemn the violent actions of the attacker and anyone who would provide him support. We are with you @EmmanuelMacron!”

 

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ЄС, Новини, Світ

Pope Urges Youth to Speak Out

Pope Francis marked Palm Sunday in Saint Peter’s Square urging young people not to let themselves be manipulated. A large crowd turned out at the Vatican to listen to the pope’s words and receive his blessing on the first of Holy Week services leading up to Easter.

Pope Francis and cardinals dressed in red robes marked Palm Sunday with a long and solemn ceremony in Saint Peter’s Square attended by a large crowd, which included many young people who turned out to celebrate the Catholic Church’s World Day of Youth.

Carrying a woven palm branch, Pope Francis first led a procession in front of Saint Peter’s Basilica to commemorate the day Jesus Christ rode into Jerusalem and was hailed as a savior, before his crucifixion five days later.

Palm fronds and olive branches surrounded the altar. In his homily, Pope Francis told young people that the temptation to silence them has always existed.

The pope said: “There are many ways to silence young people and make them invisible. Many ways to anesthetize them, to make them keep quiet, ask nothing, question nothing. There are many ways to sedate them, to keep them from getting involved, to make their dreams flat and dreary, petty and plaintive.”

Pope Francis urged young people to keep shouting and not allow the older generations to silence their voices. He urged youth to be like the people who welcomed Jesus with palms rather than those who shouted for his crucifixion only days later.

Palm Sunday is the start of one of the busiest weeks for the pope in the Christian calendar. On Holy Thursday he is due to preside at two services, including one in which he will wash the feet of 12 inmates at a Rome prison to commemorate Jesus Christ’s gesture of humility towards his apostles the night before he died.

       

On Good Friday, he is due to lead a solemn Way of the Cross procession at Rome’s ancient Colosseum. Then, on Saturday night he is scheduled to lead an Easter vigil service before delivering his twice-yearly “Urbi et Orbi” message and blessing on Easter Sunday.

 
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Бізнес, Новини, Фінанси

Pride, Loneliness in the Deep North: Russians Who Refuse to Abandon Arctic City

In Russia’s far north, the city of Vorkuta is slowly being reclaimed by the Arctic tundra. Its population has plummeted as the local coal mines have closed, and the very future of the city is in doubt. As Henry Ridgwell reports for VOA, Vorkuta’s fate reflects a wider population crisis across Russia’s far north as old Soviet industries have crumbled.
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Бізнес, Новини, Фінанси

Swelling Tourism Numbers Come at a Cost in Indonesia

Tourist numbers in Indonesia swelled last year on the back of overseas advertising and infrastructure development. President Joko Widodo has said he wants to “create 10 tourist destinations like the island of Bali.” But the pleasing economic numbers also come with a social and environmental cost as rampant development threatens ecosystems and traditional livelihoods. Jack Hewson has this report.
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Бізнес, Новини, Фінанси

Some Fear Steel Tariff Could Hurt Auto Industry in the South

German business leaders are expressing concerns that President Donald Trump’s 25 percent tariff on imported steel could affect the auto industry in the South.

 

WABE Radio reports Mercedes-Benz USA this month opened its new North American headquarters in Sandy Springs, Georgia, for 1,000 employees.

The luxury car manufacturer is owned by Germany-based Daimler, but Mercedes-Benz USA CEO Dietmar Exler used the grand opening to remind the crowd of the brand’s U.S. presence.

German automakers in US 

That includes operations in South Carolina and in Alabama.

 

“We are now in the midst of construction of our own factory here, which will open doors in the fall in Charleston, South Carolina, and we’ll make all of the Sprinter vans for North America right here,” Exler said at the grand opening of its headquarters in Sandy Springs, Georgia, just north of Atlanta.

 

“Right next to me you have a member of the most successful SUV family, a GLE Coupe,” Exler said. “As you know, the GLE and the GLS are produced in Alabama. Last year, 280,000 cars were produced here not just for the U.S. market, but for markets all over the world.”

 

German car factories in the U.S. made more than 800,000 vehicles last year, and about half were sold overseas, according to the German Association of the Automotive Industry.

 

This month, Volkswagen of America Inc. announced plans to build a new five-passenger SUV at its factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee, where it manufactures other vehicles. Volkswagen AG is based in Wolfsburg, Germany.

 

“During my time as governor, I’ve watched Volkswagen Chattanooga flourish from a single vehicle producer, starting with the Passat, into what it is today — a thriving U.S. manufacturing operation that can produce three models, and counting,” said Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam said in a statement Monday, when plans were announced.

 

“We value Volkswagen as a committed partner, whose investments in the state have not only created new jobs, but have helped us build a skilled Tennessee workforce,” Haslam said.

Volkswagen Chattanooga also manufactures the Passat and the Atlas.

​Trump proclamation, industry concern

Trump signed a proclamation last week to impose a 25 percent tariff on steel from every country except Canada and Mexico. The hope is to boost steel manufacturing in the U.S.

The concern among some industry experts is that tariffs on steel could hurt companies like Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Porsche, all of which have significant operations in the South, said Stefan Mair of the Federation of German Industries in Berlin.

 

“Do you see the cars outside? There’s a lot of steel in there,” Mair said at the grand opening of the Georgia headquarters complex. “We think there will be some additional percentage points on the prices of cars.”

 

That price increase could be enough to stop people from buying new cars, said Lisa Cook, who teaches economics and international relations at Michigan State University.

 

“If consumers are price sensitive, and they are for many types of cars, this could cause people to postpone their decision to purchase a car,” Cook said.

US steel in cars

 

A little more than a quarter of all U.S. steel is used to make cars in this country, according to the German American Chamber of Commerce for the southern U.S.

 

“Approximately 25 percent of all steel is used in automotive manufacturing and 10 percent in machinery and equipment; both industries that German companies have heavily invested in the U.S. over the years,” said Stefanie Ziska, president of GACC South.

 

Making cars more expensive to build and export could hurt U.S. jobs, said Jeffrey Rosensweig, who teaches international business at Georgia’s Emory University.

 

“That would not only cost us jobs, it would hurt the U.S. and could potentially harm the U.S. trade balance,” Rosensweig said. “Just the opposite of what President Trump thinks he’s trying to achieve.”

 

He said the steel tariffs could trigger a trade war that would go beyond the auto industry.

 

“These foreign nations that we’re going to put these import taxes on, these tariffs, are not stupid,” Rosensweig said. “They’re going to retaliate against our exports, and they’re going to hit us where it hurts, which is often our farm exports.”
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

New Protest Held Against Volokolamsk Landfill Near Moscow

About 1,000 people have protested again in Volokolamsk, some 100 kilometers west of Moscow, demanding the closure of a landfill that has been leaking toxic gas that harmed dozens of children this week.

The protesters gathered outside the local administration headquarters, many of them wearing pink ribbons as homage to a local schoolgirl who shamed Moscow region Governor Andrei Vorobyov with a defiant gesture during a previous protest.

Saturday’s protest came despite the fact that Vorobyov the previous day fired the district chief, after dozens of local children were hospitalized Wednesday due to apparently breathing gas that leaked from the Yadrovo landfill near Volokolamsk.

Vorobyov’s office said that he replaced Yevgeny Gavrilov with another regional official.

Some 150 schoolchildren sought medical assistance Wednesday after they felt extremely sick following a suspected leak of noxious gas from Yadrovo.

The same day, angry residents scuffled with government officials in Volokolamsk, demanding explanations and the closure of the dump. Vorobyov was pelted with snowballs and confronted by irate residents.

During the protest, 10-year-old Tanya Lozova, a local girl who was wearing a pink ski cap and bright jacket, was caught on cameras pointing her finger in a throat-cutting gesture at Vorobyov, who was promising furious residents that he would quickly deal with the problem.

Lozova, who instantly became an internet hero in Russia, told Dozhd TV that her gesture was meant to say “You are killing us!” She said she wanted the landfill to close so “people finally could breathe fresh air.”

On March 7, Volokolamsk authorities declared a temporary state of emergency, saying the level of hydrogen sulphide in the air was recorded as 2.5 times higher and the level of nitric oxide was double usual levels because of a gas leak at the landfill.

The Yadrovo landfill was opened in 2008 and is a dumping site for garbage from Moscow and nearby regions. Local residents have been staging protests, demanding the closure of the landfill for some time.

The Moscow regional authorities said earlier Friday that the landfill will suspend its operations until April 14, after which the old section of the dump will be closed.

In the past, local authorities had promised to “modernize” the landfill but refused to consider closing it.
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

UK Watchdog Evaluates Evidence From Cambridge Analytica

Britain’s information regulator said Saturday that it was assessing evidence gathered from a raid on the office of data mining firm Cambridge Analytica, part of an investigation into alleged misuse of personal information by political campaigns and social media companies like Facebook.

More than a dozen investigators from the Information Commissioner’s Office entered the company’s central London office late Friday, shortly after a High Court judge granted a warrant. The investigators were seen leaving the premises early Saturday after spending about seven hours searching the office.

The regulator said it would “consider the evidence before deciding the next steps and coming to any conclusions.”

“This is one part of a larger investigation by the ICO into the use of personal data and analytics by political campaigns, parties, social media companies and other commercial actors,” it said.

Authorities in Britain as well as the U.S. are investigating Cambridge Analytica over allegations the firm improperly obtained data from 50 million Facebook users and used it to manipulate elections, including the 2016 White House race and the 2016 Brexit vote in Britain.

Both Cambridge Analytica and Facebook deny wrongdoing. 

​Chief executive suspended

The data firm suspended its CEO, Alexander Nix, this week after Britain’s Channel 4 News broadcast footage that appeared to show Nix suggesting tactics like entrapment or bribery that his company could use to discredit politicians. The footage also showed Nix saying Cambridge Analytica played a major role in securing Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Cambridge Analytica’s acting chief executive, Alexander Tayler, said Friday that he was sorry that SCL Elections, an affiliate of his company, “licensed Facebook data and derivatives from a research company [Global Science Research] that had not received consent from most respondents” in 2014.

“The company believed that the data had been obtained in line with Facebook’s terms of service and data protection laws,” Tayler said.

His statement said the data were deleted in 2015 at Facebook’s request, and he denied that any of the Facebook data that Cambridge Analytica obtained were used in the work it did on the 2016 U.S. election.
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ЄС, Новини, Світ

Turkey’s President Refers to Anti-War Students as Terrorists

Turkey’s president on Saturday criticized anti-war students at a top university, calling them terrorists following a fight there.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said “communist traitor youth” tried to mess up a student stand opened by “religious nationalist local youth” at the public Bogazici University. Erdogan announced an investigation and said “we won’t give these terrorist youth the right to study at these universities.”

On Monday, a group of students opened a stand distributing sweets dubbed “Afrin delight” to commemorate fallen soldiers in Turkey’s cross-border operation in Syria. Another group protested against them, holding anti-war banners.

Turkey’s official Anadolu Agency said a fight broke out and 12 people were later detained.

Turkey hasn’t tolerated criticism of its military offensive to oust a Syrian Kurdish militia that it considers a terror group.
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