ІНСАЙДЕР УКРАЇНА

Angela Merkel has survived as German chancellor but the coalition deal she clinched on Friday puts her fate in the hands of her Social Democrat (SPD) partners and risks eroding support from her close allies before the end

of her fourth term.

Europe’s pre-eminent leader for more than 12 years, Merkel’s star is waning as she pays for her 2015 decision to leave German borders open to over a million refugees, a move that cost her Christian Democrats votes and fueled the rise of the far-right.

After the collapse of talks in November to form a three-way coalition with the liberal Free Democrats and Greens, Merkel and her conservative Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) allies were forced to turn again to the left-leaning SPD.

Merkel’s immediate destiny now lies in the hands of rank-and-file Social Democrats whose party leaders will ask them on Jan. 21 to back Friday’s deal, a repeat of the grand coalition that governed from 2013 to 2017.

The chancellor, who still commands wide respect abroad, needed the talks to succeed to avoid further erosion of her authority, after losing ground in September elections, and the weakening of German influence, not least in the European Union.

An Infratest Dimap poll for broadcaster ARD published last week showed Merkel’s personal approval had dropped 2 percentage points from a month earlier to 52 percent.

To win over the SPD, Merkel agreed to 5.95 billion euros ($7.2 billion) of investment in education, research and digitalization by 2021, expanded child care rights, and a pledge to strengthen Europe’s cohesion with increased German contributions to the EU budget.

The investment is a small proportion of the extra 45 billion euros the government will have at its disposal for the next four years and for many in the SPD, the deal did not go far enough on cherished social justice issues.

The leader of the SPD’s more radical Berlin branch, Michael Mueller, said commitments on affordable housing were inadequate. “Living cannot be allowed to be a luxury,” he said.

Friday’s 28-page coalition blueprint also failed to convince Marcel Fratzscher, head of the DIW economic research institute and an advocate of stronger investment in Germany, who said “a clear vision and courageous reforms are lacking.”

European legacy

Even if SPD delegates do back the coalition agreement, negotiations on forming a government could still fail.

Describing the deal clinched after a 25-hour meeting as a “give and take” agreement, Merkel said much hard work remained before a full coalition could be formed.

“The coalition negotiations probably won’t be easier than the exploratory talks,” she told a joint news conference with CSU leader Horst Seehofer and SPD leader Martin Schulz.

Mujtaba Rahman of political consultancy Eurasia assigned a 35 percent probability to coalition negotiations failing and leading to an early election or a minority government.

“There are still multiple risks to an overall agreement,” he said. “There is still a risk, even in a scenario where Merkel is able to form a government, that she will not be able to fulfill her complete term.”

Conservatives, though, were pleased Friday’s coalition blueprint omitted a call from the SPD’s Schulz for a “United States of Europe” by 2025.

“It is welcome that the goal of a United States of Europe, which sounds great and which perhaps sometime in the future can be a long-term objective, is not included in this coalition agreement,” said Detlef Seif, the deputy EU spokesman for Merkel’s conservative parliamentary bloc.

A commitment to “sustainably strengthen and reform the euro zone” in close partnership with France does give Merkel scope to secure her legacy as a guardian of the European project.

However, beyond boosting Germany’s EU budget contribution and transforming the European Stability Mechanism that can bailout member states into a European Monetary Fund, the blueprint is short of specifics on Europe.

Fiscally conservative members of Merkel’s Christian Democrats are wary of France pushing Berlin into European reforms at increased cost to the German taxpayer.

Beyond Merkel

Carsten Nickel, deputy research director at advisory firm Teneo Intelligence, said of Merkel’s centrist strategy: “The real challenge has always been to sell this logic internally.”

That Merkel has been able to survive as chancellor is partly due to the absence of a natural successor.

Though a challenger has yet to come forward, impatience is growing in Christian Democrat ranks about Merkel’s tendency to manage crises as they arise rather than presenting a vision the party can rally behind and sell to voters.

Her message during campaigning for September’s election was simply “don’t experiment” with a shift to the political left — a narrative that failed to resonate with voters, who handed her conservatives their worst result since 1949.

“The conversation has now moved on,” said Eurasia’s Rahman. “There is a lot of active consideration being given to the post-Merkel era.”
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The Czechs are electing a new president, and eight candidates are hoping to unseat the current controversy-courting leader.

President Milos Zeman, 73, is seeking another five-year term in the largely ceremonial post and is the favorite to win the election’s first-round vote on Friday and Saturday.

Two political newcomers, the former president of the Academy of Sciences, Jiri Drahos, and popular song writer Michal Horacek are considered his major challengers. Others with a chance to advance to the runoff are Mirek Topolanek, an outspoken leader who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2009, and Pavel Fischer, a former diplomat.

If no candidate achieves a majority, the top two will face each other in a runoff in two weeks.

Friday’s vote was hit by a protest by Femen activists. After Zeman entered a polling station in Prague, he was approached by a female activist naked to the waist who shouted “Zeman, Putin’s slut!” His guards intervened and led the shaken president away. Zeman returned several minutes later to vote and said he was honored to be attacked by a Femen activist.

Zeman was elected to the largely ceremonial post in 2013 during the country’s first direct presidential vote, a victory that returned the former left-leaning prime minister to power.

In office, he’s become known for strong anti-migrant rhetoric that won him support from the populist far-right. He has divided the nation with his pro-Russian stance and his support for closer ties with China.

He was one of the few European leaders to endorse Donald Trump’s bid for the White House. He flew the European Union flag at Prague Castle but later used every opportunity to attack the 28-nation bloc.
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WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who has been living in asylum inside Ecuador’s embassy in London for five years, was granted Ecuadorian citizenship, the country’s foreign minister said Thursday.

The move was seen as an unsuccessful attempt to allow Assange to leave the embassy without facing arrest by British police. London denied Ecuador’s request to grant Assange diplomatic status, which would give him safe passage out of the embassy.

“Ecuador is currently exploring other solutions in dialogue with the UK,” Ecuador’s foreign minister, Maria Fernanda Espinosa, told reporters Thursday.

“There are well-founded fears we have about possible risks to his life and integrity, not necessarily by the UK but by third party states,” she added.

Assange has been living at the Ecuadorean Embassy in London since 2012 under virtual house arrest to avoid being detained in connection with a Swedish rape investigation, which began seven years ago.

Though Sweden dropped the case against him, the Australian-born former journalist and computer programmer remained at the Ecuadorean embassy. British police have said they will arrest him on a charge of jumping bail if he tries to leave.

Assange also faces a possible sealed U.S. indictment against him. The U.S. Justice Department has been investigating Assange since at least 2010, when WikiLeaks published thousands of stolen U.S. security files.

 
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Turn up at a polling station in Russia in March and get the chance to win an iPhone or iPad. That’s one of the plans the Kremlin is considering in a bid to secure a high turnout in the presidential elections being held then, according to a leaked document reported by a Russian media outlet.

Vladimir Putin’s re-election as president is assured. Yet while he remains highly popular, according to opinion polls, the overall success of the presidential election isn’t, and opposition activists say the Kremlin is worried as it tries to balance between keeping tight control over campaigning and avoiding voter apathy.

The Kremlin, they say, is determined to ensure a big turnout to demonstrate that Putin remains Russia’s “irreplaceable leader,” 18 years after first coming to power, and that his grip on the nation hasn’t weakened.

The country’s only truly independent opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, an anti-corruption campaigner, has been excluded from standing; his disqualification was upheld Saturday by Russia’s Supreme Court.

Still, he remains a thorn in the side of the Kremlin as he seeks to portray the election as manipulated, using online videos to mock corruption in Putin’s circle and staging street rallies to provoke a Kremlin response.

Navalny, who rose to prominence galvanizing street protests in Moscow against alleged voter fraud in the 2011 legislative elections, says other candidates are handpicked or useful as props. Kremlin officials deny the accusation. In a recent television interview, Putin wouldn’t even mention Navalny by name, but the Russian leader gruffly said he wouldn’t allow Navalny to “destabilize our country.”

A leaked Kremlin document outlining ways to get voters to the polls suggest there are indeed worries among Putin’s officials about apathy and boycotts. According to the leaked document, reported by RBC Media, the Kremlin is planning to offer iPhones and iPads for the best voting station “selfies” as part of a bid to create a “carnival-like polling day” and draw more people to vote.

Under the plan, celebrities and famous sports figures could be enlisted to promote the “Photo at the Polls” contest. Other attractions under consideration include staging family games and offering non-binding referendums on topics appealing to families, according to RBC.

“The aim is to run an election that looks enough like a real one to arouse some interest – as the regime needs a strong turnout to claim legitimacy – but not so real as to include genuinely subversive and critical voices,” analyst Mark Galeotti, a researcher at the Institute for International Relations, a Prague-based research institution, wrote recently.

Navalny has called for a nationwide strike for January 28 to launch a boycott of the vote. “The aim of our strike is to cause maximum political damage to Putin,” he told supporters in a recent online broadcast.

The 41-year-old was barred last month from standing in the March poll by the country’s election commission on the grounds that he has a 2013 embezzlement conviction that Navalny says was politically motivated and engineered to keep him out of the election.

The European Court of Human Rights has ruled the proceedings against the opposition leader were “arbitrary and unfair.” Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said the case was “proof that we do not have independent courts.” Since announcing his intention to run, Navalny has been doused twice with antiseptic liquid by assailants — one attack left the vision in his right eye impaired temporarily.

An opinion survey released in December by the Moscow-based Levada Center, a polling company, suggested that Putin will likely fall short of securing the Kremlin-earmarked goal of 70 percent of the vote — and that turnout will fall below that number as well. The 65-year-old Putin kicked off his election campaign officially last week, visiting a factory in Tver, a city 170 kilometers northwest of the Russian capital, Moscow.

Last month, the Kremlin warned the United States not to meddle in the upcoming Russian elections when Washington criticized the barring of Navalny from the race.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the U.S. of “direct interference in the electoral process” after the State Department urged “the government of Russia to hold genuine elections that are transparent, fair, and free.” On Thursday, the Reuters news agency cited President Putin as saying Navalny was the U.S. pick for Russia’s presidency, which was why Washington complained about Navalny being barred from seeking office.

Putin’s electoral rivals include Communist Party politician Pavel Grudinin and television host Ksenia Sobchak, once a Playboy cover girl. The 36-year-old Sobchak denies accusations by Navalny that she’s a stooge and is coordinating her campaign with the Kremlin.

But Vitali Shkliarov, one of her advisers, indicated this week that her campaign may well fit into the Kremlin’s electoral management plans.

Writing for CNN, he said: “The Kremlin may be afraid of lower voter turnout – an indication of voter apathy and a decreasing legitimacy in the government. By allowing the semblance of increased competition, the Kremlin may be hoping to engage more voters – and get higher voter turnout on Election Day.”

 
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Russia’s government is threatening additional penalties against U.S. media operating in Russia. The threat is the latest in a back and forth dispute between Washington and Moscow over the treatment of media outlets operating in each other’s countries. 

Ever since U.S. intelligence agencies issued a report last January, claiming a Russian media role in alleged Kremlin meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the media have been garnering unwelcome headlines.

First, the U.S. demanded the Russian state-affiliated RT news service register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, or FARA, an 80-year-old law first introduced to counter Nazi propaganda during World War II.  

In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law designating foreign media as “foreign agents.”  

Voice of America, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, and several affiliated projects with U.S. government backing were soon added to the list.

Then this week, Russia’s state-affiliated media outlet Sputnik announced that the United States was forcing its parent company, RIA Global, to register under FARA by early February.   

In a statement issued online, Russia’s embassy in Washington called the move “unacceptable” and alleged that Russian journalists face problems with visas as well as harassment from U.S. security services.

While the U.S. has denied those accusations, Russia also warned that unavoidable “mirror measures” would be forthcoming, without elaborating.

Yet the media issue wasn’t the only irritant surrounding Russia’s debated role in the U.S. elections.  

On Thursday, the Kremlin denounced a U.S. congressional report issued by Senate Democrats that accused Russia of mounting a protracted and asymmetrical assault on democracy in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the report part of an ongoing “baseless” and “groundless” campaign against Russia.  

RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan also weighed in, deriding the report as “boring.”

“Wake me up in five years when they find nothing and don’t want to admit there was no Russian interference,” she said.

Yet the issue is unlikely to disappear soon.

While the U.S. Congress has multiple ongoing investigations into Russian election meddling, Russian lawmakers have been conducting their own.

Of key interest to the Duma is how U.S. media might seek to influence Russia’s presidential elections, slated for March 2018.

 
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Ax-wielding robbers stole jewelry on Wednesday possibly worth more than $5 million from a store in the famed Ritz Paris hotel, police said.

Five thieves carried out the heist at the luxury hotel in late afternoon. Three were arrested while two others got away. There were no injuries.

“The loss is very high and remains to be assessed,” one police source said. Another put the figure at 4.5 million euros ($5.38 million), but said that a bag had been recovered possibly containing some of the loot.

The hotel first opened in 1898 and was the first Paris hotel to boast electricity on all floors and bathrooms that were inside rooms.

The former home of fashion designer Coco Chanel and author Marcel Proust, the Ritz was a favourite drinking hole of American writer Ernest Hemingway.

It was at the Ritz that Diana, Princess of Wales, spent her last night in 1997 before the car crash that killed her and her lover Dodi Fayed, son of the hotel’s owner Mohammed al-Fayed.

Armed heists targeting jewellery stores are not uncommon in the ultra chic avenues near Place Vendome square in central Paris where the Ritz is located.
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Kosovo President Hashim Thaci is insisting that he will sign legislation to abolish a special court set up to try former Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) members for war and postwar crimes if parliament passes such a measure.

“The law on [the] special court is in place, but if the parliament votes otherwise, it will be my legal and constitutional duty to sign such legislation,” he said in a Wednesday interview with VOA’s Albanian Service.

It is unclear why Thaci, a former leader of the KLA, changed his position on the Hague-based special court, which was set up under Kosovo’s jurisdiction. The law, which required constitutional changes, was passed in 2015 amid pressure from the international community. As foreign minister at that time, Thaci supported the legislation and played a key role in having it passed.

Asked whether he was concerned he might be among those charged with war crimes, Thaci said he was “not afraid of justice.”

Equal treatment demanded

Echoing the opinions of those who see the establishment of the special court as unfair, the president warned that “Kosovo should not be discriminated [against] by the international community.”

“It must be treated the same way as other former Yugoslav states,” he said.

The motion to suspend the law was presented unexpectedly — late on December 22, just before the long Christmas holiday — by a group of 43 parliamentarians.

Alarmed at the surprise development, the U.S. ambassador, along with fellow Western ambassadors, immediately arrived at parliament in an effort to push back, urging Kosovo leaders to abandon the suspension by warning of serious consequences.

“The United States is deeply concerned by recent attempts of Kosovo lawmakers to abrogate the law on the Specialist Chambers,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a December 29 statement, referring to the special court by its official name. “We call on political leaders in the Republic of Kosovo to maintain their commitment to the work of the Chambers and to leave the authorities and jurisdiction of the court unchanged.”

A few days later, another statement by Quint NATO countries — an informal decision-making group consisting of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States — was even harsher.

‘Severe negative consequences’

“Anyone who supports [suspending the special court] will be rejecting Kosovo’s partnership with our countries,” it said, adding that if Kosovo continued on this path, it would have “severe negative consequences, including for Kosovo’s international and Euro-Atlantic integration.”

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on December 21 that “the pursuit of justice in the Balkans is not over” and that the U.S. “remains committed to supporting justice for the victims.”

The head of the EU’s office in Kosovo called the attempt “appalling” and “extremely damaging for Kosovo.”

The special court would hear cases of alleged crimes against humanity, war crimes and other serious crimes committed during and after the 1998-99 conflict in Kosovo.

Kosovo’s parliament is in recess until next week, and it is unclear whether the motion will be put up for a vote.

This story originated in VOA’s Albanian Service.
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It was July 20, 1998, and “Drita” was traveling with her younger sister to visit family in a rural part of Serbia-controlled Kosovo.

“They stopped the bus, made us come out and asked for ID,” Drita, who did not want to be identified by her real name, told VOA’s Albanian Service. “They asked my sister to get out first, and I immediately went after her because I have always been close to her and she is two years younger.”

Like most ethnic Albanian women caught up in Kosovo’s two-year fight for secession, neither Drita nor her sister possessed official documentation, so the soldiers began herding them, along with three other female passengers, toward an abandoned house without doors or windows.

Watching as the frightened women were dragged away, Drita’s husband jumped from the bus, demanding to know where they were being taken. Insistently grabbing a soldier by the arm, he was shoved to the ground and battered with an iron rod.

Once inside, Drita could still hear his screams.

“And right in front of me, I could hear and see my sister,” she said, choking back tears as she struggled to describe the scene. “I was torn whether to run to my husband or my sister, [who] was there in front of me.”

With troops restraining her arms and grabbing at her knees, Drita thrashed about in panic as two others raped and beat her sister unconscious. Drita bit a chunk of flesh from a soldier’s hand, only to be struck by a scrap of discarded lumber, a protruding nail plunging into her arm.

“I still have the mark,” she said. “I tried to stop them, but I was beaten so hard because I tried to fight them like a man, and outside, I was hearing my husband scream.”

​Silent decades

International humanitarian organizations and local NGOs have collected an estimated 20,000 accounts of systematic rape and torture perpetrated by Serbian forces loyal to former President Slobodan Milosevic, whose bid to repress Kosovo’s fight for independence in the late 1990s left at least 11,000 Kosovars dead and 700,000 displaced.

Many survivors kept quiet for decades, fearing the shame that a rape can bring upon an extended family in a historically patriarchal society. Now, they are starting to find their voices, following a decision by the government to provide reparations for victims of sexual war crimes under a law that compensates veterans of the Kosovo War.

They welcome the lifetime monthly compensation of $275 for the physical and psychological trauma — about 90 percent of the average salary for Kosovar women. But many say justice remains elusive.

Two kinds of suppression

As Kosovo struggled to rebuild and secure international recognition in the wake of its 2008 declaration of independence, the issue of sexual violence remained largely on the back burner.

The reason, said Vlora Çitaku, Pristina’s ambassador to the United States, is because in Kosovo, as in many societies, “it is often the victim that gets blamed, not the perpetrator.”

Çitaku, herself a former refugee, said her family has long honored a late uncle lost in the battle for independence.

“Unfortunately for children of the survivors of sexual violence, the experience is completely the opposite,” she told VOA. “They don’t live with pride like I do. They have fear, they feel shame, and they are worried that they will be excluded, that their families will be excluded, that their mother will suffer if her story comes out.”

Drita, for example, said no one in her extended family knows what happened to her.

“These victims,” Çitaku said, “have carried on their shoulders not only the pain but also the shame” of an entire war-racked generation.

The emotional weight was so leaden that many Kosovar rape victims committed suicide or fell prey to family “honor killings,” leading some analysts to suspect that the roughly 20,000 documented accounts of rape by Serb forces in Kosovo are just a small fraction of the actual number.

No role in negotiations

Aside from Kosovo’s regional cultural norms, Shirley DioGuardi, who wrote about Kosovo in Women and Genocide, identifies another reason for the suppression of rape accounts: the international community’s exclusion of female victims from postwar discussions.

“We have so many qualified Kosovar women, and they were not allowed by the international community to be part of the negotiations,” she told VOA, referring to the fact that peace talks were led exclusively by men.

Some experts say this twofold suppression of accounts of conflict-driven sexual atrocities — on both domestic and international fronts — means that stories such as Drita’s are not only under-reported but also underprosecuted.

Despite numerous high-profile war crimes prosecutions by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), a recent report by London-based Amnesty International said only a handful of perpetrators had been convicted of sexually motivated war crimes — and those exclusively by regional Serbian courts.

Because neither ICTY nor the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo has brought any perpetrator to justice, accounts such as Drita’s may be the only remaining historical evidence.

“Now, 18 years later, very little evidence survives, and the main evidence actually is what the survivors have to say,” said Sian Jones, an Amnesty International Kosovo expert.

That’s why, she added, “we are calling for reforms within the judicial system that will protect witnesses if they will come forward, which will give them support if they decide to go through the process of a court case at this stage.”

Amnesty International lauds the monthly stipend as “a just and dignified amount,” noting that the reparations law recognizes rape survivors as victims of the conflict, providing them benefits similar to those of war veterans. But critics say the law still falls short of international standards by excluding the predominantly Kosovo-Serb, Roma and Albanian women who were raped after hostilities formally concluded.

Rape as genocidal act

It wasn’t until 1994 — 46 years after the United Nations unanimously passed the Genocide Convention — that rape was officially categorized as an act of genocide, a step vital to including Kosovar women in the war victims category.

“I think it has to do with the fact that the act of rape is a mechanism of war against the female population of the world, and we can no longer accept that, just as we wouldn’t accept any other form of murder and torture that men were involved particularly,” said DioGuardi, who has written extensively about rape as a tool of warfare.

No amount of financial compensation or redefinition of war crimes can restore what Drita lost — specifically because the burden of trauma is passed on to future generations.

“I feel bad for my son, because I was never able as a parent to give him that joy, that cheerful smile that a child needs,” Drita said.

Although she survived the assault, she lost an unborn child, and three years later her husband died of complications from the beating.

“I have waited so long to be able to tell someone, to tell that we also fought — maybe not with weapons, but I confronted an over 6-foot-tall man,” Drita said. “I was raped and beaten, and I don’t even know how have I been able to make it to this day, but I am very strong and I don’t know how.”

The compensation means she will no longer need to beg, even if she’ll quietly continue to pray for the kind of emotional and psychological support from the broader community that would enable her to maintain the semblance of a normal life.

“Even if we receive millions, what happened to us will remain with us for the whole life,” she said. “It is etched in our souls because it is something that cannot be erased from our brain.”

As Kosovo advances into the future, having largely secured a stable postwar foundation, there still “cannot be peace,” said Çitaku, “if there is denial.”

This story originated in VOA’s Albanian Service.
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A U.S. congressional report issued Wednesday accused Russia of mounting a protracted assault on democracy at home and abroad, and urged a multi-pronged counter-strategy that begins with U.S. presidential leadership, something the report alleged has been lacking from Donald Trump.

Prepared by Democratic staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and provided in advance to VOA, the report said, “[Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s regime has developed a formidable set of tools to exert influence abroad” and “appears intent on using almost any means possible to undermine democratic institutions and trans-Atlantic alliances.”

Based on months of research and informational exchanges with foreign governments targeted by the Kremlin, the 206-page report exhaustively documented the full array of tools Russia has wielded beyond its borders.

Putin’s “asymmetric arsenal” ranges from “a lethal blend of conventional military assaults, assassinations, disinformation campaigns, [and] cyberattacks” in Ukraine to plotting a coup in Montenegro to disinformation and cyberattacks in Germany, France, the United Kingdom and beyond, according to the report.

The document also details years of alleged oppression and violence within Russia against Putin’s perceived adversaries and critics. The Russian leader, the report said, “gained and solidified power by exploiting blackmail, fears of terrorism, and war” and “combined military adventurism and aggression abroad with propaganda and political repression at home, to persuade a domestic audience that he is restoring Russia to greatness.”

“This is not a report on the hacking of the 2016 [U.S.] election. It’s a report about how Russia operates around the world,” said a committee staff members who helped prepare the document, adding that the report is the first from a U.S. governmental entity that spells out “the scale and scope” of the Russian threat.

Without fully understanding that threat, the staffer said, “you can’t prevent it from happening again.”

The report detailed steps European nations have taken to combat Russian influence, both individually and within organizations such as NATO and the European Union. The United States, it contended, lags far behind.

“President Trump has been negligent in acknowledging and responding to the threat to U.S. national security posed by Putin’s meddling,” the report said. “The president should immediately declare that it is U.S. policy to counter and deter all forms of the Kremlin’s hybrid threats against the United States and around the world. … The president should also present to Congress a comprehensive national strategy to counter these grave national security threats.”

Establishing a fusion cell

The report recommended establishing an inter-agency task force or “fusion cell” for combating Russian influence modeled on the National Counterterrorism Center. It also recommended designating countries that employ malign influence operations as “State Hybrid Threat Actors,” and subjecting them to “a pre-emptive and escalatory sanctions regime.”

Minority reports are common on Capitol Hill. Like all such reports, this one was prepared for the full Foreign Relations Committee, which is Republican-led.

“We think a lot of [the report’s] recommendations and findings would be supported on a bipartisan basis,” a committee staff member said.

Putin has consistently ridiculed any suggestion of foreign meddling, and last year Trump appeared to back him up, at least in regard to the 2016 U.S. election.

“He [Putin] said he didn’t meddle. I asked him again. You can only ask so many times,” Trump told reporters after a November meeting with the Russian leader in Vietnam. “Every time he sees me, he says, ‘I didn’t do that.’ And I believe, I really believe, that when he tells me that, he means it.”

Prominent Republicans have joined Democrats in slamming Trump’s remarks.

“There’s nothing ‘America First’ about taking the word of a KGB colonel over that of the American intelligence community,” Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona said in a statement. “Vladimir Putin does not have America’s interests at heart. To believe otherwise is not only naïve but also places our national security at risk.”

In an interview last year on Australian Broadcasting Corp, McCain said, “I think he [Putin] is the premier and most important threat, more so than ISIS.”

Bipartisan probes

Multiple U.S. congressional committees are conducting bipartisan probes of Russian meddling in the 2016 election, with final reports possible later this year. In the interim, lawmakers of both political parties have spoken out.

“What I will confirm is that the Russian intelligence service is determined, clever,” Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr, a North Carolina Republican, said in October. “And I recommend that every campaign and every election official take this very seriously.”

“The Russian active measures did not end on Election Day 2016,” the committee’s top Democrat, Senator Mark Warner of Virginia said, adding that the United States should take a “more aggressive whole government approach” to combat Russian interference.

In pursuing a comprehensive strategy, Democratic staff members on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee recommended examining Russia’s actions in Europe and elsewhere.

“The Europeans have learned some of these lessons and we can learn from them,” a staff member said. “Russia can be deterred.”

“There is a long bipartisan tradition in Congress in support of firm policies to counter Russian government aggression and abuse against its own citizens, our allies, and universal values,” the Foreign Relation Committee’s top Democrat, Senator Ben Cardin of Maryland, wrote in an introduction to the document. “This report seeks to continue that tradition.”

— This report was embargoed and, as a result, VOA was unable to get White House reaction before its release.
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During his first state visit to China this week, French President Emmanuel Macron brought with him two key messages, analysts said.

One message was about the huge possibilities cooperation between China and Europe could bring and his commitment to that effort. The other, a warning to not underestimate growing concern and frustration in Europe – and elsewhere – with what many regard as China’s unfair trade practices such as investment restrictions in many sectors that are not blocked in countries overseas.

Matheiu Duchatel, deputy director of the Asia and China Program at the European Council of Foreign Relations said President Macron’s visit goes beyond France.

“He wants to present himself as a leader of the EU, but at the same time, I think he wants to send a signal that Europe and the EU are in better shape than many think in China,” Duchatel said.

Despite the Brexit referendum, Catalonia’s push for independence and the broader rise of populist parties, Duchatel said that now – more than before – governments in Europe are voicing concern about China’s trade practices.

And it is not just Europe, but the United States and Australia as well, he adds, noting that China now faces a “united front from developed countries against its unfair trade practices.”

“Many are coming to terms with the reality that China is no longer the factory of the world, but it is clearly a country that has very strong ambitions in terms of economic leadership for the world and it is not a market economy,” Duchatel said.

Building relationships

In China, President Macron went to great lengths to highlight his desire to meld both the interests of Europe and China, presenting China’s leader Xi Jinping with a gift of a horse, an eight-year old gelding named Vesuvius.

Macron pledged to visit China at least once every year while in office and said that he is determined to “get the Europe-China relationship into the 21st Century.” The two signed several major trade deals during the visit, that included fields such as food, nuclear power and aerospace. President Xi said the two countries will deepen their “strategic cooperation.”

During his first stop in Xi’an, Macron talked up China’s massive trillion-dollar trade and commerce project, the “Belt and Road” initiative, offering Paris’s support, albeit with a caveat.

Xi’an was once the starting point of the Silk Road, ancient trade routes for silk, spices and horses that China seeks to build on adding maritime routes as well. In a speech at Daming Palace, the former royal residence during China’s Tang Dynasty, Macron noted that the ancient Silk Roads were never only Chinese.

“By definition these roads can only be shared,” he told an audience of academics, students and business people. “If they are roads, they cannot be one-way.”

In a speech at a start-up incubator Tuesday, with Alibaba Founder Jack Ma at his side, along with other French and Chinese companies, Macron also talked about the possibilities cooperation could bring and warned about the looming threat of protectionism if adjustments were not made.

“France imports 45 billion from China but only exports 15 billion, so we have access to markets which is unbalanced, unsatisfying. If we don’t deal with this responsibly, the first, natural, reaction, the one we’ve had for too long, will be to close up on both sides,” Macron said.

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a political science professor at Hong Kong Baptist University said that in many ways the trip is an effort to not only correct France’s deficit problems, but put relations between China and Europe on more equal footing.

“I think the message is clear, France and the European Union want more reciprocity a more balanced relationship, and also want to take advantage of the Silk Road initiative, but there are a lot of questions which are not going to be resolved by this trip,” Cabestan said.

Like France, economies across the globe want to do more business in the country’s massive market and have more investment come to their shores, but China’s pace of adopting reforms to further open up its doors is feeding a global backlash.

The United States and European Union are currently looking at ways to tighten scrutiny of foreign investments and Macron is an advocate of a tighter screening mechanism in Europe for some sectors. A position he did not hide during the visit. But for now, it’s unclear if anything will change soon.

Some analysts argue that given Chinese President Xi Jinping’s frequent stated opposition to protectionism and support for globalization, he has no choice but to press ahead with reforms and soon. Others, however, are not as convinced, noting Xi’s strong support for state-owned enterprises over the past two years.

Zhang Lun, a political scientist at the Universite de Cergy-Pointoise said that there is still a big push back against western companies gaining a bigger share of China’s market.

“Overall it will be very tough for France to achieve its objective (balancing the deficit), much like (U.S. President) Donald Trump has struggled to balance trade as well. But at the same time, China needs the international market to cope with the growing pressure (to open up more) and its slowing economy,” Zhang said.

If China continues to ignore such calls, however, the relationship is likely to only continue to deteriorate.
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Poland’s ruling conservatives fired several senior government ministers on Tuesday in an apparent move to patch up relations with the European Union strained over accusations that Warsaw is subverting rule of law standards.

Facing unprecedented EU legal action over the alleged politicization of Poland’s judiciary, the Law and Justice (PiS) party may want to defuse tensions in other areas such as environment policy and defense, analysts say.

The changes also came with the EU about to embark on negotiations on a new seven-year budget that will decide which member states get what out of the bloc’s coffers – with Poland currently the biggest net recipient.

President Andrzej Duda, acting on recommendations of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, dismissed Environment Minister Jan Szyszko, who has spearheaded far-reaching logging in an ancient forest that prompted action by the European Court of Justice.

Also losing their job were Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz, a former anti-communist crusader facing criticism over delays in modernizing the army as well as conflicts with top generals, as well as Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski, seen in Brussels as an ineffective diplomat.

The reshuffle removed ministers seen from the EU perspective as combative or ill-informed. It followed the appointment of former bank CEO and finance minister Morawiecki as prime minister, replacing Beata Szydlo, last month at the midpoint of the parliamentary term. PiS faces local elections in late 2018 and legislative and presidential ballots in 2019 and 2020.

“The new (government) should help us build a sovereign Poland within a strong Europe, a Europe of homelands,” Morawiecki said after the new appointments were announced.

The feud between Brussels and Warsaw’s eurosceptic government has emerged as a central element of mounting tensions between wealthier western EU members and the ex-communist east amid a wider debate over the bloc’s future.

Many westerners are keen for EU countries to integrate further in the wake of Britain’s shock decision to leave the bloc, but this is strongly opposed by nationalist-minded politicians dominating eastern EU countries such as Poland and Hungary.

Questions Whether Gesture Will Work

It remains to be seen whether Morawiecki will improve Warsaw’s relations with EU headquarters in Brussels. He travels there later on Tuesday to meet top EU officials.

Poland could face the suspension of its EU voting rights if it fails to strike a compromise on democracy and rule of law issues with Brussels, although Hungary’s like-minded government has threatened to veto such a move.

Judicial reforms at the heart of the dispute with Brussels are seen by PiS as a fundamental element of its efforts to overhaul Poland’s democratic institutions.

“The president has already signed judiciary legislation into law so it seems the conflict is irresolvable here,” said Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

In a sign that policy is unlikely to change, Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro kept his job. New rules had given Ziobro powers to appoint the heads of lower-level courts as well as exercise oversight over prosecutors.

The PiS believes reforms are needed because the country has lost sight of its Catholic soul and is steeped in mentality and power structures dating to the post-war communist era. Critics say that the government’s efforts to wield control over courts and public media are tilting Poland towards authoritarian rule.

Szyszko had attracted widespread criticism domestically over moves to lift limits on hunting and felling of trees on private property – which led to massive logging in areas of Poland.

Radziwill has struggled to contain widespread protests by medical residents in recent months over working conditions, which have exacerbated staffing shortages in some notoriously underfunded hospitals.

The outgoing defense minister has been the PiS investigator into the 2010 plane crash over Russia that killed President Lech Kaczynski – the twin brother of current PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski – and dozens of senior officials.

Kaczynski and Macierewicz believe the crash may have been caused by foul play and not pilot error, which was the official cause returned by an investigation by the previous centrist government and is believed by the majority of Poles.
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President Donald Trump is planning to attend the World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Davos later this month.

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders says in a statement that the president welcomes the opportunity to promote his “America First” agenda with world leaders.

Sanders says Trump wants to promote his policies for strengthening American businesses, industries and workers.

The annual gathering of global political and business elites is scheduled to take place from January 23-26 in Switzerland.

American presidents rarely attend. Then-vice president Joe Biden attended last year.

The New York Times first reported on Trump’s plans to attend the forum.

 
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Tuesday said a sanctions-busting court case in New York involving Turkish nationals is a “political coup attempt” against him and his government. With Erdogan also threatening military action against a key U.S. ally in Syria, relations between the NATO allies could deteriorate further.

Erdogan alleged the conviction of a Turkish state banker in the federal case is the latest attempt by the FBI and CIA to unseat him. He made the comment while addressing members of his AK Party in parliament.

“Those who could not succeed in the military coup attempt in Turkey on July 15 [2016], are now searching for a different attempt in our country, he said. He cited the case in the U.S. as “the address of this political coup attempt.”

Ankara also accuses Washington of collaborating with U.S.-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen in the 2016 failed coup that left an estimated 150 people dead. The U.S. denies the accusation.Turkey has asked the U.S. to extradite Gulen, who lives in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania and has denied all involvement in the coup attempt.

Bilateral relations between the NATO allies, already deeply strained since the coup attempt, have been further exacerbated by the conviction in New York of Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a senior executive of Halkbank, on charges of violating U.S. sanctions against Iran.

The repercussions of that conviction could lead to a further ratcheting up of tensions, warned analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners.

“I see an escalation of the crisis,” he said. “The United States could threaten a wide range of sanctions; even the threat would cast a long shadow on the Turkish banking system. There would be immense difficulties for Turkish entities to borrow abroad.”

Turkey needs to borrow around $16 billion a month to cover its financial obligations.

Erdogan also threatened Tuesday to attack the Syrian Kurdish militia, the YPG, a key U.S. ally in the war against Islamic State. Ankara considers the militia a terrorist organization linked to an ongoing insurgency in Turkey.

Diplomatic columnist Semih Idiz of the al-Monitor website said the threat could be an effort to pressure Washington

“There is definite brinkmanship on the part of Turkey,” he said. “There is no doubt about that and there is no guarantee it will get what it wants. But Ankara is banking on the fact that Turkey is vitally strategic for Washington and somewhere it can’t be avoided, not that Turkey is courting Russia and all this. So I think Erdogan is trying to apply pressure to reduce whatever penalty is coming.”

To U.S. unease, Turkey is increasingly deepening relations with Russia. Erdogan is also looking to France after a visit last week to Paris, with pro-government media touting France as a more reliable ally than the United States.

But with both Paris and Moscow also supporting the Syrian Kurdish militia, analysts suggest Ankara is unlikely to carry out its threats against the group. They say if the current deterioration in relations with Washington continues, Ankara’s search for other allies is likely to intensify.
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Swiss authorities near the famed Matterhorn peak have closed ski slopes, hiking trails, cable cars, roads and train service into the nearby town of Zermatt amid a heightened risk of avalanches, stranding some 13,000 tourists in the town.

Janine Imesch of the Zermatt tourism office says power has been restored in the town and no people were at risk because authorities shuttered access to the nearby ski slopes and hiking trails a day earlier. Imesch says Tuesday “there is nothing to panic about, everything is fine.”

The office’s website earlier indicated that arrivals and departures from the town were not possible. It noted a “power breakdown all over Zermatt” and called on people to “stay at home” so as not to disrupt snow clearing crews.
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Poland’s new prime minister is looking to improve strained relations with partners in the European Union when he arrives in Brussels on Tuesday. 

Mateusz Morawiecki, who replaced Beata Szydlo last month, is expected to stand his ground over several thorny issues that have raised concerns across the EU. 

The Polish government’s stance on justice reform and immigration has prompted so much unease within the EU that a procedure to strip the country of voting rights in the 28-nation bloc has been started. 

“We are expecting Brussels to understand our position,” deputy Foreign Minister Konrad Szymanski said ahead of the introductory bilateral dinner between the new prime minister and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.  

Blurring separation of powers

EU leaders have questioned whether Poland, a member of the bloc since 2004, respects fundamental democratic rules over recent reforms to the judiciary. 

Juncker’s office sees the reform as blurring the separation of powers and gives the governing Law and Justice too much control over the judges.

Defending the changes, Morawiecki said in a New Year’s address that “as a sovereign state we have the right to mend our justice system.”

Poland’s refusal to take in its share of an EU quota of refugees is another source of tension.

Ahead of the meeting, Morawiecki is set to shuffle his government. The changes will be carefully monitored by top EU officials to see if they signal a more emollient approach to EU standards. 

EU seeks a show of unity

Already resigned to the departure of Britain next year, the EU wants to maintain unity as much as possible this year. 

“There is a kind of accumulated tension that is not convenient to either side and none of the sides wants to further escalate this tension,” said Malgorzata Bonikowska, head of the Center for International Relations think tank. 

Both sides are in a bind. 

The EU already faces a serious rebel in Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, with his staunch opposition to the EU’s migration policies. Orban could veto any attempt to strip Poland of its voting rights. 

However, Poland has no interest in escalating the crisis either as any road to EU departure could threaten the billions the country receives from EU coffers. In the 2014-2020 budget, Poland has been allocated 86 billion euros ($103 billion) in EU structural and investment funds. A vast majority of Poles support EU membership. 
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