«Аль-Джазіра»: українські олігархи нелегально рятували «гроші Януковича»
Олігархи Олександр Онищенко і Павло Фукс купили в Сергія Курченка за 30 мільйонів доларів зареєстровану на Кіпрі компанію Quickpace Limited – розслідування
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усі новини
Олігархи Олександр Онищенко і Павло Фукс купили в Сергія Курченка за 30 мільйонів доларів зареєстровану на Кіпрі компанію Quickpace Limited – розслідування
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Перший президент сучасної України Леонід Кравчук вважає, що для того, щоб зупинити війну, яку веде Росія проти України, потрібна безпосередня домовленість між керівництвом обох держав.
«Є ціла низка кроків, які можна об’єднати в одну систему», – сказав він в інтерв’ю Радіо Свобода про те, як, на його думку, можна зупинити цю війну.
«Перше – це домогтися, як би не було важко, і зустрітися на рівні російської та української влади, сам-на-сам. Те, що діється на Донбасі, – це рука Кремля. І поки ми не домовимося з Росією – що ми можемо, що Росія може, що ми не можемо, – ну, скажімо, про територіальну цілісність і суверенітет ми ніколи не можемо говорити, все останнє можна обговорювати. Це один із шляхів», – вважає він.
«Другий – змінити або наповнити «мінський формат» іншим змістом. Я тут бачу або перехід до «будапештського формату», або залишити «мінський», але наповнити його іншими можливостями», – додав Кравчук.
За його словами, припинення війни формально залежить від президента Росії Володимира Путіна – але «він слухає Росію». «Росія 150 років воює, утворилась еліта війни. У них інша філософія – у них немає людини, у них є держава», – сказав він.
«Наша українська система демократично ще не завершена, але ми вимальовуємо потреби людини, долю людини, право людини жити, думати і творити. Це важко дуже переходити до цього, але ми вже ідемо по цьому шляху. Росія не йде поки що, Путін це знає. Рейтинг його залежить не від економіки, а від того, яка Росія сильна, яка Росія могутня, що з Росією всі рахуються. Філософія інша. Росія хоче бути країною особливою і нав’язувати людям свої філософські тлумачення», – вважає Леонід Кравчук.
На його думку, маючи такого сусіда, як Росія, Україна має вихід – вступити до НАТО.
Леонід Кравчук, президент України після відновлення її незалежності в 1991–94 роках, також вважає, що Україна «поверне Крим тоді, коли Росія не зможе управляти Кримом». За його словами, така ситуація вже склалася була на початку 1950-х років, і тоді радянська влада передала Крим від Росії в підпорядкування Україні примусово, і вже Україні довелося «ставити Крим на ноги».
Росія, попри численні докази її агресії проти України, заперечує їх і стверджує, ніби на сході України триває начебто «громадянська війна», не пояснюючи, чому в ній беруть участь численні громадяни Росії, в тому числі кадрові військовослужбовці (цього Росія теж не визнає) і чому бойовики, що діють фактично під російським командуванням, використовують завезені з Росії озброєння.
Повністю інтерв’ю з Леонідом Кравчуком, що є спільним проектом Радіо Свобода і телеканалу «112 Україна», дивіться і читайте на сайті Радіо Свобода в понеділок, 8 січня.
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«Я очолюю комітет «За Україну в НАТО». Коли Україна стане членом НАТО, для Росії це буде удар. Але вона зрозуміє, що іншої України вже немає»
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British Prime Minister Theresa May has dismissed concerns about Donald Trump’s mental fitness, saying the U.S. president acts in what he sees as the best interests of his country.
A new book by journalist Michael Wolff quotes prominent Trump advisers as questioning the president’s competence.
Asked in an interview whether she thought concerns about Trump’s mental state were serious, May said: “No.”
She said that “when I deal with President Trump what I see is somebody who is committed to ensuring that he is taking decisions in the best interests of the United States.”
In the BBC interview broadcast Sunday, May reaffirmed that Trump would visit Britain. She did not give a date, or say whether it would be a full state visit or a lower-key working trip.
Turkey’s president and the Bulgarian prime minister have unveiled the historic Iron Church in Istanbul after a seven-year restoration project.
In Sunday’s opening ceremony, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the 120-year-old Sveti Stefan Church remains the “single example” of a church built on an iron skeleton.
The cross-shaped Bulgarian church was built on the banks of Istanbul’s Golden Horn in 1898 with 500-tons of prefabricated iron components shipped from Austria. Its restoration since 2011 cost an estimated $3.5 million.
Erdogan said the church contributes to the “beauty and wealth of Istanbul” and is the latest example of Turkey’s efforts to restore synagogues, chapels and churches.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov said his country would work to “normalize and improve” Turkey-European Union relations as his country assume the EU’s presidency.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel embarked Sunday on talks with the center-left Social Democrats on forming a new government, with leaders stressing the need for speed as they attempt to break an impasse more than three months after the country’s election.
Merkel’s conservative Union bloc and the Social Democrats have run Germany together for the past four years. But the Social Democrats vowed to go into opposition after a disastrous election result Sept. 24, and only reluctantly reconsidered after Merkel’s attempt to build a coalition with two smaller parties collapsed in November.
The effort to form a government has already become post-World War II Germany’s longest ahead of the preliminary talks starting Sunday.
Leaders aim to decide by Friday whether there’s enough common ground to move on to formal coalition negotiations _ a move that would require approval by a Jan. 21 congress of the Social Democrats, many of whom are deeply suspicious of another coalition. Those negotiations, if they happen, would likely take weeks and the Social Democrats have promised to hold a ballot of their entire membership on any coalition deal that emerges.
If the parties don’t form a coalition, the only remaining options would be for Merkel’s conservatives to lead an unprecedented minority government, or a new election.
“I think we can succeed,” Merkel said as she arrived for the talks. “We will work very quickly and very intensely … and always have in mind what people in Germany expect of us – they of course expect of politicians that they solve their problems.”
“I am going into these talks with optimism, but it is clear to me that a huge amount of work lies ahead of us in the coming days,” she added.
The Social Democrats’ leader, Martin Schulz, said his party will take a “constructive and open-ended” approach.
“We are not drawing red lines, but we want to implement as many red policies as possible in Germany,” he said, referring to the party’s color. “Germans are entitled to have this go quickly.”
In January 2018, Kosovo women who were raped by Serbian forces during the 1998-99 armed conflict will begin receiving recognition and compensation for their suffering. For nearly two decades, the women hesitated to tell their stories for fear of being marginalized, stigmatized and shunned. VOA’s Edlira Bllaca and Keida Kostreci report that the trauma is part of the women’s daily lives, and few perpetrators have been convicted for their crimes. Keida Kostreci narrates.
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Eritrea has temporarily shut down nearly 450 private businesses, the latest in a series of moves that has sent shockwaves through the economy of the Red Sea nation.
The closures were a response to companies hoarding cash and “failing to do business through checks and other banking systems,” according to a Dec. 29 editorial published by Eritrea’s Ministry of Information on the state-run website Shabait.com.
Most of the affected businesses operate in the hospitality sector, according to the announcement, and they will remain closed for up to eight months, depending on the severity of the violations.
About 58,000 private businesses operate across the country, according to the government; less than 1 percent was affected by the recent closures.
Replacing the currency
The government has taken other steps in recent years to reassert control over the economy.
In 2015, Eritrea mandated that citizens exchange all notes of the currency, the nakfa, for new notes. The government also imposed financial restrictions, including limits on the amount of cash that could be withdrawn from bank accounts or kept in private hands, according to multiple reports.
Business owners complained about the restrictions, and reports from inside the country indicate the rules have altered Eritrea’s black market exchange rate, which affects the price of many goods.
State control
Tesfa Mehari, a professor of economics in England, said the Eritrean government wants a state-owned economy. That’s a trap many other countries have fallen into that generally leads to economic failure, Mehari said.
“The government cannot develop the economy. Only the people can do that,” Mehari told VOA’s Tigrigna service. “The government can only be a facilitator. There hasn’t been a country in the world that developed because of government control.”
He also said that the closures harm people’s trust in the government and in banking institutions.
“At the end of the day, if the people of Eritrea want to develop the economy of the country, they can only work based on trust, especially with banks. What you have with banks is a matter of oath,” Mehari said.
Compounding this mistrust, he added, is that the government’s actions aren’t backed by a specific law or decree that is publicly available for all to read.
In a statement, the government also acknowledged shortcomings in modernizing its banking sector with up-to-date technology and relevant expertise, another potential impediment to confidence in the system.
In contrast, Ibrahim Ibrahim, an Eritrean-born accountant who supports the government, said the actions are needed to fight inflation and stabilize the currency.
“I don’t think the Eritrean government is trying to control the economy, and I don’t think that’s the current environment,” said Ibrahim, who is based in Washington, D.C. “However, there might be a situation where the government is taking measures to adjust things that are not normal and turn it into normalcy as per usual.”
He said any government has the right to regulate its currency and the businesses operating within its borders.
“When these businesses are given permission to work, that means they’re entering a contract,” he said. “At the core of entering into such agreements is that the businesses work within the legalities and the laws in place. If these businesses are not working according to the law, the government is going to take appropriate measures.”
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The Iranian town of Doroud should be a prosperous place — nestled in a valley at the junction of two rivers in the Zagros Mountains, it’s in an area rich in metals to be mined and stone to be quarried. Last year, a military factory on the outskirts of town unveiled production of an advanced model of tanks.
Yet local officials have been pleading for months for the government to rescue its stagnant economy. Unemployment is around 30 percent, far above the official national rate of more than 12 percent. Young people graduate and find no work. The local steel and cement factories stopped production long ago, and their workers haven’t been paid for months. The military factory’s employees are mainly outsiders who live on its grounds, separate from the local economy.
“Unemployment is on an upward path,” Majid Kiyanpour, the local parliament representative for the town of 170,000, told Iranian media in August. “Unfortunately, the state is not paying attention.”
It’s the economy
That’s a major reason Doroud has been a front line in the protests that have flared across Iran. Several thousand residents have been shown in online videos marching down Doroud’s main street, shouting, “Death to the dictator!” At night, young men set fires outside the gates of the mayor’s office and hurl stones at banks.
Anger and frustration over the economy have been the main fuel for the eruption of protests that began Dec. 28.
President Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate, had promised that lifting most international sanctions under Iran’s landmark 2015 nuclear deal with the West would revive Iran’s long-suffering economy. But while the end of sanctions did open up a new influx of cash from increased oil exports, little has trickled down to the wider population. At the same time, Rouhani has enforced austerity policies that hit households hard.
Demonstrations have broken out mainly in dozens of smaller cities and towns like Doroud, where unemployment has been most painful and where many in the working class feel ignored.
Fury at ruling class
The working classes have long been a base of support for Iran’s hard-liners. But protesters have turned their fury against the ruling clerics and the elite Revolutionary Guard, accusing them of monopolizing the economy and soaking up the country’s wealth.
Many protests have seen a startlingly overt rejection of Iran’s system of government by Islamic clerics.
“They make a man into god and a nation into beggars!” goes the cry heard in videos of several marches. “Clerics with capital, give us our money back!”
Food prices jump
The initial spark for the protests was a sudden jump in food prices. It is believed that hard-line opponents of Rouhani instigated the first demonstrations in the conservative city of Mashhad in eastern Iran, trying to direct public anger at the president. But as protests spread from town to town, the backlash turned against the entire ruling class.
Further stoking the anger was the budget for the coming year that Rouhani unveiled in mid-December, calling for significant cuts in cash payouts established by Rouhani’s predecessor as a form of direct welfare. Since he came to office in 2013, Rouhani has been paring them back. The budget also envisaged a new jump in fuel prices.
But amid the cutbacks, the budget revealed large increases in funding for religious foundations that are a key part of the clerical state-above-the-state, which receive hundreds of millions of dollars each year from the public coffers.
After the lifting of most sanctions in early 2016, the economy saw a major boost — 13.4 percent growth in the GDP in 2016, compared to a 1.3 percent contraction the year before, according to the World Bank. But almost all that growth was in the oil sector.
Growth outside the oil sector was at 3.3 percent. Major foreign investment has failed to materialize, in part because of continued U.S. sanctions hampering access to international banking and the fear other sanctions could eventually return.
Iran’s official unemployment rate is at 12.4 percent, and unemployment among the young, those 19 to 29, has reached 28.8 percent, according to the government-run Statistical Center of Iran.
The provinces face more economic hardship, but the pain has been felt in the capital, Tehran, and other major cities as well. But there it’s been more cushioned within a large middle class. Many can ignore those picking through trash for food. However, in December 2016, Iranians expressed shock over a series of photographs in a local newspaper showing homeless drug addicts sleeping in open graves in Shahriar, on Tehran’s western outskirts.
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Голова Меджлісу кримськотатарського народу Рефат Чубаров привітав українців, які відзначають Різдво Христове 7 січня, і зазначив, що український народ звільнить анексований Росією Крим і відновить територіальну цілісність України. Про це Чубаров написав у Facebook 6 січня.
«Успадкована нами віра предків, любов кожного з нас до своєї землі, культури, мови і традицій, є важливішими факторами збереження і зміцнення незалежної Української держави. Завдяки цим якостям ми обов’язково звільнимо Крим від російських окупантів і відновимо територіальну цілісність України. Нехай в ці дні в кожен будинок і кожну людську душу зійдуть мир, добро і любов», – написав Чубаров.
В Україні Різдво Христове за юліанським календарем є державним святом уже кількадесят років. Два тижні тому вперше Україна відзначила як державне свято і Різдво за григоріанським календарем – так, як його святкує більша частина християнського світу.
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Russia’s Supreme Court has upheld a ruling barring opposition leader Alexei Navalny from running in the March presidential election.
The high court upheld the Central Election Commission’s decision banning Navalny from running because of his conviction on criminal charges.
Navalny and his followers say those charges were politically motivated.
Navalny has called for demonstrations across Russia on January 28 to protest the country’s upcoming presidential vote.
Polls say that incumbent President Vladimir Putin will likely win another six-year term when the election is held on March 18.
Navalny contends that Putin, who has spent the last 17 years as either president or prime minister, has been in power too long. The opposition leader says Putin’s popularity is largely due to biased state media and an electoral system that excludes legitimate opponents.
Putin, a former KGB officer, is running as an independent, a decision some observers believe would enhance his image as a leader of a nation instead of a party political figure.
Allies have praised Putin for restoring national pride and enhancing Russia’s position as a global leader with military interventions in Syria and Ukraine.
Президент України Петро Порошенко вважає, що минулий 2017 рік залишиться в історії України «з явним позитивом» – «на відміну від того» 17-го, тобто 1917 року, коли стався більшовицький переворот у Росії.
Зокрема, 2017-й став роком відновлення економічного зростання, написав президент у розділі «Погляди» на сайті українського журналу «Новое время».
За його словами, збільшення валового внутрішнього продуку за підсумками останніх дванадцяти місяців перевищить 2%, і це незважаючи на те, що «ініційована ура-патріотами економічна блокада Донбасу», за оцінками Національного банку України, принесла до 2,5 мільярдів доларів чистих втрат у торговому балансі. «Ми недорахувалися близько 1% зростання ВВП і отримали стагнацію в промисловості. Тим не менш, вдалося зберегти позитивний тренд», – заявив Порошенко.
На його думку, хороша новина в тому, що зламано кількарічну тенденцію падіння, що була спричинена війною, втратою вагомої частини індустріального потенціалу, економічною агресією з боку Росії. «Але підстав для феєрверка немає. Такі темпи – категорично незадовільні для стабільного розвитку економіки та відновлення рівня життя. Саме тому й шукаємо нестандартні, нетривіальні та ліберальні рішення для покращення інвестиційного клімату, прискорення економічного зростання, створення нових робочих місць», – наголосив президент.
Він також нагадав про зовнішньополітичні позитиви 2017 року – в першу чергу запровадження вільних безвізових поїздок для громадян України до країн Євросоюзу. Як пише голова держави, він бачить і наступні проміжні кроки в наближенні України до «копенгагенських критеріїв» членства в Європейському союзі – це асоціація з Шенгенською зоною, приєднання до Митного союзу ЄС, Енергетичного союзу ЄС і Єдиного цифрового ринку.
«Секторальна інтеграція фактично перетворить східні кордони країни на кордони ЄС ще до того, як ми де-юре приєднаємося до ЄС. Членство в Євросоюзі, як і вступ до НАТО, безумовно, залишаються нашою стратегічною метою», – пише Порошенко. Водночас він зазначив, що це «перспектива явно не 2018 року», але наголосив, що твердо переконаний у її реалістичності.
«У 2018-му країна продовжить впевнено розвиватися. В Україну прийдуть серйозні інвестори. В об’єднаних територіальних громадах пожинатимуть дедалі щедріші плоди децентралізації. Оновлені суди винесуть перші вироки високопоставленим корупціонерам. Ви побачите ще більше відремонтованих доріг, модернізовані ФАПи в рамках проекту реанімації сільської медицини. І нове озброєння для армії. Нагодувавши і одягнувши військо, ми можемо дозволити собі використовувати п’яту частину військового бюджету на озброєння і військову техніку», – додав президент.
«Хай же слова «мир та розвиток» об’єднаються в головний дороговказ на 2018 рік… Для цього нам потрібні не внутрішня боротьба всіх проти всіх, а консолідація зусиль влади, громадянського суспільства, міжнародних партнерів. І це – єдино можливий шлях для успішної України», – наголосив Петро Порошенко.
Цей його текст був опублікований у спеціальному випуску журналу «Новое время» спільно з британським The Economist «Світ у 2018-му», що був датований 21 грудня; нинішня публікація вийшла у відкритому доступі.
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Ex-Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili is vowing to fight the Georgian government if Ukrainian officials move to extradite him to Georgia in light of his conviction by a Tbilisi court Friday.
The court tried and convicted Saakashvili in absentia of abusing his pardon powers while in office. Georgia’s prosecutor says Saakashvili, who was in office from 2004-2013, tried to cover up evidence in the 2006 murder of Sandro Girgvliani. The 28-year-old banker was found dead outside of Tbilisi with multiple injuries after he was seen arguing in a bar with high-ranking Interior Ministry officials.
In 2008 Saakashvili pardoned four Georgian law enforcement officers convicted in Girgvliani’s murder. Georgian prosecutors claim the pardons failed to follow the procedures of a parliamentary commission on pardons and that the pardons were ultimately part of a deal to cover up evidence in an investigation of the banker’s death.
Saakashvili: Pardons were no cover-up
In an exclusive interview with VOA’s Georgian Service, Saakashvili again denied that the 2008 pardons were part of a cover-up.
“Of course [that] did not happen, but even if it had happened it would not have been a crime,” he said, describing presidential power of pardon as unlimited, “one of the very few powers that are totally unlimited for any president in the world.”
Presidential pardons, the power to absolve a convict of their conviction, while common, vary by country according to constitutional statues.
Saakashvili also called Friday’s sentencing a politically motivated conspiracy that “has nothing to do with legality.”
“Nobody ever has tried a former president for using right to pardon,” he said. “What we see is a joint effort by the Ukrainian and Georgian oligarchs. President Poroshenko went to Tbilisi last summer, [and since] he thinks that I am his main problem, he asked them to speed up the cases against me. And that’s when they came up with this case.”
It is not known whether Poroshenko and his Georgian counterparts ever discussed Saakashvili’s case. Shortly after Poroshenko’s July 2017 visit to Tbilisi, however, Kyiv officials stripped Saakashvili, who was on U.S. soil at the time, of his Ukrainian citizenship.
In August he flew to Poland before marching across the Ukrainian border surrounded by a throng of his political supporters who moved border guards aside and ultimately transported him to Kyiv, where he now lives as the world’s only stateless ex-president.
Renewed extradition dialogue
While Saakashvili’s legal turmoil has followed him from his native Georgia to his adopted home country of Ukraine, Friday’s ruling represents his first prison sentence. Ukrainian officials on Friday said they would consider Georgia’s extradition request, though legal procedures would have to be followed.
According to Saakashvili’s government-appointed lawyer, Sofio Goglichidze, the ruling violates “a number of legal provisions and the constitution.”
“It is obvious that political persecution is going against Mikheil Saakashvili,” Goglichidze said in an interview with RFE/RL. “It was impossible to deliver a guilty verdict in the case in accordance with the law.”
Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for the Ukrainian prosecutor general, told Reuters by phone: “[Ukrainian] prosecutors are in the process of arranging a date for Saakashvili’s questioning due to Georgia’s request to extradite him.”
But Saakashvili’s lawyer in Ukraine, Ruslan Chornolutskiy, told RFE/RL that his client’s legal status should prevent his extradition to Georgia.
“According to Ukrainian laws, a person who was a Ukrainian citizen and for the last several years resided in Ukraine cannot be extradited,” Chornolutskiy told RFE/RL. “That is what the law says on foreigners and individuals without citizenship, as well as the international convention that Ukraine has ratified.”
If extradited to Georgia, Saakashvili says he will start a “peaceful fight” to remove the government of billionaire and former prime minister of Georgia Bidzina Ivanishvili from power.
“Ivanishvili is very reluctant to get me in Georgia because I am not going to sit quietly in a prison cell,” he told VOA. “For God’s sake, I am a founding father of modern Georgia. I have a huge support among populist there and also among majority of law enforcement and armed services. I am going to call for getting rid of Ivanishvili’s government if they extradite me there. I will do it. I am saying it openly. We will do it peacefully, but we will do it.
“I am not going to allow them to execute the wish of [Russian President] Vladimir Putin by punishing me through the hands of the Georgian jail administration and law-enforcement,” he said.
As Georgia’s president, Saakashvili lost a five-day war in which Russian forces drove deep into Georgia in 2008. He has since referred to himself as Putin’s “biggest enemy in the post-Soviet space.”
Since Saakashvili’s September return to Ukraine, he has led a number of anti-corruption protests against the government.
This story originated in VOA’s Georgian Service.
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Державний секретар США Рекс Тіллерсон заявив, що в розмовах із керівниками Росії Вашингтон давав знати, що вирішальним для поліпшення відносин між їхніми країнами є питання України.
Як сказав Тіллерсон в інтерв’ю американській медіакомпанії «Сі-ен-ен» 5 січня, США виступають за те, щоб мати з Росією «більш продуктивні відносини», які нині дуже напружені, але «ми маємо зробити поступ щодо України».
За його словами, нинішня ситуація з відсутністю поступу шкодить самій Росії.
При цьому, додав держсекретар, США намагаються й далі тримають в осередді уваги такі справді важливі питання, що стоять між Вашингтоном і Москвою, як становище в Сирії, в Україні, у Східній Європі тощо.
Усупереч побоюванням щодо можливого проросійського курсу нової адміністрації США, що виникали після обрання на посаду президента США Дональда Трампа, Вашингтон залишається союзником України в її протистоянні агресії Росії. США, зокрема, продовжують зберігати накладені щодо Росії санкції через цю агресію і накладати нові санкції з інших причин, надають Україні дипломатичну підтримку і певну військову допомогу, а останнім часом схвалили й надання Києву летальних озброєнь.
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Two U.S. senators have called for a criminal investigation of a former British spy who authored a salacious report about Donald Trump when he was a businessman, a report known as the Steele Dossier.
The letter, released on Friday by Republicans Chuck Grassley and Lindsey Graham, adds to the turmoil that has plagued the Trump administration and will likely deepen the bipartisan rancor in Congress over both the dossier and also interactions between Trump associates and Russian officials.
In their letter, the two called on the Justice Department to investigate Christopher Steele for what they alleged were false statements Steele made about how the dossier was circulated.
“This referral does not pertain to the veracity of claims contained in the dossier,” the senators said in a statement.
Steele and his lawyers could not immediately be reached for comment.
Former British spy
Steele, a former MI6 officer with deep experience in Russia, was hired by a Washington-based political research firm known as Fusion GPS in the summer 2016.
Fusion had earlier been retained by a Republican donor interested in gathering embarrassing political dirt on Trump, but after Trump won the Republican nomination, Fusion was hired by a law firm with connections to the Democratic Party.
Steele’s research, which focused on Russia and Trump’s ties there, resulted in a 35-page report that circulated among political operatives and reporters in Washington for months until BuzzFeed published the entire dossier online in January 2017.
News reports have said the FBI had considered paying Steele for more research but later decided not to.
Trump has repeatedly denied the allegations in the dossier. Some Republicans have also asserted that the dossier was what prompted the FBI to open its criminal investigation in July 2016 into Russia’s interactions with Trump-connected officials, something contradicted by court documents and other public statements.
Grassley calls for inquiry
Grassley, who heads the Senate Judiciary Committee, earlier called for a Justice Department investigation of Fusion GPS, suggesting the firm was involved in a Russian-linked lobbying campaign to undermine the 2012 U.S. Magnitsky Act, which punishes Russians deemed to be human rights abusers.
In an opinion piece published in The New York Times on Tuesday, the founders of Fusion GPS accused Republican lawmakers of trying to obscure Trump’s Russian connections and called on Grassley to release transcripts of their testimony to the Judiciary Committee.
The Judiciary Committee is one of three congressional panels investigating interactions between Trump associates and Russian officials.
The FBI probe, now taken over by special counsel Robert Mueller, has resulted in two indictments and two guilty pleas, including from Trump’s first national security adviser, Michael Flynn.
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The U.S. economy ended 2017 by adding 148,000 new jobs in December. Despite the modest gain, hiring was strong enough to suggest the economic momentum will continue. But while the national unemployment rate remained unchanged at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent, analysts say the pace of job growth may be slowing down. Mil Arcega has more.
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Chances that a fix to a major microchip security flaw may slow down or crash some computer systems are leading some businesses to hold off installing software patches, fearing the cure may be worse than the original problem.
Researchers this week revealed security problems with chips from Intel Corp and many of its rivals, sending businesses, governments and consumers scrambling to understand the extent of the threat and the cost of fixes.
Rather than rushing to put on patches, a costly and time-intensive endeavor for major systems, some businesses are testing the fix, leaving their machines vulnerable.
“If you start applying patches across your whole fleet without doing proper testing, you could cause systems to crash, essentially putting all of your employees out of work,” said Ben Johnson, co-founder of cyber-security startup Obsidian.
Flaws not ‘critical’
Banks and other financial institutions spent much of the week studying the vulnerabilities, said Greg Temm, chief information risk officer with the Financial Services Financial Services Information Sharing and Analysis Center, an industry group that shares data on emerging cyber threats.
The flaws affect virtually all computers and mobile devices, but are not considered “critical” because there is no evidence that hackers have figured out how to exploit them, said Temm, whose group works with many of the world’s largest banks.
“It’s like getting a diagnosis of high blood pressure, but not having a cardiac arrest,” Temm said. “We’re taking it seriously, but it’s not something that is killing us.”
Testing the patches
Banks are testing the patches to see if they slow operations and, if so, what changes need to be made, Temm said. For instance, computers could be added to networks to make up for the lack of processor speed in individual machines, he added.
Some popular antivirus software programs are incompatible with the software updates, causing desktop and laptop computers to freeze up and show a “blue screen of death,” researcher Johnson said.
Antivirus software makers responded by rolling out fixes to make their products compatible with the updated operating systems, he said. In a blog posting Friday, Microsoft Corp said it would only offer security patches to Windows customers whose antivirus software suppliers had confirmed with Microsoft that the patch would not crash the customer’s machine.
“If you have not been offered the security update, you may be running incompatible antivirus software, and you should consult the software vendor,” Microsoft advised in the blog post.
Government agencies also are watching. The Ohio Attorney General’s office is monitoring the situation, a spokesman said by email.
“Intel continues to believe that the performance impact of these updates is highly workload-dependent and, for the average computer user, should not be significant and will be mitigated over time,” the world’s No. 1 chipmaker said on Thursday in a release.
No significant patch impact
It cited Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc’s and Microsoft as saying that most users had seen no significant impact on performance after installing the patches.
The cloud vendors are among a group of firms that quickly patched their technology to mitigate against the threat from one of those vulnerabilities, dubbed Meltdown, which only affects machines running Intel chips.
Major software makers have not issued patches to protect against the second vulnerability, dubbed Spectre, which affects nearly all computer chips made in the last decade, including those from Intel, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, and ARM-architecture manufacturers, including Qualcomm Inc.
However, Google, Firefox and Microsoft have implemented measures in most web browsers to stop hackers from launching remote attacks using Spectre.
Governments and security experts say they have seen no cyber attacks seeking to exploit either vulnerability, though they expect attempts by hackers as they digest technical data about the security flaws.
One key risk is that hackers will develop code that can infect the personal computers of people visiting malicious websites, said Chris Wysopal, chief technology officer of cyber security firm Veracode.
He advised PC owners to install the patches to protect against such potential attacks. Computer servers at large enterprises are less at risk, he said, because those systems are not used to surf the web and can only be infected in a Meltdown attack if a hacker has breached that network.
Operating system protection
Microsoft has issued a patch for its Windows operating system, and Apple desktop users with the most recent operating system are protected. Google has said most of its Chromebook laptops are already protected and that the rest would be soon.
Apple said it planned to release a patch to its Safari web browser within coming days to protect Mac and iOS users from Spectre.
While third-party browsers from Google and others can protect Mac users from Spectre, all major web browsers for Apple’s iOS devices depend on receiving a patch from Apple.
Until then, hundreds of millions of iPhone and iPad users will be exposed to potential Spectre attacks while browsing the web.
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An 892-pound (405-kilogram) bluefin tuna has sold for 36.5 million yen ($320,000) in what may really be Tsukiji market’s last New Year auction at its current site in downtown Tokyo, local media reports said Friday.
The winning bid for the prized but threatened species at the predawn auction was well below the record 155.4 million yen bid at 2013’s annual New Year auction. It amounted to about 90,000 yen ($798) per kilogram and was paid by a local wholesaler, the reports said.
This year’s top per kilogram price, for a smaller tuna, was $1,419, compared with about $7,930 per kilogram for the 2013 record-setting auction price, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and other local media reported. That price was paid by Kiyomura Corp., whose owner, Kiyoshi Kimura, runs the Sushi Zanmai chain, the reports said. Kimura has often won the annual auction in the past.
The reports said the top-priced tuna was one of the biggest ever sold at the auction.
Last year’s New Year auction was supposed to be the last at Tsukiji’s current location, as was the New Year auction the year before. The market’s shift to a new facility on a former gas plant site on Tokyo Bay has been repeatedly delayed because of concerns over soil contamination.
Japanese are the biggest consumers of the torpedo-shaped bluefin tuna, and surging consumption here and overseas has led to overfishing of the species. Experts warn it faces possible extinction, with stocks of Pacific bluefin depleted by more than 97 percent from their pre-industrial levels.
There are signs of progress toward protecting the bluefin, though. Japan has begun enforcing laws banning catches that exceed quotas, with violators subject to fines or possible jail time.
Japan and other governments recently agreed on a plan to rebuild Pacific bluefin stocks, with a target of 20 percent of historic levels by 2034.
Tsukiji is one of Tokyo’s most popular tourist destinations as well as the world’s biggest fish market. It was due to move to the new site, at Toyosu, in 2016. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike postponed the relocation, but after months of political haggling and uncertainty she announced the move would go ahead.
The new market is due to open October 11, 2018.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is one of two senior Turkish officials who have made or are making trips to European Union countries in what analysts say is a diplomatic offensive to reset relations with the 28-member bloc.
The EU is Turkey’s No. 1 import and export partner. Relations between Ankara and the EU, however, have been strained in part over human rights in Turkey, a controversial referendum last year to extend his powers, refugee migration and Turkey’s quest for visa-free travel for its citizens across the EU.
Erdogan met Friday in France with counterpart Emmanuel Macron for talks on Syria and trade, and he signed a series of contracts. The two presidents also witnessed the signing of an agreement in which Turkish Airlines will purchase 25 jets from Airbus.
In a recent interview, Macron confirmed he regularly speaks with Erdogan, conversations that analysts say the Turkish president values. “The steps we have taken until now with Mr. Macron are all in the right direction and I have a lot of hopes in Mr. Macron,” Erdogan said to reporters before leaving for Paris.
Message from Kalin
Turkey has been seeking to join the European Union but cannot do so unless certain criteria required for membership have been met. Ahead of the Paris visit, Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin, speaking to the France 24 news channel, sent a message to the EU: “As Turkey, we see EU membership as a strategic aim; however, in recent years, not much progress has been made in this regard, due to several reasons. We want to overcome these troubles.”
Ankara’s ongoing crackdown following a failed coup in 2016 has resulted in tens of thousands of arrests and the jailing of dozens of people, including journalists. The crackdown threatens the collapse of the troubled relations with the EU.
Ahead of Erdogan’s visit, Macron offered thinly veiled criticism of Turkey. “Freedom of the press is not only being damaged in dictatorships but also in some democratic European states as well,” he told reporters.
Human rights concerns are set to be an even bigger obstacle to Ankara’s bid to smooth over relations with Europe’s other major powerhouse, Germany. German-Turkish relations all but collapsed last year over Ankara’s accusations that Berlin was harboring hundreds of people linked to a 2016 coup attempt. Berlin, meanwhile, has likened the arrest and jailing of a number of its citizens, including two journalists and a human rights activist, to hostage taking.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is scheduled to visit his German counterpart, Sigma Gabriel, on Saturday in Goslar, Germany.
“Both sides have an interest in a new start in the bilateral relationship as we live in a time full of challenges,” Cavusoglu wrote this week in an op-ed piece for a German newspaper. “It is not the time for bullhorn diplomacy.”
Following a surprise meeting between the Turkish and German foreign ministers in November at the Turkish Mediterranean Sea resort of Antalya, both sides have started to take tentative steps to ease tensions. Three Germans being detained have been released. Deniz Yucel, a journalist for German newspaper Die Welt, remains incarcerated, although his conditions have improved with the ending of months of solitary confinement.
‘Very difficult’ path ahead
Despite such steps, experts warn Ankara faces a protracted process in improving relations with the EU.
“It will be very difficult to bring normalcy to Turkish-German relations,” said international relations expert Soli Ozel of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.
The release of Yucel is seen by analysts as key by Berlin to any substantive progress. Erdogan has previously said that as long as he remains in power, Yucel will never be free.
Given its growing isolation, however, Turkey could be set to make more gestures to Europe.
Turkey faces a similar situation with its other key Western ally, the United States. Until now, Ankara has been happy to look to Moscow to send the message that Ankara can do without its traditional allies. But growing dependence on Moscow is coming at an increasing cost.
“Russia is the leading engine, and Turkey is the wagon of the Russian policy,” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “Unfortunately at the moment, Turkey is just doing and repeating what Russia is saying. So Turkey is very strongly under the influence of Russia, which has never been the case in the last 25 years.”
While Ankara has found some common ground with Moscow in the region, the countries are historical rivals, as is the case with Iran, another country with whom Turkey has started to develop warming relations.
“Turkey and Iran have issues that could flare up anytime,” said political columnist Semih Idiz of the Al Monitor website.
Observers say Ankara now could be realizing the precarious situation it is facing and a realization of the need for a more balanced diplomatic approach. They say the cost could be high, with European countries expected to press for an easing up on the crackdown.
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The Italian Riviera, like its French counterpart, is known for its resorts, glamour and beauty. But away from the tourists, hundreds of migrants and refugees willingly endure grim conditions and risk their lives, making repeated attempts to cross the border.
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Officials say Queen Elizabeth II’s granddaughter Zara Tindall and her husband Mike Tindall are expecting their second child.
Buckingham Palace said Friday the queen and the royal family are “very pleased” with the news.
The pregnancy comes just over a year after Tindall suffered a miscarriage shortly before Christmas in 2016. She is an Olympic silver medal winner in equestrian events and the daughter of Princess Anne. Her husband is a former England rugby player.
They have a three-year-old daughter named Mia.
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Рада міністрів Білорусі ухвалила рішення закрити консульство країни в Одесі до 23 лютого, повідомляє прес-служба білоруського уряду.
«Міністерству закордонних справ доручено вжити необхідних заходів щодо закриття цього генерального консульства», – заявили в уряді Білорусі.
Про причини такого рішення в Раді міністрів не повідомляють.
Уряд Білорусі ухвалив постанову щодо відкриття консульства в Одесі 9 березня 2011 року.
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Колишній міністр охорони здоров’я анексованого Криму Петро Михальчевський підписав вручену йому підозру в державній зраді, повідомили проекту Радіо Свобода Крим.Реалії в прес-службі прокуратури Криму.
У відомстві зазначили, що Михальчевського допитали в Києві 5 січня. Як заявили в прокуратурі, вживаються заходи для притягнення громадянина до кримінальної відповідальності за статтею 111 Кримінального кодексу України («державна зрада»). Санкція статті передбачає покарання у вигляді позбавлення волі на строк до 15 років.
Сам Михальчевський поки не коментує заяви української Служби безпеки та прокуратури.
5 грудня в СБУ повідомили, що її співробітники встановили факт перебування Михальчевського в Києві. За даними Служби безпеки, він «безпосередньо брав участь у створенні незаконних органів влади на тимчасово окупованому півострові».
10 червня 2014 року призначений Москвою міністр охорони здоров’я анексованого Криму Петро Михальчевський написав заяву про відставку за власним бажанням. Російський голова Криму стверджував, що змусив Михальчевського подати у відставку, щоб його не звільняли «за статтею».
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У Запоріжжі 5 січня відбулася акція «Запоріжжя – за адекватний гумор». Її учасники протестували проти расизму, сексизму і будь-якої ксенофобії на телебаченні, повідомляє кореспондент Радіо Свобода.
З собою активісти принесли плакати з написами: «Ні – розпалюванню ненависті», «Сексизм – це не смішно», «Спочатку на ТБ, потім – тебе», «ТБ також відповідає за злочин».
За словами учасників акції, приводом для неї стала мініатюра з новорічного випуску «Вечірнього кварталу» від студії «Квартал 95», показаного на «1+1», що, на думку активістів, містить ознаки гомофобії.
«Ми звертаємося до телеканалів, по-перше, з вимогою фільтрувати контент, заснований на расизмі, сексизмі, гомофобії й інших ксенофобіях. Наші вимоги до «Квартал 95» й інших продакшн-студій – не випускати подібний контент, який може образити почуття будь-яких українців незалежно від їхної сексуальної орієнтації, гендеру чи якихось інших ознак… Подібний гумор лише спричиняє ще більшу фобію і дискримінацію», – заявив ініціатор акції Дмитро Калінін.
4 січня у Києві через згадану мініатюру під стіни телеканалу «1+1» прийшли декілька активістів, які виступили проти гомофобії, трансфобії, расизму, сексизму і будь-якої ксенофобії на телебаченні і закликали телеканал і студію до публічних вибачень.
«1+1» і «Квартал 95» перепросили глядачів на своїх офіційних сторінках у мережі Facebook, однак до пікетувальників не вийшли. «Квартал 95» також прибрав із усіх інтернет-ресурсів відео цієї мініатюри.
Наразі Національна рада з питань телебачення і радіомовлення проводить моніторинг каналу «1+1» у зв’язку з інцидентом.
U.S. employers added 148,000 jobs in December, a modest gain but still enough to suggest that the economy entered the new year with solid momentum.
The unemployment rate remained 4.1 percent for a third straight month, the lowest level since 2000, the Labor Department said Friday.
For all of 2017, employers added nearly 2.1 million jobs, enough to lower the unemployment rate from 4.7 percent a year ago. Still, average job gains have slowed to 171,000 this year from a peak of 250,000 in 2014. That typically happens when the unemployment falls to ultra-low levels and fewer people are available to be hired.
While modest, the job gains underscore the economy’s continued health in its ninth year of recovery. The unemployment rate for African-Americans dropped to a record low of 6.8 percent.
Solid economic growth in both the United States and major countries overseas is supporting more hiring. Factory managers received the most new orders in December than in any month since 2004. Retailers have reported strong holiday sales. Builders are ramping up home construction to meet growing demand.
Sales of existing homes reached their fastest pace in nearly 11 years in November. Consumer confidence is at nearly a 17-year high. And the Dow Jones industrial average reached 25,000 for the first time on Thursday.
Most economists expect the Trump administration’s tax cuts to help speed the economy’s already decent pace of growth. Some envision the unemployment rate dropping as low as 3.5 percent by the end of 2018. A rate that low would mark the lowest such level in nearly a half-century, and it would likely force businesses to accelerate pay raises to attract and retain employees. Pay raises have remained puzzlingly sluggish for many U.S. workers despite the robust job market.
Some businesses, though, are already howling that they can’t find enough qualified people. There are roughly 6 million available jobs, near a record high, according to government data. Should unemployment fall to 3.5 percent, those complaints will intensify.
For at least two years, economists have been expecting the falling unemployment rate to boost wages. Though average hourly pay growth has picked up a bit, it remains about 1 percentage point below the 3.5 percent annual gain that typically occurs in a healthy economy.
Economists point to several trends that may be keeping a lid on wage gains.
As the vast baby boom generation ages — 10,000 of them are turning 65 every day — they are retiring and are being replaced by younger workers, who typically earn far less money. That is likely suppressing overall wage growth, economists say.
Worker pay also depends on productivity, or how efficient employees are. And productivity has been weak for roughly a decade.
In 2000, the last time the unemployment rate fell this low, wages were growing at a 4 percent annual pace. But productivity, which measures workers’ output per hour, was much higher then. A falling unemployment rate can force up pay, but rising productivity has a much greater effect.
Many businesses, meanwhile, feel they have limited ability to pass on higher wages to consumers in the form of higher prices. Online shopping and cheaper imported goods make it easier for consumers to find bargains. That leaves retailers and other firms reluctant to raise pay.
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Britain should charge a 25-pence ($0.34) levy on disposable coffee cups to cut down waste and use the money to improve recycling facilities, a committee of lawmakers said Friday.
Chains Pret A Manger, Costa Coffee, Caffe Nero and Greggs alongside U.S. firm Starbucks are among the biggest coffee-sellers in Britain, rapidly expanding in the last 10 years to meet increasing demand.
Although some outlets give a discount to customers using their own cup, only 1-2 percent of buyers take up the offer, according to parliament’s environmental audit committee, which said a “latte levy” was needed instead.
2.5 billion cups a year
“The UK throws away 2.5 billion disposable coffee cups every year; enough to circle the planet 5½ times,” said chair of the committee, Mary Creagh.
“We’re calling for action to reduce the number of single-use cups, promote reusable cups over disposable cups and to recycle all coffee cups by 2023,” she said.
The committee said that if the recycling target is not met then disposable coffee cups should be banned.
Bag levy success
In October 2015, Britain introduced a charge of 5-pence on all single-use plastic bags provided by large shops, which led to an 83 percent reduction in UK plastic bags used in the first year.
On Friday the environment ministry said the government was working closely with the sector and had made progress in increasing recycling rates.
“We are encouraged by industry action to increase the recycling of paper cups with some major retail chains now offering discounts to customers with reusable cups,” said a spokeswoman.
“We will carefully consider the committee’s recommendations and respond shortly,” she said.
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Підтримувані Росією бойовики на Донбасі минулої доби здійснили двічі обстрілювали позиції Збройних сил України, в результаті поранень зазнав один український військовослужбовець. Як йдеться в повідомленні штабу на сторінці у Facebook, вперше за останні три доби був порушений режим перемир’я на луганському напрямку.
«Увечері понад 10 мін калібру 120 міліметрів бойовики випустили по оборонних укріпленнях сил АТО довкола Луганського. На Донецькому напрямку, ще за світлої пори доби, ворог вів вогонь з гранатометів та стрілецької зброї, а також 120-міліметрових мінометів біля Верхньоторецького», – йдеться в повідомленні.
За даними штабу, військові ЗСУ жодного разу вогонь у відповідь не відкривали.
В угрупованнях «ЛНР» та «ДНР» станом на 6:30 5 січня не повідомляють, як минули останні години на захоплених донецькими і луганськими бойовиками територіях.
Тристороння контактна група щодо врегулювання ситуації на Донбасі оголосила черговий режим тиші з півночі 23 грудня 2017 року. Він змінює оголошений у зв’язку з початком навчального року режим тиші, який не призвів до припинення обстрілів.
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Marijuana-related stocks plummeted, cannabis boosters worried about the industry’s future and defiant growers and sellers vowed to keep operating after U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions signaled a tougher approach Thursday to federal pot enforcement.
The plunging stock prices reversed a weekslong rally driven by optimism for legal recreational sales that started Monday in California. Several marijuana stocks saw double-digit losses in the hours after Sessions’ announcement, including the largest pot-producing company that is publicly traded.
Canopy Growth, a Canada-based company with the ticker symbol WEED, lost $3.58 a share, or 10 percent, to close at $32.32 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Shares of garden-supply company Scotts Miracle-Gro also skidded Thursday, following a steady rise last year after it added fertilizer, lights and other products to serve marijuana growers. The company’s share price fell by as much as 7 percent before closing down 2.3 percent, or $2.49, to $106.17 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Investors spooked
“Jeff Sessions’ decision to rescind the Cole memoranda puts the marijuana industry and marijuana legalization efforts in a precarious position,” said Aaron Herzberg, a California lawyer and founder of the cannabis investment company CalCann Holding, referring to an Obama-era memo that limited U.S. crackdowns on pot in states where it’s legal.
Brent Kenyon, a consultant who helps advise and establish recreational marijuana businesses in Oregon, said his phone had been ringing all Thursday with calls from worried clients. Investors, including some who are involved in his businesses, are spooked, he said.
“I’m just telling people to hold off. We need more information, we need to see what the president is going to say about this,” he said by phone from a cannabis conference in Hawaii.
Andy Williams, CEO of the Medicine Man Denver dispensary, is taking a wait-and-see approach to the new policy but pointed out the economic impact of legal pot.
“This industry around the United States has attracted a lot of investment. Billions of dollars in investment,” he said. “Just talking about what Sessions wants to do today has dropped the market.”
’Business as usual’
Steve DeAngelo, owner of California’s largest marijuana retailer, said it will be “business as usual” at his Harborside dispensary in Oakland.
“I think the main impact of this is really going to be on investors, more than anything else,” he said. “Some investors might get a bit nervous about putting more money into the cannabis industry until the situation resolves itself.”
Another of California’s largest marijuana operators said it also plans no changes in response to Sessions’ announcement.
“For this industry and for this community, we are really based on resilience, going against the tide. This is no different,” said Michael Steinmetz, CEO of Flow Kana, which distributes cannabis products from small, outdoor farmers. “From my perspective, things don’t change.”
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Wall Street sure loves the tax bill, even if polls show most Americans don’t.
The Dow Jones industrial average surged past 25,000 Thursday, a strong signal of investor enthusiasm for President Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut. The milestone comes less than a year after the Dow topped 20,000.
“We broke a very, very big barrier,” Trump said Thursday at the White House. “Every time you see that number go up on Wall Street it means jobs, it means success, it means 401(k)s that are flourishing.”
It’s easy to see why investors like the tax overhaul: Businesses will benefit from a steep cut in the corporate tax rate. They’ll also be able to fully deduct the cost of major purchases from their taxable income, reducing the amount they owe. And companies with large stockpiles of cash overseas can bring the money back to the United States at new, lower rates.
All told, Wall Street analysts estimate the tax package should boost earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index by roughly 8 percent this year. That’s much more generous than the average tax cut of 1.6 percent that middle-class families will receive, according to the Tax Policy Center.
“All else being equal, this should go straight to the bottom line,” said David Joy, chief market strategist for Ameriprise Financial, a financial services company based in Minneapolis. Improved corporate profits contributed to the market’s gains last year.
The public has been less enthusiastic about the tax law. A Monmouth University poll last month found that nearly half of Americans disapproved of it, with only 26 percent in support.
Where profits will go
Still, some workers have seen a benefit: So far, nearly 20 large companies have announced bonuses and higher minimum wages as a result of the tax cut. AT&T, Comcast, Bank of America, and American Airlines have all pledged to pay $1,000 bonuses to their employees.
Investors also appear less concerned than many politicians about how the additional profits will be used. The Trump administration says it expects companies will plow much of the extra profit back into their businesses, purchasing more software, machinery, and other equipment. Those investments will make workers more productive and provide a key boost to the economy’s long-run growth. They should also boost wages and salaries for employees.
Opponents of the tax law respond that companies are more likely to pass the windfall on to shareholders in the form of higher dividend payments and share buybacks, which raise the price of those shares still in investors’ hands. Previous cuts in corporate tax rates, in the U.S. and overseas, haven’t always led to higher wages.
For Wall Street, it’s all good, at least in the short run. Most analysts take the view that either way, companies and the economy will benefit. Whether businesses pass most of the extra money to workers or to shareholders, consumer spending should increase and lift economic growth.
Trump has repeatedly made highly optimistic claims about the impact of his tax cuts and other policies on the economy, speculating that they would lead to annual growth of 4 percent or higher.
Expectations
Last month, the Treasury Department estimated that the economy will expand at a 2.9 percent annual rate for the next decade.
Private economists, as well as the Federal Reserve, forecast a more modest impact. Most expect growth will be closer to 2.5 percent in 2018 and slower than that in subsequent years.
Some companies and sectors will likely benefit more than others, particularly if they derive most of their income from the United States. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that large banks will see their earnings rise by 13 percent as a result of the corporate rate cut. Wells Fargo will likely see the biggest gain, at 18 percent.
Analysts at Stifel, an investment bank, project that some restaurant chains could see earnings boosts of 20 percent or more, including Chipotle, Wingstop and Domino’s Pizza.
Barclays, another bank, says that technology and pharmaceutical firms, which are already paying lower taxes because they have lots of cash overseas, will see much smaller increases of less than 4 percent.
The legislation’s corporate tax cut is not necessarily as dramatic as it seems, because most corporations don’t end up paying the full 35 percent rate. Barclays estimates that the “effective” tax rate — what companies actually pay — will drop from 26 percent to 20.1 percent.
Shareholders vs. investment
Joy and other analysts think that most of the money brought back from other countries will go to shareholders, rather than investment. That’s what happened in 2004, when companies were given a one-time low rate on repatriated cash as an inducement.
Opinions differ, however, when it comes to the additional profits that result from the tax cut. Many economists expect that most of those dollars will also be passed on to shareholders.
Glenn Hubbard, an economist at Columbia Business School and former top economist for President George W. Bush, says the corporate tax cut will eventually benefit workers through higher pay. That will also boost the economy and most businesses by lifting spending.
“Any way you slice it, it’s good for companies,” Hubbard said.
For much of last year, the stock market’s gains were helped by a synchronized global recovery, with economies from Europe to Asia to Latin America expanding simultaneously for the first time in a decade.
Since November, investors’ anticipation of a tax cut has pushed markets higher, said Keith Parker, an analyst at UBS.
Still, the market’s outsize return only benefits a narrow slice of the population. According to research by Edward Wolff, an economist at New York University, just 10 percent of the population owns 84 percent of the stock market’s value.
“That benefit won’t accrue to everybody, certainly,” Joy said.
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The U.S. Department of the Interior has announced plans to open up 90 percent of America’s coastal waters to oil drilling, including off California and Florida, two areas where activists have worked for years to protect marine ecosystems from oil spills.
The proposed five-year plan released Thursday is much more expansive than one issued by President Donald Trump in April last year. The Interior Department is proposing 47 possible auctions of drilling rights in nearly all parts of the U.S. continental shelf.
It is a major increase from the 11 lease sales during the Obama administration.
The draft plan would allow the sale of drilling leases in 25 of the nation’s 26 offshore planning areas, including 19 areas in the waters around Alaska, seven in the Pacific Ocean, and nine in the Atlantic Ocean.
One area considered off-limits is the waters near Alaska’s far-western Aleutian Islands, which were protected by former President George W. Bush.
“We are going to become the strongest energy superpower this world has ever known,” Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke told reporters Thursday in a conference call. “We want to grow our nation’s offshore energy industry, instead of slowly surrendering it to foreign shores. We will produce enough energy to meet our needs at home, and we will export enough energy to lead the world.”
Zinke also said in a news release Thursday that “responsibly developing our energy resources” is important to the U.S. economy and will help fund coastline conservation. He said the broad proposal is meant to kick off a “lengthy and robust” public comment period.
“Not all areas are appropriate for offshore drilling, and we will take that into consideration in the coming weeks,” he said.
The Department of the Interior is in charge of setting the start date of the 60-day public comment period.
Some critics of the proposal have already let their feelings be known.
Florida Governor Rick Scott, an ally of Trump, has already vowed to fight attempts to drill in Florida. In a statement Thursday, Scott said, “I have already asked to immediately meet with Secretary Zinke to discuss the concerns I have with this plan and the crucial need to remove Florida from consideration.”
Another Trump ally in Florida, Representative Matt Gaetz, has also said he is opposed to drilling off the Florida coast.
The administration is currently operating under the five-year plan set by the Obama administration, which covers 2017-2022. Initially, President Barack Obama had proposed drilling off the Atlantic Coast and off Alaska’s Arctic shore, but both proposals were dropped in the final plan.
Last year, Zinke took a number of steps to make it easier to lease and explore for onshore and offshore oil, including removing some safety regulations put into place after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Eleven people died in the initial explosion on the Deepwater Horizon in 2010, and the resulting oil spill — an estimated total of 4.9 billion barrels over five months — is considered the largest industrial spill in the history of the petroleum industry.
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